Article: Grading Last Year's Free Agent Pitching Market

[drjim]

So, the State of Minnesota, Hennepin County and Twins fans everywhere were defrauded then?

 

Of course they were. Every publically subsidized stadium is a massive fraud.

[Oxtung]

You are comparing extension guys to free agents. That is pretty meaningless. There is a reason guys are extended vs. allowed to hit free agency.

 

Right...because clearly those guys would have been terrible if they had chosen instead to go to free agency instead of resigning with their current team. Elite pitchers make it to free agency because they want to test the waters or because they pitch for a low budget team that cannot afford to resign them.

[drjim]

Seems pretty damning to me considering 2-3 "very good" options are pretty standard. I fail to see how this exit route is helpful. If the best you have is "we're just waiting for that one super awesome FA class when we have basically our choice of good options!"

 

I'm not, in the least bit, hopeful.

 

Perhaps we can accept the reality that free agency is more or less dead.

 

Money is best used locking up players on the roster. Most national writers have arguing this for years.

[drjim]

So that official Twins FO meme, from as recently as 2011, about being able to compete with the large market teams for talented players- now that we have a new ball park, can officially be laid to rest, then?

 

Sure they can. It will just be in the form of locking up their own guys to extensions.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You are the second person tho claim that Correia has improved the club and I wonder how exactly the Correia signing will help this team return to contention?

 

It won't... That has been my point all along. Looking at what happened in hindsight tells me that just about any move that Ryan made would have shown at best marginal improvement. And I'd argue that with the exception of somehow managing to get Liriano, Colon, and Santana, none of the other signings would have either (and this ignores other questions like whether the money was there to get all 3 and whether Liriano would still be pitching this well).

 

I said it before, and I'm not the only one, but I also think that Sanchez, Greinke, Kuroda and the other good aquisitions wouldn't have signed here for various reasons. We can look back right now and pick and choose whom Ryan should have signed, but the reality is that when we looked forward and said "sign this guy", no one got it right. Therefore, I find it pretty difficult to blame Ryan... not this time at least.

 

Interestingly enough, Ryan was in on Liriano and Saunders, though he didn't get them.

[drjim]

Right...because clearly those guys would have been terrible if they had chosen instead to go to free agency instead of resigning with their current team. Elite pitchers make it to free agency because they want to test the waters or because they pitch for a low budget team that cannot afford to resign them.

 

Sure they make free agency. But I would personally respond to free agent examples with other free agent examples to make a valid comparison and to be relatively intellectually honest.

[LaBombo]

Sure they can. It will just be in the form of locking up their own guys to extensions.

Like they did with Kubel and Cuddyer...

[John Bonnes]

I have actually done research on the 25 largest pitching contracts signed and let me say you are off base here. How about these guys?

 

Pedro Martinez: 6 seasons, 212 ERA+, 194 IP/season

Roy Halladay: 3 Seasons, 159 ERA+, 245 IP/season

Roy Oswalt: 5 seasons, 121 ERA+, 191 IP/Season

Mark Buerhle: 4 Seasons, 115 ERA+, 212 IP/Season

 

I could continue if you really wanted but what it comes down to is on average over a 5 season contract you'll get 1 injured season, 1 below average season and 3 great to elite seasons. Over the course of the contract an ERA+ of 116 with an average of 200 IP/season excluding the injured year is mean.

 

For those of you against signing an elite pitcher I have a question. What percentage of bottom of the barrel pitchers have produced an elite season? Is there a team that has gotten 3 elite seasons out of every 5 pitchers they sign?

 

If you wouldn't mind sharing your data, perhaps in a blog post, I bet a lot of us would find that interesting.

 

Thanks,

John

[TheLeviathan]

Perhaps we can accept the reality that free agency is more or less dead.

 

Money is best used locking up players on the roster. Most national writers have arguing this for years.

 

If that's your position than I think you should just post that. "FA is not an option to improve this club". Rather than mask it in all these other arguments. Personally I wouldn't shut out any avenue because there are only three ways to add to your talent, but we can agree to disagree.

 

Much of the discord happens because we are digging past layers of flimsy arguments for the real positions which have boiled down to self-defeat, omitting FA altogether, among others. Those positions may well have merit but I think their proponents hate to even say it because its quite revealing of the depths of their pessimism. That's the real irony, I hold Ryan accountable because I believe he truly can/could have improved this club and failed. Those defending him paint a very bleak picture - he can't fail ultimately because he really can't succeed.

 

what on earth could be more negative and pessimistic than that? As a fan, I can't accept that level of self defeat.

[drjim]

Like they did with Kubel and Cuddyer...

 

These are terrible examples. Corner OFs hitting their decline phase that were replaced with minimal problems.

[LaBombo]

Perhaps we can accept the reality that free agency is more or less dead.

 

Money is best used locking up players on the roster. Most national writers have arguing this for years.

When a franchise has largely failed to produce anybody worth locking up, then some, or even most, of that money needs to be spent in free agency if a team is going to keep mumbling that it's not a rebuilding year, season after dreadful season.

 

Free agency is far from dead elsewhere in the division, so it will probably come as a disappointment to Twins fans that they're essentially conceding that phase of roster construction.

[John Bonnes]

Perhaps we can accept the reality that free agency is more or less dead.

 

Money is best used locking up players on the roster. Most national writers have arguing this for years.

 

Well, I'd go with "massively inefficient." But to say it's dead implies it's not happening, and it certainly is. There was a tremendous amount spent last year on free agent pitching, and as was documented in the story, a fair amount of it ended up doing very well or at least moderatey well.

 

But I'll agree that it's massively inefficent. It is truly a "last resort" option. It is what an organization must turn to when they have failed to develop or acquire more efficient otpions, like minor league development or trades. It should be used to fill gaps.

 

Unfortunately, the Twins starting rotation was full of such gaps. And for the most part, they weren't filled. And so it looks like they'll be full of such gaps again this year.

[drjim]

If that's your position than I think you should just post that. "FA is not an option to improve this club". Rather than mask it in all these other arguments. Personally I wouldn't shut out any avenue because there are only three ways to add to your talent, but we can agree to disagree.

 

Much of the discord happens because we are digging past layers of flimsy arguments for the real positions which have boiled down to self-defeat, omitting FA altogether, among others. Those positions may well have merit but I think their proponents hate to even say it because its quite revealing of the depths of their pessimism. That's the real irony, I hold Ryan accountable because I believe he truly can/could have improved this club and failed. Those defending him paint a very bleak picture - he can't fail ultimately because he really can't succeed.

 

what on earth could be more negative and pessimistic than that? As a fan, I can't

accept that level of self defeat.

 

I personally think much of the debate comes down to the hypothetical and the real with three crappy seasons serving as the catalyst.

 

I also don't understand why you wouldn't accept the possibility there are multiple factors that impact the Twins and free agency.

[John Bonnes]

This is sounding like some GATG episodes - sides are talking past each other, but I'm not sure I can define what the disagreement is. Are we asking ourselves if free agency - especially signing higher echelon free agents - are simply a tool the Twins should never use? Or if they ever will? I think my answers would be:

 

Should they in the future?

Of course it should be available. It's risky, but there's a lot of risky moves. Retaining Mauer was risky. It seems to be foolish to rule out an option out of hand unless there is a really good reason.

 

Will they ever?

I'm not sure. Ryan sure seems to be hesitant to do so. I guess he signed Willingham, so that's something.

 

Should they have last year?

I think so. Whatever they did last year, they should try and do something different this year, because that sure didn't work.

[jokin]

Perhaps we can accept the reality that free agency is more or less dead.

Money is best used locking up players on the roster. Most national writers have arguing this for years.

 

Citation for this?

 

Your side was praising the signings of Willingham, Doumit and Carroll last year.

 

Look at how "dead" FA was for most of the rest of the Central Division in the offseason....not so much....

[Major League Ready]

Like they did with Kubel and Cuddyer...

 

There are plenty of moves I have not liked but letting Cuddyer and Kubel go are not among them. Kubel was a decent player but his retention was not all that important to this team. He had a good year last year but he is batting 241 with an OPS of 682. That’s not worth 7.5M/yr. Last year moving Cuddyer and bringing in Willingham looked genius. They got better production for considerably less money and Berrios in the compensation round. Thos year the tables have turned. Regardless, at the time, Willingham looked equivalent to Cuddyer and we acquired an important draft pick. To be fair, they might get a Berrios equivalent today if they still had Cuddeyer but it was still the right thing to do at the time.

[drjim]

When a franchise has largely failed to produce anybody worth locking up, then some, or even most, of that money needs to be spent in free agency if a team is going to keep mumbling that it's not a rebuilding year, season after dreadful season.

 

Free agency is far from dead elsewhere in the division, so it will probably come as a disappointment to Twins fans that they're essentially conceding that phase of roster construction.

 

"Dead" is obviously an exaggeration and more refers to the thought that free agency can get a team out of a down cycle. The Twins did guarantee almost $50 mil combined the last two offseasons on free agency.

 

You did identify the main Twins problem - a lack of elite talent developed recently. Free agency can't cover that.

[jokin]

"Dead" is obviously an exaggeration and more refers to the thought that free agency can get a team out of a down cycle. The Twins did guarantee almost $50 mil combined the last two offseasons on free agency.

 

You did identify the main Twins problem - a lack of elite talent developed recently. Free agency can't cover that.

 

$50M? So...... FA is not "dead", after all. We are back on the same page. Other than the fact that it hasn't been established by you if "FA can or can't get a team out of a down cycle." To many of us, using this route is just one more route in gathering talent in an effort to shorten the rebuilding phase-- and should work perfectly in the scenario that the Twins find themselves in, financially-speaking and (lack of)-talent-wise.

[Major League Ready]

Hopefully, our rookies and minor leauge talent that looks so promising will become a very solid core. If that happens, my first hope is that the organization follows the Ray's model and lock them up early. Then, with that core in place, I hope the FO will use FA to fill any holes necessary to have a true contender. Until then, I don't want to see any long-term deals until we know what holes to plug. Dempster type contracts are a good strategy. Of course, those successful guys who are aging are going to be attracted to Boston, NY, LA, Texas, etc but it's not impossible.

[TheLeviathan]

I also don't understand why you wouldn't accept the possibility there are multiple factors that impact the Twins and free agency.

 

How is that different for any other team? We're not a small market team anymore, we are above average in revenues, play in a ballpark pitchers should want to pitch in, and have a very recognizable all-star on the roster.

 

I realize a lot of things go into improving a ballclub, but I think Terry Ryan is a very competent man at his position. The bar of "improve 2012's pitching, particularly starting pitching" is an incredibly low bar for success.

 

And yet we failed it. I don't believe Ryan should be held unaccountable to that no matter what factors may have influenced things. Those are ever-present factors no matter what is happening and if we're going to excuse his failures for those, why not excuse his successes by luck, good fortune, or any number of things out of his control as well?

 

To me, it starts to boil down that Ryan is utterly irrelevant - so why defend him at all then? I guess I find the GM position more influential than to be constantly excused for successes or mistakes.

[drjim]

Citation for this?

 

Your side was praising the signings of Willingham, Doumit and Carroll last year.

 

Look at how "dead" FA was for most of the rest of the Central Division in the offseason....not so much....

 

Try google.

 

And I thought most people, regardless of "side", were in favor of those signings.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is sounding like some GATG episodes - sides are talking past each other, but I'm not sure I can define what the disagreement is. Are we asking ourselves if free agency - especially signing higher echelon free agents - are simply a tool the Twins should never use? Or if they ever will? I think my answers would be:

 

Should they in the future?

Of course it should be available. It's risky, but there's a lot of risky moves. Retaining Mauer was risky. It seems to be foolish to rule out an option out of hand unless there is a really good reason.

 

Will they ever?

I'm not sure. Ryan sure seems to be hesitant to do so. I guess he signed Willingham, so that's something.

 

Should they have last year?

I think so. Whatever they did last year, they should try and do something different this year, because that sure didn't work.

 

Most of the threads of late have devolved into arguing points that everyone thinks everyone else is arguing for.

 

To answer your questions:

 

Should they in the future? Yes, to fill in the gaps... and if the team is competitive, go out and get the top guy.

 

Will they ever? Yes, they will always use it. Will they maximize it's value? I'm not sure.

 

Should they have last year? Yes, but if top shelf talent like Sanchez wasn't interested in coming here, then go get the 1 year deals. Looking at the results from this article, I honestly don't think they could have fixed this rotation with the money they had to spend. I would also argue that baseball is clearly trying to become more like football in terms of a competitive balance. The rules are making it much harder for teams to always be good. Spending big on free agency short circuits the benefits to this, and given the wave of prospects coming up, accelerating that build isn't necessarily wise.

[LaBombo]

There are plenty of moves I have not liked but letting Cuddyer and Kubel go are not among them.

Agree for the most part. My point was that even a reinterpretation of the front office boast that Target Field revenue would make them Players in free agency as merely a reference to spending more on retaining our own free agents doesn't hold much water when the two most notable free agents since TF opened are both playing for other teams.

[drjim]

This is sounding like some GATG episodes - sides are talking past each other, but I'm not sure I can define what the disagreement is. Are we asking ourselves if free agency - especially signing higher echelon free agents - are simply a tool the Twins should never use? Or if they ever will? I think my answers would be:

 

Should they in the future?

Of course it should be available. It's risky, but there's a lot of risky moves. Retaining Mauer was risky. It seems to be foolish to rule out an option out of hand unless there is a really good reason.

 

Will they ever?

I'm not sure. Ryan sure seems to be hesitant to do so. I guess he signed Willingham, so that's something.

 

Should they have last year?

I think so. Whatever they did last year, they should try and do something different this year, because that sure didn't work.

 

I appreciate your last two points but I would add two facts.

 

The Twins have spent but it was on more bit guys. Mof course they should (and will) continue to do that.

 

Correia, while not sexy, is a top five pitcher from last years free agents. They did something productive in that realm.

 

What the Twins need is not better free agent signings, though one or two solid signings would be welcome, but in house improvement and the emergence of prospects to be competitive.

[drjim]

$50M? So...... FA is not "dead", after all. We are back on the same page. Other than the fact that it hasn't been established by you if "FA can or can't get a team out of a down cycle." To many of us, using this route is just one more route in gathering talent in an effort to shorten the rebuilding phase-- and should work perfectly in the scenario that the Twins find themselves in, financially-speaking and (lack of)-talent-wise.

 

I am aware that you think this way. I also think you are mistaken and that if the Twins followed your suggested path it would do more harm than good in the long run with the gain of a few wins in the present. Wins that may feel good now but are ultimately meaningless in the pursuit of a championship. This is a significant part of the ongoing debate.

[drjim]

How is that different for any other team? We're not a small market team anymore, we are above average in revenues, play in a ballpark pitchers should want to pitch in, and have a very recognizable all-star on the roster.

 

I realize a lot of things go into improving a ballclub, but I think Terry Ryan is a very competent man at his position. The bar of "improve 2012's pitching, particularly starting pitching" is an incredibly low bar for success.

 

And yet we failed it. I don't believe Ryan should be held unaccountable to that no matter what factors may have influenced things. Those are ever-present factors no matter what is happening and if we're going to excuse his failures for those, why not excuse his successes by luck, good fortune, or any number of things out of his control as well?

 

To me, it starts to boil down that Ryan is utterly irrelevant - so why defend him at all then? I guess I find the GM position more influential than to be constantly excused for successes or mistakes.

 

Just to clarify future debate you realize I am debating specific circumstances that are relevant to the Twins at this specific moment of the franchise. These are not general principles that apply at all times over all circumstances.

[TheLeviathan]

Just to clarify future debate you realize I am debating specific circumstances that are relevant to the Twins at this specific moment of the franchise. These are not general principles that apply at all times over all circumstances.

 

Such as what?

[Carlos Danger]

Correia, while not sexy, is a top five pitcher from last years free agents. They did something productive in that realm.

 

What the Twins need is not better free agent signings, though one or two solid signings would be welcome, but in house improvement and the emergence of prospects to be competitive.

 

I agree with this. I hated the Corriea signing when it happened, but he's been a fine stop gap guy. Pelfrey is coming around and certainly could end up being a good signing if he can keep this up for the rest of the year. They picked up one excellent prospect (Meyer) and another decent prospect (May) which could contribute as early as next year. They have Gibson and Wimmers coming back from injury. Hendricks and Worley are still relatively young and could bounce back next year. So that's 6 fairly young guys with upside competing for spots next year. My opinion on free agency is it's best used when you just need a final piece or two to add to an already good club. I don't have a problem with them "banking" money this year knowing they had too many holes to plug at once. But once they pieces start falling in place, they better spend to retain/lock up key guys.

[old nurse]

This is sounding like some GATG episodes - sides are talking past each other, but I'm not sure I can define what the disagreement is. Are we asking ourselves if free agency - especially signing higher echelon free agents - are simply a tool the Twins should never use? Or if they ever will? I think my answers would be:

 

Should they in the future?

Of course it should be available. It's risky, but there's a lot of risky moves. Retaining Mauer was risky. It seems to be foolish to rule out an option out of hand unless there is a really good reason.

 

Will they ever?

I'm not sure. Ryan sure seems to be hesitant to do so. I guess he signed Willingham, so that's something.

 

Should they have last year?

I think so. Whatever they did last year, they should try and do something different this year, because that sure didn't work.

 

In regards to people talking past each other. If we were all sitting together there would be a beter chance to come to an agreement.

 

In regards to will the Twins sign a top tier free agent. Pavano was free to go anywhere. He chose to stay. Willingham willing came here. He was not scrap heap. It depends on what is available and what the need is. god coner outfielder/1B type is generlly easier to find at a reasonable price than any other position. If money in the contract was the only factor, the process to sign would be easy. It is not. Ryan has to have a plan has to consider overspending for next year.

IsPelfrey gong from part of the problm to part of the solution. Only saw a box score.

[Oxtung]

I agree with this. I hated the Corriea signing when it happened, but he's been a fine stop gap guy. Pelfrey is coming around and certainly could end up being a good signing if he can keep this up for the rest of the year. They picked up one excellent prospect (Meyer) and another decent prospect (May) which could contribute as early as next year. They have Gibson and Wimmers coming back from injury. Hendricks and Worley are still relatively young and could bounce back next year. So that's 6 fairly young guys with upside competing for spots next year. My opinion on free agency is it's best used when you just need a final piece or two to add to an already good club. I don't have a problem with them "banking" money this year knowing they had too many holes to plug at once. But once they pieces start falling in place, they better spend to retain/lock up key guys.

 

Money saved this year does not get applied in future years. It either gets spent elsewhere within the organization or is profit for the Pohlads.