Article: Grading Last Year's Free Agent Pitching Market

[Alex]

Indeed. Raging against the hypothetical.

 

I also would say people have really unrealistic expectations on how quickly and effectively an entire rotation can be turned over. The rotation imploded in every spot in 2012. It's not going to be fixed a year later. Especially with a mediocre (at best) free agent class and few options in the upper minors. This is the mess Ryan inherited.

 

Agreed, no one should have been expecting a massive improvement (and after the offseason most weren't) but the rotation is actually worse and that with two better situations from last season: no significant injuries and a much improved up the middle defense. One would expect on those factors alone, the pitching should be better.

[TheLeviathan]

Remember when everyone said there was no way the pitching staff could be worse than last year? Remember when Ryan said it was priority number one to fix?

 

Well, it's about the same. So Ryan failed to fix something even most of the optimist said would surely be better just on luck if nothing else, but it's still as bad as it was. How is this holding him to an ideal? How, based on his own remarks, is this anything but a failure?

[howieramone1406390264]

Remember when everyone said there was no way the pitching staff could be worse than last year? Remember when Ryan said it was priority number one to fix?

 

Well, it's about the same. So Ryan failed to fix something even most of the optimist said would surely be better just on luck if nothing else, but it's still as bad as it was. How is this holding him to an ideal? How, based on his own remarks, is this anything but a failure?

Ryan would agree with you himself, but there's no need to take the ball and go home. Rebuilding is a process and mistakes are made. He's working on it as we speak, he'll be working on it this winter, and he'll be working on it in the June draft. Our job is to argue over his day by day progress ad nauseam.

[Willihammer]

I also would say people have really unrealistic expectations on how quickly and effectively an entire rotation can be turned over. The rotation imploded in every spot in 2012. It's not going to be fixed a year later.

Nobody expected Ryan to turn this rotation into the 2011 Phillies, but he could have made a better effort to bring them into respectability, instead of pinning his hopes on 4/5 guys coming off elbow surgery whose ceilings aren't very high to begin with.

 

The Orioles did it in 2012. They signed a free agent in Wei-Yin Chen, brought Miguel Gonzalez in on a minor league deal. They traded for Tommy Hunter. Not all of those moves worked out (esp. Tommy Hunter as a starter), but Dan Duquette used all avenues and showed an aggressiveness that I don't think Jr has matched and didn't do any of it at the expense of the rebuilding effort (unless you count winning more games).

 

Its actually pretty striking how closely the 2011 Orioles' rotation resembled the 2012 Twins' rotation.

 

[TABLE=width: 201]

Starting Pitching

2011 Orioles

2012 Twins

IP

881

880

ERA

5.39

5.4

K%

14.9%

14.0%

BB%

8.4%

7.4%

[/TABLE]

[Alex]

Ryan would agree with you himself, but there's no need to take the ball and go home. Rebuilding is a process and mistakes are made. He's working on it as we speak, he'll be working on it this winter, and he'll be working on it in the June draft. Our job is to argue over his day by day progress ad nauseam.

 

So far, one of the two parties is doing a better job

[howieramone1406390264]

It is not even better in 1 spot......no improvement was made, no one expected them to fix the whole thing, but they are last again.it is a self fulfilling prophecy that if you will not spend a lot, you will likely get bad results.

 

Sorry, but Hicks and Arcia are not making the team better this year. Arcia is back in the minors, and hicks cannot hit. Gibson maybe, but we lost half the year waiting to see him. As for a relief pitcher, I do not care. They have such a tiny impact.

 

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. Put me in the group that thinks the minute they put their jocks on and walked on to Target Field the Twins became a better team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

he'll be working on it this winter

Do you have confidence that TR will be successful addressing the rotation this winter? Considering last offseason, his history of FA pitching acquisitions, and the fact we will almost certainly require free agent reinforcements (3 out of 5 spots likely up for grabs, no starters immediately ready in the upper minors)?

[ThePuck]

Do you have confidence that TR will be successful addressing the rotation this winter? Considering last offseason, his history of FA pitching acquisitions, and the fact we will almost certainly require free agent reinforcements (3 out of 5 spots likely up for grabs, no starters immediately ready in the upper minors)?

 

It won't be the right time to try and nab a quality FA starter or two. It would be a waste of oh so limited funds. :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Orioles did it in 2012.

 

Chen was definitely a big piece for Baltimore, and is the type of quality free agent the Twins have not been able to land. There are potential great values on the international market, if the Twins were not completely soured by the Nishioka experience (or if that signing was not truly representative of the Twins international scouting abilities).

 

Swapping Guthrie for Jason Hammel helped -- imagine watching a pitcher improve after your club acquires him! It does happen, Twins fans!

 

Tillman (longtime prospect) and Gonzalez (out of nowhere guy) are harder to replicate... Gibson and Deduno, perhaps? Although Diamond looked like a good find for a while too...

 

An interesting study, though: worst rotations in the league every year -- did they improve the next year? How?

[PseudoSABR]

So what should Terry Ryan have done, exactly? Give up Sano for Sheilds? Sign Scott Baker? Edwin Jackson? Build an ace out of playdough?

 

Oh, he should have signed and traded for all the pitchers that ended up doing well. Duh.

[John Bonnes]

The primary goals this offseason were

1) to shore up the starting pitching for this year and

2) to shore up the starting pitching in the minors for future years.

 

But I don't think they went in that order, as seen by what Ryan traded for in two pretty big moves. #2 he made progress on (albeit less than we thought with Worley's struggles). #1 he didn't, which I think a lot of impartial observers thought at the time and which looks like is the case, given the ERAs of the starting rotations from the two years.

 

And I think howieramone is right - Ryan will probably agree with that analysis. And I'll happily accept the job of looking at it day-to-day ad nauseum.

 

Finally, yes, I think the Twins are in much the same boat as last year, albeit with more reinforcements for future years in the pipeline. But if Ryan has the same philosophy regarding free agency (or about how close his club is to competing) then it could be a pretty dismal offseason (and 2014).

 

But perhaps he learned something from this past year. Perhaps he got over sticker-shock, or perhaps others in the organization have encouraged him to be more aggressive given the record and the reaction of the fan base. To me (and there are infinite ways to read this evidence and construct a paradigm), that is the hope.

[John Bonnes]

So what should Terry Ryan have done, exactly? Oh, he should have signed and traded for all the pitchers that ended up doing well. Duh.

 

I haven't been following this thread real closely, so I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not. But I'll say this: I think the fans can expect him to use all the resources he has to make as good a team as he can. He didn't do this. He reportedly left $20 million on the table, and while $20 million doesn't go as far as it used to, that's a lot of money to not spend.

 

And yes, part of his job is to find the pitchers that ended up doing well. That doesn't mean he can't have any misses. But the problem is that he only got two guys (Correia, Pelfrey) and only one of them hit. (Or three guys, and only one hit, if you count Worley).

 

That doesn't mean he didn't try for others. We know they thought they had a good chance at Saunders. But it's akin to leaving money on the table at your fantasy draft. It's not the end of the world, but if you do that, you screwed up.

 

And I don't think you fire the guy because he had a really bad offseason. But just because I don't think he shouldn't be fired doesn't mean I shouldn't call it a pretty dismal offseason. It was. Let's hope he learned something from it for this next one, because it looks like he's going to get a "redo."

[PseudoSABR]

You're right in the abstract, John; but beyond Saunders, I'm not sure there really were other viable options on the market, given how thin the pitching class was. His strategy of casting a wide net and hoping to catch something good is flawed, but so is putting all of your resources into one pitcher (like Edwin Jackson). Again, people are measuring TR's offseason against the ideal not against the possible.

 

People like to rail against how bad starting pitching is, but when asked for what specifically they would have done, the same people go quite.

 

I think the real debate is beyond the first tier of FA pitchers (Sanchez/Grienke) is the free agent pitching class a crapshoot or not. I believe that it is, and casting a wide net is the only viable alternative to signing a top tier pitcher.

[TheLeviathan]

Ryan would agree with you himself, but there's no need to take the ball and go home. Rebuilding is a process and mistakes are made. He's working on it as we speak, he'll be working on it this winter, and he'll be working on it in the June draft. Our job is to argue over his day by day progress ad nauseam.

 

This is more acknowledgement than usual. I don't pretend the griping wuld end with more concessions like this, but it would sure fix a lot of the repetitive debates. THere should be nothing but universl agreement Ryan failed his own goals last year, goals I would imagine we all shared at some level.

 

IF we all started from here I think we'd have more mutual understanding of opposing views. we can agree to disagree and still find Ryan a fine GM. But the incessant apologizing for clear failures has to end. if this FA group was so bad, Ryan never should have set the goals he did, but there are other ways to think about it too. What is relevant is where do we go from here? in my eyes there are four general paths:

 

1. Ryan failed last season, but succeeds next offseason by bargain hunting and helps build a contender.

 

2. Ryan is (as you have argued) "happy" to keep losing big league games while we wait on prospects and has another failed offseason.

 

3. Ryan doesn't like losing but is so principled against the kinds of trades and signings that bring significant and immediate help that we not only fail next offseason but generally do so for the rest of his tenure.

 

4. Ryan realized his mistake and now intends to play with the big boys when the time is right.

 

Now you might believe 4 is the truth. I'd argue we have a significant history to back up 3. In any case, you have to acknowledge the possibility that it is true and we may be battling this problem well into when our young prospects arrive. This offseason is critical to see which of these paths we're on. I genuinely hope it is 4 - but I need to see something, ANYTHING to give me reason to believe it. It could be an awful contract (80M to Bruce Chen for all I care) but I need something to show me the willingness is there. Until then, I'm pretty convinced 3 is true, but the Twins fan in me hopes I'm wrong.

[Guest USAFChief]

You're right in the abstract, John; but beyond Saunders, I'm not sure there really were other viable options on the market, given how thin the pitching class was. His strategy of casting a wide net and hoping to catch something good is flawed, but so is putting all of your resources into one pitcher (like Edwin Jackson). Again, people are measuring TR's offseason against the ideal not against the possible.

 

People like to rail against how bad starting pitching is, but when asked for what specifically they would have done, the same people go quite.

 

I think the real debate is beyond the first tier of FA pitchers (Sanchez/Grienke) is the free agent pitching class a crapshoot or not. I believe that it is, and casting a wide net is the only viable alternative to signing a top tier pitcher.

When you set the parameters as "can only pick from the bottom tier" its pretty easy to later defend the results.

 

That doesnt address the real issue though: Why should the Twins only shop at discount stores?

[JB_Iowa]

in my eyes there are four general paths:

 

1. Ryan failed last season, but succeeds next offseason by bargain hunting and helps build a contender.

 

2. Ryan is (as you have argued) "happy" to keep losing big league games while we wait on prospects and has another failed offseason.

 

3. Ryan doesn't like losing but is so principled against the kinds of trades and signings that bring significant and immediate help that we not only fail next offseason but generally do so for the rest of his tenure.

 

Out of curiosity, is there a 4th one or did you just come up with 3??

[Mike Sixel]

I have laid out my plan a good dozen times:

 

1. Draft Appel-----he'd be in the rotation now, and be better than anyone they have. Yes, I said that at the time, before we knew Buxton would be this good, maybe.

2. Sign Greinke or the next best pitcher, throw whatever money you have to at it, they have plenty.

3. Call up Gibson day 1, not after he is "consistent".

4. Flyer on a Pelfrey or Correia, but only as your 4th option, not your first option

 

That's what I"ve typed, over and over, even though "no one ever says what they would do".

 

Ryan failed, utterly, to make the team better in 2013. I don't know how that's even up for debate. I'm not sure why people feel that others should be accepting of this. I'm not sure why he gets a pass. How many years do they have to lose 90+ games before he is accountable? Putting aside the pitching, look at the lineup they've trotted out there. Awful. I get it, some people don't like it when people rip their favorite team. But this is the third year in a row where little has improved (or nothing) at the MLB level. I'm not sure why a fan (etimology, fanatic) should not be annoyed with this.

[ThePuck]

Out of curiosity, is there a 4th one or did you just come up with 3??

 

Maybe he dropped the 4th one..

 

Moses: The Lord, the Lord Jehovah has given unto you these fifteen...

[drops one of the tablets]

Moses: Oy! Ten! Ten commandments for all to obey!

[drjim]

I have laid out my plan a good dozen times:

 

1. Draft Appel-----he'd be in the rotation now, and be better than anyone they have. Yes, I said that at the time, before we knew Buxton would be this good, maybe.

2. Sign Greinke or the next best pitcher, throw whatever money you have to at it, they have plenty.

3. Call up Gibson day 1, not after he is "consistent".

4. Flyer on a Pelfrey or Correia, but only as your 4th option, not your first option

 

That's what I"ve typed, over and over, even though "no one ever says what they would do".

 

Ryan failed, utterly, to make the team better in 2013. I don't know how that's even up for debate. I'm not sure why people feel that others should be accepting of this. I'm not sure why he gets a pass. How many years do they have to lose 90+ games before he is accountable? Putting aside the pitching, look at the lineup they've trotted out there. Awful. I get it, some people don't like it when people rip their favorite team. But this is the third year in a row where little has improved (or nothing) at the MLB level. I'm not sure why a fan (etimology, fanatic) should not be annoyed with this.

 

 

1. That is a huge leap to assume he would be up right now, much less effective.

 

2. That is a fantasy. Those guys weren't coming to tbis franchise. I think Correia is a top 5 guy from the pool.

 

3. That's fine but his nunbers would probably be Pelfrey-esque so little improvement.

 

I appreciate the plan. Skeptical it could be executed or would have made much of a difference.

[drjim]

And why do you assume everyone here is not annoyed by the performance of the team right now?

[howieramone1406390264]

Out of curiosity, is there a 4th one or did you just come up with 3??

There are 3 kinds of people in the world. Those who are good at math and those who aren't.

[drjim]

This is more acknowledgement than usual. I don't pretend the griping wuld end with more concessions like this, but it would sure fix a lot of the repetitive debates. THere should be nothing but universl agreement Ryan failed his own goals last year, goals I would imagine we all shared at some level.

 

IF we all started from here I think we'd have more mutual understanding of opposing views. we can agree to disagree and still find Ryan a fine GM. But the incessant apologizing for clear failures has to end. if this FA group was so bad, Ryan never should have set the goals he did, but there are other ways to think about it too. What is relevant is where do we go from here? in my eyes there are four general paths:

 

1. Ryan failed last season, but succeeds next offseason by bargain hunting and helps build a contender.

 

2. Ryan is (as you have argued) "happy" to keep losing big league games while we wait on prospects and has another failed offseason.

 

3. Ryan doesn't like losing but is so principled against the kinds of trades and signings that bring significant and immediate help that we not only fail next offseason but generally do so for the rest of his tenure.

 

I would absolutely agree that Ryan failed at achieving his goals. I would also respond by saying that every thing would have had to go about perfect for any kind of significant improvement in starting pitching performance.

[TheLeviathan]

Out of curiosity, is there a 4th one or did you just come up with 3??

 

My phone posted it when I hit enter to add the fourth one. Stupid technology! (Or my incompetence using it, whichever it is that is to blame)

[TheLeviathan]

And why do you assume everyone here is not annoyed by the performance of the team right now?

 

Because there have been some that have even asserted the team is "happy" with where they are?

 

I would absolutely agree that Ryan failed at achieving his goals. I would also respond by saying that every thing would have had to go about perfect for any kind of significant improvement in starting pitching performance.

 

Really? Because I thought the vast majority of us thought upgrading the putrid performance of last year was going to be relatively easy? It was an awfully, awfully low bar afterall.

[TheLeviathan]

Again, people are measuring TR's offseason against the ideal not against the possible.

 

I'd argue you're setting a pretty low level of "possible". One much, much lower than Ryan himself seemed to set.

[drjim]

Nobody expected Ryan to turn this rotation into the 2011 Phillies, but he could have made a better effort to bring them into respectability, instead of pinning his hopes on 4/5 guys coming off elbow surgery whose ceilings aren't very high to begin with.

 

The Orioles did it in 2012. They signed a free agent in Wei-Yin Chen, brought Miguel Gonzalez in on a minor league deal. They traded for Tommy Hunter. Not all of those moves worked out (esp. Tommy Hunter as a starter), but Dan Duquette used all avenues and showed an aggressiveness that I don't think Jr has matched and didn't do any of it at the expense of the rebuilding effort (unless you count winning more games).

 

Its actually pretty striking how closely the 2011 Orioles' rotation resembled the 2012 Twins' rotation.

 

My main response to this is that Ryan dod use all avenues. He traded for three guys, signed two mlb free agents, and a couple of minor league guys.

 

Obviously people wanted better mlb free agents but I personally don't think there were much better realistic options. The guys I wanted (McCarthy, Marcum) would have been worse.

[Willihammer]

Chen was definitely a big piece for Baltimore, and is the type of quality free agent the Twins have not been able to land. There are potential great values on the international market, if the Twins were not completely soured by the Nishioka experience (or if that signing was not truly representative of the Twins international scouting abilities).

 

Yeah, the scouting failed the strategy with Nishioka, I think. At least it was a serious and bold attempt to fix to a clear need. BS just picked the guy coming off a .400 BABIP-boosted batting title, and then compounded the mistake by dumping Hardy for prospects - perhaps, again, because of a failure in scouting.

 

And in fairness, I'd say the same about the Worley trade. They just happened to trade a fairly established, young MLB talent for a guy with 2 mediocre fastballs and not much else. The concept of trading our CFer for starting pitching was a good one but looks more and more like a failure due to improper talent evaluation or scouting, and not necessarily the GM's lack of aggression.

 

Speaking of Hardy though - it shows how you can trade prospects for MLB talent in "lost" seasons as part of your rebuild. At the time, JJ was only under contract through 2011, one season. That was a Dave Trombley move though, not Duquette.

[drjim]

Because there have been some that have even asserted the team is "happy" with where they are?

 

 

 

Really? Because I thought the vast majority of us thought upgrading the putrid performance of last year was going to be relatively easy? It was an awfully, awfully low bar afterall.

 

I should have said "vast majority" not "everyone". And I also think that "happy" comment was about the front office and directly contradicts what Ryan has said.

 

Your second point is certainly valid I also thought the moves made would result in an upgrade. It still very easily could. Season isn't over yet.

[JB_Iowa]

My phone posted it when I hit enter to add the fourth one. Stupid technology! (Or my incompetence using it, whichever it is that is to blame)

 

In all honesty, I wasn't being snotty. I found your post interesting and though I may not agree with all of it, I also strongly believe that TR is in the 3rd camp. I'm not sure I want him to throw big dollars away in a deliberate fashion to convince me he's not but I sure would like more reassurance than we've gotten so far.

[Willihammer]

My main response to this is that Ryan dod use all avenues. He traded for three guys, signed two mlb free agents, and a couple of minor league guys.

 

Obviously people wanted better mlb free agents but I personally don't think there were much better realistic options. The guys I wanted (McCarthy, Marcum) would have been worse.

 

I just don't buy that Ryan gave it 100% in either of the past offseasons. Where was he on Darvish or Iwakuma in 2011?

 

Why didn't he get Saunders late last offseason? That was a debacle. Its like someone broke down the door on the eve of spring training and alerted him that they weren't ready to field a MLB rotation, and Ryan's response was "who's left, Saunders? Offer him a 1 year deal and no more."

 

edit:

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Source_Twins_want_Joe_Saunders_on_1year_deal_waiting_to_hear_back012513