Article: Grading Last Year's Free Agent Pitching Market

[diehardtwinsfan]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2104-A-return-to-the-2013-FA-pitching-market-half-way-through-the-season

[Mave]

Jurrjens, recently designated for assignment, was another name that was interesting to think about over the winter.

[Jim H]

2 quibbles, Liriano received more than $1M. Pelfrey isn't listed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, for all intents and purposes, the Liriano deal was something like 2/12. The "non-guaranteed" portion was due to his non-throwing arm injury, which wasn't expected to be very serious.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also not sure about the list -- not only is Pelfrey absent, but Ervin Santana, Jake Peavy, and Colby Lewis were not free agents this past offseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Finally, I will re-post my comment that got "lost" in the blog version of this article:

 

I think a primary criticism is that the Twins self-imposed budget and short-term contract limits were unnecessary and not in the best interests of the on field product. So I would hesitate to rely much on those factors in this review.

[Brandon]

I would like to also point out that the Pelfry signing wasn't that bad as he has had 6 decent starts in a row and is pitching more at the level we would need from him. With a few more decent starts I wouldn't be opposed to the Twins signing him for next season as I do not see a bunch of pitchers knocking on the door to the majors with Meyer getting hurt this year and missing several months. I can also see Pelfry signing with KC for a 2/15 to replace Santana when he leaves as a FA.

 

As far as who I wanted the Twins to sign this offseason, I didn't do that great. I did want the Twins to get Santana, or Liriano, or Joe Sanders as a 5th SP, or Villanueva as a 5th SP to some capacity. But I really expected them to get Blanton as a 3rd and wanted them to go after Baker to a point, Edwin Jackson as a 2nd SP and Colby Lewis as a 3rd SP after recovering from the injury.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I meant to put it in my post that I grabbed all contract information off of thebaseballcube.com. I thought Liriano did 2/7 deal, but I know it also got renegotiated when he hurt himself this winter, so I'm not sure the exact amount. It also was incentive laden.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would like to also point out that the Pelfry signing wasn't that bad as he has had 6 decent starts in a row and is pitching more at the level we would need from him. With a few more decent starts I wouldn't be opposed to the Twins signing him for next season as I do not see a bunch of pitchers knocking on the door to the majors with Meyer getting hurt this year and missing several months. I can also see Pelfry signing with KC for a 2/15 to replace Santana when he leaves as a FA.

 

As far as who I wanted the Twins to sign this offseason, I didn't do that great. I did want the Twins to get Santana, or Liriano, or Joe Sanders as a 5th SP, or Villanueva as a 5th SP to some capacity. But I really expected them to get Blanton as a 3rd and wanted them to go after Baker to a point, Edwin Jackson as a 2nd SP and Colby Lewis as a 3rd SP after recovering from the injury.

 

I think most of us didn't do well. The names I heard the most (that were realistic) were Haren, Jackson, Saunders, and Marcum. One of those guys earned his salary.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Also not sure about the list -- not only is Pelfrey absent, but Ervin Santana, Jake Peavy, and Colby Lewis were not free agents this past offseason.

 

I took this off of John's list in the other thread. I didn't double check every contract, but I did check these two.

 

Baseball cube had Peavy signing a 2/29M deal for 2013-2014 seasons. I'm guessing the White Sox took care of this before he actually hit the market, so yeah, we technically had no shot there. That's one less good pitcher off the market. Lewis looks similar here with a 1/2M deal.

 

I should have looked at Santana a bit closer. The Angels executed a 13M option and then traded him to the Royals for 26 year old AAA relief pitcher Brandon Sisk. Sisk kind of looks like the Royals version of Anthony Slama. Yes, he technically wasn't on the market, but he could have been had for a song. Of note though, at 13M, that would have sucked up pretty much all of the money TR had to spend.

[TheLeviathan]

I would like to also point out that the Pelfry signing wasn't that bad as he has had 6 decent starts in a row and is pitching more at the level we would need from him. With a few more decent starts I wouldn't be opposed to the Twins signing him for next season

 

The problem is that he hasn't done us any good this year. He's been awful most of the season and if he does rebound here the last half of the season it's too late to get any value out of him and he may price himself out of where it would make sense to gamble on him again. (Considering he's never been a particularly good pitcher)

 

If this had been the intent, a TO would've been more wise.

 

In any case, this list looks like it breaks down like you'd expect over the course of on year of production - pretty easily spread out over the levels listed. Most of us got our targets wrong as far as who would've been best to sign, but I'm not sure that helps me feel any better about our offseason failing to help the big league club avoid another 90 loss season.

[beckmt]

The is the gamble of quantity over quality. Twins will have between 20-30 million to spend this year and hopefully most if not all will be on starting pitching. Might be better to spend for 1 $15 million a year guy and 1 $10 million a year guy. Getting it right will be the issue. Also the Twins have the problem of looking non competitive next year (though probably better as more of the young kids come up). Pelfrey probably would not be a bad signing depending on the price if he continues to pitch well.

[Brandon]

Pelfry has a 3.86 era in his last 7 starts. With a few more starts he'll show he's back on track. He is nothing more than a marginally better Corriea at best. He is from Kansas so I suspect he would want to either pitch here or Kansas City I would feel better (than when the Twins sign Corriea) giving him a 2 year 10-14 million to keep him next year and that would give us a rotation going into next year of:

 

Corriea

Pelfry

Dedunno

Gibson

 

Diamond

Worely

Albers

DeVries

Hendriks

Meyer

May

Hernandez

 

Hopefully we go after someone like Hughes too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Of note though, at 13M, that would have sucked up pretty much all of the money TR had to spend.

Obviously, if you accept TR's self-imposed budget of ~$15 million, and no more than 1 or maybe 2 year deals, his modest acquisitions look a lot better.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Given results so far (or lack thereof), Pelfrey would fall in the "bad" list, and Harden in the "ugly" list.

 

So TR restricted himself to spending ~$9 million on starting pitchers acquisitions this season, and so far he's got 1 mediocre pitcher, one bad pitcher, and one ugly pitcher to show for it. The mediocre guy has needed a near career-best half-season to earn his classification. Furthermore, the best recent improvement trend is for the "bad" pitcher, but the one signed beyond this season is the over-performing mediocre guy.

 

And ultimately, Twins starters are last in the league in ERA and IP again in 2013, actually with a slightly worse IP pace than last season. So TR is going to have to do this dance all over again in a few months, with no fewer questions than we had last offseason.

 

I guess if the goal was to be fairly cheap and simply "hold the line" with a last-place starting staff in 2013, TR's mission was accomplished. I'd say, at best, that ranks somewhere toward the bottom of the "mediocre" classification for GMs, arguably in the "bad" category, basically the equivalent of that Roberto Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona performance in your list (but with worse peripherals?). Throw in the Vance Worley acquisition, and TR's 2013 starting pitching grade has to border on ugly (although Meyer and May still have promise in the future, although not much likely before 2015).

[John Bonnes]

I think the original reason this list was created was to judge whether or not this free agent class of pitching was particularly "thin" - had worse results and wasn't worth signing people. A few high profile folks on the "bad" list sort of drove that perception.

 

It doesn't appear that is a fair assessment, though I think you could deduce that it was fairly mediocre so far - about a 1/3 split between the three areas. It was not as good a class as I thought during the offseason (or has not performed at that level through the first half year of their contracts) but it wasn't a bad class. If that's the reason so little was spent, then it seems to have been a misconception.

 

I'll say this - these guys were a lot more expensive this year than I thought they would be. That might have taken the Twins off guard. They might have just thought the prices were crazy, but I think that's because they failed to recognize the new norm that is going to be free agent prices with the new CBA caps in the drafts.

[ThePuck]

'Ryan’s moves doomed the 2013 Twins to another season of failure. His unwillingness to spend big money on free-agent pitchers fits with his philosophy of avoiding the kind of huge contracts that have embarrassed or hamstrung other franchises.'

 

 

Souhan: Twins' lack of pitching is on Ryan, not Gardenhire | StarTribune.com

 

On top of that, on ESPN1500 in the last day or two, apparently he came right out and said 2013 wasn't the year to spend and yet he told the season ticket holders and potential season tickets holder he'd do everything possible to truly improve the rotation. So, if he never planned to even try to improve this year's rotation, why tell them he's going to? I know, besides the fact that everyone lies so it's somehow okay. The people buying season tickets should be comforted by those kind of statement.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the original reason this list was created was to judge whether or not this free agent class of pitching was particularly "thin" - had worse results and wasn't worth signing people. A few high profile folks on the "bad" list sort of drove that perception.

 

It doesn't appear that is a fair assessment, though I think you could deduce that it was fairly mediocre so far - about a 1/3 split between the three areas. It was not as good a class as I thought during the offseason (or has not performed at that level through the first half year of their contracts) but it wasn't a bad class. If that's the reason so little was spent, then it seems to have been a misconception.

 

I'll say this - these guys were a lot more expensive this year than I thought they would be. That might have taken the Twins off guard. They might have just thought the prices were crazy, but I think that's because they failed to recognize the new norm that is going to be free agent prices with the new CBA caps in the drafts.

 

You are correct, it wasn't as thin as I thought it would be. Though on further thought, a good number of the "good" aquisitions really weren't options for various reasons. The Twins were in on Liriano, he wanted to go elsewhere. Peavy wasn't really an option, neither were Greinke and Sanchez. I doubt Lohse would have been interested in returning here too. That's half of the list, and not many people were screaming for the likes of Kuroda, Colon, and Feldman. Santana was technically a trade, though the Twins could have had him for something slightly better than Anthony Slama. When I did my 2013 blog, I think I recommended they send Slama to the Angels for Haren... It was the wrong choice clearly, but they could have done something similar to get Santana.

 

On the meciocre side, we definitely could have gotten some of those guys, but they would have been marginal upgrades, certainly not difference makers.

[Mike Sixel]

One of the worst staffs in baseball, again. It is Ryan's job to fix that, by whatever means is at his disposal. He did not. They lineup is also awful. If anything, this team is worse that last year, and again, not 1 rookie has come up from the minors and made the team better this year. All in all, 2013 is only good for being bad, and getting another early draft pick. About all they've learned is the Parmalee isn't very good. I don't think any othe question was answered.

 

We can excuse Ryan all we want, but at some point, you have to judge the quality at the MLB level. And right now, it is awful, especially the starting pitching.

 

IF Pelfrey has turned a corner, it might be too late to do the Twins any good.

[Dman]

Very nice article as this topic seem to come up in a lot of posts. I have to say I am disappointed by how few good pitchers there actually were in FA. Many of which we didn't really have a shot at getting.

 

Although I understand most of the mediocre pitchers are as good or better than what we have, I think what we need in a FA pitcher is that ace or near ace potential pitcher otherwise why not try to fill from within and hope our own guys get better.

 

I have been hard on TR about getting us a good and or very good FA pitcher as it seems we have the money to do that but finding the right guy can be troublesome. Ahhh, If only we could develop our own ace.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A number of those bad/ugly guys on the list are really of the Rich Harden lottery ticket type -- I'd give a GM extra credit for getting value out of them, but they shouldn't be considered here, it's just going to weigh any list of this type to the bad/ugly side. Major league contract should be a requirement.

[ThePuck]

One of the worst staffs in baseball, again. It is Ryan's job to fix that, by whatever means is at his disposal. He did not. They lineup is also awful. If anything, this team is worse that last year, and again, not 1 rookie has come up from the minors and made the team better this year. All in all, 2013 is only good for being bad, and getting another early draft pick. About all they've learned is the Parmalee isn't very good. I don't think any othe question was answered.

 

We can excuse Ryan all we want, but at some point, you have to judge the quality at the MLB level. And right now, it is awful, especially the starting pitching.

 

IF Pelfrey has turned a corner, it might be too late to do the Twins any good.

 

It's the worst rotation in baseball and, if it stays the course, we might be saying it's the worst MLB rotation in baseball this millenium considering all aspects of what you expect from a rotation (and, as a bonus, considering our park and division.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

and not many people were screaming for the likes of Kuroda, Colon, and Feldman.

 

So because message board posters didn't advocate for them, we don't expect Terry Ryan to notice them either?

 

I'm all for giving TR some benefit of the doubt in regards to hindsight -- injuries happen, guys emerge/regress, you can't sign everyone, etc -- but he is supposed to be a professional talent evaluator. He should be held to a little higher standard than that.

 

And he has never acquired any value in free agent starting pitchers, outside of Tewksbury in the 1990s and Kenny Rogers as a late spring training signing in 2003. Heck, prior to this year, his three most expensive starting pitcher free agents of the past decade were all dumped before completing one season with the Twins. In that regard, I guess 2013 might be an improvement for him, but it's really hard for me to look past:

 

- last in starter ERA again

- last in starter IP again

- looking to sign 2-3 more FA starters again this offseason

 

He's held the line on a last place pitching staff, that's it.

[howieramone1406390264]

One of the worst staffs in baseball, again. It is Ryan's job to fix that, by whatever means is at his disposal. He did not. They lineup is also awful. If anything, this team is worse that last year, and again, not 1 rookie has come up from the minors and made the team better this year. All in all, 2013 is only good for being bad, and getting another early draft pick. About all they've learned is the Parmalee isn't very good. I don't think any othe question was answered.

 

We can excuse Ryan all we want, but at some point, you have to judge the quality at the MLB level. And right now, it is awful, especially the starting pitching.

 

IF Pelfrey has turned a corner, it might be too late to do the Twins any good.

 

The year is far from over but I would say 4. Hicks, Pressly, Arcia, and Gibson.

[PseudoSABR]

I like this exercise. I still think too many are judging TR against the ideal as opposed to the possible. It's only in hindsight that we can say with a straight face that TR should have gone after some one like Colon.

 

For what the Twins were in the market for, it was a poor pitching class in terms of identifying value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I like this exercise. I still think too many are judging TR against the ideal as opposed to the possible. It's only in hindsight that we can say with a straight face that TR should have gone after some one like Colon.

 

For what the Twins were in the market for, it was a poor pitching class in terms of identifying value.

For what the Twins are in the market for, it's always a poor free agent class. Again, if you limit yourself to one-year deals, for at or below league-average salaries, you're never going to get much value on the free agent market. (And that's not even getting into the Twins strong preference to avoid any injury histories, positive PED tests, or "bad reputations", much less pitch-to-contact/hit-to-contact type players.)

 

And lo and behold, the Twins have never got much value on the free agent market!

[drjim]

I like this exercise. I still think too many are judging TR against the ideal as opposed to the possible. It's only in hindsight that we can say with a straight face that TR should have gone after some one like Colon.

 

For what the Twins were in the market for, it was a poor pitching class in terms of identifying value.

 

Indeed. Raging against the hypothetical.

 

I also would say people have really unrealistic expectations on how quickly and effectively an entire rotation can be turned over. The rotation imploded in every spot in 2012. It's not going to be fixed a year later. Especially with a mediocre (at best) free agent class and few options in the upper minors. This is the mess Ryan inherited.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The year is far from over but I would say 4. Hicks, Pressly, Arcia, and Gibson.

I'm pretty sure Gibson has contributed nothing so far in 2013, except hope for brighter days ahead. Pressly's contributions have mostly been mop-up duty which also isn't worth much in present-day value, and overall Arcia was well below average in his MLB time so far.

 

If the defensive numbers are true, Hicks has been a positive contributor, though.

[Mike Sixel]

It is not even better in 1 spot......no improvement was made, no one expected them to fix the whole thing, but they are last again.it is a self fulfilling prophecy that if you will not spend a lot, you will likely get bad results.

 

Sorry, but Hicks and Arcia are not making the team better this year. Arcia is back in the minors, and hicks cannot hit. Gibson maybe, but we lost half the year waiting to see him. As for a relief pitcher, I do not care. They have such a tiny impact.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Indeed. Raging against the hypothetical.

 

I also would say people have really unrealistic expectations on how quickly and effectively an entire rotation can be turned over. The rotation imploded in every spot in 2012. It's not going to be fixed a year later. Especially with a mediocre (at best) free agent class and few options in the upper minors. This is the mess Ryan inherited.

 

No doubt, it is difficult to turn over an entire rotation. How about just one spot? Ryan turned over nothing in 2013, outside of calling up Gibson (and grabbing a couple prospects for 2015+, along with what is becoming one of the most infamous Twins acquisitions of all-time, opening day starter Vance Worley).

 

I am pretty sure most posters here could have maintained the Twins rotation ERA and IP rankings from 2012 to 2013.

 

Given his free agency track record, I'm not sure I'm willing to give TR many points for simply treading water and delaying necessary acquisitions.