Reusse: Twins and timid intersect too often

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think the trades were that risky - both of those CF had pretty shaky offensive games. Neither looked like more of a long term solution than Hicks.

 

Very true, the Twins have also never had a problem plugging young players in. I think it is very important to point out that it isn't what we perceive as risky, but what the Twins perceive as risky that is at issue.

 

And I absolutely believe the Twins feel there is little risk in dealing for prospects, but feel there is significant risk in trading their own.

[Kwak]

Risk in trading Span and Revere? How many times have we heard the Twins screaming about about Buxton? Hicks was also touted--though not to the same extent as Buxton. Mastroianni (and Benson and Thomas) were also placeholders for Buxton. No! You can't claim "risky trade" and "super drafting" out of the other side of your mouth. The trades were actually risk averse--selling excess players at their peak value, in order to acquire the very much needed pitching.

[Monkeypaws]

It's very easy to take risks from the cat-bird's seat, and call anything else pantywaist, timid, cowardly, etc.

 

I'm sure TR would get some real-world heat from his employers if he went mad with REAL money and wasn't 100% spot-on in his investments.

 

This is real money folks, not Monopoly money or fantasy baseball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So does anyone really believe that, in 15 years as Twins GM, TR has been fully willing to spend big money/resources on the right player at the right time, just like 90% of other MLB organizations.... but there has just never been the right player available at the right time? Whether by free agency, trade, draft, or internationally? Or every time he has done it, he has been outbid?

[TheLeviathan]

This is real money folks, not Monopoly money or fantasy baseball.

 

I, for one, am well aware of this. After all, it starts in my pocket first.

 

So does anyone really believe that, in 15 years as Twins GM

 

My understanding from the last few months is that 16 years is the magic number where it becomes a verifiable trend. Of course, I'm sure the right to reserve it for 17, 18, 19, or whatever makes the argument work is also in play.

[Dman]

It's very easy to take risks from the cat-bird's seat, and call anything else pantywaist, timid, cowardly, etc.

 

I'm sure TR would get some real-world heat from his employers if he went mad with REAL money and wasn't 100% spot-on in his investments.

 

This is real money folks, not Monopoly money or fantasy baseball.

 

Technically it seems to me the fans are the real owners of the team because without them there is no business model to support baseball. Yes the Pohlads own the team and are welcome to take a profit but when does that profit become excessive and alienate the fans.

 

I don't know why we have to apologize for wanting the FO to spend close to break even to try and field a good team. It is not like we are asking them to lose money just to try and do what they can to field a better team. If they are just pocketing the money then I can see why some fans could see that as not trying very hard. Most of the best teams use all their available resources to field the best team possible. That is all some people are questioning. Why don't we use all the resources we have available?

[ThePuck]

Technically it seems to me the fans are the real owners of the team because without them there is no business model to support baseball. Yes the Pohlads own the team and are welcome to take a profit but when does that profit become excessive and alienate the fans.

 

I don't know why we have to apologize for wanting the FO to spend close to break even to try and field a good team. It is not like we are asking them to lose money just to try and do what they can to field a better team. If they are just pocketing the money then I can see why some fans could see that as not trying very hard. Most of the best teams use all their available resources to field the best team possible. That is all some people are questioning. Why don't we use all the resources we have available?

 

And I agree. Payroll obligations are low compared to what is available, and going to drop more after 2013 and after 2014. Our new guys that have just come up now aren't going to even be arbitration eligible till the offseason before 2017 season, and we're going to keep bringing in guys that aren't going to be arbitration eligible until after that. As a fan who wants their team to be better (I hope that's what everyone wants),if the spending isn't going to hurt us, at all, in any way, how can not spending be defended? The money is just going into the owners' pockets without even trying to improve the team. It's not going to be saved to use later. There is no negative to the Twins spending, even if the moves don't work. There's going to be much so much money available and there was very likely enough to start rolling this year. How does it help the fan for the Twins not to spend all that available money that won't hinder us in any way, in the present or future, if the contract don't work out? Boggles my mind, frankly.

[drjim]

So does anyone really believe that, in 15 years as Twins GM, TR has been fully willing to spend big money/resources on the right player at the right time, just like 90% of other MLB organizations.... but there has just never been the right player available at the right time? Whether by free agency, trade, draft, or internationally? Or every time he has done it, he has been outbid?

 

I personally wouldn't compare the previous era to the past two years, completely different scenarios. And I think two years is probably too small a sample size to make sweeping conclusions.

 

In the past two offseasons Ryan has guaranteed about $47 mil in free agent contracts (of players that were not with the Twins before signing the contract). I would wager that is at least 5x as much as he spent in his previous 13 year stint combined.

[Jim H]

Quoted from the PUCK

There is no negative to the Twins spending, even if the moves don't work. There's going to be much so much money available and there was very likely enough to start rolling this year. How does it help the fan for the Twins not to spend all that available money that won't hinder us in any way, in the present or future, if the contract don't work out? Boggles my mind, frankly

.

 

Maybe this where my thinking is different than some of you. I can't see spending a bunch of on say an Edwin Jackson if he is likely not to be any better than say Sam Deduno. Which interestingly enough he hasn't been. So you end up keeping Deduno in the minors or not resigning him at all, in order to have a place for Jackson. How does this make the Twins better? Now, I am no expert but it is not a great surprise to me that Deduno is as good or perhaps better than Jackson. I wouldn't of necessarily predicted that, but given the fact that Jackson has never pitched to his promise I don't think it is a great surprise he isn't better than Deduno.

 

This is kind of what I mean. I would be happy to see Ryan spend more money, but if spending more money doesn't gain you anything? The Twins have made plenty of poor decisions on where they have spent their money, (Nishi for example) and some have actually set the team back. I just don't agree with idea that you should spend more money just because you have it. How does signing Jackson and giving him a bunch of money for a few years help the team more than signing Pelfrey and Correia?

 

I understand that many of you want to see the Twins take bigger risks to get better. I also understand that my definition of risk is different than many of yours. We can give counter examples all day. But there are a number of teams (Toronto, Baltimore, Cubs) and others who spent a large amount of money more than the Twins every year during the last decade, with virtually nothing to show for it. You have to spend your money wisely. Taking gambles that aren't really all that likely to pay off does hurt you in the long run.

[Kwak]

Ryan gets no credit for Deduno. Ryan removed him from the 40-man roster after last year--which says "we don't see a future for you". Deduno's considerable success at the WBC (and the resulting fame) combined with the failure of Ryan's Plan A "fix" for the rotation permitted another chance for Deduno. To Deduno's credit he has shown some very strong character as well as skills to indicate that he is worthy of being in the the rotation.

[The Wise One]

As Deduno was free to sign with any team. No ther team wanted him. The 5th starter competition was wide open. Deduno was injured, else he could have won it in spring. When he got healthy, got up to strength, he was called up. How quickly people forget.

 

Others on here spend countless hours complaining the Twins don't sign free agents. There were no middle infielders worth signing other than Drew. Even with that, the best Drew could get was a one year deal.

Free agent pitching has been hashed over some many times by the detractors that the APA will have a new diagnosis for them for their persistence. The reality of the thinness of the free agent crop and Ryan being able to judge that is ignored. Yes he could not sign Sanchez. If you thought there was enough money out there to get Sanchez here, you are sadly mistaken. How much money would it take to get a person to move up to the Upper Pensilua

[howieramone1406390264]

As Deduno was free to sign with any team. No ther team wanted him. The 5th starter competition was wide open. Deduno was injured, else he could have won it in spring. When he got healthy, got up to strength, he was called up. How quickly people forget.

 

Others on here spend countless hours complaining the Twins don't sign free agents. There were no middle infielders worth signing other than Drew. Even with that, the best Drew could get was a one year deal.

Free agent pitching has been hashed over some many times by the detractors that the APA will have a new diagnosis for them for their persistence. The reality of the thinness of the free agent crop and Ryan being able to judge that is ignored. Yes he could not sign Sanchez. If you thought there was enough money out there to get Sanchez here, you are sadly mistaken. How much money would it take to get a person to move up to the Upper Pensilua

I agree. IMHO some of the detractors frustration has evolved to the point where they no longer care if the money is used to improve the Twins, as long as it doesn't go to the Pohlads.

[Riverbrian]

There were no middle infielders worth signing other than Drew. Even with that, the best Drew could get was a one year deal.

 

With all due respect... I don't think Stephen Drew belongs on a list of players worth signing. If you compare Pedro Florimon offensive stats thus far with Stephen Drew offensively in 2013... Then throw in salary, age, defense and what Stephen Drew has done in 2012 and 2011.

 

I'm going with Florimon every time.

 

I think the Red Sox would be better off with Iglasias, Bogaarts or even the DFA'd and now with the Royals Ciriaco.

 

Of course... I'm not a Stephen Drew fan... So I recognize that I may be biased.

[The Wise One]

With all due respect... I don't think Stephen Drew belongs on a list of players worth signing. If you compare Pedro Florimon offensive stats thus far with Stephen Drew offensively in 2013... Then throw in salary, age, defense and what Stephen Drew has done in 2012 and 2011.

 

I'm going with Florimon every time.

 

I think the Red Sox would be better off with Iglasias, Bogaarts or even the DFA'd and now with the Royals Ciriaco.

 

Of course... I'm not a Stephen Drew fan... So I recognize that I may be biased.

 

I do not disagree with you. Shortstop was one of the areas of need pointed out last winter. Free agency would be a way to go to fix that problem. Drew was the highest ranked available ss. Would the spend because you have it crowd noticed that there was no reeal difference in cotribution between the free agent and the scap heap player? Dozier is outplaying any of the 2b FA options. Somebody in the FO is either smart or should pick my lottery numbers for me.

[Kwak]

As Deduno was free to sign with any team. No ther team wanted him. The 5th starter competition was wide open. Deduno was injured, else he could have won it in spring. When he got healthy, got up to strength, he was called up. How quickly people forget.

 

 

Others on here spend countless hours complaining the Twins don't sign free agents. There were no middle infielders worth signing other than Drew. Even with that, the best Drew could get was a one year deal.

Free agent pitching has been hashed over some many times by the detractors that the APA will have a new diagnosis for them for their persistence. The reality of the thinness of the free agent crop and Ryan being able to judge that is ignored. Yes he could not sign Sanchez. If you thought there was enough money out there to get Sanchez here, you are sadly mistaken. How much money would it take to get a person to move up to the Upper Pensilua

 

Deduno signed with the Red Wings--not the Twins.

[The Wise One]

Deduno signed with the Red Wings--not the Twins.

 

The Twins provide the RedWings their players. They all work for the Mn Twins. They are under contract with the Twins

[John Bonnes]

The Twins provide the RedWings their players. They all work for the Mn Twins. They are under contract with the Twins

 

This is true. Of course Ryan gets credit for Deduno. We can debate if that's particularly impressive - IMHO it isn't, it's what GMs of bad teams should be able to do - but Ryan got him AND didn't use up a 40 man spot to do so.

[Oxtung]

I agree. IMHO some of the detractors frustration has evolved to the point where they no longer care if the money is used to improve the Twins, as long as it doesn't go to the Pohlads.

 

Please don't guess at other posters motivations. That is arrogant and inflammatory. I'll tell you my feelings now are the same they have been for the last 9 months. The Twins should have spent money to try to improve this ball club. Unfortunately they didn't and now we, the fans, have to deal with those consequences.

[Monkeypaws]

To me, a franchise where you are trying to address fundamental needs through free agency is an upside-down franchise, equivalent to a home with an upside-down mortgage.

 

Free agents compliment a solid fundamental roster - trying to build from the ground up with free agents is a recipe for Cubs.

 

Once the essential pieces are in place, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Meyers, then you can complement a solid roster with missing pieces.

 

The Twins are just lacking in too many areas the last few years to go there.

[glunn]

Please don't guess at other posters motivations. That is arrogant and inflammatory. I'll tell you my feelings now are the same they have been for the last 9 months. The Twins should have spent money to try to improve this ball club. Unfortunately they didn't and now we, the fans, have to deal with those consequences.

 

Howie's post began with "IMHO", which allows him some leeway. Please tone this down a notch.

[The Wise One]

Please don't guess at other posters motivations. That is arrogant and inflammatory. I'll tell you my feelings now are the same they have been for the last 9 months. The Twins should have spent money to try to improve this ball club. Unfortunately they didn't and now we, the fans, have to deal with those consequences.

 

What should have they spent the money on? Good hitting middle infielders that can field their postions? That didn't exist then, doesn't know.

You think that Grienke, Dempster, and/or Sanchez were going to come here? Pipe dream at best.

Do you think any of the other pitchers were really going to elevate the team from the depths and become a stud pitcher? Prove any of them would have taken this team to a competive level

[ThePuck]

.

 

I just don't agree with idea that you should spend more money just because you have it.

 

I don't either...that's why I've never said anything like that.

[Oxtung]

What should have they spent the money on? Good hitting middle infielders that can field their postions? That didn't exist then, doesn't know.

You think that Grienke, Dempster, and/or Sanchez were going to come here? Pipe dream at best.

Do you think any of the other pitchers were really going to elevate the team from the depths and become a stud pitcher? Prove any of them would have taken this team to a competive level

 

I'm not going another round with you Wise One. Horse. Dead. I stated my piece and nothing I say now is going to change your opinion. However, I would appreciate it if you would accurately represent the "detractor" opinion and not try and twist it to strengthen your argument. We have had this discussion often enough that you know full well why people wanted the Twins to spend money. I don't care if you agree with it or not, but please don't twist the argument to suit your viewpoint.

[TheLeviathan]

Maybe this where my thinking is different than some of you. I can't see spending a bunch of on say an Edwin Jackson if he is likely not to be any better than say Sam Deduno.

 

How about if he was better than Vance Worley? Or Scott Diamond? Or just about anyone else. Edwin Jackson has not pitched well, but he's a player with significant talent who might have pitched very well. I'm not content with guys whose ceiling is "ok". Why is it so wrong to want to aggressively pursue talented players rather than innings eaters?

 

And here is a more direct question - if the Twins fielded a roster this year that was nothing but major league minimum, scrub players (but had the same farm) - would you be happy? Would you be happy when Sano and Buxton come up that the best we can augment our talent with is the likes of Kevin Correia who, even as a pleasant surprise, has no trade value and mediocre production?

 

Is there any threshold in which you see the FO as worthy of criticism for being too cheap and too risk adverse?

[The Wise One]

I'm not going another round with you Wise One. Horse. Dead. I stated my piece and nothing I say now is going to change your opinion. However, I would appreciate it if you would accurately represent the "detractor" opinion and not try and twist it to strengthen your argument. We have had this discussion often enough that you know full well why people wanted the Twins to spend money. I don't care if you agree with it or not, but please don't twist the argument to suit your viewpoint.

 

It is not a question of wanting the Twins to spend the money or not but the realization that there was not much out there worth spending the money on. The many detractors thread after thread keep stating the Twins are cheap. They didn't spend money. On and on. Paying for a mediocre player is not going to elevate the team to contending status. It is not going to lift it to .500. So it is not twisting your argument. You can say they should have spent the money on very good players so they have a better team. That is very true. The reality the detractors choose to ignore is that where this team needed to improve in position players there were none. There were only a few of top of the rotation pitchers. So if pointing out to you that the detractor position is a weak position because of reality is twisting facts, so be it.

[jorgenswest]

The problem with signing decline phase players to multiyear contracts is that their best year going forward will be this year. By the time the Twins have a core ready to move forward, the Twins will be committed to guys in decline.

 

The Royals gambled that this was the year their core would move forward. They have committed three years to Jeremy Guthrie. In 2015, when Hosmer, Moustakis and Perez will finally be reaching their primes, they will be paying Guthrie 9 million dollars. He will have declined further, but it is too much money for a small market or even a midmarket team to discard. It just keeps the team in a cycle of mediocrity.

[John Bonnes]

It is not a question of wanting the Twins to spend the money or not but the realization that there was not much out there worth spending the money on. The many detractors thread after thread keep stating the Twins are cheap. They didn't spend money. On and on. Paying for a mediocre player is not going to elevate the team to contending status. It is not going to lift it to .500. So it is not twisting your argument. You can say they should have spent the money on very good players so they have a better team. That is very true. The reality the detractors choose to ignore is that where this team needed to improve in position players there were none. There were only a few of top of the rotation pitchers. So if pointing out to you that the detractor position is a weak position because of reality is twisting facts, so be it.

 

So it sounds like you are making two points as to why the Twins should not have spent more money this offseason:

1) There wasn't much for free agent pitching to spend money on.

2) Even if the Twins had attained pitching, their position players weren't going to be good enough to content.

 

Is that correct?

 

If so, I'll start with #2: The Twins rank 10th in runs scored per game in the AL right now at 4.10. The only team that is below them but still in the race right now is the Yankees, or maybe the Royals. The Rangers are 9th, and of course are very much in the race. Oakland is 8th. So, had the Twins known what they know now about the hitting, it would have been tough for a pitching staff to compensate.

 

(FWIW, I don't think they did know that. I think they, like most of us, thought the offense would be a little better than average. I can't think of them giving any indication that they thought their offense would be below average.)

 

A for #1...Ryan often said he thought the pitching market thin. I disagreed with him, saying more money would be spent on more pitchers, because there was more quality out there than at any point in the last five years. (So if it was "thin" it was always thin.)

 

But I don't know if that was true. At this point, I think it's fair to take a look at how all the FA pitchers are doing and see if they have underperformed as a group. That would make a great blog. Or, if someone wants to go through the list below and add ERA and notes, add an intro and conclusion. Lots of people read these threads, and we can promote something from the thread too. It might make a good story for someone wanting to try their hand at this stuff.

 

Here was the list of guys we tabbed as free agents for the Offseason Handbook. They are roughly in the order of how we would have ranked them, so the guys at the bottom of the lists we weren't sure if they would even sign:

 

Zack Greinke

Jake Peavy

Anibal Sanchez

Edwin Jackson

Hiroki Kuroda

Ryan Dempster

Kyle Lohse

Brandon McCarthy

Ervin Santana

Dan Haren

Shaun Marcum

Joe Blanton

Jeremy Guthrie

Joe Saunders*

Colby Lewis

Carl Pavano

Francisco Liriano*

Scott Feldman

Carlos Villanueva

Chris Young

Roy Oswalt

Scott Baker

Kevin Millwood

Erik Bedard*

Bartolo Colon

Kevin Correia

Derek Lowe

Jason Marquis

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Carlos Zambrano

Freddy Garcia

Jeff Francis*

Roberto Hernandez

Chien-Ming Wang

Randy Wolf*

Aaron Cook

Jamie Moyer*

Jonathan Sanchez*

Kip Wells

[old nurse]

If you could have a crystal ball to tell when the decline starts for players. Relievers age well. the guess for everyone else is just that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So it sounds like you are making two points as to why the Twins should not have spent more money this offseason:

1) There wasn't much for free agent pitching to spend money on.

2) Even if the Twins had attained pitching, their position players weren't going to be good enough to content.

 

Is that correct?

 

If so, I'll start with #2: The Twins rank 10th in runs scored per game in the AL right now at 4.10. The only team that is below them but still in the race right now is the Yankees, or maybe the Royals. The Rangers are 9th, and of course are very much in the race. Oakland is 8th. So, had the Twins known what they know now about the hitting, it would have been tough for a pitching staff to compensate.

 

(FWIW, I don't think they did know that. I think they, like most of us, thought the offense would be a little better than average. I can't think of them giving any indication that they thought their offense would be below average.)

 

A for #1...Ryan often said he thought the pitching market thin. I disagreed with him, saying more money would be spent on more pitchers, because there was more quality out there than at any point in the last five years. (So if it was "thin" it was always thin.)

 

But I don't know if that was true. At this point, I think it's fair to take a look at how all the FA pitchers are doing and see if they have underperformed as a group. That would make a great blog. Or, if someone wants to go through the list below and add ERA and notes, add an intro and conclusion. Lots of people read these threads, and we can promote something from the thread too. It might make a good story for someone wanting to try their hand at this stuff.

 

Here was the list of guys we tabbed as free agents for the Offseason Handbook. They are roughly in the order of how we would have ranked them, so the guys at the bottom of the lists we weren't sure if they would even sign:

 

Zack Greinke

Jake Peavy

Anibal Sanchez

Edwin Jackson

Hiroki Kuroda

Ryan Dempster

Kyle Lohse

Brandon McCarthy

Ervin Santana

Dan Haren

Shaun Marcum

Joe Blanton

Jeremy Guthrie

Joe Saunders*

Colby Lewis

Carl Pavano

Francisco Liriano*

Scott Feldman

Carlos Villanueva

Chris Young

Roy Oswalt

Scott Baker

Kevin Millwood

Erik Bedard*

Bartolo Colon

Kevin Correia

Derek Lowe

Jason Marquis

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Carlos Zambrano

Freddy Garcia

Jeff Francis*

Roberto Hernandez

Chien-Ming Wang

Randy Wolf*

Aaron Cook

Jamie Moyer*

Jonathan Sanchez*

Kip Wells

 

Here you go.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/2104-return-2013-fa-pitching-market-half-way-through-season.html

[Twins Daily Admin]

Awesome diehardtwins! Guys, I took that story and promoted it to the front page if you would like to continue the discussion of what Ryan should or should not have done in terms of spending money on free agent pitchers last year, let's do it there.

 

BTW, this is one of those developments that really gets me excited about Twins Daily's community. An impromptu effort to pull together some real data for analysis for the benefit of everyone. I personally like that infinitely better than watching a few people exercise their rhetorical muscles. We're stronger as a team than as individuals in this kind of effort.