Reusse: Twins and timid intersect too often

[cmb0252]

I'm a little upset that we didn't get Tseng but I won't at all be upset if we miss out on Gonzalez.

 

Twins need talent and had one of the biggest international pools to get some talent. Ryan said he is going to use it all but I believe he said that thinking we are going to get both Diaz and Tseng. Cubs out bid us on Tseng, which I consider a failure by our front office, and now we are stuck with money we aren't spending.

 

I don't get all the fuss about Gonzalez. From what I have read he doesn't have front of the rotation stuff. Not only has he not pitched much in the past two years but is surrounded by question marks. The teams the Twins are bidding against are pretty much play off teams who could use him this year which should lead to him getting his 5 year 60+ million contract. That's a lot of money for an enigma.

[nicksaviking]

I think it's pretty hard to say that's why TR quit with certainty but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility given his actions since returning to the position.

 

From my recollection, it was pretty widely believed Ryan quit because he knew he screwed the pooch on the Hunter and Santana situation.

 

However he quit, he didn't get fired so the implication would be that he wasn't comfortable dealing with the big contracts that come with big stars and did not feel he could perform the job the same way he did in the past.

 

Which begs the question, why did he come back? He still doesn't have the constitution to deal with big (lets be honest, average) contracts and big stars.

[ThePuck]

From my recollection, it was pretty widely believed Ryan quit because he knew he screwed the pooch on the Hunter and Santana situation.

 

 

That was always a possibility too. After he didn't get it done earlier with Hunter and Santana in the offseason prior to 2007, and then those two flipping out over the Castillo trade, maybe he felt the best chance for one or both of them to stay was to excuse himself. All speculation of course.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I just can't figure out why he's being so bloody cheap. Of course, he might go after a bunch of international prospects and change our minds but with every passing day I'm increasingly skeptical of that happening.

 

If you look at his record, he's pretty "old school" in that he won't do what he considers an "overpay" for anyone at anytime. I mean, he's been on the job almost 20 years (minus the Bill Smith years), and he's only once retained a player notably beyond when they hit free agency (Radke). By far his "biggest" free agent acquisition have been Willingham and Correia, then it's a bunch of cheap one-year deals and homecomings (Molitor, Steinbach).

 

Even in the draft and international markets, where he's picked up some good players, he's still very conservative. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't have gotten Buxton without the new slotting system keeping bonuses down. Smith's big splash Sano was a relative bargain, but you know TR wouldn't have been bidding for him aggressively -- even though he was a potential future All-Star for a mere $3 million bonus, less than TR paid for one year of Ramon Ortiz a couple years earlier.

 

TR is basically the old-school Calvin Griffith front office updated for the 21st century. He has his own idea of what players are worth, and it's almost certainly far less than what they would get on the open market. Although some of that "cheapness" is certainly ownership directive, by now it's pretty clear that TR is in full agreement with that strategy, or he wouldn't be back for his second go-around.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

To Reusse's larger point, I think one of my biggest concerns with Ryan taking back the GM role was that Smith was brilliantly aggressive in the international market. He went after a lot of players that his scouts liked and it was instrumental in the organization's resurgence. In particular, his decision to go heavy on Miguel Sano made up for one of Ryan's most notable mistakes in his tenure (Cabrera).

 

One hope I had was that if there was any place Ryan was going to be more aggressive spending his money it would be in trusting his international scouting. So far that hasn't been the case and I think Reusse is right to suggest that we should be demonstrating more aggressiveness.

I agree with the tenet that the Twins GM (TR or whomever it is) needs to be more aggressive, but I can't give Smith a whole lot of credit. He did make a great signing with Sano, but our Farm system and big league club were pretty shaky by the time he left. I still hold true to my assumption that TR will re-retire soon and leave the signing to the next guy.

[nicksaviking]

i agree with the tenet that the twins gm (tr or whomever it is) needs to be more aggressive, but i can't give smith a whole lot of credit. He did make a great signing with sano, but our farm system and big league club were pretty shaky by the time he left. I still hold true to my assumption that tr will re-retire soon and leave the signing to the next guy.

 

Can we get an ETA?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree with the tenet that the Twins GM (TR or whomever it is) needs to be more aggressive, but I can't give Smith a whole lot of credit. He did make a great signing with Sano, but our Farm system and big league club were pretty shaky by the time he left. I still hold true to my assumption that TR will re-retire soon and leave the signing to the next guy.

 

Actually, I'd say the exact opposite. One thing Smith did pretty well was manage the farm system and draft. He picked up Arcia (pretty sure, anyway), Sano, Gibson, and Rosario.

 

Smith's problem is that he bungled nearly every. single. move. that involved the MLB franchise, the lone exception being the Gomez/Hardy trade. Here were some of his bigger hits:

 

1. Santana for a Depleted Metro Card

2. Garza for The Jewish Defense League

3. Hardy for an Autographed Box Set of The Wire

4. Nishioka for a Crate of Hello Kitty Plushies (also, 20 bajillion Yen)

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would argue the TWins don't need any help with that. Three putrid seasons that have ranged from awful to unbearable to watch probably accomplishes more than anything Pat Reusse can write.

 

Pat Reusse columns > watching the Twins play the Yankees?

[ThePuck]

Pat Reusse columns > watching the Twins play the Yankees?

 

Pat Reusse was a lot more liked when he was writing puff pieces about the Twins. Then he was apparently credible. Somehow his credibility seems to have vanished as he starts to be critical of the team in more than just a glancing way.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm a little upset that we didn't get Tseng but I won't at all be upset if we miss out on Gonzalez.

 

Twins need talent and had one of the biggest international pools to get some talent. Ryan said he is going to use it all but I believe he said that thinking we are going to get both Diaz and Tseng. Cubs out bid us on Tseng, which I consider a failure by our front office, and now we are stuck with money we aren't spending.

 

I don't get all the fuss about Gonzalez. From what I have read he doesn't have front of the rotation stuff. Not only has he not pitched much in the past two years but is surrounded by question marks. The teams the Twins are bidding against are pretty much play off teams who could use him this year which should lead to him getting his 5 year 60+ million contract. That's a lot of money for an enigma.

 

I agree it's a lot of cash, but what is a bigger risk, handing a 5/90 deal to the next Sanchez, who will be 29/30 ish, a fairly established player, and most likely well into his decline phase when the contract ends or giving a 5/60 deal to Gonzalez who will likely finish out the contract in his peak years, but might need a bit of ML seasoning in the first year where the Twins won't be competitive anyways?

 

Also, separate question for the contract hounds, but wouldn't they technically still have his arb years/options available if they signed him? If that's the case, the contract would effectively have a mandatory 6th year option if they signed him to a five year deal. You can front load that contract with a signing bonus to make the option year more favorable.

[Alex]

I'm not sure how your first sentence isn't contradicted by your second sentence. You say everyone is low risk/high reward then say there are high risk/high reward players. Can you clear up my misunderstanding, please?

 

I meant in terms of GMs, every one of them is going to prefer low risk/high reward strategies when given an option. My point was that at best, Ryan tends to go with low risk/marginal reward, especially in FA. The Twins need someone who is willing to take bigger risks on players with higher upside than what Ryan has done so far. Mauer's contract is a great discussion point because it's not something he would likely have done or do now (though tough to know) but the Twins have gotten their money's worth so far.

[ThePuck]

I meant in terms of GMs, every one of them is going to prefer low risk/high reward strategies when given an option. My point was that at best, Ryan tends to go with low risk/marginal reward, especially in FA. The Twins need someone who is willing to take bigger risks on players with higher upside than what Ryan has done so far. Mauer's contract is a great discussion point because it's not something he would likely have done or do now (though tough to know) but the Twins have gotten their money's worth so far.

 

Thanks for the clarification. And I agree with you.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

Well we say this every year. We're still waiting for Jack Morris 2.0.

 

And Ryan did say he would spend the International money, but a lot of good that will do now. All the top prospects are long gone, now all they have to spend on is a bunch of lesser regarded players. There are not top guys awaiting paper work shenanigans.

 

It's the same approach as he takes in free agency. He thinks quantity is a better approach than quality.

 

In regards to Ryan, I think last year was simply saying what he had to say for public relations purposes while he had no intention of spending money on a lackluster group of pitchers. Looking at the possible free agents this year there are some legitimate options out there worth taking a look at. But as the consensus is on the boards, I am going to believe it when TR actually signs a quality SP as apposed to taking his word on it.

 

There are still several top prospects available. Also, our scouting department may have a different outlook on some of these top prospects compared to other teams scouts. Most of these are 16 year old kids and I can imagine not everyone sees them equal in value.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

First, it's not just Cubans. The international market extends farther out than that.

 

Second, what makes you think Ryan will pay what is necessary to give a quality above average FA MLB caliber pitcher a 3-4 year deal, or that he'll 'overpay' for any true quality FA player, much less a pitcher? That's not at all meant as snark, that's a real question. People keep backing up expectations for TR to do stuff. next year people will be saying, 'well if he doesn't do it next year I'll have a problem', and so on and so on.

 

1. I was referring to the two free agent Cubans who aren't part of the international pool. Which was what several people continued to bring up in why the Twins aren't going after Gonzalez.

 

2. I think with all the money coming off the books this offseason, possibly more with trades that may be made in the next month, TR will have the money to pursue middle of the rotation pitching (which would be our ace currently). I think TR has an idea of how he is going to put together the next winning Twins team and I think next year will be the time to begin putting together some veteran pieces. I wouldn't bet any money on TR actually doing this but mainly the available money for FA is the reason I could see it happening next offseason.

[ThePuck]

2. I think with all the money coming off the books this offseason, possibly more with trades that may be made in the next month, TR will have the money to pursue middle of the rotation pitching (which would be our ace currently).

 

He had financial flexibility this year, didn't he? How much flexibility is enough before we say, okay NOW, he better do something. Seriously, I'm honestly not trying to be snarky with you (so please don't take it that way) and you're certainly not the only one saying things like this, but how much flexibility does he need to have, specifically, for you to be up in arms over a lack of real quality talent acquired in FA?

[ThePuck]

1. I was referring to the two free agent Cubans who aren't part of the international pool. Which was what several people continued to bring up in why the Twins aren't going after Gonzalez.

 

 

I misunderstood. After reading 'For me as long as they spend money on legitimate ML pitching this offseason I am okay with not going after the Cubans.', I thought you meant all options, to include normal FA and international markets. I apologize for misunderstanding.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

He had financial flexibility this year, didn't he? How much flexibility is enough before we say, okay NOW, he better do something. Seriously, I'm honestly not trying to be snarky with you (so please don't take it that way) and you're certainly not the only one saying things like this, but how much flexibility does he need to have, specifically, for you to be up in arms over a lack of real quality talent acquired in FA?

We have beaten this horse to death in other threads. I think a majority of people on here will agree to these facts:

1. The Twins had less than 1% chance of getting Grienke or A. Sanchez without offering a Mets/Santana type deal which obviously would never happen for said pitchers

2. The rest of the FA class who got multiple year deals have not provided much value on the field this year (based on WAR numbers for arguments sake)

 

What's the point to spend money on long term contracts during a poor quality FA period when there are better FA classes coming up in the coming years?

[ThePuck]

We have beaten this horse to death in other threads. I think a majority of people on here will agree to these facts:

1. The Twins had less than 1% chance of getting Grienke or A. Sanchez without offering a Mets/Santana type deal which obviously would never happen for said pitchers

2. The rest of the FA class who got multiple year deals have not provided much value on the field this year (based on WAR numbers for arguments sake)

 

What's the point to spend money on long term contracts during a poor quality FA period when there are better FA classes coming up in the coming years?

 

This is a specific question to him about how much monetary flexibility the team needs to have have for him to be truly bothered we didn't sign a truly good pitcher, which was his argument.

 

The overall argument isn't going away, but this my post was asking what his specific ballpark number was.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

This is a specific question to him about how much monetary flexibility the team needs to have have for him to be truly bothered we didn't sign a truly good pitcher, which was his argument.

 

The overall argument isn't going away, but this my post was asking what his specific ballpark number was.

 

Gotcha. I don't have a specific number as none of us can accurately know what TR is thinking. But I would expect the Twins will have roughly 40 million available to work with (with the expectation of a maximum payroll of 90-100 million based on current revenue). I have trouble blaming TR for not fixing the rotation overnight when there weren't any viable options IMO.

 

I also think it would be wise that until I see what TR does with BOTH an expanded checkbook and a contending team a person shouldn't just assume he will treat free agency as he did when he was the GM of a small market team trying to put together a roster often in the 60-80 million range.

[ThePuck]

Gotcha. I don't have a specific number as none of us can accurately know what TR is thinking. But I would expect the Twins will have roughly 40 million available to work with (with the expectation of a maximum payroll of 90-100 million based on current revenue). I have trouble blaming TR for not fixing the rotation overnight when there weren't any viable options IMO.

 

I also think it would be wise that until I see what TR does with BOTH an expanded checkbook and a contending team a person shouldn't just assume he will treat free agency as he did when he was the GM of a small market team trying to put together a roster often in the 60-80 million range.

 

I'm not sure you need to know what TR is thinking in order to have a number you think is enough monetary flexibility to pursue quality free agents. Scenarios may differ, and like you said that horse has been whooped, but if having 20M available isn't enough to take a chance on signing quality FA, is 40M? 50M? I think some people who have no issues with spending this year have a number where they say something like, 'oh come on. I understand you don't want to just throw money away, TR, but come on, man! That's a lot of dough just sitting there not helping the team at all.'

 

As far as the second part goes, until I see otherwise, I can't be optimistic he'll take a dive into the deep-end as much as I'd like to believe he will. I want to be that guy, but I just can't. I don't see him ever 'overspending' on years and dollars to get a top notch player. There's no mystical top notch players who is going to drop into his lap over other teams outbidding him and I don't think he'll stretch too far to outbid others for top quality players even when he can. Would I love to eat some crow on that? Heck ya!

[BabyJesusBuxton]

I'm not sure you need to know what TR is thinking in order to have a number you think is enough monetary flexibility to pursue quality free agents. Scenarios may differ, and like you said that horse has been whooped, but if having 20M available isn't enough to take a chance on signing quality FA, is 40M? 50M? I think some people who have no issues with spending this year have a number where they say something like, 'oh come on. I understand you don't want to just throw money away, TR, but come on, man! That's a lot of dough just sitting there not helping the team at all.'

 

As far as the second part goes, until I see otherwise, I can't be optimistic he'll take a dive into the deep-end as much as I'd like to believe he will. I want to be that guy, but I just can't. I don't see him ever 'overspending' on years and dollars to get a top notch player. There's no mystical top notch players who is going to drop into his lap over other teams outbidding him and I don't think he'll stretch too far to outbid others for top quality players even when he can. Would I love to eat some crow on that? Heck ya!

 

Fair enough. If he doesn't make a splash this offseason I will be in that boat with you in regards to your outlook on TR's future behavior. For me the reason I still have hope is because of the overall quality of available pitching last year which IMO led to him making the trades with Span and Revere for quality prospects. I am really hoping I don't have to start ripping TR too!

[ThePuck]

Fair enough. If he doesn't make a splash this offseason I will be in that boat with you in regards to your outlook on TR's future behavior. For me the reason I still have hope is because of the overall quality of available pitching last year which IMO led to him making the trades with Span and Revere for quality prospects. I am really hoping I don't have to start ripping TR too!

 

I liked the Span and Revere trades. I thought those moves we necessary. I also liked the commitment to Hicks. Ryan has his moments and he wouldn't be a GM if he didn't. I criticize him or praise him dependent on each individual situation. I'm not sure he'll ever be the guy to make the one or two big moves to put us over the top though, even when that year comes when we're going to truly be competitive again.

[Highabove]

In February of 1991, Jack Morris signed a contract which would bring him to the last place Minnesota Twins. Morris was coming off two mediocre seasons with Detroit.

This did not stop Twins GM Andy MacPhail from making Morris the second highest paid Player in the American League and the fifth highest paid Player in all of Baseball. At the time, it could be argued that the Twins were grossly overpaying Morris. Macphail realized that overpaying a Player to fill a need may at times be necessary.

Does Ryan subscribe to this train of thought? Would there have been a 1991 Championship if Ryan was the GM?

[Mike Sixel]

In February of 1991, Jack Morris signed a contract which would bring him to the last place Minnesota Twins. Morris was coming off two mediocre seasons with Detroit.

This did not stop Twins GM Andy MacPhail from making Morris the second highest paid Player in the American League and the fifth highest paid Player in all of Baseball. At the time, it could be argued that the Twins were grossly over paying Morris. Macphail realized that overpaying a Player to fill a need may at times be necessary.

Does Ryan subscribe to this? Would there have been a 1991 Championship if Ryan was the GM?

 

no. Look at the decade they were good, with Jason Tyner and rich Becker as the DH. He had a decade to fill holes, and did not. Just ask Johan and Torii.

[Dman]

I'm not sure you need to know what TR is thinking in order to have a number you think is enough monetary flexibility to pursue quality free agents. Scenarios may differ, and like you said that horse has been whooped, but if having 20M available isn't enough to take a chance on signing quality FA, is 40M? 50M? I think some people who have no issues with spending this year have a number where they say something like, 'oh come on. I understand you don't want to just throw money away, TR, but come on, man! That's a lot of dough just sitting there not helping the team at all.'

 

As far as the second part goes, until I see otherwise, I can't be optimistic he'll take a dive into the deep-end as much as I'd like to believe he will. I want to be that guy, but I just can't. I don't see him ever 'overspending' on years and dollars to get a top notch player. There's no mystical top notch players who is going to drop into his lap over other teams outbidding him and I don't think he'll stretch too far to outbid others for top quality players even when he can. Would I love to eat some crow on that? Heck ya!

 

I don't know what BJB's number is but mine would be 40 Million. That would be my cmon take a chance number. We don't need position players as we have several on the way up. At some point you have to roll the dice on pitching for this team. The money is there and the Pohlad's are willing to spend to break even at the very least so let's go. Even if the worst you can image happens on one 15 to 20 Million per year 5 year contract there is still room to take another swing next year since you are filling so much of the roster with players that won't be paid all that much for the next four to 5 years.

 

So yes we are reaching the point where he just has to make a move or he needs to come clean with the fans or something because it is going to get embarrassing soon here.

[old nurse]

The highest number I could find for Gonzalez was speculation on a 5/60 contract. When the numbers were speculated last winter and what they came back for as the free agents signed were vastly different. Is a 5/77 contract like CJ Wilson signed reasonable. If the Twins were to do such a contract they would be wise to front load the contract from the money they didn't spend this year.

Are the Twins liking Hinjosa or Despaigne better than Gonzalez?

I know for some the answer is sign all three.

[Kobs]

Maybe with respect to the DR, but they were well ahead of the game in Venezuela.

 

Venezuela is definitely one of my favorite Caribbean nations.

[Highabove]

I'm surprise we haven't seen,

" It's easy to spend someone else's money!" or

"What right do we have telling the Pohlad's how to spend their

money!"

The Forum is evolving in a positive direction.

[bird]

Sadly, that doesn't seem like a remotely safe assumption.

 

The truly safe assumption is that our media pals will not ask the tough questions.

[Oxtung]

Gotcha. I don't have a specific number as none of us can accurately know what TR is thinking. But I would expect the Twins will have roughly 40 million available to work with (with the expectation of a maximum payroll of 90-100 million based on current revenue). I have trouble blaming TR for not fixing the rotation overnight when there weren't any viable options IMO.

 

There were 15 pitchers this last offseason available in FA that had been average or better pitchers during the three years 2010-2012. I'm not really interested in rehashing this past offseason because everybody has already made up their minds and debating further won't change anything, however, I'm curious what makes you think the 2013-2014 FA class is so much better?

 

Depending on how this trade deadline works out the Twins could have as much as $80 million in payroll flexibility. Don't forget that each team gets an additional $25 million from MLB to spend.