Article: Trading Perkins Makes Too Much Sense

[Otto von Ballpark]

Good post Brock. Let me add one thought. The Royals made 1 premature move. It appeared to all of baseball, Kansas City was finally about to successfully complete a long rebuild and they made 1 premature move.

 

It appeared to some baseball media that KC was successfully completing something. They won 72 games last year. They added something to their below-average pitching in Shields, but they also lost the only impact bat they could have added to their below-average offense. They are on a 77 win pace this year. 72 win clubs making that swap can't expect much better.

 

Now, if they had added a Shields-type in free agency while keeping Myers, that's a whole different ballgame. That's adding talent while not giving up anything in return, except a few dollars out of ownership pockets.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I had always wondered what was the Twins final offer for Cliff Lee? These posts make it sound as if Hicks was the deal-breaker--was it?

 

It will be very interesting to read Bill Smith's tell-all memoirs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It appeared to some baseball media that KC was successfully completing something. They won 72 games last year. They added something to their below-average pitching in Shields, but they also lost the only impact bat they could have added to their below-average offense. They are on a 77 win pace this year. 72 win clubs making that swap can't expect much better.

 

Now, if they had added a Shields-type in free agency while keeping Myers, that's a whole different ballgame. That's adding talent while not giving up anything in return, except a few dollars out of ownership pockets.

 

Yep. Even the Santana move was a good one, as they didn't give up much in return. Going the free agency route would have been a fine solution for Kansas City. They might not have gotten a Shields-level pitcher given their payroll restraints but they would have improved the rotation and the lineup by picking up a Tier B pitcher and slotting Myers into the lineup.

[old nurse]

I had always wondered what was the Twins final offer for Cliff Lee? These posts make it sound as if Hicks was the deal-breaker--was it?

 

They probably wanted Benson not Hicks.

All this is speculation without any basis. It is fantasy wishing of what if.

[DaveW]

They probably wanted Benson not Hicks.

All this is speculation without any basis. It is fantasy wishing of what if.

It most likely was Hicks, keep in mind at the time Hicks was the #37 prospect in all of baseball heading into 2009 and #19 heading into 2010. He was by far the top Twins prospect at the time....its not super similar since Sano is now a top 5 guy, but if you were in the same scenario then as you are now would you trade Sano for a rental?

[cmb0252]

They probably wanted Benson not Hicks.

All this is speculation without any basis. It is fantasy wishing of what if.

 

Looking back through old mlbtraderumor.com articles it showed that multiple experts pegged us as favorites for Lee because we had Wilson Ramos. Later, once bidding started to build up Hicks becomes the main target. After Lee was traded to the Rangers for a package built around Justin Smoak we trade Ramos for Capps..... We get swept in the first round and the Rangers make it to game 7 in the WS before coming up one game short.

 

Once the team becomes competitive I have no problem trading prospects to fill needs but currently it needs to be the other way around. Perkins could be the best trade chip on the market so hopefully Ryan can get a bidding war started.

[ThePuck]

Looking back through old mlbtraderumor.com articles it showed that multiple experts pegged us as favorites for Lee because we had Wilson Ramos. Later, once bidding started to build up Hicks becomes the main target. After Lee was traded to the Rangers for a package built around Justin Smoak we trade Ramos for Capps..... We get swept in the first round and the Rangers make it to game 7 in the WS before coming up one game short.

 

Once the team becomes competitive I have no problem trading prospects to fill needs but currently it needs to be the other way around. Perkins could be the best trade chip on the market so hopefully Ryan can get a bidding war started.

 

Serious question because I seriously can't remember. When was the last time we traded a prospect/prospects for an established very good player? In this instance, I mean prospects that hadn't made the show at all yet. Anyone remember when that was?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Serious question because I seriously can't remember. When was the last time we traded a prospect/prospects for an established very good player? In this instance, I mean prospects that hadn't made the show at all yet. Anyone remember when that was?

Assuming the Pavano/Cabrera/Fuentes deadline deals don't count (actually very good deals for us, highlights of Bill Smith's tenure), perhaps Luis Castillo back in 2006? Technically Travis Bowyer had pitched in 8 games for us in 2005, but that was a prospect for veteran trade, and again it worked out well.

 

John Smiley in 1992 might be the last time we've traded highly ranked prospects for an MLB veteran.

[ThePuck]

Assuming the Pavano/Cabrera/Fuentes deadline deals don't count (actually very good deals for us, highlights of Bill Smith's tenure), perhaps Luis Castillo back in 2006? Technically Travis Bowyer had pitched in 8 games for us in 2005, but that was a prospect for veteran trade, and again it worked out well.

 

John Smiley in 1992 might be the last time we've traded highly ranked prospects for an MLB veteran.

 

Thanks for the info. I see it's not something we're very keen on doing and I guess when we were a small market team with limited funding not going that route made a lot of sense, though no one strategy works 100% of the time in all situations when acquiring talent.

[Mike Sixel]

Shannon Stewart was the last trade of a prospect for a player. Big times......

[TheLeviathan]

Shannon Stewart was the last trade of a prospect for a player. Big times......

 

I'm not sure if I would count Kielty as a prospect at that point, he was already 1200 ABs into his career.

[drjim]

Isn't Tampa a good comp here? What was the last prospect they traded?

 

Small market teams don't really trade prospects*. The Twins have been a non-small market team and good for a grand total of one year. Even in that small sample they traded a prospect for an established player.

 

*the exception is Oakland which is a very uniquely run organization. I would argue their history shows that trading prospects for established players has backfired for them. They rebuilt their team by trading established players for prospects, like the rest of the small market teams.

[Kwak]

Isn't Tampa a good comp here? What was the last prospect they traded?

 

Small market teams don't really trade prospects*. The Twins have been a non-small market team and good for a grand total of one year. Even in that small sample they traded a prospect for an established player.

 

*the exception is Oakland which is a very uniquely run organization. I would argue their history shows that trading prospects for established players has backfired for them. They rebuilt their team by trading established players for prospects, like the rest of the small market teams.

The Cespedes FA signing was huge. But of course signing FAs isn't "the right way" to rebuild a team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

MLBTraderumors is saying that Baltimore is willing to move Bundy for the right return. I doubt that he'd be in play for Morneau, but I wonder if they'd consider him for Perkins...

 

Though if I remember right, he had TJ surgery this season...

[Oxtung]

MLBTraderumors is saying that Baltimore is willing to move Bundy for the right return. I doubt that he'd be in play for Morneau, but I wonder if they'd consider him for Perkins...

 

Though if I remember right, he had TJ surgery this season...

 

That is a very interesting question. Perkins isn't likely to bring back a healthy arm like Bundy's who made it from HS to the majors in just 1 season and has a fastball that sits mid 90's and touches 98-100. He was a top 10 prospect in baseball before the injury. On the other hand there is significant risk with TJ surgery and at this point Bundy is only 1 month removed from the knife.

 

Would people want the Twins to take a risk on Bundy's elite but injured arm? I think I would say yes.

[30whales]

I would take that risk in a heartbeat.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, I make that trade with no questions asked. Which means surely the Orioles would not be interested.

[Smcginnity]

MLBTraderumors is saying that Baltimore is willing to move Bundy for the right return. I doubt that he'd be in play for Morneau, but I wonder if they'd consider him for Perkins...

 

Though if I remember right, he had TJ surgery this season...

 

This is an ideal trade for the Twins. Perkins and Morneau for Bundy? We would probably have to pay Morneau's salary. Maybe they would be willing to throw in a C-level prospect like Michael Belfiore (similar to Darnell or Albers).

[kab21]

The Cespedes FA signing was huge. But of course signing FAs isn't "the right way" to rebuild a team.

 

And they are usually talking about 30 somethings signing 50+M contracts. Cespedes was more like a really expensive prospect. At the time Cespedes was mostly dismissed around here since the Twins are loaded with OF'ers. I had a bias against Cubans at the time but Cespedes and Puig have been awesome so far.

 

I would trade Perkins for Bundy in a heartbeat. I would not even think twice about. TJ is really successful nowadays and I can wait 2 years for another potential front line starter mixed in with Stewart and Meyer. One of them might reach their potential.

[cmb0252]

Jared Cross at ESPN wrote an article (insider) about which RPers teams should target. He has Perkins as the #1 RPer to target and notes the Twins should trade him not only because his value might never be higher but "even elite closers flame out quickly." Here is his data:

 

"To prove this, I gathered data on pitchers like Perkins: relievers ages 26 to 32 with a quick ERA (kwERA) below 2.30 with between 35 and 90 relief innings in the years 1974 through 2009. This pool of 38 pitcher-seasons had an average kwERA of 1.90 and an ERA of 2.13 in the qualifying year (Year 0, see table).

Reliever regression

 

[TABLE=width: 0]

[TR=bgcolor: transparent]

[TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]Year[/TH]

[TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]Innings[/TH]

[TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]ERA[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]0[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]68.9[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.13[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]1[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]62.6[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.76[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]2[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]53.5[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.83[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]3[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]46.5[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]3.06[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

As a group, their performance fell off precipitously in the next year (Year 1) as regression to the mean would dictate that it must -- simply put, those selected for extreme performances in one year will, on average, be less extreme the next year.

While their ERA decline slowed after Year 1, three years later, these pitchers were averaging one-third fewer innings with six of the 38 pitchers throwing no innings at all."

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Jared Cross at ESPN wrote an article (insider) about which RPers teams should target. He has Perkins as the #1 RPer to target and notes the Twins should trade him not only because his value might never be higher but "even elite closers flame out quickly." Here is his data:

 

"To prove this, I gathered data on pitchers like Perkins: relievers ages 26 to 32 with a quick ERA (kwERA) below 2.30 with between 35 and 90 relief innings in the years 1974 through 2009. This pool of 38 pitcher-seasons had an average kwERA of 1.90 and an ERA of 2.13 in the qualifying year (Year 0, see table).

Reliever regression

 

[TABLE=width: 0]

[TR=bgcolor: transparent]

[TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]Year[/TH]

[TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]Innings[/TH]

[TH=bgcolor: #D6D6D6, align: left]ERA[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]0[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]68.9[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.13[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]1[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]62.6[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.76[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]2[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]53.5[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]2.83[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: last, bgcolor: transparent]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]3[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]46.5[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: transparent]3.06[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

As a group, their performance fell off precipitously in the next year (Year 1) as regression to the mean would dictate that it must -- simply put, those selected for extreme performances in one year will, on average, be less extreme the next year.

While their ERA decline slowed after Year 1, three years later, these pitchers were averaging one-third fewer innings with six of the 38 pitchers throwing no innings at all."

 

 

 

Isn't the population biased when only those with a kwERA of a certain level are selected? I would suspect that any population of players performing at an elite level will always decline in future years. That happens due to regression. Cross also misses any players that might randomly have an off year but have better years in the remaining three. The other question has to be about innings pitched. Cross' selected population was all healthy. If you select any population of healthy players from any year and look at the next three years the number of innings pitched will decline. Players get injured. How did Cross factor that into his innings average?

 

I think Cross' study shows that pitchers having a very good season tend to regress. It also shows that a group of healthy players in year 0 will not all remain healthy for each of the next three seasons.

 

If Cross did the same study with the population of 30 year old closers (including pitchers who happen to be injured at age 30 but return in following years), would he find the same results.

 

I suspect that he would find that some pitchers improve. Some guys that were injured get better. I think he would also find that closers who are effective at age 30 tend to remain effective through age 33.

[Oxtung]

Isn't the population biased when only those with a kwERA of a certain level are selected? I would suspect that any population of players performing at an elite level will always decline in future years. That happens due to regression. Cross also misses any players that might randomly have an off year but have better years in the remaining three. The other question has to be about innings pitched. Cross' selected population was all healthy. If you select any population of healthy players from any year and look at the next three years the number of innings pitched will decline. Players get injured. How did Cross factor that into his innings average?

 

I think Cross' study shows that pitchers having a very good season tend to regress. It also shows that a group of healthy players in year 0 will not all remain healthy for each of the next three seasons.

 

If Cross did the same study with the population of 30 year old closers (including pitchers who happen to be injured at age 30 but return in following years), would he find the same results.

 

I suspect that he would find that some pitchers improve. Some guys that were injured get better. I think he would also find that closers who are effective at age 30 tend to remain effective through age 33.

 

I think you're looking at this all wrong. Cross isn't looking at relievers as whole, from my understanding having not read the whole piece. Instead he is stating that Perkins is elite, young and healthy currently. He is just showing that as these kinds of pitchers age there is a high probability that they will get injured or no longer be elite. He is simply using this as a way to say the Twins should strike while the iron is hot.

[cmb0252]

Isn't the population biased when only those with a kwERA of a certain level are selected? I would suspect that any population of players performing at an elite level will always decline in future years. That happens due to regression. Cross also misses any players that might randomly have an off year but have better years in the remaining three. The other question has to be about innings pitched. Cross' selected population was all healthy. If you select any population of healthy players from any year and look at the next three years the number of innings pitched will decline. Players get injured. How did Cross factor that into his innings average?

 

I think Cross' study shows that pitchers having a very good season tend to regress. It also shows that a group of healthy players in year 0 will not all remain healthy for each of the next three seasons.

 

If Cross did the same study with the population of 30 year old closers (including pitchers who happen to be injured at age 30 but return in following years), would he find the same results.

 

I suspect that he would find that some pitchers improve. Some guys that were injured get better. I think he would also find that closers who are effective at age 30 tend to remain effective through age 33.

 

While I agree this isn't a perfect model, you do a great job at interpreting the data, for looking at future value but what is? People didn't like the Onley/Fangraphs model because it wasn't specific enough. You don't like this one because it is too specific. The answer is there is no perfect model. Just data that you agree or disagree with.

[jokin]

That is a very interesting question. Perkins isn't likely to bring back a healthy arm like Bundy's who made it from HS to the majors in just 1 season and has a fastball that sits mid 90's and touches 98-100. He was a top 10 prospect in baseball before the injury. On the other hand there is significant risk with TJ surgery and at this point Bundy is only 1 month removed from the knife.

 

Would people want the Twins to take a risk on Bundy's elite but injured arm? I think I would say yes.

 

It is oft-stated these days (so I can't say for certain if it's established fact or urban myth), that TJ success rate is now at 85%. Getting a potential ace (supposedly there are only 20 true #1s in all of the major leagues), who has gotten his TJ already out of the way at age 20, sure seems like a very worthwhile risk.

 

Still, I am wondering the Orioles thinking on Bundy long-term, since they are the source for making this little tidbit of information public. They have 2 other potential top-of-the-rotation pitchers soon ready to hit the big league club for good. Hopefully it's their faith in that fact and not a lack of faith in Bundy's full recovery.

[DaveW]

If you can get Bundy you trade for him yesterday and give up anyone not named Sano or Buxton to get him...with that said....Perkins isn't going to net him.

[drjim]

If you can get Bundy you trade for him yesterday and give up anyone not named Sano or Buxton to get him...with that said....Perkins isn't going to net him.

 

Methinks the availability of Bundy is vastly overblown.

[Oxtung]

If you can get Bundy you trade for him yesterday and give up anyone not named Sano or Buxton to get him...with that said....Perkins isn't going to net him.

 

Agreed he probably couldn't even with a prospect back. Many people have stated they want a top prospect in return for Perkins and I'm just trying to hammer down what that means exactly.

[DaveW]

Methinks the availability of Bundy is vastly overblown.

 

Exactly. Also why on earth would the Orioles trade him at his "low value" point.

[kab21]

The more likely target on the Orioles is Jonathon Schoop. He has been promoted aggressively so his numbers are all over the place but he has the raw talent to 2B/SS/3B. On the O's he's never going to be a SS (Hardy and Machado) but on the Twins he could stick there possibly.