Article: Trading Perkins Makes Too Much Sense

[ThePuck]

Stupid MLB rules say a player has to be a year from the draft date to be dealt. MLB has a lot of odd rules....

 

yup

[cmb0252]

Really? My understanding was that the Astros are taking a very long view in their rebuild. Might even listen on a few Elizabethton or Cedar Rapids outfielders with upside (like Kepler). Hard to say.

 

And if Fernandez keeps representing the marlins at the all-star game then Loria is going to have some expensive Arby years to pay for. Might they listen to a trade involving Kohl Stewart?

 

This reminds me of last year when people were throwing out ridiculous trades involving Buxton right after we drafted him. A) you can't trade new draft signings for a year. why would the Marlins trade a 20 year old stud pitcher while he is still cheap? C) its never, ever, ever, getting back together...... errrr happening.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

This reminds me of last year when people were throwing out ridiculous trades involving Buxton right after we drafted him. A) you can't trade new draft signings for a year. why would the Marlins trade a 20 year old stud pitcher while he is still cheap? C) its never, ever, ever, getting back together...... errrr happening.

 

I find item C very very offensive. Is there a bylaw to outlaw TS lyrics in the forums? Could this be included in the trolling examples?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I hadn't heard that one. In my opinion, only one of those statements is foolish for a GM to make.

 

Both have been quoted in the press. Ryan has said he has fielded calls on Perkins. He's also told Perkins that he wasn't likely going to be traded.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I find item C very very offensive. Is there a bylaw to outlaw TS lyrics in the forums? Could this be included in the trolling examples?

 

Like.

[kab21]

Really? My understanding was that the Astros are taking a very long view in their rebuild. Might even listen on a few Elizabethton or Cedar Rapids outfielders with upside (like Kepler). Hard to say.

 

And if Fernandez keeps representing the marlins at the all-star game then Loria is going to have some expensive Arby years to pay for. Might they listen to a trade involving Kohl Stewart?

 

Just because a team is taking a long view doesn't mean that they will take lesser talent. Kepler is a borderline top 100 guy with good upside so he is a start.

 

Why on earth would the Marlins trade Fernandez before he even finishes his first season? Expensive arb years are 3 years away.

[Willihammer]

Why on earth would the Marlins trade Fernandez before he even finishes his first season? Expensive arb years are 3 years away.

 

Because they're the Marlins? Ok I guess its a pipe dream.

 

What about Gallardo?

[cmb0252]

Because they're the Marlins? Ok I guess its a pipe dream.

 

What about Gallardo?

 

We are 12 games back and 14 games under .500...why are we trying to trade for Gallardo or as you suggested earlier Norris? We are rebuilding.

[kab21]

Because they're the Marlins? Ok I guess its a pipe dream.

 

What about Gallardo?

 

Gallardo is a complete mess right now. Velocity and K's are way down.

[Willihammer]

We are 12 games back and 14 games under .500...why are we trying to trade for Gallardo or as you suggested earlier Norris? We are rebuilding.

 

IMO the Twins aren't so far away from contention and need to prepare themselves in the event that the position specs work out. There isn't enough pitching talent to match the positional talent in the high minors, so it makes sense to me to consider trading some of that positional talent (in the low minors if possible) for, preferably, MLB-ready pitching.

 

This team isn't the Astros. They could be competitive as soon as next season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

IMO the Twins aren't so far away from contention and need to prepare themselves in the event that the position specs work out. There isn't enough pitching talent to match the positional talent in the high minors, so it makes sense to me to consider trading some of that positional talent (in the low minors if possible) for, preferably, MLB-ready pitching.

 

This team isn't the Astros. They could be competitive as soon as next season.

 

I'd rather see the Twins keep their prospects and pursue Johnson or Hughes if they think they'll be competitive. I might feel differently if the Twins had an excess of prospects at one position but they don't... Sure, the outfield is crowded but once you factor in some of those guys bombing out of the majors, it's not so packed.

[Willihammer]

Sure, the outfield is crowded but once you factor in some of those guys bombing out of the majors, it's not so packed.

 

All the more reason to think seriously about trading them now, IMO.

 

There is of course, free agency for outfielders too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

All the more reason to think seriously about trading them now, IMO.

 

There is of course, free agency for outfielders too.

 

You never know which guys are going to bomb out so no matter the number of players, you're still dealing with the same odds of failure. Have three guys, trade one... Ends up, he's the one who actually succeeds in MLB.

 

Prospect deals just don't happen very often and it's even more difficult to pry away impact pitching out of a team's farm system unless you're giving up MLB talent in return (ie. Denard Span).

 

Think of it this way... You're the GM of a mid-market team that has a good amount of pitching in the farm system. Why would you ever trade that away? Everybody knows that pitching is the lifeblood of succeeding in baseball. Why shoot yourself in the foot like that unless you're getting back a piece that is going to help immediately (in other words, "win now" mode)?

 

If you wouldn't do a trade because it sounds stupid, chances are most GMs around baseball feel the same way about said trade.

[Willihammer]

Prospect deals just don't happen very often and it's even more difficult to pry away impact pitching out of a team's farm system unless you're giving up MLB talent in return (ie. Denard Span).

This is why I proposed the Twins pursue MLB talent, and sell prospect(s). If everyone is trying to get their hands on high ceiling prospects, specifically pitching prospects, then why aren't the Twins shopping a JO Berrios? Certainly the market is larger, the prices are higher for those guys than for a washed up Justin Morneau or a 60 IP reliever.

 

edit: I guess I shouldn't assume the Twins aren't shoppiong their specs. It is something that just isn't discussed on TD very often.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is why I proposed the Twins pursue MLB talent, and sell prospect(s). If everyone is trying to get their hands on high ceiling prospects, specifically pitching prospects, then why aren't the Twins shopping a JO Berrios? Certainly the market is larger, the prices are higher for those guys than for a washed up Justin Morneau or a 60 IP reliever.

 

edit: I guess I shouldn't assume the Twins aren't shoppiong their specs. It is something that just isn't discussed on TD very often.

 

It's way too easy to end up in a Kansas City situation if you start trading prospects for MLB talent before your team is ready to compete.

 

How much do you think that front office wants Wil Myers back right now?

[Willihammer]

It's way too easy to end up in a Kansas City situation if you start trading prospects for MLB talent before your team is ready to compete.

 

How much do you think that front office wants Wil Myers back right now?

 

Not at all? Shields is having a gigantic year.

 

The problem with the Royals isn't that trade. That was the right move, they prepared for their big specs to work out (Hosmer, Moustakas). But those specs haven't worked out. That's their problem.

 

If they had traded Hosmer and Moustakas when their stock was high, they might have a contender right now.

[ThePuck]

This is why I proposed the Twins pursue MLB talent, and sell prospect(s). If everyone is trying to get their hands on high ceiling prospects, specifically pitching prospects, then why aren't the Twins shopping a JO Berrios? Certainly the market is larger, the prices are higher for those guys than for a washed up Justin Morneau or a 60 IP reliever.

 

edit: I guess I shouldn't assume the Twins aren't shoppiong their specs. It is something that just isn't discussed on TD very often.

 

We've got the top farm system in baseball. Teams trade prospects all the time for talent. Small market teams, low revenue team and teams that are forced to have a low payroll seem to prefer trading talent for prospects. Some of those teams that fall under one or more of those three categories, are in a constant state of rebuilding until they finally go for it, like KC did this year, then they get lambasted for daring to finally try cause they thought their position players were ready.

 

We do not fall under any of those categories, yet we don't trade our prospects for MLB talent, because we value them too high. We value them that high because we aren't going to go out and get quality talent in the FA market so we hope and pray they work out. So the times they don't, and the law of averages says that happens often with all teams and their prospects, those once good trading chips that other teams valued as well, lose all value.

[nicksaviking]

It's way too easy to end up in a Kansas City situation if you start trading prospects for MLB talent before your team is ready to compete.

 

Yeah, but the other KC situation was NOT trading their prospects and watching them flame out for the better part of 2 decades.

 

I agree with you and I don't want to trade any youngsters but to be fair, both scenarios tend to produce flops and KC failed using the first scenario for a very, very long time.

 

Solution: Hold on to the prospcets and fill the holes in free agency. Seems pretty simple. The cheap youngsters balance out the free agent upgrades that generally require an overpay.

[ThePuck]

Not at all? Shields is having a gigantic year.

 

The problem with the Royals isn't that trade. That was the right move, they prepared for their big specs to work out (Hosmer, Moustakas). But those specs haven't worked out. That's their problem.

 

If they had traded Hosmer and Moustakas when their stock was high, they might have a contender right now.

 

Thank you. They did exactly what some are suggesting we do and are getting slammed by the same people for doing it. Wait to make a big move or two until we think we only need a couple pieces to make a contender. Butler, Moustakas, Perez, Cain, Gordon, Hosmer, Escobar. Young talented players expected to do well, with some experience under their belt, now make a move to address problem areas. In their case, go get pitching.

 

KC is where tehy're at now not becasue of the Myers trade, but because their position players aren't performing up to their abilities.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

Solution: Hold on to the prospcets and fill the holes in free agency. Seems pretty simple. The cheap youngsters balance out the free agent upgrades that generally require an overpay.

 

I think the use of the phrase "overpay" is being thrown out too often. Just because the price of FA players is high doesn't mean a team overpays. It is simply the market value at the given time. The price of FA is going to only increase in the next couple years with the increased revenue sharing coming in from LA/NY network money being shared.

 

I think when a team overpays would be when they sign a FA for 2 more years at a couple million higher price than any other team was willing to pay. It's hard to say a team overpaid without knowing what offers were out there.

[Nick Nelson]

KC is where tehy're at now not becasue of the Myers trade, but because their position players aren't performing up to their abilities.

A cautionary tale indeed. Kansas City's big moves have actually worked out quite well; Shields has been incredible and Santana has also been fantastic. Their pitching staff is massively improved. Yet all those young hitters that they expected to power their offense have collectively fizzled.

 

With so many people simply assuming that the Twins will make a few big moves when the time is right to build around an upcoming core that will surely lead them back to contention, it's worth thinking about.

 

That's always been my issue with this whole notion of making no effort to compete during the rebuilding process. You're forcing the fans to go through 3-4 years of hopeless misery with no guaranteed payoff down the road.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not at all? Shields is having a gigantic year.

 

The problem with the Royals isn't that trade. That was the right move, they prepared for their big specs to work out (Hosmer, Moustakas). But those specs haven't worked out. That's their problem.

 

If they had traded Hosmer and Moustakas when their stock was high, they might have a contender right now.

 

If I was Dayton Moore, I'd spend large portions of my day yearning to have Wil Myers back in the system. They gave up seven years of Myers for a guy who, while pitching well for them, is gone after next season. They have effectively wasted 50% of Shields' performance already and may have closed their window of contention entirely.

 

That's the problem with trading prospects before the team is ready. Yeah, they could have traded either Hosmer or Moustakas but that brings us right back to my earlier point... If you think you have enough prospects, you don't. One or more of them will fail. In this case, those two who are struggling are the ones the Royals happened to keep.

 

A prudent GM would have stayed the course, waited for the emergence of Hosmer, Moustakas, and/or Myers and then they would have made a move. I said that immediately after the Shields trade happened and it's playing out exactly how I saw it happening.

 

And that's the difference between a guy like Moore and a guy like Huntington, who easily could have been caught up in the desire to win in 2012 and traded away the farm... Immediately before the Pirates collapsed. Instead, he stayed his course, make some smart pick-ups in the offseason, and now the Pirates look to contend for a long time, not 1-2 years if everything pans out perfectly for them. Because of Huntington's prudence, the Pirates can weather a bad break or two and stay afloat whereas the Royals are showing that impatience can lead to disaster (it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Royals in full "rebuild mode" again in 3-4 years because of this Shields trade).

[kab21]

IMO the Twins aren't so far away from contention and need to prepare themselves in the event that the position specs work out. There isn't enough pitching talent to match the positional talent in the high minors, so it makes sense to me to consider trading some of that positional talent (in the low minors if possible) for, preferably, MLB-ready pitching.

 

This team isn't the Astros. They could be competitive as soon as next season.

 

Are you talking about the team that is 14 games under .500 with the 5th worst record?

 

This team will rebound but it will be when the prospects start contributing. Trading them away is not a good idea.

[Willihammer]

Brock you are comparing two franchises that haven't been relevant for 20 years. I think, in terms of a general strategy with developing specs, "staying the course" was exactly the wrong move in both cases for the majority of that time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A cautionary tale indeed. Kansas City's big moves have actually worked out quite well; Shields has been incredible and Santana has also been fantastic. Their pitching staff is massively improved. Yet all those young hitters that they expected to power their offense have collectively fizzled.

 

With so many people simply assuming that the Twins will make a few big moves when the time is right to build around an upcoming core that will surely lead them back to contention, it's worth thinking about.

 

That's always been my issue with this whole notion of making no effort to compete during the rebuilding process. You're forcing the fans to go through 3-4 years of hopeless misery with no guaranteed payoff down the road.

 

Their offense wouldn't be struggling as much if they had Myers in the lineup. That's my point. It was a bad risk to gamble on a jump forward from a prospect core while you trade away a key component that gives you wiggle room should one of the other prospects fail.

 

Sure, Shields is pitching great. That's fantastic. Too bad that he's gone in 14 months and they gave away seven years of a guy to throw all those wasted innings on the way to a 78 win season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock you are comparing two franchises that haven't been relevant for 20 years. I think, in terms of a general strategy with developing specs, "staying the course" was exactly the wrong move in both cases for the majority of that time.

 

Huntington had nothing to do with the Pirates' past failures.

[Willihammer]

This team will rebound but it will be when the prospects start contributing. Trading them away is not a good idea.

 

If they start contributing. Not when. That's the whole thing. JO Berrios could wind up to be the next Sandy Koufax. Or Adam Johnson. The only thing that's guaranteed about them is that there will be a significant waiting period before we know for sure.

 

There are good arguments to be made on both sides, I appreciate that.

[Nick Nelson]

Their offense wouldn't be struggling as much if they had Myers in the lineup. That's my point. It was a bad risk to gamble on a jump forward from a prospect core while you trade away a key component that gives you wiggle room should one of the other prospects fail.

 

Sure, Shields is pitching great. That's fantastic. Too bad that he's gone in 14 months and they gave away seven years of a guy to throw all those wasted innings on the way to a 78 win season.

Myers has a .735 OPS. It's a huge stretch to think his presence was going to turn around their scuffling offense. And without Shields their pitching staff would be pretty mediocre too.

 

Look, I wasn't a fan of the trade and it's not something I would have done. But it's easy to keep saying, "Let's hold onto these prospects and wait until the time is right." The Royals have been saying that for like 20 years. And frankly it's an example that scares me when it comes to the Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

Their offense wouldn't be struggling as much if they had Myers in the lineup.

 

One guy wasn't going to fix 3-4 integral young pieces under-performing.

[ThePuck]

Based on pretty reasonable expectations, KC has Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Perez, Escobar all under-performing. Even Gordon somewhat. That's 7 young pieces to build around and all underperforming. I doubt anyone could see that coming. It's unfortunate, but going for it was the right move. If Myers becomes a superstar, that's good, but you don't get a guy like Shields, an established ace, for nothing.