2013 Trade Deadline

[ThePuck]

That is impossible to defend. Iftrue that kind of passivity is unacceptable.

 

You think that's IMPOSSIBLE to defend..just wait :-)

[ThePuck]

A tweet from Darren Wolfson shows exactly why Ryan never gets anything done at the trade deadline:

 

Ryan admitted he only started making a lot of calls in the last 24-48 hours. He's more a phone call taker. Should've changed this year.

 

I wish I could say I was surprised.

[drjim]

You didn't have to trade him at the deadline, you could also have traded him in December.

 

“He’s a power righthanded bat that any contender could stick right in the middle of their lineup and get outstanding production,” said one National League GM. “You’d have to give something up, but he’d be worth the expenditure. He can really hit.”

 

Here's the latest on Philadelphia's offseason dealings, courtesy of CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury...

 

• Before the Phillies acquired Ben Revere from the Twins, they attempted to also getJosh Willingham in either the same trade package or in a separate deal.
  

 

Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere and Josh Willingham.

 

Despite several teams being interested, the Twins feel strongly about holding onto 33-year-old outfielder Josh Willingham, who enters the second year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

 

The Twins could perhaps trade Willingham for a minor leaguer with upside (see: Span-for-Meyers), but that would mean throwing in the towel for 2013.

 

The Twins don't want to trade Josh Willingham but there are multiple teams interested in the leftfielder, according to Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter).

 

Mariners Seek Controllable Hitters

 

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 29, 2012 at 2:35pm CST]

2:35pm: The Mariners are trying hard to obtain Brandon Belt, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs reports (on Twitter).

1:32pm: Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik is looking to acquire hitters who could contribute for the next two or three seasons, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports. The Mariners aim to improve an offense that currently ranks last in the American League with just 3.9 runs per game.

The Mariners are more focused on players such as Josh Willingham and Allen Craig than players like Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence. Choo and Pence are eligible for free agency after the 2013 season, while Willingham is under contract through 2014 and Craig won't even be arbitration eligible before the 2013-14 offseason.

 

The Dodgers have also talked about the possibility of acquiring Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham of the Twins, Knobler reports.

 

 

• The Twins don’t seem interested in trading Josh Willingham, but a long list of teams would have interest if Minnesota makes the outfielder available.
  

 

 

• The Twins haven’t put Josh Willingham on the trade market yet, but he’s in high demand, Morosi reports (on Twitter).
  

 

• The Twins haven't made Josh Willingham off-limits to other teams, but they aren't shopping him, Phil Mackey and Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com report. Willingham, who's in the first year of a three-year, $21MM contract, is "definitely" Minnesota's most valuable trade chip, 1500ESPN.com reports. However, the Twins are enjoying Willingham's production and would prefer not to trade a player so early in a multiyear contract.
  

 

• Teams have checked in on Josh Willingham but have been told that he isn't available. Some believe this could change but others believe Twins GM Terry Ryan "is, generally speaking, conservative with in-season deals" so the Twins could hold onto their slugger.
  

All from:

Josh Willingham Rumors: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

The list goes on and on with well knows media members with good sources claiming there was plenty of interest in Willingham, both at the deadline and in December.

 

I still wonder what he would have gotten at that point. I don't doubt teams would be interested

[The Wise One]

We have a worse record now after 103 games than we did in 2011 when we lost 99 games.

We are better than we were last year after 103 games...by one game...

It's a mirage that this season is going better than our last two....[/QUO

Do the Twins have a similar number of games against quality/poor opponents as in 2011. Simple analysis can lead to misleading conclusions

[cmb0252]

From ESPN's Jim Bowden's article where he graded the GMs at the dead line:

Ryan stubbornly refused to trade hometown boy Glen Perkins, which was probably a mistake for this rebuilding club. And the Twins' inability to eat salary is why Justin Morneau didn't get moved to a club like the Orioles. They were way too quiet considering how much improvement they need.

 

I almost never agree with Bowden, like ever, be he nailed it. Link:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=7271

[ThePuck]

From ESPN's Jim Bowden's article where he graded the GMs at the dead line:

Ryan stubbornly refused to trade hometown boy Glen Perkins, which was probably a mistake for this rebuilding club. And the Twins' inability to eat salary is why Justin Morneau didn't get moved to a club like the Orioles. They were way too quiet considering how much improvement they need.

 

I almost never agree with Bowden, like ever, be he nailed it. Link:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=7271

 

Stark listed the Twins in the 'other losers' category. He said: 'Twins ("They would have gotten incredible value for Glen Perkins")'

[ThePuck]

From ESPN's Jim Bowden's article where he graded the GMs at the dead line:

Ryan stubbornly refused to trade hometown boy Glen Perkins, which was probably a mistake for this rebuilding club. And the Twins' inability to eat salary is why Justin Morneau didn't get moved to a club like the Orioles. They were way too quiet considering how much improvement they need.

 

I almost never agree with Bowden, like ever, be he nailed it. Link:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=7271

 

Sometimes I wish I was an insider..was that all he said?

[The Wise One]

You didn't have to trade him at the deadline, you could also have traded him in December.

 

“He’s a power righthanded bat that any contender could stick right in the middle of their lineup and get outstanding production,” said one National League GM. “You’d have to give something up, but he’d be worth the expenditure. He can really hit.”

 

Here's the latest on Philadelphia's offseason dealings, courtesy of CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury...

 

• Before the Phillies acquired Ben Revere from the Twins, they attempted to also getJosh Willingham in either the same trade package or in a separate deal.
  

 

Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere and Josh Willingham.

 

Despite several teams being interested, the Twins feel strongly about holding onto 33-year-old outfielder Josh Willingham, who enters the second year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

 

The Twins could perhaps trade Willingham for a minor leaguer with upside (see: Span-for-Meyers), but that would mean throwing in the towel for 2013.

 

The Twins don't want to trade Josh Willingham but there are multiple teams interested in the leftfielder, according to Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter).

 

Mariners Seek Controllable Hitters

 

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 29, 2012 at 2:35pm CST]

2:35pm: The Mariners are trying hard to obtain Brandon Belt, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs reports (on Twitter).

1:32pm: Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik is looking to acquire hitters who could contribute for the next two or three seasons, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports. The Mariners aim to improve an offense that currently ranks last in the American League with just 3.9 runs per game.

The Mariners are more focused on players such as Josh Willingham and Allen Craig than players like Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence. Choo and Pence are eligible for free agency after the 2013 season, while Willingham is under contract through 2014 and Craig won't even be arbitration eligible before the 2013-14 offseason.

 

The Dodgers have also talked about the possibility of acquiring Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham of the Twins, Knobler reports.

 

 

• The Twins don’t seem interested in trading Josh Willingham, but a long list of teams would have interest if Minnesota makes the outfielder available.
  

 

 

• The Twins haven’t put Josh Willingham on the trade market yet, but he’s in high demand, Morosi reports (on Twitter).
  

 

• The Twins haven't made Josh Willingham off-limits to other teams, but they aren't shopping him, Phil Mackey and Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com report. Willingham, who's in the first year of a three-year, $21MM contract, is "definitely" Minnesota's most valuable trade chip, 1500ESPN.com reports. However, the Twins are enjoying Willingham's production and would prefer not to trade a player so early in a multiyear contract.
  

 

• Teams have checked in on Josh Willingham but have been told that he isn't available. Some believe this could change but others believe Twins GM Terry Ryan "is, generally speaking, conservative with in-season deals" so the Twins could hold onto their slugger.
  

All from:

Josh Willingham Rumors: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

The list goes on and on with well knows media members with good sources claiming there was plenty of interest in Willingham, both at the deadline and in December.

 

If the team trade Willingham with no clear plan for replacement how lit up is this board? Go sign a free agent? Yup, that net would suck. You could only trade 2/3 of your starting outfield. The offer for Revere would have been better than the offer for Willingham. Of course the people reporting that there were offers have no specifics on the offers. Imagine that.

[Oxtung]

We have a worse record now after 103 games than we did in 2011 when we lost 99 games.

We are better than we were last year after 103 games...by one game...

It's a mirage that this season is going better than our last two....[/QUOte]

Do the Twins have a similar number of games against quality/poor opponents as in 2011. Simple analysis can lead to misleading conclusions

 

According to ESPN's SoS analysis:

 

2011: .503

2012: .500

2013: .505

 

So relatively comparable to this point.

[ThePuck]

According to ESPN's SoS analysis:

 

2011: .503

2012: .500

2013: .505

 

So relatively comparable to this point.

 

I guess I shouldn't be surprised someone asked for a thesis on my 'simple' statement...because it's a 'negative post'. Truth hurts I guess :-)

 

Thanks for posting the info.

[The Wise One]

From ESPN's Jim Bowden's article where he graded the GMs at the dead line:

Ryan stubbornly refused to trade hometown boy Glen Perkins, which was probably a mistake for this rebuilding club. And the Twins' inability to eat salary is why Justin Morneau didn't get moved to a club like the Orioles. They were way too quiet considering how much improvement they need.

 

I almost never agree with Bowden, like ever, be he nailed it. Link:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=7271

 

Pay 4.5 million for what? A less than C prospect? An A prospect. You have no clue as to what was offered. Do you think the organization should pay that much money to get a prospect the equivalent of Marty Popham? When buying a prospect, it should be worth the money.

[cmb0252]

Sometimes I wish I was an insider..was that all he said?

 

Yeah, that's all he said. You know if Bowden said your GM did bad, he did bad. Holding onto Willingham last year in a weak hitters market and Perkins this year in a weak RPer market. If you can't get a good offer is one thing, but being passive/telling people you are not trading them is another.

 

(P.S. usually around Xmas insider goes on sale cheap. The past two years I have spent $15 and $10 bucks on it).

[ThePuck]

Yeah, that's all he said. You know if Bowden said your GM did bad, he did bad. Holding onto Willingham last year in a weak hitters market and Perkins this year in a weak RPer market. If you can't get a good offer is one thing, but being passive/telling people you are not trading them is another.

 

(P.S. usually around Xmas insider goes on sale cheap. The past two years I have spent $15 and $10 bucks on it).

 

Thanks for the info :-)

[cmb0252]

Pay 4.5 million for what? A less than C prospect? An A prospect. You have no clue as to what was offered. Do you think the organization should pay that much money to get a prospect the equivalent of Marty Popham? When buying a prospect, it should be worth the money.

 

I never claimed to know what was offered. I was just pushing forward what Bowden said. Also, multiple sources have come out and said Ryan wasn't willing to eat much, if any, of Morny's salary even though the owners of the team have said we are under budget.

[The Wise One]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised someone asked for a thesis on my 'simple' statement...because it's a 'negative post'.

FTFY Truth will st you free:-)

 

Thanks for posting the info.

 

No, it was a question. It is not a matter of truth in regards to the Twins as not trusting your analysis. You have used whatever single stat in the past to suit your purpose in propmoting a point regardless of situation.

[ThePuck]

No, it was a question. It is not a matter of truth in regards to the Twins as not trusting your analysis. You have used whatever single stat in the past to suit your purpose in propmoting a point regardless of situation.

 

It doesn't matter to me if you trust my analysis or not. Not every single post needs a dissertation. If you question the conclusion of someone's post, do the work yourself and counter it instead of making SA comments to them.

 

But since every post needs a dissertation, start asking it from everyone, including 'positive' posts. And, um, starting doing it yourself as well.

[TheLeviathan]

Do people not undrrstand Morneau's salary is sunk cost? It is utterly irrelevant if the prospect is "worth it".

[Mike Sixel]

No, people do not understand sunk cost. I wonder why ESPN hired all those negative writers.

[drjim]

Do people not undrrstand Morneau's salary is sunk cost? It is utterly irrelevant if the prospect is "worth it".

 

I think sunk cost is being used incorrectly here. If the alternatives are to dump him (and his salary) for a minor league roster filler vs. keep him on the roster, an argument can be made to just keep him (he's not exactly blocking any 1B prospects right now). This has nothing to do with sunk cost. Terry Ryan can just as easily dump him in August.

 

My take reading between the lines is Terry Ryan didn't just want to dump him, he wanted something worthwhile in return. I think the lack of any return, not the money, was the more decisive factor.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think sunk cost is being used incorrectly here. If the alternatives are to dump him (and his salary) for a minor league roster filler vs. keep him on the roster, an argument can be made to just keep him (he's not exactly blocking any 1B prospects right now). This has nothing to do with sunk cost. Terry Ryan can just as easily dump him in August.

 

My take reading between the lines is Terry Ryan didn't just want to dump him, he wanted something worthwhile in return. I think the lack of any return, not the money, was the more decisive factor.

 

Maybe Terry has an unrealistic expectation of what kind of return Justin should fetch.

He's one of the worst hitting first basemen in the league, and he's not getting any younger.

People get hung up on his name, but this is not the same Justin Morneau as too many of us remember.

I've heard that Ryan was offered something for him (not sure what, but something is better than nothing) and turned it down because Baltimore wanted Minnesota to cover his salary.

That may or may not have happened, but I'm sure we'll find out in the coming days.

 

To your first point, even if it's some D level prospect, at least there is some chance of that player contributing when we are ready to compete again. Even if its less than 1%, it is still SOME chance. I guess I need someone to explain the benefit (long term) of keeping him for nothing, aside from sentimental reasons.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think sunk cost is being used incorrectly here. If the alternatives are to dump him (and his salary) for a minor league roster filler vs. keep him on the roster, an argument can be made to just keep him (he's not exactly blocking any 1B prospects right now). This has nothing to do with sunk cost. Terry Ryan can just as easily dump him in August.

 

My take reading between the lines is Terry Ryan didn't just want to dump him, he wanted something worthwhile in return. I think the lack of any return, not the money, was the more decisive factor.

 

Or, more likely, the prospect coming back wasn't worth anything close to $6m.

 

I don't blame JR for not trading any single player but I find it pretty damning that he didn't trade ANY players.

[Mr. Brooks]

Or, more likely, the prospect coming back wasn't worth anything close to $6m.

 

I don't blame JR for not trading any single player but I find it pretty damning that he didn't trade ANY players.

 

Aside from the Pohlad's checking account, explain why that matters, considering our current payroll situation?

 

And if we are going down that path, is 2 more months of Justin Morneau worth $6million? If the answer is no, then don't those arguments kind of cancel each other out?

[drjim]

Maybe Terry has an unrealistic expectation of what kind of return Justin should fetch.

He's one of the worst hitting first basemen in the league, and he's not getting any younger.

People get hung up on his name, but this is not the same Justin Morneau as too many of us remember.

I've heard that Ryan was offered something for him (not sure what, but something is better than nothing) and turned it down because Baltimore wanted Minnesota to cover his salary.

That may or may not have happened, but I'm sure we'll find out in the coming days.

 

To your first point, even if it's some D level prospect, at least there is some chance of that player contributing when we are ready to compete again. Even if its less than 1%, it is still SOME chance. I guess I need someone to explain the benefit (long term) of keeping him for nothing, aside from sentimental reasons.

 

The most optimistic answer is that he could pass through waivers, hit better for a couple of weeks, and then be moved for a better return of prospect/salary.

 

The other answer is I just don't agree you dump a guy for nothing unless there is a clear player he is blocking. They are still trying to win games.

[drjim]

Or, more likely, the prospect coming back wasn't worth anything close to $6m.

 

I don't blame JR for not trading any single player but I find it pretty damning that he didn't trade ANY players.

 

Since when does Butera not count?

 

I agree, but I would like to know what, if anything, was offered for the relievers. There was no reason to trade any of them for a warm body, they can all come back next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Aside from the Pohlad's checking account, explain why that matters, considering our current payroll situation?

 

And if we are going down that path, is 2 more months of Justin Morneau worth $6million? If the answer is no, then don't those arguments kind of cancel each other out?

 

I don't care about the money.

 

It's also not my money and I don't have to report to the man whose money it is.

[Mr. Brooks]

The most optimistic answer is that he could pass through waivers, hit better for a couple of weeks, and then be moved for a better return of prospect/salary.

 

The other answer is I just don't agree you dump a guy for nothing unless there is a clear player he is blocking. They are still trying to win games.

 

Couldn't he just as easily hit even worse for a couple weeks, and lose any small amount of trade value he had today? That argument works both ways.

 

Nobody is saying dump him for nothing. If you are offered a player, that is something. There are diamonds in the rough. I realize those are highly unlikely to pan out, but it's still a possibility.

 

I really don't get this argument that if you don't get an elite prospect then you are getting nothing. There are many good players in this league who were never top prospects. Obviously the majority were, but there are still some out there, waiting to be found. And you can't win the lottery if you don't play.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Since when does Butera not count?

 

I agree, but I would like to know what, if anything, was offered for the relievers. There was no reason to trade any of them for a warm body, they can all come back next year.

 

Everyone here knows how I feel about Butera. He never counts for anything in my book.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't care about the money.

 

It's also not my money and I don't have to report to the man whose money it is.

 

Well according to Dave St. Peter ownership had/has given Terry the authorization to spend more money than he has. Not to mention you still have to pay Justin that money by not trading him, so really it's not like you have to go to them and explain why you are spending more money, because really you wouldn't be.

Of course, the President of the team isn't going to come right out and call his boss cheap, so I guess we'll never know if the cheapness is Terry or the Pohlad's doing.

[ThePuck]

Aside from the Pohlad's checking account, explain why that matters, considering our current payroll situation?

 

And if we are going down that path, is 2 more months of Justin Morneau worth $6million? If the answer is no, then don't those arguments kind of cancel each other out?

 

Exactly. We have to pay 6M no matter what if he's not traded and he's not worth that.

 

Trading Morny and at least part of his salary for a prospect, regardless of whether or not the prospect is worth 6M this year, is a good idea because you never know what that prospect will be worth in future years...and even if he doesn't end up being worth near the 6M, that's okay cause that money is gone anyway if we don't trade Morny. Then he's gone for nothing and we still spent the 6M.

[Mr. Brooks]

This idea that we will never risk paying more than someone is worth is one of the reasons (not the only reason) we are in this mess to begin with. And now people are using that logic to defend the (non) moves.

 

This FO has been passive in the FA market, passive in the international market (sans Sano, who was under Billy's watch), and passive at the trade deadline. I don't know any industry in the world where being passive is a more successful approach than being aggressive.

That doesn't mean you throw money around like a drunken sailor, but it does mean you have to be willing to go out on a limb and take more risks every once in a while.

 

I didn't like the players we got in return for Revere, but I will still defend the trade because I like the aggressiveness and proactivity behind the deal. We need more of that.