Hicks vs Span vs Revere

[Oxtung]

A .900 OPS from a rookie is pretty rare. In fact, only 11 rookies in the last 20 years have posted that figure, with at least 400 plate appearances.

 

For single seasons, From 1993 to 2012, Has rookie status (by modern standards), (requiring onbase_plus_slugging?.900 and At least 400 plate appearances), sorted by greatest On-Base Plus Slugging: Results - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Plus, the AL ROY candidates are underwhelming to say the least. I think he can still win the award with a strong second half.

 

ROY winners (hitters only) since 2001

Harper .817

Trout .963

Posey .862

Coghlan .850

Soto .868

Longoria .874

Braun 1.004

Pedroia .822

Ramirez .833

Howard .923

Bay .908

Crosby .745

Berroa .789

Hinske .846

Pujols 1.013

Suzuki .838

 

Their average OPS is .872. You're right I guessed too high but wasn't that far off. I think my larger point still stands. To even reach an OPS of .800 for the season Hicks needs to have an OPS of about .975 over the second half. That isn't going to happen. The Twin that has a chance at ROY is Arcia although that took a blow after being sent down to AAA again today.

[jokin]

ROY winners (hitters only) since 2001

Harper .817

Trout .963

Posey .862

Coghlan .850

Soto .868

Longoria .874

Braun 1.004

Pedroia .822

Ramirez .833

Howard .923

Bay .908

Crosby .745

Berroa .789

Hinske .846

Pujols 1.013

Suzuki .838

 

Their average OPS is .872. You're right I guessed too high but wasn't that far off. I think my larger point still stands. To even reach an OPS of .800 for the season Hicks needs to have an OPS of about .975 over the second half. That isn't going to happen. The Twin that has a chance at ROY is Arcia although that took a blow after being sent down to AAA again today.

 

Nice research. Did you have the chance to review where the current set of AL rookies rank order in OPS? David Lough comes to mind as having had a good year, and his OPS is sitting at .757. Hicks would have to go on a pretty torrid stretch just to get to that mark.

[Oxtung]

Nice research. Did you have the chance to review where the current set of AL rookies rank order in OPS? David Lough comes to mind as having had a good year, and his OPS is sitting at .757. Hicks would have to go on a pretty torrid stretch just to get to that mark.

 

AL Rookies w/>100 PA

Jose Iglesias .878 OPS

Nick Franklin .788

David Lough .757

Wil Myers .735

Oswaldo Arcia .725

....

10) Aaron Hicks .630

 

Hicks would have to have one hell of a second half to put himself in position to even be considered a legit contender let alone win it. His fate was sealed by the end of April.

[jokin]

AL Rookies w/>100 PA

Jose Iglesias .878 OPS

Nick Franklin .788

David Lough .757

Wil Myers .735

Oswaldo Arcia .725

....

10) Aaron Hicks .630

 

Hicks would have to have one hell of a second half to put himself in position to even be considered a legit contender let alone win it. His fate was sealed by the end of April.

 

Nice work, again, Ox. Oops, Iglesias had completely slipped my mind, and I had actually called for his acquisition back during the Peter Gammons/ Gordon Edes table-slamming in demand that the Red Sox acquire Joe Mauer. It looks like Iglesias has to be the front-runner, although he has slowed down quite a bit in July (.635 OPS), he definitely will be the darling of the East Coast media. Even if Iglesias just maintains somewhere near his July level of production, he will get strong consideration at a premium position and playing for a likely post-season favorite.

[launchingthrees]

Of players with more than 300 PAs Hicks is the 6th worst player in baseball according to WAR. Major League Leaderboards » 2013 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

 

I mean this thread featured a serious debate as to whether he'd be a ROY candidate. It's absurd. The discussion should center around whether he has a reasonable chance to ever be better than average. The historical comps for his production would say no. He's been really really awful and he'll be 24 next season.

[ThePuck]

Of players with more than 300 PAs Hicks is the 6th worst player in baseball according to WAR. Major League Leaderboards » 2013 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

 

I mean this thread featured a serious debate as to whether he'd be a ROY candidate. It's absurd. The discussion should center around whether he has a reasonable chance to ever be better than average. The historical comps for his production would say no. He's been really really awful and he'll be 24 next season.

 

You seem to be taking a lot of pleasure in the fact that Hicks has been so bad...

[launchingthrees]

You seem to be taking a lot of pleasure in the fact that Hicks has been so bad...

 

I don't think he was ready for the majors at any point this season if that's what you mean. And as I posted a couple pages ago the ROY predictions were pretty bizarre.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

The discussion should center around whether he has a reasonable chance to ever be better than average. The historical comps for his production would say no.

 

As bad as Hicks has been, I think this is a bit much. Young players often struggle in their first year. Not many are made to do so for such a protracted period without being put out of their misery and sent down to work on their game at AAA. Hicks will be fine once he gets a chance to regroup, and his personal history suggests he is (unsurprisingly) better when repeating a level.

 

What historical comps for his production are you looking at to dismiss him? Guys like Mike Cameron, Hunter, Gomez all had poor starts to their major league careers at ages 23-25 and went on to become above average, productive players. If anything, the ones who come in straight from AA and make an immediate impact are the exceptions rather than the rules.

[ThePuck]

I don't think he was ready for the majors at any point this season if that's what you mean. And as I posted a couple pages ago the ROY predictions were pretty bizarre.

 

No, what I meant was, your post seems like you are clearly thrilled Hicks has been so bad this year. It means you get to say you were right, so I guess that's the joy.

 

Let's rejoice in the fact that another one of the prospects that we're waiting to deliver us from the depths is struggling. For me it's sad, but I have faith he'll be better, and if not, I will take no joy in the fact that he wasn't. I wonder how many more of our prospects that we are counting on to deliver us to contention will struggle and get lit up with joy like a Christmas tree in here in the next couple years.

[old nurse]

No, what I meant was, your post seems like you are clearly thrilled Hicks has been so bad this year. It means you get to say you were right, so I guess that's the joy.

 

Let's rejoice in the fact that another one of the prospects that we're waiting to deliver us from the depths is struggling. For me it's sad, but I have faith he'll be better, and if not, I will take no joy in the fact that he wasn't. I wonder how many more of our prospects that we are counting on to deliver us to contention will struggle and get lit up with joy like a Christmas tree in here in the next couple years.

 

Hicks was still a raw talent at 24. In another thread someone posted the Souhan article ripping the Twins for not promoting young raw talent. Hick's season so far is being observed by some as what happens when you rush a player. It is an observation on performance. Those types are as allowable as the comments on the starting pitching and performance as the team as a whole.

[ThePuck]

Hicks was still a raw talent at 24. In another thread someone posted the Souhan article ripping the Twins for not promoting young raw talent. Hick's season so far is being observed by some as what happens when you rush a player. It is an observation on performance. Those types are as allowable as the comments on the starting pitching and performance as the team as a whole.

 

I'd never suggest the comments weren't allowable. It just seems he's getting a lot of joy out of our guy performing poorly. I guess, in the end, it seems as fans we shouldn't find joy in our players doing poorly....especially those who came through our system and we've been waiting for years to see.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Of players with more than 300 PAs Hicks is the 6th worst player in baseball according to WAR. Major League Leaderboards » 2013 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

 

I mean this thread featured a serious debate as to whether he'd be a ROY candidate. It's absurd. The discussion should center around whether he has a reasonable chance to ever be better than average. The historical comps for his production would say no. He's been really really awful and he'll be 24 next season.

 

I'm not sure about the ROY stuff. Most of us expected him to struggle, though not quite as much as he has. I don't think your conclusion is accurate either. I expect him to combine the best of what Span and Revere can offer. He's better defensively than Span and pretty close to Revere. He has power that neither have. Definitely needs to work on his contact, but his approach is fairly sound. I'm kind of curious how he adapts to AAA. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he takes of a bit in Rochester.

[Oxtung]

What historical comps for his production are you looking at to dismiss him? Guys like Mike Cameron, Hunter, Gomez all had poor starts to their major league careers at ages 23-25 and went on to become above average, productive players. If anything, the ones who come in straight from AA and make an immediate impact are the exceptions rather than the rules.

 

Major League Leaderboards » 2013 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

 

There is a list of rookies in the last 40 years who have over 300 PA and a wOBA close to Hicks. You'll notice #5 is our esteemed Ronald Gardenhire! Those aren't inspiring names. Let's all hope Hicks can succeed where many of those listed failed.

 

Cameron actually had a pretty good rookie season, Hunter, while struggling was significantly better than Hicks has been. Gomez was pretty poor in his rookie season, though he only got 139 PA's. If you compare Gomez to Hicks' first 139 PA's, Gomez is significantly better than Hicks. Similarly if you compare Hicks' season with Gomez's first full season, Gomez is again significantly better. Hicks has been really, really bad. There is no way around it. Here is to hoping next year goes better!

[launchingthrees]

No, what I meant was, your post seems like you are clearly thrilled Hicks has been so bad this year. It means you get to say you were right, so I guess that's the joy.

 

Let's rejoice in the fact that another one of the prospects that we're waiting to deliver us from the depths is struggling. For me it's sad, but I have faith he'll be better, and if not, I will take no joy in the fact that he wasn't. I wonder how many more of our prospects that we are counting on to deliver us to contention will struggle and get lit up with joy like a Christmas tree in here in the next couple years.

 

You're excluding the middle. I would have loved for Hicks to be an all star but I'm not capable of letting "faith" get in the way of reality. He's been horrible from day one and the chances of him ever being really good are pretty damn low. If you have, ya know, any actual arguments I'm willing to listen but there aren't any.

[dgwills]

You're excluding the middle. I would have loved for Hicks to be an all star but I'm not capable of letting "faith" get in the way of reality. He's been horrible from day one and the chances of him ever being really good are pretty damn low. If you have, ya know, any actual arguments I'm willing to listen but there aren't any.

 

He was good in preseason? I guess that's not much of an argument, but those were good times!

[diehardtwinsfan]

You're excluding the middle. I would have loved for Hicks to be an all star but I'm not capable of letting "faith" get in the way of reality. He's been horrible from day one and the chances of him ever being really good are pretty damn low. If you have, ya know, any actual arguments I'm willing to listen but there aren't any.

 

You confuse present reality with future reality. Yes, he was pretty bad from day 1. To argue though that a guy with a career "underwhelming" minor league OPS of .800 who plays gold glove defense in CF has little chance of being really good is kind of silly. Hicks clearly needed a year at AAA, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some of that next year, but he's 24 and has had a pretty decent minor league career to date. He may never be an all star, but an .800 OPS if he were to maintain his minor league career and good defense will play up well anywhere in the outfield and keep him in the majors for a long time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Aaron Hicks is 23, not 24.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You're excluding the middle. I would have loved for Hicks to be an all star but I'm not capable of letting "faith" get in the way of reality. He's been horrible from day one and the chances of him ever being really good are pretty damn low. If you have, ya know, any actual arguments I'm willing to listen but there aren't any.

 

Except for the fact that he was jumped two levels out of Spring Training and is still pretty young at 23. Will Aaron Hicks be an All-Star? I have no idea and neither does anyone else. It is premature to say he won't be a good player? Absolutely. Projecting a 23 year old's career from less than 300 PAs after he skipped AAA is a good way to make yourself look foolish 3-4 years down the road.

 

Cristian Guzman posted a 38 (!) OPS+ in 1999 and turned into an everyday MLB player. Yeah, Hicks has been bad. He's also 23 and has about 300 PAs under his belt. Jason Kubel posted a 72 OPS+ in his first 235 PAs and turned out just fine.

 

This happens with every prospect that struggles. I saw it happen with Kubel. I saw it happen with Cuddyer. I even saw it with Morneau, which was maddening. People put way too much stock in a half season of numbers instead of giving the kid a season or more to see if he can figure it out.

 

This has nothing to do with faith or reality. This is about patience and not jumping to conclusions based on incomplete data.

[launchingthrees]

Guzman was 21 and played a position that allowed him to be bad offensively and still get at bats. All the other names were better and at least as young as Hicks.

 

"This happens with every prospect that struggles. I saw it happen with Kubel. I saw it happen with Cuddyer. I even saw it with Morneau, which was maddening. People put way too much stock in a half season of numbers instead of giving the kid a season or more to see if he can figure it out"

Can you come up with a player that had Hick's first 300 PAs at his age who turned out to be good? None of the guys you mentioned are comparable. I'm assuming they don't exist because people keep bringing up irrelevant players.

 

"Projecting a 23 year old's career from less than 300 PAs after he skipped AAA is a good way to make yourself look foolish 3-4 years down the road"

No it's not. It's a good bet. Remember when Hicks was going to be a ROY candidate despite being one of the worst players in baseball? That's a bad bet.