Reusse: Let Gardy go

[The Wise One]

The players who have played baseball for all of their have not figured out the fundamentals by the time they reach the majors it is not the major leaugue managers fault. Throw out the whole system if you want to use lack of fundamentals as your excuse. Players not playing up to their potential as an excuse? Where were the accolades then for Gardenhire that Willngham had a career year? Players tuning him out as an excuse? Find me a quote. This is by no means support of Gardenhire, the excuses are seeming lame. Yes managers get fired after multiple losing seasons. The quote from the GM usually goes something like "Well, you can't fire all of the players"

[ScottyB]

Don't expect the Twins to go outside the organization for a new manager. In just over 50 years they have done it 3 times - Bill Rigney, Gene Mauch, and Ray Rabbit Miller. If it's an interim manager, expect it to be Scott Ullger - he's the guy who takes over when Gardy's tossed from a game. There might be about a 10% chance of Molly. If Ullger is interim, they bring up Mientkievicz to take his place probably coaching 3B while Vavra moves to coaching first. Setting up Dougie to manage next year

[jokin]

Gleeman mentioned Gardy in his last blog post. Boils down to pretty much two points.

 

1. Since 1945 only 4 non-expansion managers have kept their jobs after three straight 90-loss seasons.

 

2. One of the four who did, Tom Kelly, did so under the present ownership family. You have to go back to 1980 to find the last non-expansion guy before Kelly (Joe Torre) to hang on another year, and he was canned the following season.

 

It looks to me that Gleeman is not suggesting whether Kelly should or even could be fired, just that he'd absolutely be gone if he worked for any other franchise in baseball.

 

I'm scratching my head figuring who else in baseball could possibly be safe after 3/90. It's possible that Dale Sveum with the Cubs might lose 90 this year, which would be his second year in a row, what with all the roster restructuring in Chicago, he's looking pretty safe to survive through next year (3rd year on his 3-year deal, plus a club option for 2015), even with a third year of 90 losses.

 

Connie Mack had 6 of 7 years of 90+ losses, 1940-46. Of course, he couldn't fire himself. At the other end of the spectrum, Bo Porter and Mike Redmond are both bright, young managers who, because of their circumstances seemingly have good shots at going 3/90, although the way the Marlins have been playing since June 1, what with all the good, cost-controlled pitching and some good young position players on Miami, even Jeff Loria might not be able to screw it up enough for the Marlins to have three consecutive 90+ losing seasons.

[Riverbrian]

I still feel the same way I did last year.

 

It's time for a change and time to honor him at the same time.

 

I simply wouldn't throw him under any bus. Give the respect he has earned. Let him finish the season. Hopefully he'll get his 1,000 wins.

 

He's been one of us for longer than anybody on the roster. That isn't lost on me.

[adjacent]

I hope before deciding who gets fired there is a good discussion about what has to change Firing for firing, that doesn't change anything. The area that seems to need more change is the philosophy of pitching. I know they are bringing more strike-out pitchers through the minors, but is Anderson the right guy to coach those pitchers? I doubt. And there is the problem with Gardy. Would he accept staying with a different pitching coach than Anderson? Looking from the outside... it doesn't look like. Maybe insde things are different.

[The Wise One]

I hope before deciding who gets fired there is a good discussion about what has to change Firing for firing, that doesn't change anything. The area that seems to need more change is the philosophy of pitching. I know they are bringing more strike-out pitchers through the minors, but is Anderson the right guy to coach those pitchers? I doubt. And there is the problem with Gardy. Would he accept staying with a different pitching coach than Anderson? Looking from the outside... it doesn't look like. Maybe insde things are different.

 

Did any pitcher leaving the Twins become better at striking people out? Anderson would be blamable for poor pitchingif there were good examples of that happening.

[nicksaviking]

Did any pitcher leaving the Twins become better at striking people out? Anderson would be blamable for poor pitchingif there were good examples of that happening.

 

The lack of ambition to acquire strikeout pitchers is systematic. Anderson likely has little to be blamed for either considering the GMs of this club continue to give him nearly nothing to work with. Still, if you have bad pitchers you need someone who can coach them to mediocrity and Anderson has not done that. He's in the same boat as Gardenhire, it might not be his fault, but he's clearly not part of the solution.

 

If you can't coach your guys to overachieve once in awhile, you're not one of the top coaches in the league. Or if you were at one point, your message has likely gone stale.

[old nurse]

If you can't coach your guys to overachieve once in awhile, you're not one of the top coaches in the league. Or if you were at one point, your message has likely gone stale.

 

Overacheivers under Anderson. Slowey, Blackburn in his first two years, DeVries certainly did better than one would have expected. The failure is Liriano. Relievers that did well under Anderson would include Guerrier,

I don't think other than Liriano.

 

Strikeouts are a part of fip and fip is a large part of WAR. Since 2002 the Twins k/9 is almost the worst in the league. The Twins are the 5th best WAR cumulative pitching over that time. Something has to be a little right with the pitching coach. Other than Santana, one great year from Pavano, and a 1/2 year on Liriano it is not like there has been great pitching on the Twins part.

[LaBombo]

At the other end of the spectrum, Bo Porter and Mike Redmond are both bright, young managers who, because of their circumstances seemingly have good shots at going 3/90, although the way the Marlins have been playing since June 1, what with all the good, cost-controlled pitching and some good young position players on Miami, even Jeff Loria might not be able to screw it up enough for the Marlins to have three consecutive 90+ losing seasons.

Very good points about the Marlins, Loria and Redmond. The expansion standard for the manager position probably still applies down there, what with the feast-or-famine, win-or-lose, live-or-die extreme cyclical nature of their rebuild/compete/rinse/lather/repeat blueprint.

[Thegrin]

I have looked closely at Gardy's decisions. His in game decisions are pretty conservative.

 

His decisions on when to pull the starter are based on the pitch-count and age of the pitcher.

He also is pretty traditional about lefty/righty substitutions

 

He uses all his players on a weekly basis to keep them sharp. His pinch hitters are about what you would expect. He gives players a rest when they are hurt and/or tired.

 

There is no way to judge the affect he has on his players, except that they don't quit.

Look at how many games they fell behind, but kept battling back.

 

We hear him giving players a pat on the back. We don't often hear about when he kicks a players butt. What happens in the clubhouse, stays in the clubhouse. You don't see a lot of back-biting and finger-pointing from his players.

 

Players may not want to come to Minnesota, but once they are here, they seem to want to stay. Is that because Gardy is a good manager to play for?

 

Until the players start complaining about Gardy, I see no upside in firing him.

[ThePuck]

I have looked closely at Gardy's decisions. His in game decisions are pretty conservative.

 

His decisions on when to pull the starter are based on the pitch-count and age of the pitcher.

He also is pretty traditional about lefty/righty substitutions

 

He uses all his players on a weekly basis to keep them sharp. His pinch hitters are about what you would expect. He gives players a rest when they are hurt and/or tired.

 

There is no way to judge the affect he has on his players, except that they don't quit.

Look at how many games they fell behind, but kept battling back.

 

We hear him giving players a pat on the back. We don't often hear about when he kicks a players butt. What happens in the clubhouse, stays in the clubhouse. You don't see a lot of back-biting and finger-pointing from his players.

 

Players may not want to come to Minnesota, but once they are here, they seem to want to stay. Is that because Gardy is a good manager to play for?

 

Until the players start complaining about Gardy, I see no upside in firing him.

 

I'm guessing you never watch his post game interviews, because that's the only way you can say you don't often hear about when he kicks a players butt.

 

As far as his players never complaining about him. After the 2011 season, Gardy did an interview on ESPN1500 in which he said many of his players were defensive with him when he tried to talk to them about things and they were upset because he throws them under the bus. He even used that phrasing.

 

As far as players complaining openly about their manager to the press, you almost never see that anywhere in baseball anymore. That's not a sign of anything really.

[nicksaviking]

Overacheivers under Anderson. Slowey, Blackburn in his first two years, DeVries certainly did better than one would have expected. The failure is Liriano. Relievers that did well under Anderson would include Guerrier,

I don't think other than Liriano.

 

DeVries overacheived, but Slowey and Blackburn were top 100 prospects as was Perkins as a minor league starter. I wouldn't qualify them as overacheivers, for a short while they performed as expected then regressed significantly.

[stringer bell]

I also think the discussion has to be broadened. First of all, 90 losses three years in a row is unacceptable. Secondly, the ownership and front office have to figure out how to get out of this mess and proceed with a plan. Perhaps the plan is already in place--the minor league teams are chock-full of talent. Pitching needs to be acquired and developed and that has to be the number one priority for each transaction going forward. Can Gardenhire be part of the solution or is it better to interrupt the continuity and "start fresh" with the big club? I don't think the manager can gripe about the long run he has had ending with three straight non-contenders.

[jokin]

Did any pitcher leaving the Twins become better at striking people out? Anderson would be blamable for poor pitchingif there were good examples of that happening.

 

Jason Marquis 3.28 K/9 Twins 7.6 K/9 Padres

Jesse Crain 6.22 K/9 Twins 10.56 K/9 Sox

Kyle Lohse 5.01 K/9 Twins 5.60 K/9 Since traded

RA Dickey 5.88 K/9 Twins 6.83 K/9 Since traded

Kevin Slowey 6.67 K/9 Twins 7.20 K/9 Marlins

Matt Guerrier 5.91 K/9 Twins 6.53 K/9 Dodgers

Matt Garza 7.11 K/9 Twins 7.68 K/9 Since traded

 

 

The trends are all negative, but I'm not sure they are statistically significant. What if the question is asked in reverse, how much does a pitcher's K/9 drop after joining the Twins?---

 

Vance Worley 4.62 K/9 Twins 7.71 K/9 Phillies

Kevin Correia 5.04 K/9 Twins 6.04 K/9 before Twins

Mike Pelfrey 4.90 K/9 Twins 5.08 K/9 before Twins

Josh Roenicke 5.77 K/9 Twins 6.81 K/9 before Twins

Matt Capps 5.39 K/9 Twins 6.93 K/9 before Twins

Carl Pavano 4.83 K/9 Twins 5.75 K/9 before Twins

 

Probably the National League effect to a certain extent.

[The Wise One]

Jason Marquis 3.28 K/9 Twins 7.6 K/9 Padres

Jesse Crain 6.22 K/9 Twins 10.56 K/9 Sox

Kyle Lohse 5.01 K/9 Twins 5.60 K/9 Since traded

RA Dickey 5.88 K/9 Twins 6.83 K/9 Since traded

Kevin Slowey 6.67 K/9 Twins 7.20 K/9 Marlins

Matt Guerrier 5.91 K/9 Twins 6.53 K/9 Dodgers

Matt Garza 7.11 K/9 Twins 7.68 K/9 Since traded

 

The trends are all negative, but I'm not sure they are statistically significant. What if the question is asked in reverse, how much does a pitcher's K/9 drop after joining the Twins?---

 

Vance Worley 4.62 K/9 Twins 7.71 K/9 Phillies

Kevin Correia 5.04 K/9 Twins 6.04 K/9 before Twins

Mike Pelfrey 4.90 K/9 Twins 5.08 K/9 before Twins

 

Probably the National League effect to a great extent.

 

I probably should have phrased it improved as a pitcher your examples of players improving is quite small. Marquis pitched all of 7 games after missing a portion of spring training. Never had a chance to improve his bad start with the Twins. Dickey was a work in progress and still took a few years to develop. Slowey had a great start in a new league and then where did his numbers go? Guerrier was designated for assignment last month. K rate improved, pitching suffered. Lohse and Garza should not have been traded for what they got in return.

 

Pelfrey as he comes off injury has an improving k/9 rate. Correia it could be argued is pitching better than average for his normal stats. Worley was told to get the ball down lower in the strike zone. He is hopefully working on that. His ball appeared to be more up this year.

All suffer from the dreaded SSS in terms of is there really a difference.

[Thrylos]

I actually sympathize with Gardenhire. Ryan handed him a truck load of trash this year.

If Gardenhire goes , Ryan needs to follow.

 

Indeed, because if that does not happen, the change will be fairly ineffective, since the same organizational philosophy will apply.

 

Gardy going is a good step, but a cancer patient does not need a face lift but rather some pretty massive surgery...

[TKGuy]

I just don't see them firing Gardy, especially with TR at the helm

[Kwak]

There has been some major surgery--the Twins are far more aggressive in pursuing and signing better talent from the amateur ranks than in the previous decade. True, the "slot rule" have had a huge effect--but there has been change. Another example is in international signings--that was next to nothing in the previous decade. Where the FO has failed--is in obscurring the fact that the previous drafts provided only marginal talent. The veterans that were signed weren't able to win enough games to make the team look somewhat competitive. They weren't signed to solve the talent problem (short-term contracts) they were signed to cover-it-up until the "next wave" is able to develop and progress to the Twins and be the real solution. If Gardy is not retained--it is because a sacrifice is needed to quiet the masses.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I actually sympathize with Gardenhire. Ryan handed him a truck load of trash this year.

If Gardenhire goes , Ryan needs to follow.

I hate to give the Pohlad's too much credit, but maybe that's the plan... in 2011 the Pohlad's may have taken inventory, realized they had no future in the farm system whatsoever, and brought back TR to rebuild the farm. When the farm was restocked the Pohlads planned to cut ties with TR and Gardy to start fresh... Like I said, hate to give the Pohlad's too much credit...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Did any pitcher leaving the Twins become better at striking people out? Anderson would be blamable for poor pitchingif there were good examples of that happening.

No research, no stats, but Liriano's looking pretty darn good right now

[ThePuck]

I hate to give the Pohlad's too much credit, but maybe that's the plan... in 2011 the Pohlad's may have taken inventory, realized they had no future in the farm system whatsoever, and brought back TR to rebuild the farm. When the farm was restocked the Pohlads planned to cut ties with TR and Gardy to start fresh... Like I said, hate to give the Pohlad's too much credit...

 

Smith has contributed positively to the farm system as well. It's not like Ryan has done it by himself. Ryan did have the benefit of having a couple really high draft picks, which he didn't make and was a result of losing a lot. While I liked the Span and Revere trades based on what Ryan was trying to accomplish, so far the Revere trade might end up being a big dud. Heck both might. And then what do we say about his involvement in the stocking of the farm system so far?

[nicksaviking]

I hate to give the Pohlad's too much credit, but maybe that's the plan... in 2011 the Pohlad's may have taken inventory, realized they had no future in the farm system whatsoever, and brought back TR to rebuild the farm. When the farm was restocked the Pohlads planned to cut ties with TR and Gardy to start fresh... Like I said, hate to give the Pohlad's too much credit...

 

Then don't. It was less about bringing TR back and more about trying to cover up the massive mess that Bill Smith made. Of course as discussed many times here, Bill Smith is largely to thank for the state of the farm. Most of the international signings were his and the team only got Buxton and Stewart because they were terrible.

[nicksaviking]

Jason Marquis 3.28 K/9 Twins 7.6 K/9 Padres

Jesse Crain 6.22 K/9 Twins 10.56 K/9 Sox

Kyle Lohse 5.01 K/9 Twins 5.60 K/9 Since traded

RA Dickey 5.88 K/9 Twins 6.83 K/9 Since traded

Kevin Slowey 6.67 K/9 Twins 7.20 K/9 Marlins

Matt Guerrier 5.91 K/9 Twins 6.53 K/9 Dodgers

Matt Garza 7.11 K/9 Twins 7.68 K/9 Since traded

 

The trends are all negative, but I'm not sure they are statistically significant. What if the question is asked in reverse, how much does a pitcher's K/9 drop after joining the Twins?---

 

Vance Worley 4.62 K/9 Twins 7.71 K/9 Phillies

Kevin Correia 5.04 K/9 Twins 6.04 K/9 before Twins

Mike Pelfrey 4.90 K/9 Twins 5.08 K/9 before Twins

 

Probably the National League effect to a great extent.

 

I too often wonder what it is that causes this. The numbers generally aren't that swayed but it's enough to see a pattern, even if minor. It's not like you can find many examples of the pitchers numbers improving with the Twins, Santana and his injury issues being an exception. Perhaps it is simply seeing a pitcher a couple times a game in the NL.

 

It would be nice to get some interviews with the pitchers themselves to see if they can explain why this happens.

 

 

PS: Add Carl Pavano and Matt Capps to your list also

[Thrylos]

Then don't. It was less about bringing TR back and more about trying to cover up the massive mess that Bill Smith made. Of course as discussed many times here, Bill Smith is largely to thank for the state of the farm. Most of the international signings were his and the team only got Buxton and Stewart because they were terrible.

 

what exactly was Smith's "massive mess"? Smith inherited a 79-83 team with Santana and Hunter from Ryan and went 88-75, 87-76 and 94-68 the next 3 seasons. Hardly a mess and much less "massive".

 

Then 2011 happen. Differences between the 2010 and 2011 teams?

 

Casilla and Nishioka vs Hudson and Hardy in the lineup

Duensing vs Slowey in the rotation

Swarzak and Hoey and Nathan vs Guerrier and Crain and Rauch in the pen

 

Lots of these (like the "need for more speed") were initiated by the field staff (Gardy). All the pitching changes were signed off by the field staff (Gardy & Andy).

 

And health issues happened.

 

Smith deserves as much blame as Gardy and his staff for 2011.

 

Ryan did not improve in 2012 and in 2013.

 

If Smith needed to get fired for 2011, so did Gardy & co, and Ryan should be fired for 2012 and 2013.

 

Enough with the revisionist history with Smith... if anything, year by year, his clubs were better than Ryan's clubs.

[JB_Iowa]

Bill Smith was not fired for having a losing team. He was fired over payroll issues. If they'd had the same losing season with a $100 million payroll, I think he'd still be GM (or at least would have been GM in 2012).

 

Smith pushed Pohlad to the $115 million figure. But the 2011 season was a disaster (the first one the Twins had in years) and there was a public outcry for Smith's termination. In addition, I think season ticket sales were languishing.

 

So, appease the public by firing Smith and better yet, bring back Terry Ryan who loves low payrolls and cut payroll not only for 2012 but added cuts in 2013.

 

It all had to do with money.

 

I'm not convinced that they won't renew Gardenhire's contract. I think part of it depends on what develops in the media over the rest of the summer and where they think season ticket sales will head if he is retained (or where they will head if he isn't retained). Last summer there seemed to be fairly heavy public support for keeping Gardenhire on as manager. I think that support is dwindling.

 

If the powers-that-be perceive that keeping him on will hurt season ticket sales, he'll be persuaded to take another position with the club (unless he resigns on his own and he seems pretty stubborn about that). If they think season ticket holders mostly want Gardenhire to stay on as manager, they'll give him another 1 year contract.

 

Always, always, it comes down to money with this club.

[h2oface]

What? Get rid of Gardenhire? Already?

[Kwak]

Then don't. It was less about bringing TR back and more about trying to cover up the massive mess that Bill Smith made. Of course as discussed many times here, Bill Smith is largely to thank for the state of the farm. Most of the international signings were his and the team only got Buxton and Stewart because they were terrible.

 

No, Pohlad was the #1 reason. There was a budget (set by ownership committee) for the complete organization. TR skewed it toward the Active Roster because the Twins were winning and one of the goals of the team was to obtain approval for the publicly subsidized stadium. A winning Twins team was part of the plan to get the new stadium. But money spent on the Active Roster meant less to spend for new player acquistion (the draft, etc.). Recall, the slot system wasn't in effect, so teams could spend as they wanted in the draft. The Twins had to focus on players that they could sign and fit in their budget. The talent acquired after the salaries were escalating was affected--the Twins were disadvantaged in the Draft because they were spending to "win now" (well, they did have good teams). The Twins should have had separate budgets (Roster and Acquisition) and fund them according to plan for long-term goals of the organization.

 

Things have changed. There is a much higher committment (by the Twins) to draft "better" players and to be aggressive in the International market. The slot system evens the field, which helps the Twins. Also, with a declining payroll for the 40-man Roster there is more money for new players. But these new guys need time, more time than next year. Until then, the Twins will have to muddle through with what they have plus any new free agents.

Point, Bill Smith was as constrained by ownership as was Ryan. Most of the players on this team, or should be on the team had "they stuck", were acquired during Ryan's tenure, not Smith's. As stated before, the Twins GM isn't a dictator who makes all decisions, therefore the GM should not get all of the blame or credit.

[Kobs]

Baseball managers all make the same decisions, just get rid of him, get someone cheaper, spend the money to get guys who are already good at baseball to play the positions.

[jokin]

I too often wonder what it is that causes this. The numbers generally aren't that swayed but it's enough to see a pattern, even if minor. It's not like you can find many examples of the pitchers numbers improving with the Twins, Santana and his injury issues being an exception. Perhaps it is simply seeing a pitcher a couple times a game in the NL.

 

It would be nice to get some interviews with the pitchers themselves to see if they can explain why this happens.

 

 

PS: Add Carl Pavano and Matt Capps to your list also

 

Per your request, an updated list, with a commensurate change in my assessment of the NL qualifier for the K/9 differential:

 

Jason Marquis 3.28 K/9 Twins 7.6 K/9 Padres

Jesse Crain 6.22 K/9 Twins 10.56 K/9 Sox

Kyle Lohse 5.01 K/9 Twins 5.60 K/9 Since traded

RA Dickey 5.88 K/9 Twins 6.83 K/9 Since traded

Kevin Slowey 6.67 K/9 Twins 7.20 K/9 Marlins

Matt Guerrier 5.91 K/9 Twins 6.53 K/9 Dodgers

Matt Garza 7.11 K/9 Twins 7.68 K/9 Since traded

 

 

The trends are all negative, but I'm not sure they are statistically significant. What if the question is asked in reverse, how much does a pitcher's K/9 drop after joining the Twins?---

 

Vance Worley 4.62 K/9 Twins 7.71 K/9 Phillies

Kevin Correia 5.04 K/9 Twins 6.04 K/9 before Twins

Mike Pelfrey 4.90 K/9 Twins 5.08 K/9 before Twins

Josh Roenicke 5.77 K/9 Twins 6.81 K/9 before Twins

Matt Capps 5.39 K/9 Twins 6.93 K/9 before Twins

Carl Pavano 4.83 K/9 Twins 5.75 K/9 before Twins

Probably the National League effect to a certain extent.

[jokin]

Bill Smith was not fired for having a losing team. He was fired over payroll issues. If they'd had the same losing season with a $100 million payroll, I think he'd still be GM (or at least would have been GM in 2012).

 

Smith pushed Pohlad to the $115 million figure. But the 2011 season was a disaster (the first one the Twins had in years) and there was a public outcry for Smith's termination. In addition, I think season ticket sales were languishing.

 

So, appease the public by firing Smith and better yet, bring back Terry Ryan who loves low payrolls and cut payroll not only for 2012 but added cuts in 2013.

 

It all had to do with money.

 

I'm not convinced that they won't renew Gardenhire's contract. I think part of it depends on what develops in the media over the rest of the summer and where they think season ticket sales will head if he is retained (or where they will head if he isn't retained). Last summer there seemed to be fairly heavy public support for keeping Gardenhire on as manager. I think that support is dwindling.

 

If the powers-that-be perceive that keeping him on will hurt season ticket sales, he'll be persuaded to take another position with the club (unless he resigns on his own and he seems pretty stubborn about that). If they think season ticket holders mostly want Gardenhire to stay on as manager, they'll give him another 1 year contract.

Always, always, it comes down to money with this club.

 

Which certainly almost guarantees a still lower payroll in 2014 and likely 2015. Kicking Gardy upstairs, ala Tom Kelly (which I think is the most likely scenario), gives the club the perfect rationale for doing so. This immediately creates lesser expectations on the W-L side of the equation for the near-term, and a return to the 1990s marketing ploy of :

 

"The Minnesota Twins....Get to Know Em!"