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Article: Twins Trade Deadline Breakdown: The Nolasco Trade


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While I sort of like Ricky Nolasco, acquiring him is by no means a good investment. His career 4.44ERA has been justified the past three years and I don't know if that's even acceptable for a #5 starter. His K/9 is falling and he's becoming more hittable as he ages. I really don't know if he is capable of performing like he is this season in the long run. Good for Miami on trading him at peak value.

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If the Twins can collect better prospects then they should absolutely throw in money. Also TR is one of the few GM's smart enough to pick up on the idea of getting an A ball player with a higher ceiling when going after prospects. The problem is the Twins don't have much to trade with Willingham out. I doubt they trade Morneau but I could be wrong and Corriea would be a good sell high candidate. Burton is another option but I doubt they trade him either. I don't really see anything else to trade.

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If all Corriera can fetch is "third tier prospect(s)", then why trade at all? Omit the obvious salary dump to increase annual profit. The Twins don't have a 2014 rotation and will have to enter the FA market this offseason. While I earnestly hope they do sign a top 60 pitcher, they would likely have to add a second pitcher just to get to five for the rotation. Trading Correira means signing another pitcher--better to keep him. Besides they could trade him next year anyway.

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If all Corriera can fetch is "third tier prospect(s)", then why trade at all? Omit the obvious salary dump to increase annual profit. The Twins don't have a 2014 rotation and will have to enter the FA market this offseason. While I earnestly hope they do sign a top 60 pitcher, they would likely have to add a second pitcher just to get to five for the rotation. Trading Correira means signing another pitcher--better to keep him. Besides they could trade him next year anyway.

 

I agree completely.

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If they can find a Correia type any winter, why not pick up a prospect and give the starts to Albers, Worley or Hendriks. Maybe one of those guys turns it around given the opportunity. How much will it cost in wins this year? 2?

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What is the point of holding on to Correia? Is his talent so large that he is not replaceable? The Twins signed two pitchers this winter and can do so again next off season. Meanwhile you can get a prospect or three back. Maybe those prospects won't be superstars but even fourth OF's and AAAA pitchers have value. It's also entirely possible that the "third tier" prospect improves and becomes an every day player or rotation capable pitcher. Prospects are not commodities with preordained futures.

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I agree completely.

 

I agree as well. Correia is a proven #4 pitcher which we are lacking and for 4mil, is pretty cheap. Keep him which allows you to really evaluate Diamond and Deduno for 2014. Right now I see our 2014 pitching as Gibson, Correia, Deduno, ???, and ???. Because of that, I think Correia is more valuable to the Twins than what the market seems to be offering.

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What is the point of holding on to Correia? Is his talent so large that he is not replaceable? The Twins signed two pitchers this winter and can do so again next off season. Meanwhile you can get a prospect or three back. Maybe those prospects won't be superstars but even fourth OF's and AAAA pitchers have value. It's also entirely possible that the "third tier" prospect improves and becomes an every day player or rotation capable pitcher. Prospects are not commodities with preordained futures.

 

I agree. There is going to be 20-30 free agent pitchers available during the offseason as good or better than Correia. He should be easily replaced.

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I agree as well. Correia is a proven #4 pitcher which we are lacking and for 4mil, is pretty cheap. Keep him which allows you to really evaluate Diamond and Deduno for 2014. Right now I see our 2014 pitching as Gibson, Correia, Deduno, ???, and ???. Because of that, I think Correia is more valuable to the Twins than what the market seems to be offering.

 

Correia had an unbelievable first 5 starts to his season. In his last 12 starts however he is sporting an ERA of 5.22. Opponents are hitting .318/.356/.541/.897 off him. He has a WHIP of 1.536. Frankly, unless he puts up another 3 decent starts I think he is probably unmovable. Look at it this way. Hitters he faces turn into Evan Longoria.

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Correia's main value is his ability to save the bullpen a couple innings. Might not seem like much, but over the course of a season, it's significant.

 

So do you believe that Correia has some unique talent that allows him to go deeper into ballgames than the FA's on the market this upcoming off season? Or are you suggesting the Twins should be making decisions about the future based on how it will affect the bullpen this year? Or have I missed your point?

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