Hicks' march toward the Mendoza

[jokin]

Hicks has until Sept 2014 at the earliest before he needs to worry about Buxton.

 

Maybe...maybe not...

[greengoblinrulz]

Maybe...maybe not...

Agree.....I believe Aaron is gonna get some RF experience before next July

[Badsmerf]

I'm fine with Hicks playing now. It would be helpful for him to be in AAA for a little while, but the Twins are committed to playing him and I'm over it.

 

Everyone seems to think he is going to develop into something special. At this point, defense doesn't get that much better. He is a below average defender now, and will probably turn into an average defender in CF and above average at a corner when Buxton is up (assuming he starts hitting better). I'm just having a hard time assuming he is going to develop much more. He might hover around a .700+ OPS with his power, but as a corner OF, that just isn't going to cut it.

 

Hicks might take a while to finally develop into what many think he can be. Will the Twins be patient enough to wait him out? A .700 OPS and average defense will be fine until Buxton comes up, possibly sooner than later. I don't think anyone should be thinking of him as a CF for more than this season and next. From what I've seen of Buxton, he is an amazing CF... and has a nice smile.

[Bark's Lounge]

This is pretty much angled at the Hicks is not gonna amount to "bleep" posters.

 

This site is good because everyone had their own opinion and obviously is willing to share it and I most definitely respect those opinions.

 

The guy is 23 and was a mid-1st round draft choice with a raw 5-Tool upside. How the hell does anyone know how this guy is going to pan out? It's his rookie year and he skipped a level. We needed him to fill the spot and that is what he is doing. It was awful at first, but then became stomachable, and where we are at now it is okay.

 

This guy could be a 30/30 guy someday. He also could fizzle out and become a 4th outfielder. None of us have a clue how his progression will turn out, if he is able to hit 20 HR's with a .350+OBP he can definitely fill a corner OF spot.

 

I guess the point of me posting this, is that I hope people are cheering for him to succeed. If there are TD participants who get joy off of seeing him fail... that Bleeping sucks!

 

The jury is a long time away from making their final judgement on this young man.

 

Champion Hicks, hope for the greatest possible outcome. We are all still Twins fans... right?

[Kwak]

My guess on Hicks is that he stays--and plays--and next year he hits 15+ HR and has a .270 BAVG. Then the Twins trade him! We've yet to see how the last CF for pitcher trades pan out, so it will likely take 2-3 more years to see if that one works to the Twins favor. I'm hopeful, but skeptical.

[Thrylos]

This is pretty much angled at the Hicks is not gonna amount to "bleep" posters.

 

This site is good because everyone had their own opinion and obviously is willing to share it and I most definitely respect those opinions.

 

The guy is 23 and was a mid-1st round draft choice with a raw 5-Tool upside.

 

Totally agreed

 

Same people who gave up on Gomez ...

[THE DFC]

He might eventually become an above average defender, but IMHO he's been, at best average. His reads and reactions are terrible. He can often make up for that, but sometimes not. I'd grade him below average right now.

 

BTW, average CF in MLB has a 726 OPS. Hicks OPS by month:

 

APR - 356

MAY - 708

JUN - 709

JUL - 690

 

i don't see a ton of evidence that beyond that dismal 1st month, he's taking some huge step forward. I'd be fine with him spending time in AAA and giving Clete/Antoan a chance.

 

Aaron Hicks actually has a 721 OPS in July.

 

Hicks is 23-year-old former 1st round pick, regarded with having 5 tool potential, has consistently been a top 10 Twins prospect and top 100 prospect and who notoriously starts off slow in every new league.

 

Right as he is obviously becoming settled in the bigs (at least from a composure stand point...which is obviously huge), you advocate sending him down to AAA in favor of CLETE THOMAS, a 29-year-old career AAA guy fresh off an OPS of .686 in Rochester last year and touting a .727 OPS in the bigs this season (a whole 6 points above Hicks this month).

 

The context of this move is to do so in a garbage season where the Twins are already 11 games below .500 and certainly don't have anything from a rotation standpoint to even remotely consider being realistically competitive this season.

 

That is pure insanity.

 

And, to the poster that inferred that Hicks will never play smarter and track balls better in the OF at this stage in his career, that is sincerely the most ludicrous statement I've ever heard. No, he won't become Willie Mays (that's obvious), but with his raw speed and terrific arm, it's really obvious that he's not even close to his potential. The reason he's not even close to his potential is because his anticipation and angles just aren't even close to optimal yet, but aren't those the very things that come with any athletic experience? Give him, say, 200 more games in the big and move him to RF when Buxton comes up, and given his tools combined with his added experience, I think it's far more likely that he becomes a strong plus defensive player.

 

The development of tools into production is certainly never an exact science, but given Hicks' past production in the minors and the probability to create results from advanced tools historically with major league prospects (especially those with a good head on their shoulders), to be "down" on Hicks is unreasonable and silly.

 

And, to advocate that he shouldn't get the opportunity to develop into a productive major league with the "big boys" at Target Field over the course of this season and the next when we will obviously be simultaneously non-realistiacally competitive and finding ways to integrate the next strong wave of young talent in Arcia, Sano, Rosario, Pinto and hopefully Buxton is really poor, micro-based logic and makes me even wonder if there are other outside factors that I'm not aware of that are contributing to one making such a flat-out bizarre statement.

[TheLeviathan]

I think we'll see him become a very fine hitter in time, but I am a bit concerned about his defense. When you watched Torii and Gomez early on you could see the ++ instincts, positioning, and ability. They just looked so smooth and natural out there.

 

Hicks, by contrast, looks clunky and disjointed. He doesn't appear smooth, fluid, or particularly instinctual. Maybe it's nerves or the atmosphere at big league parks or trying to adjust to the larger stadiums where you're watching the ball through fans behind the plate moreso than in minor league parks....but I think it's fair to say he hasn't been impressive in CF. Certainly not what I had expected from scouting reports.

[LaBombo]

This is pretty much angled at the Hicks is not gonna amount to "bleep" posters.

Well' date=' that was a coherent and thoughtful preemptive argument, should anyone post something like that.

 

There's a post or two by smerf concerning the possibility that Hicks may turn out to be a 4th OF. Although that sounds a bit pessimistic to me, it's hardly some sort of crazy, outrageous floor when discussing Hicks.

 

First off, a good 4th OF isn't "bleep", he can be a valuable player who may approach NBA 6th man importance on some teams, especially one that needs to DH an aging, defensively-challenged corner OF more frequently. On the other hand, if you simply meant that Hicks as a 4th OF would feel like a "bleep" outcome after the years of Twins PR and prospect ranking hype, then that's absolutely understandable and I would agree.

 

Second, smerf also emphasized that Hicks may end up as a 4th OF more as a result of the Twins' system-wide depth in the outfield than due to any possible lack of potential. With Arcia virtually a lock for one corner and Buxton the heir apparent in center, Hicks may need to either hit like a corner OF or develop into a kind of rich man's Ben Revere corner defense savant in order to crack the starting lineup when Buxton arrives, which may be a only a year or so away. Either of those outcomes is possible, and wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

 

Is it to early to evaluate where Hicks will end up as a player, both in terms of overall value and defensive position? Sure it is. Is everyone pulling for him to improve and play an important role on an eventual contender? Absolutely, as far as I can see.

 

But with his defensive issues in center and his continuing awful contact rate vs RHP, a problem which plagued him throughout most of his minor league career, it's not too early to mention the [i']possibility [/i]that he may top out as less than a star, or even average, CF or corner OF.

[Bark's Lounge]

Well, that was a coherent and thoughtful preemptive argument, should anyone post something like that.

 

There's a post or two by smerf concerning the possibility that Hicks may turn out to be a 4th OF. Although that sounds a bit pessimistic to me, it's hardly some sort of crazy, outrageous floor when discussing Hicks.

 

First off, a good 4th OF isn't "bleep", he can be a valuable player who may approach NBA 6th man importance on some teams, especially one that needs to DH an aging, defensively-challenged corner OF more frequently. On the other hand, if you simply meant that Hicks as a 4th OF would feel like a "bleep" outcome after the years of Twins PR and prospect ranking hype, then that's absolutely understandable and I would agree.

 

Second, smerf also emphasized that Hicks may end up as a 4th OF more as a result of the Twins' system-wide depth in the outfield than due to any possible lack of potential. With Arcia virtually a lock for one corner and Buxton the heir apparent in center, Hicks may need to either hit like a corner OF or develop into a kind of rich man's Ben Revere corner defense savant in order to crack the starting lineup when Buxton arrives, which may be a only a year or so away. Either of those outcomes is possible, and wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

 

Is it to early to evaluate where Hicks will end up as a player, both in terms of overall value and defensive position? Sure it is. Is everyone pulling for him to improve and play an important role on an eventual contender? Absolutely, as far as I can see.

 

But with his defensive issues in center and his continuing awful contact rate vs RHP, a problem which plagued him throughout most of his minor league career, it's not too early the mention the possibility that he may top out as less than a star, or even average, CF or corner OF.

 

LaBombo,

 

In my time here on this site, I have appreciated your comments. Whether I disagree with them sometimes... who cares. I guess I would believe that everyone on this site has some kind of disagreement.

 

I have no issue with Smerf. By no means was I pointing out Smerf as the antagonizer.

 

Your post did nothing to change my mind, change my vision of what could be, or change whether Hicks will be a solid major leaguer or not. That was never for sale.

 

I am not in the business of selling things. I like it when people come to their own conclusions.

 

Sometimes you need to let it ride and come to conclusions about a players development a few years into it.

 

I am not even sure you disagree with me - you know what I said in my previous post is true. Like I said before - LaBombo, you are a valued member of this site, and I personally like most of what you put out there.

 

Hicks needs some time to prove his worth... and I feel pretty certain it will happen. When... Who knows?

[LaBombo]

Aaron Hicks actually has a 721 OPS in July.

 

Hicks is 23-year-old former 1st round pick, regarded with having 5 tool potential, has consistently been a top 10 Twins prospect and top 100 prospect and who notoriously starts off slow in every new league.

 

Right as he is obviously becoming settled in the bigs (at least from a composure stand point...which is obviously huge), you advocate sending him down to AAA in favor of CLETE THOMAS, a 29-year-old career AAA guy fresh off an OPS of .686 in Rochester last year and touting a .727 OPS in the bigs this season (a whole 6 points above Hicks this month).

 

The context of this move is to do so in a garbage season where the Twins are already 11 games below .500 and certainly don't have anything from a rotation standpoint to even remotely consider being realistically competitive this season.

 

That is pure insanity.

 

Let's set aside the fact that since it's a "garbage season", then the output 'lost' by possibly replacing a demoted Hicks with a player who has played better than Hicks this season is pretty much meaningless.

 

Where you're losing me is when you admit that it would be reasonable to have expected Hicks to struggle in AAA to start the year, then play the 'insane' card when someone dares to suggest he may benefit from time there after struggling to hit his weight and not look like a squirrel on a busy highway once or twice a game in center.

 

If you're worried about addressing low sanity levels, maybe you could start with the people in the Twins organization who thought that the kid who struggled to adapt to every level should skip a level.

 

And, to the poster that inferred that Hicks will never play smarter and track balls better in the OF at this stage in his career, that is sincerely the most ludicrous statement I've ever heard. No, he won't become Willie Mays (that's obvious), but with his raw speed and terrific arm, it's really obvious that he's not even close to his potential. The reason he's not even close to his potential is because his anticipation and angles just aren't even close to optimal yet, but aren't those the very things that come with any athletic experience? Give him, say, 200 more games in the big and move him to RF when Buxton comes up...

 

Hicks played has played nearly 500 games in center in the minors. How much better do you expect him to get in the next 200? Seriously, how often do players with that many games in a single outfield position improve dramatically because they play one more season there? Infield, maybe. Outfield? Not a very good bet.

 

The development of tools into production is certainly never an exact science, but given Hicks' past production in the minors and the probability to create results from advanced tools historically with major league prospects (especially those with a good head on their shoulders), to be "down" on Hicks is unreasonable and silly.

 

He's batting a buck ninety halfway through the season, strikes out in over 27 percent of his AB's, and has struggled on defense. And yet he was supposed to be so good that the preseason notion of starting him at AAA due to service time considerations and therefore depriving veteran players of the chance for the Twins to be competitive that Hicks' tools were supposed to provide practically brought Terry Ryan to tears in an interview. Being down a little bit on Hicks at the moment and more than a little on the organization for how they've handled him seems pretty reasonable to me.

 

And, to advocate that he shouldn't get the opportunity to develop into a productive major league with the "big boys" at Target Field over the course of this season and the next when we will obviously be simultaneously non-realistiacally competitive and finding ways to integrate the next strong wave of young talent in Arcia, Sano, Rosario, Pinto and hopefully Buxton is really poor, micro-based logic and makes me even wonder if there are other outside factors that I'm not aware of that are contributing to one making such a flat-out bizarre statement.

 

That would be a "bizarre statement", if someone had actually made it. People have suggested a couple of months in AAA for Hicks to work on his game. With the exception of Arcia, the guys you mentioned won't be here for one or two years, for heaven's sake. What the hell does that have to do with where Hicks spends July and August?

[LaBombo]

I am not even sure you disagree with me - you know what I said in my previous post is true. Like I said before - LaBombo' date=' you are a valued member of this site, and I personally like most of what you put out there.

 

Hicks needs some time to prove his worth... and I feel pretty certain it will happen. When... Who knows?[/quote']

 

Fair enough, and yes, we agree as much as we disagree about Hicks. Maybe even closer to 60/40. Not even really trying to change your mind about the 40 disagree part, just clear up some of what's already out there.

 

Valued member? Pffft. As recently as two weeks ago an inside source told me that a deal to trade me to a Blue Jays board for a C- mod prospect fell through only because the TD bigwigs wouldn't throw in cash to make it happen, and Toronto was worried I wouldn't clear customs. Thanks, though. You too.

[Nick Nelson]

Hicks has a history of starting slow at a new level, and then adapting over time. It should come as no surprise that, as a 23-year-old shipped directly from Double-A, he struggled early on. But we're seeing clear signs of progress. For all the strange fuss made over him being called up after hitting .190 during a six-game rehab stint, he's looked pretty dang good at the plate since returning. I'm pleasantly surprised by the power he's flashed -- he's on about an 18-HR full season pace as a rookie. I do wonder if ultimately he'd be better off ditching the switch-hitting; his swing is so much better from the right side and he's currently getting only 20 percent of his PAs there.

 

I don't get the negative reviews of his defense. He's misplayed a few balls, but hasn't let many drop that should have been caught. He has also made some flat-out spectacular plays, and nobody wants to run on his arm. If you guys are comparing him to Hunter and Gomez you're just not being realistic. Not everyone is going to be elite. I'd say Hicks is no worse than Span.

[TheLeviathan]

If you guys are comparing him to Hunter and Gomez you're just not being realistic. Not everyone is going to be elite. I'd say Hicks is no worse than Span.

 

Haven't the Twins and many evaluators comped him to Hunter? And I guess I've always heard along his way up that he was a plus or plus-plus defender. (BA called him a "premium" defender) So, it's not so much picking an elite standard to hold him too, it's more just continuing the comps that have followed him during his minor league career.

 

Maybe I'm just imagining those comps.

[Nick Nelson]

Now we're judging players based on their high-end comps? Does that mean Byron Buxton is a bust if he's not Ken Griffey Jr?

 

There's a long way between Torii Hunter and average. The guy has nine Gold Gloves.

[TheLeviathan]

Now we're judging players based on their high-end comps? Does that mean Byron Buxton is a bust if he's not Ken Griffey Jr?

 

There's a long way between Torii Hunter and average. The guy has nine Gold Gloves.

 

Ok...well you're welcome to go back and read what I actually wrote. Never called him a bust or implied anything of the sort. I simply stated that he doesn't look to be the Hunter-like defender that some suggested. He also doesn't look to be a "premium" defensive CF at this point like BA called him as a prospect.

 

At this point the eye test is that he's average and the stats show that to be about right. He might well get better, but his defensive game hasn't met the hype thus far. That's as far as my point goes, no need to strawman it past that.

[Badsmerf]

Other than smoothing some of the edges on defense, what does he have to develop? After 5 years of professional ball at CF he is suddenly going to start taking great routes and get great jumps? No, this guy will never be a premium defender like the Twins hyped him up to be. I can live with that, and so should everyone else.

 

My biggest point is, people need to be realistic about what to expect from Hicks and what he can develop into. An average CF on offense (which could be above average) and defense isn't a piece of scrap. His bat might play at a corner spot, and if it doesn't he will be a 4th OF or traded. I think he has the power, he just doesn't make contact enough. Drop switch hitting and I'll like his chances a lot more.

 

Guys like him are valuable to teams with super stars. He fits in the same category as Plouffe IMO. I like Plouffe a lot. I think Plouffe should be part of the Twins next great team. I'm guessing Hicks will be too and hopefully his bat can play as a starter in a corner. I'm just not going to make that leap yet. 23 year old in the MLB or not, the age vs. level ideal always has exceptions.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I still think Hicks can be an above avg. CF, and he's got at least another year, if not 2 to prove it. The Twins will be forced to make a choice once Buxton and Arcia have cemented spots and Kepler is forcing the issue. I'm guessing that means Hicks has 2 more years to develop. He could turn into an above average OF, or find himself as a 4th OF, but it will be his style of play that forces it. If everyone develops, a arb-eligible Hicks will still fetch something of value to plug an existing hole... This last offseason proved that, as Hicks has potential to combine the best parts of both Span and Revere's game into one player.

[THE DFC]

Let's set aside the fact that since it's a "garbage season", then the output 'lost' by possibly replacing a demoted Hicks with a player who has played better than Hicks this season is pretty much meaningless.

 

Where you're losing me is when you admit that it would be reasonable to have expected Hicks to struggle in AAA to start the year, then play the 'insane' card when someone dares to suggest he may benefit from time there after struggling to hit his weight and not look like a squirrel on a busy highway once or twice a game in center.

 

If you're worried about addressing low sanity levels, maybe you could start with the people in the Twins organization who thought that the kid who struggled to adapt to every level should skip a level.

 

You're missing a very, very critical point for the organization because the faster Hicks can develop and prove to be a quality major leaguer and a known commodity the more intelligent tactical moves the front office can make.

 

There's nothing worse than a talented question mark for a front office, and especially so when the question mark remains a question mark a multitude of consecutive season (see: Gomez, Carlos). Having known young known commodities that they have confidence in really allows a front office to be that much more strategic when planning and projecting out several seasons (which we have to be doing considering the age/success of the roster at big league level and the universal high regard for our farm system).

 

If we are to assume that Hicks's natural trend is to start off slow at each level, per both of our statements and his consistent history, that would leave Hicks just now turning it on in AAA, only to struggle again for the early part of the season next year in the bigs. In turn, now that he's up and playing everyday with the big club, he has gotten that historic transition/adaptation period out of the way and is establishing a certain level of comfort finally.

 

To say that this doesn't hasten the speed of his potential development if he is to get there just doesn't make sense, in my opinion and defies his historical production curve. And, to say that speed of his potential establishment as serviceable or greater everyday guy isn't really valuable to the future of our team just is a misunderstanding of how to optimally plan for the future...especially when we have Arcia, Buxton, Rosario (2B or OF), Kepler and even Plouffe and Parmalee to consider as cornerstone outfielders.

 

Hicks played has played nearly 500 games in center in the minors. How much better do you expect him to get in the next 200? Seriously, how often do players with that many games in a single outfield position improve dramatically because they play one more season there? Infield, maybe. Outfield? Not a very good bet.

 

I'm not sure because you seem to be inferring that he has not improved at all in those 500 games in the minors. Without knowing exactly how his improvement in center has gone along the way, it's hard to make a precise estimation.

 

I do remember, especially coming out of high school, that Hicks was said to be quite raw in the outfield outside of his terrific physical tools, so I think it stands to reason that he at least incrementally improved over the course of those 500 games and will continue to do so.

 

It's not like he's a horrific outfielder (he's definitely not at all). To me, it's just clear that he's still young and inexperienced. MLB pitchers and hitters have a lot more velocity and spin on their respective pitches and hits, so once again, to anticipate there will be no learning curve in tracking the ball off the bat is on the wrong side of probability, in my opinion.

 

I would go so far as to say this another reason I'm happy he's up in the bigs now and should stay here. The quicker he can adapt to manning a major league outfield, the more valuable he is to the team for very obvious reasons.

 

 

He's batting a buck ninety halfway through the season, strikes out in over 27 percent of his AB's, and has struggled on defense. And yet he was supposed to be so good that the preseason notion of starting him at AAA due to service time considerations and therefore depriving veteran players of the chance for the Twins to be competitive that Hicks' tools were supposed to provide practically brought Terry Ryan to tears in an interview. Being down a little bit on Hicks at the moment and more than a little on the organization for how they've handled him seems pretty reasonable to me.

 

You have no argument from me here. What we've seen from Hicks in June/July is pretty much what I expected from him for this season, and that's where I believe I differ from what management's expectations are/where.

 

Where I differ with you and many others appears to be in my belief that I think he's someone that takes awhile to calibrate with the enhanced competition he faces (he has continuously shown this to be true throughout his young career) . However, I think he's so talented that he can ultimately calibrate at 23-years-old in the major leagues now, and I think he's starting to prove me right.

 

If we can skip a level (AAA) and have him calibrate several months are even a year or more quicker, that is absolutely fantastic. This major league ball club being what it is certainly allows for this type of scenario because Hicks's calibration period ultimately isn't going to cost us a playoff birth or any level of contention.

 

The development of a player, as I said previously, is obviously an extremely delicate balance. Carlos Gomez's handling by the New York Mets shows us exactly what can happen if a player is rushed way before his time, but in turn (and especially as Twins fans), I think guys with major physical skills and solid mental perspectives can handle being pushed and challenged. For me, Hicks looks like he's just now starting to tread water, so to push him back a level like John Bonnes recommended just doesn't make sense to me one bit. I don't see how it's good for his psyche (I think the psyche aspect could be pretty disastrous actually) or for the speed of his development.

 

That would be a "bizarre statement", if someone had actually made it. People have suggested a couple of months in AAA for Hicks to work on his game. With the exception of Arcia, the guys you mentioned won't be here for one or two years, for heaven's sake. What the hell does that have to do with where Hicks spends July and August?

 

I clearly addressed this in the first part of this response. It actually matters quite a bit.

 

Listen, I get where you are coming from because you certainly seem to acknowledge that Hicks's development is a giant question mark--which it is. I understand you wanting to be conservative with him, and I think my stance is simply rooted in having more faith in his raw tools than you.

 

If you take a look at the depth charts across the majors, there are a ton of guys that have had and/or are having solid to great success with merely a portion of the raw talent Hicks has. Now that I see Hicks getting comfortable, I want to see him everyday with the Twins, learning, developing, "calibrating" and hopefully translating those raw abilities to definable success as fast as possible. That happening isn't a certainty either, but once again, with those raw tools, the likelihood is still pretty great.

[THE DFC]

Hicks has a history of starting slow at a new level, and then adapting over time. It should come as no surprise that, as a 23-year-old shipped directly from Double-A, he struggled early on. But we're seeing clear signs of progress. For all the strange fuss made over him being called up after hitting .190 during a six-game rehab stint, he's looked pretty dang good at the plate since returning. I'm pleasantly surprised by the power he's flashed -- he's on about an 18-HR full season pace as a rookie. I do wonder if ultimately he'd be better off ditching the switch-hitting; his swing is so much better from the right side and he's currently getting only 20 percent of his PAs there.

 

I don't get the negative reviews of his defense. He's misplayed a few balls, but hasn't let many drop that should have been caught. He has also made some flat-out spectacular plays, and nobody wants to run on his arm. If you guys are comparing him to Hunter and Gomez you're just not being realistic. Not everyone is going to be elite. I'd say Hicks is no worse than Span.

 

This is almost exactly what I'm seeing and perhaps why I'm more optimistic than some.

 

Nick, you also raise a great point which I've seen discussed regarding Hicks every years--why does he switch hit? As you said, his right handed swing is quite a bit better, and I think it looks like he tracks the ball better from that side, as well.

 

Do you know if switch-hitting is something that Hicks himself is insistent on, or is it just something that the organization is giving time and patience to because they really that flexibility to work out?

[stringer bell]

I just saw a replay of Hicks' HR today in Toronto. I think his LH swing there was just fine. I do think he has taken better ABs righthanded, but hitting lefty is such a large advantage, it shouldn't be forfeited. I can't think of a single player who scrapped switch hitting and was a markedly better hitter. It could well be that if Hicks hit only righty he could become platoon fodder and a right handed hitter in a platoon is more accurately referred to as a "bench player". Hicks' lefty hitting has always lagged, but his R/L splits last year were fairly equal IIRC. Roy Smalley, a successful major league switch-hitter, pooh-poohed dropping LH at bats for Hicks and Roy should know something about that.

[jokin]

This is almost exactly what I'm seeing and perhaps why I'm more optimistic than some.

 

Nick, you also raise a great point which I've seen discussed regarding Hicks every years--why does he switch hit? As you said, his right handed swing is quite a bit better, and I think it looks like he tracks the ball better from that side, as well.

 

Do you know if switch-hitting is something that Hicks himself is insistent on, or is it just something that the organization is giving time and patience to because they really that flexibility to work out?

 

Hicks' father instilled him on switch-hitting from a very early age- it appears to be a non-negotiable for him......; although in listening to Gardy on his radio show this morning, he supposedly invoked the Ghost of Chili Davis to Aaron (Chili supposedly thought it up himself that batting from the same side as a knuckleballer would yield an advantage to the hitter), to convince Hicks that he, too, would be at an advantage batting RHed against the knuckleballer, RA Dickey.

 

Any more Ghosts the Twins can invoke to aid in the Hicks Calibration Process?

[jokin]

You're missing a very, very critical point for the organization because the faster Hicks can develop and prove to be a quality major leaguer and a known commodity the more intelligent tactical moves the front office can make.

 

There's nothing worse than a talented question mark for a front office, and especially so when the question mark remains a question mark a multitude of consecutive season (see: Gomez, Carlos). Having known young known commodities that they have confidence in really allows a front office to be that much more strategic when planning and projecting out several seasons (which we have to be doing considering the age/success of the roster at big league level and the universal high regard for our farm system).

 

If we are to assume that Hicks's natural trend is to start off slow at each level, per both of our statements and his consistent history, that would leave Hicks just now turning it on in AAA, only to struggle again for the early part of the season next year in the bigs. In turn, now that he's up and playing everyday with the big club, he has gotten that historic transition/adaptation period out of the way and is establishing a certain level of comfort finally.

 

To say that this doesn't hasten the speed of his potential development if he is to get there just doesn't make sense, in my opinion and defies his historical production curve. And, to say that speed of his potential establishment as serviceable or greater everyday guy isn't really valuable to the future of our team just is a misunderstanding of how to optimally plan for the future...especially when we have Arcia, Buxton, Rosario (2B or OF), Kepler and even Plouffe and Parmalee to consider as cornerstone outfielders.

 

 

 

I'm not sure because you seem to be inferring that he has not improved at all in those 500 games in the minors. Without knowing exactly how his improvement in center has gone along the way, it's hard to make a precise estimation.

 

I do remember, especially coming out of high school, that Hicks was said to be quite raw in the outfield outside of his terrific physical tools, so I think it stands to reason that he at least incrementally improved over the course of those 500 games and will continue to do so.

 

It's not like he's a horrific outfielder (he's definitely not at all). To me, it's just clear that he's still young and inexperienced. MLB pitchers and hitters have a lot more velocity and spin on their respective pitches and hits, so once again, to anticipate there will be no learning curve in tracking the ball off the bat is on the wrong side of probability, in my opinion.

 

I would go so far as to say this another reason I'm happy he's up in the bigs now and should stay here. The quicker he can adapt to manning a major league outfield, the more valuable he is to the team for very obvious reasons.

 

 

 

 

You have no argument from me here. What we've seen from Hicks in June/July is pretty much what I expected from him for this season, and that's where I believe I differ from what management's expectations are/where.

 

Where I differ with you and many others appears to be in my belief that I think he's someone that takes awhile to calibrate with the enhanced competition he faces (he has continuously shown this to be true throughout his young career) . However, I think he's so talented that he can ultimately calibrate at 23-years-old in the major leagues now, and I think he's starting to prove me right.

 

If we can skip a level (AAA) and have him calibrate several months are even a year or more quicker, that is absolutely fantastic. This major league ball club being what it is certainly allows for this type of scenario because Hicks's calibration period ultimately isn't going to cost us a playoff birth or any level of contention.

 

The development of a player, as I said previously, is obviously an extremely delicate balance. Carlos Gomez's handling by the New York Mets shows us exactly what can happen if a player is rushed way before his time, but in turn (and especially as Twins fans), I think guys with major physical skills and solid mental perspectives can handle being pushed and challenged. For me, Hicks looks like he's just now starting to tread water, so to push him back a level like John Bonnes recommended just doesn't make sense to me one bit. I don't see how it's good for his psyche (I think the psyche aspect could be pretty disastrous actually) or for the speed of his development.

 

 

 

I clearly addressed this in the first part of this response. It actually matters quite a bit.

 

Listen, I get where you are coming from because you certainly seem to acknowledge that Hicks's development is a giant question mark--which it is. I understand you wanting to be conservative with him, and I think my stance is simply rooted in having more faith in his raw tools than you.

 

If you take a look at the depth charts across the majors, there are a ton of guys that have had and/or are having solid to great success with merely a portion of the raw talent Hicks has. Now that I see Hicks getting comfortable, I want to see him everyday with the Twins, learning, developing, "calibrating" and hopefully translating those raw abilities to definable success as fast as possible. That happening isn't a certainty either, but once again, with those raw tools, the likelihood is still pretty great.

 

SPEED and CALIBRATION

 

Just a musing on my part after reading your colorful post, are you in any way related to that "SPEED guy" who started that rather entertaining trope back in Spring Training? The forum was in definite need for a new trope. Let's see how we run with it. Thankyou.

[Kwak]

I just saw a replay of Hicks' HR today in Toronto. I think his LH swing there was just fine. I do think he has taken better ABs righthanded, but hitting lefty is such a large advantage, it shouldn't be forfeited. I can't think of a single player who scrapped switch hitting and was a markedly better hitter. It could well be that if Hicks hit only righty he could become platoon fodder and a right handed hitter in a platoon is more accurately referred to as a "bench player". Hicks' lefty hitting has always lagged, but his R/L splits last year were fairly equal IIRC. Roy Smalley, a successful major league switch-hitter, pooh-poohed dropping LH at bats for Hicks and Roy should know something about that.

 

Smalley's comment was about Florimon switching to batting LH only. He did include that it would apply to others. IIRC, during Hicks' April "struggles", announcers were saying RH is his "better" side. I think he should continue switch-hitting.

[DaveW]

Using UZR for a guy like hicks is a terrible way to judge his defensive "skills" this year, much of the year he has been dealing with human statue brad Johnson....I mean Josh Willingham in LF and often times with Parmelee in RF (who while a bit of a surprise this year, isn't exactly a guy with a lot of range)

 

Hicks will be fine defensively, the fact he has been having a .700 OPS after that start is encouraging, even more encouraging is his power seems to be coming around, add that with the speed and what should be a continued improvement in the BA and OBP categories and we could be looking at a guy who gives us nice defense, a .730-.760 OPS with 15 HR and 25 SB in the future.

 

That is NOT a 4th OF, that is basically someone who falls between Span and Hunter in terms of "skills)

[JB_Iowa]

As of this morning, Hicks' July OPS is .824

 

Do I think that means that he has suddenly made a giant leap forward since his injury? No.

 

But it does confirm that much of the discussion in this thread is totally off the mark. There is NO reason to rush to judgment on Hicks. At a minimum, we should be able to see how the rest of this year plays out -- then we can judge what progress he has made in the field and at the plate.

 

For those of you who think he'll soon be replaced in the field by other prospects in the Twins system, just remember that there is a lot that can happen at every level of the system. Some of those vaunted prospects that you're salivating over may not pan out. If they do, then all the better, the Twins have more trade bait.

 

I just don't get not letting a prospect/rookie play or why this thread has taken such a negative turn regarding Aaron Hicks.

 

Personally I like getting a glimpse of the future when I see Hicks and Arcia and Dozier and Parmelee and even Plouffe come to the plate. It's a heck of a lot more interesting to me than clinging to the past.

[howieramone1406390264]

As of this morning, Hicks' July OPS is .824

 

Do I think that means that he has suddenly made a giant leap forward since his injury? No.

 

But it does confirm that much of the discussion in this thread is totally off the mark. There is NO reason to rush to judgment on Hicks. At a minimum, we should be able to see how the rest of this year plays out -- then we can judge what progress he has made in the field and at the plate.

 

For those of you who think he'll soon be replaced in the field by other prospects in the Twins system, just remember that there is a lot that can happen at every level of the system. Some of those vaunted prospects that you're salivating over may not pan out. If they do, then all the better, the Twins have more trade bait.

 

I just don't get not letting a prospect/rookie play or why this thread has taken such a negative turn regarding Aaron Hicks.

 

Personally I like getting a glimpse of the future when I see Hicks and Arcia and Dozier and Parmelee and even Plouffe come to the plate. It's a heck of a lot more interesting to me than clinging to the past.

I completely agree with you, but it's just the nature of fan boards. Thielbar is kind of the flavor of the day. I'm just hoping no one takes the opportunity to start criticizing Ryan for not trading Sano when his value was highest.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just don't get not letting a prospect/rookie play or why this thread has taken such a negative turn regarding Aaron Hicks.

 

I don't get it but it's how things play out on message boards. No matter how many times we go through these same arguments over young players, there will still be people who cast judgment after 200 PAs at the beginning of a guy's career. It's maddening, really.

 

See Kubel, Jason... Cuddyer, Michael... Bartlett, Jason... Morneau, Justin... Young, Delmon...

 

One of those guys was a bust but I heard multiple people calling for the heads of every guy on that list at one point or another.

 

Honestly, it makes me want to scream.

[Siehbiscuit]

Aaron Hicks will be fine. It's his first time through the league and its time for him to make adjustments. I think Bruno will get Hicks swinging better and better as the season progresses. ALthough, I have always wanted to see better L/R splits.

[stringer bell]

As of this morning, Hicks' July OPS is .824

 

Do I think that means that he has suddenly made a giant leap forward since his injury? No.

 

But it does confirm that much of the discussion in this thread is totally off the mark. There is NO reason to rush to judgment on Hicks. At a minimum, we should be able to see how the rest of this year plays out -- then we can judge what progress he has made in the field and at the plate.

 

For those of you who think he'll soon be replaced in the field by other prospects in the Twins system, just remember that there is a lot that can happen at every level of the system. Some of those vaunted prospects that you're salivating over may not pan out. If they do, then all the better, the Twins have more trade bait.

 

I just don't get not letting a prospect/rookie play or why this thread has taken such a negative turn regarding Aaron Hicks.

 

Personally I like getting a glimpse of the future when I see Hicks and Arcia and Dozier and Parmelee and even Plouffe come to the plate. It's a heck of a lot more interesting to me than clinging to the past.

I have said since the beginning of the season that 2013 was about not-quite-rookies development--Florimon, Dozier, Plouffe, Parmelee--and the rookies (Hicks and Arcia). I haven't abandoned hope for any of them and Plouffe certainly has done well.