Grading Terry Ryan

[TheLeviathan]

I think this article from the minor league thread is pretty relevant.

 

Like I said, way too many presumptions for my liking by many here, make your team better when you can.

[Dman]

A lot of interesting philosophy's on the subject of building a team. Really good ideas and great insight. In the end I put myself on Brock's side as it seems to me the way most teams with average to limited resources build there teams. The Pirates were bad for a long time but it looks like their plan of building a strong farm system through the draft and international signings is paying off now. The A's purged and rebuilt there system on pitching and never spend heavily in free agency and they appear to have one of the better teams in baseball now. The Yankee's and Angel's have spent heavily in free agency and are they really much better than teams built through the draft with time and patience? I think the Twins are doing this the right way. Build a strong core of young players and then spend away in free Agency to fill the few holes left. I think that is Ryan's philosophy for Free agency.

 

I understand the other arguments that we are capable of spending more to field a competitive team and that even if the team is still bad having assets to trade can net some extra prospects but I don't think those kind of prospects are going to make or break your club down the road.

 

If we are not going to be above 500 then I would prefer we lose as much as possible because we will have a better shot at a true star and difference maker in the draft. Next years draft is deep so picking high should net two quality players.

 

I agree with everyone that we are in deep trouble developing pitching. You can see that even in the Minor's our pitching is not as good as other teams especially at the higher levels. They need to everything they can to shore that up or even with the great position players coming up there prime years will be wasted losing 8-5. Make sure we have a team of position players who can really compete and then use free agency to buy the extra pitching you need. Otherwise keep trying to build through the draft and pick high to find stars.

[ThePuck]

A lot of interesting philosophy's on the subject of building a team. Really good ideas and great insight. In the end I put myself on Brock's side as it seems to me the way most teams with average to limited resources build there teams. The Pirates were bad for a long time but it looks like their plan of building a strong farm system through the draft and international signings is paying off now. The A's purged and rebuilt there system on pitching and never spend heavily in free agency and they appear to have one of the better teams in baseball now. The Yankee's and Angel's have spent heavily in free agency and are they really much better than teams built through the draft with time and patience? I think the Twins are doing this the right way. Build a strong core of young players and then spend away in free Agency to fill the few holes left. I think that is Ryan's philosophy for Free agency.

 

I understand the other arguments that we are capable of spending more to field a competitive team and that even if the team is still bad having assets to trade can net some extra prospects but I don't think those kind of prospects are going to make or break your club down the road.

 

If we are not going to be above 500 then I would prefer we lose as much as possible because we will have a better shot at a true star and difference maker in the draft. Next years draft is deep so picking high should net two quality players.

 

I agree with everyone that we are in deep trouble developing pitching. You can see that even in the Minor's our pitching is not as good as other teams especially at the higher levels. They need to everything they can to shore that up or even with the great position players coming up there prime years will be wasted losing 8-5. Make sure we have a team of position players who can really compete and then use free agency to buy the extra pitching you need. Otherwise keep trying to build through the draft and pick high to find stars.

 

Pirates haven't been in the playoffs for twenty years and counting. I'm not sure using them as a model is a good idea.

 

I don't think anyone is saying building our team using the farm system isn't the best way, either.

[gunnarthor]

Probably not a lot less than a 31-32 year old Anibal, I'd wager.

 

Honestly, why do you think that? What evidence do you have - outside of wishful thinking - that Sanchez is going to be a healthy pitcher in 3 years? He's never been durable and he's already having shoulder injuries in year one of his contract. Ignoring the PED pitchers, many, many pitchers are done as remotely effective pitchers by that age. Radke, Santana, Steib, Clement, Meche, Zito etc. What do you see in Sanchez that makes you think he'll turn into a durable pitcher or buck the normal aging trends?

[Dman]

I agree using the Pirates is a dangerous analogy but the Philosophy is the same. It seems like often times in Baseball you have to get really, really bad to get good. If you are in the middle you tend to stay in the middle until you finally get really, really bad. I am sure there are exceptions and some teams take longer to rebound than others but unless you are going to spend like the Yankee's, Angels, and Dodgers then I think really, really bad is the way to go as it gives you a chance that if build correctly and get a little lucky then you can win a WS. Otherwise you just stay stuck in the middle.

[Willihammer]

Honestly, why do you think that? What evidence do you have - outside of wishful thinking - that Sanchez is going to be a healthy pitcher in 3 years? He's never been durable and he's already having shoulder injuries in year one of his contract. Ignoring the PED pitchers, many, many pitchers are done as remotely effective pitchers by that age. Radke, Santana, Steib, Clement, Meche, Zito etc. What do you see in Sanchez that makes you think he'll turn into a durable pitcher or buck the normal aging trends?

 

My evidence is... pretty much all the pitchers you just listed. If those are the worst case scenarios, well a lot of those scenarios aren't that bad, some of them are pretty dang good actually.

 

People seem to fear that even a "bust" like the ones you describe will doom the franchise but history shows that that's almost never the case.

[nicksaviking]

You field a crappy team but you do it without spending a dime.

 

Or you could sign a guy for $100m and he could blow his shoulder out in February.

 

Both situations end with a bad team but one has money and the other does not.

 

Now explain to me how the broke-ass team played the "less risky" hand. Please. Someone. Anyone.

 

The $100 million arguement is a bit loaded. The Twins DO sign free agents, just not good ones. Terry Ryan is afraid of signing one quality free agent and intead nickle and dimes the hired hands.

 

It's crazy to assume that the $13 million spent on Pelfrey, Correia and Carroll is more likely to yeild positive results than the $16 million spent on Sanchez. Everyone and their mother could predict that those three would produce results that likely could be duplicated by AAA players making league minimum. The $13 million spent on replacement level players is a much bigger waste of money.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My evidence is... pretty much all the pitchers you just listed. If those are the worst case scenarios, well a lot of those scenarios aren't that bad, some of them are pretty dang good actually.

 

People seem to fear that even a "bust" like the ones you describe will doom the franchise but history shows that that's almost never the case.

 

I don't think it will doom the franchise but I think it will hinder their ability to pick up a 28 year old free agent in, say, two seasons.

 

And that's my only quibble. I'm all for spending the money. I'm for spending money on 1-3 year contracts starting last offseason and I'm for spending big money on free agents in 1-2 years.

 

My point is that a 28 year old Anibal Sanchez is probably going to be healthier and better than a 31 year old Anibal Sanchez. May as well try your best to get that production when the team is actually good and (hopefully) competitive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pirates haven't been in the playoffs for twenty years and counting. I'm not sure using them as a model is a good idea.

 

I don't think anyone is saying building our team using the farm system isn't the best way, either.

 

Actually, I think the Pirates are a very good comparison. Huffington has done a lot right while the farm system darling child, Dayton Moore, has shown what impatience and forcing your hand can do to a franchise.

 

Both teams had good-to-great farm systems 2-3 years ago. Both teams have had a long run of fielding really bad MLB teams. You don't think Huffington was under pressure to win in the last two seasons, especially when they were 16 games over .500 last July? He easily could have buckled last deadline and done what Moore did last winter, and that's to trade a prospect to WIN RIGHT NOW. He didn't. He stuck to his long game and quietly picked up a couple of smart acquisitions without looting the farm.

 

Now the Pirates have one of the best records in baseball while the Royals are floundering and Wil Myers looks pretty damned good in a Rays uniform.

 

It's really nice to win now and a guy like Anibal Sanchez would appease the "win now" crowd but I have a very hard time believing that it's in the best interest of the long game of the franchise. Stick to the plan. Build a farm first, then go buy some free agents.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't think it will doom the franchise but I think it will hinder their ability to pick up a 28 year old free agent in, say, two seasons.

 

And that's my only quibble. I'm all for spending the money. I'm for spending money on 1-3 year contracts starting last offseason and I'm for spending big money on free agents in 1-2 years.

 

My point is that a 28 year old Anibal Sanchez is probably going to be healthier and better than a 31 year old Anibal Sanchez. May as well try your best to get that production when the team is actually good and (hopefully) competitive.

 

Let's hope you're right, and there's both a couple 28 yr old top-of-the rotation types on the market in 1-2 years, and that the Twins pull the trigger on at least one of them.

 

It's possible.

[TheLeviathan]

Build a strong core of young players and then spend away in free Agency to fill the few holes left. I think that is Ryan's philosophy for Free agency.

 

I think one of the reasons we keep going around and around on this subject is the insistence (and I don't mean you here Dman) to make this an either/or situation. We all agree about building a strong organization.

 

The debate here is how do you use FA. I'd contend that Ryan does not have an approah of "spend away" - instead he nickels and dimes (well described) to the point of having a pile of motley players rather than one good one.

 

This isn't new. He did this back in the Ramon Ortiz and Rondell White days. Ryan has a near pathological fear of any deal more than 3 years. That's the issue we're going to have to see resolved the next few years.

 

As for timing things, I'd rather have Sanchez now than hope in two years there is the right SP. As more money funnels into the league, there is a good chance (IMO) that we see less players hitting the market for a few years until the market adjusts and player demands rise to meet the extra cash. I think it's possible we see a couple years in a row of depleted FA classes because everybody had more room to retain their own.

[JB_Iowa]

I don't think it will doom the franchise but I think it will hinder their ability to pick up a 28 year old free agent in, say, two seasons.

 

And that's my only quibble. I'm all for spending the money. I'm for spending money on 1-3 year contracts starting last offseason and I'm for spending big money on free agents in 1-2 years.

 

My point is that a 28 year old Anibal Sanchez is probably going to be healthier and better than a 31 year old Anibal Sanchez. May as well try your best to get that production when the team is actually good and (hopefully) competitive.

 

I think for some of us (maybe a lot of us), it is really hard to have any faith that would happen. We feel a need to see something happen now to convince us to have some hope of what Terry Ryan will do in the future.

 

Was/is the time right for a long-term, expensive free agent acquisition? Probably not. Could Ryan have done more to show us that he will use all avenues to acquire talent? Absolutely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The $100 million arguement is a bit loaded. The Twins DO sign free agents, just not good ones. Terry Ryan is afraid of signing one quality free agent and intead nickle and dimes the hired hands.

 

It's crazy to assume that the $13 million spent on Pelfrey, Correia and Carroll is more likely to yeild positive results than the $16 million spent on Sanchez. Everyone and their mother could predict that those three would produce results that likely could be duplicated by AAA players making league minimum. The $13 million spent on replacement level players is a much bigger waste of money.

 

I agree with all of this. Which is why the Twins should be pursuing better free agents, just not ones that require a five year commitment.

 

If Ryan refuses to spend money when the Twins are on the cusp of contention and the payroll is $60m, I'll be first in line to call for his head.

[ThePuck]

Actually, I think the Pirates are a very good comparison.

 

It's really nice to win now and a guy like Anibal Sanchez would appease the "win now" crowd but I have a very hard time believing that it's in the best interest of the long game of the franchise. Stick to the plan. Build a farm first, then go buy some free agents.

 

Well, put me down as not wanting to wait another 20 years and counting to MAYBE make the playoffs.

 

And the assumption that we'll THEN go out and buy some free agents is all speculation based on no history of him doing so whatsoever, unless you mean carpy free agent that did nothing to help us. That's a main problem. The assumption that he WILL go spend on quality FA in whatever predicted time frame we'll be competitive again. If we're using the Pirates model, we're looking at 2033 or so?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Let's hope you're right, and there's both a couple 28 yr old top-of-the rotation types on the market in 1-2 years, and that the Twins pull the trigger on at least one of them.

 

It's possible.

 

The 28 year old FAs will be there. Every offseason has a few of them.

 

Will JR spend the money? Unfortunately, I have little faith in that happening but hey, it's possible.

 

Sigh.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, put me down as not wanting to wait over 20 years and counting to make the playoffs.

 

It's hard to blame Huffington, a guy who took the helm of the Pirates in 2007, for the nearly two decades of rampant stupidity that plagued the franchise before that point.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think it will doom the franchise but I think it will hinder their ability to pick up a 28 year old free agent in, say, two seasons.

 

That would be nice, but Ryan doesn't appear to have the constitution to sign whatever substitutes for Anibal Sanchez in 2015. His MO is to spend the same yearly amount a GM normally would pay Sanchez and apply it to a bunch of replacement level players. Even though the long term deal is risky, I'm OK if it prohibits the team from spending on more dime-a-dozen free agents he tends to bring in to the fold instead.

 

Edit: And then you post this which is agreeable enough for me to end my part of the discussion:

 

"If Ryan refuses to spend money when the Twins are on the cusp of contention and the payroll is $60m, I'll be first in line to call for his head."

 

"Will JR spend the money? Unfortunately, I have little faith in that happening but hey, it's possible."

[ThePuck]

It's hard to blame Huffington, a guy who took the helm of the Pirates in 2007, for the nearly two decades of rampant stupidity that plagued the franchise before that point.

 

So, only 7 more years to wait? Might as well try to convince Mauer to lift his trade clause then.

[gunnarthor]

It's crazy to assume that the $13 million spent on Pelfrey, Correia and Carroll is more likely to yeild positive results than the $16 million spent on Sanchez. Everyone and their mother could predict that those three would produce results that likely could be duplicated by AAA players making league minimum. The $13 million spent on replacement level players is a much bigger waste of money.

 

Sanchez didn't cost 16m, he cost 80. If the Twins could have gotten him for one year at 16, they'd jumped on it. And for the 6.5m the Twins paid for Carroll, they got over 3 WAR from him. That's not a bad signing.

[ThePuck]

If the Twins could have gotten him for one year at 16, they'd jumped on it.

 

WHAT? You base that on what?

[gunnarthor]

I think for some of us (maybe a lot of us), it is really hard to have any faith that would happen. We feel a need to see something happen now to convince us to have some hope of what Terry Ryan will do in the future.

 

Was/is the time right for a long-term, expensive free agent acquisition? Probably not. Could Ryan have done more to show us that he will use all avenues to acquire talent? Absolutely.

 

I'm not sure this is a fair shot at Ryan. When he was GM in his first go-round, he was extremely hindered by payroll issues but was still able to build a couple different core teams. That's a positive for him. Payroll went up under a different GM. When he came back, it was rebuilding time (it's why they got him) so spending a lot didn't make sense. We don't know if he'll spend big in FA in a few years or keep payroll low but basing it on how he managed the team under a different financial situation doesn't make sense.

 

And I think it's rather silly for Ryan to make a splashy move just to show some people that he might do something. If you can't see that Ryan isn't making moves to make this team better now, then signing Sanchez wouldn't do it either.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, put me down as not wanting to wait another 20 years and counting to MAYBE make the playoffs.

 

And the assumption that we'll THEN go out and buy some free agents is all speculation based on no history of him doing so whatsoever, unless you mean carpy free agent that did nothing to help us. That's a main problem. The assumption that he WILL go spend on quality FA in whatever predicted time frame we'll be competitive again. If we're using the Pirates model, we're looking at 2033 or so?

 

The 20 year wait for the Pirates has more to do with mismanagement than anything else. Up until a few years ago, I think we'd all have stated that they were an incredibly poor run franchise. Not the case now. I don't think the Twins have to worry about it, because they are well run. Will every one of our prospects pan out? Probably not, but I think there's good reason to believe that the Twins will be a very competitive team over the latter half of this decade.

[nicksaviking]

Sanchez didn't cost 16m, he cost 80. If the Twins could have gotten him for one year at 16, they'd jumped on it. And for the 6.5m the Twins paid for Carroll, they got over 3 WAR from him. That's not a bad signing.

 

Right because it was a 5-year deal, but every year the Twins just sign another group of replacement level players which are much less likely to play better than league-minimum guys in AAA. I'm OK if the by signing a Sanchez the Twins DON'T sign the Pelfreys, Marquis', Carrolls, and Correias for a few years and instead plug in a guy from the system.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So, only 7 more years to wait? Might as well try to convince Mauer to lift his trade clause then.

 

The 2011 Twins Franchise >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The 2007 Pirates Franchise

 

The Pirates were awful in almost every way when Huffington took over. They didn't have a Sano or Arcia or Gibson, much less a Mauer on the MLB roster.

 

They had Andrew McCutchen, who was more like Aaron Hicks of 2012. A good prospect coming off an abysmal year, putting his future in question.

[gunnarthor]

but every year the Twins just sign another group of replacement level players .

 

This statement is just not true.

[Willihammer]

I don't think it will doom the franchise but I think it will hinder their ability to pick up a 28 year old free agent in, say, two seasons.

 

And that's my only quibble. I'm all for spending the money. I'm for spending money on 1-3 year contracts starting last offseason and I'm for spending big money on free agents in 1-2 years.

 

My point is that a 28 year old Anibal Sanchez is probably going to be healthier and better than a 31 year old Anibal Sanchez. May as well try your best to get that production when the team is actually good and (hopefully) competitive.

 

I went ahead and glanced at the next two offseason FA SP classes. The top of the rotation types could very well be older than 28.

 

2014 class:

Lincecum (29)

Garza (30)

Josh Johnson (30)

Dan Haren (33)

 

2015 class:

Kershaw (27)

Scherzer (30)

Iwakuma (34)

Chen (29)

Masterson (30)

Cueto (29)

Bailey (29)

Gallardo (29)

 

edit: link http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015-mlb-free-agents/

[ThePuck]

I went ahead and glanced at the next two offseason FA SP classes. The top of the rotation types could very well be older than 28.

 

2014 class:

Lincecum (29)

Garza (30)

Josh Johnson (30)

Dan Haren (33)

 

2015 class:

Kershaw (27)

Scherzer (30)

Iwakuma (34)

Chen (29)

Masterson (30)

Cueto (29)

Bailey (29)

Gallardo (29)

 

When you figure most MLs start their careers at 23 or 24, and often their first year isn't counted as service time cause it's a partial year, it makes sense most FAs are 28 or older, since teams control them for 6 years.

 

It basically means to get a true quality player, we'll have to sign a guy till he's in his mid 30s, which many don't advocate.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

I'm not sure this is a fair shot at Ryan. When he was GM in his first go-round, he was extremely hindered by payroll issues but was still able to build a couple different core teams. That's a positive for him. Payroll went up under a different GM. When he came back, it was rebuilding time (it's why they got him) so spending a lot didn't make sense. We don't know if he'll spend big in FA in a few years or keep payroll low but basing it on how he managed the team under a different financial situation doesn't make sense.

 

And I think it's rather silly for Ryan to make a splashy move just to show some people that he might do something. If you can't see that Ryan isn't making moves to make this team better now, then signing Sanchez wouldn't do it either.

 

Agree 100%. You can judge TR based on his past stint with a small market team if you want to. I think it would be prudent to wait until the next core of players is ready and see how he spends in FA with an expanded payroll and the time is right.

 

Again I think a lot of people forget that high dollar free agents don't want to play the prime of their career on a bad team. Going into this season despite what TR said in statements to the press, everyone knew this was a rebuilding project. It is pretty difficult without some other forces at play (family, friends on team, etc.) to get a top pitcher to sign a 3-5 year deal with a team expected to struggle when they can sign a similar contract with a contender.

[TheLeviathan]

Agree 100%. You can judge TR based on his past stint with a small market team if you want to. I think it would be prudent to wait until the next core of players is ready and see how he spends in FA with an expanded payroll and the time is right.

 

Again I think a lot of people forget that high dollar free agents don't want to play the prime of their career on a bad team. Going into this season despite what TR said in statements to the press, everyone knew this was a rebuilding project. It is pretty difficult without some other forces at play (family, friends on team, etc.) to get a top pitcher to sign a 3-5 year deal with a team expected to struggle when they can sign a similar contract with a contender.

 

I didn't forget at all. I heard a certain team's assistant GM say FA is pretty simple, it boils down to two things:

 

"Dollars and years"

 

My fear is the excuses will keep shifting. By the time 2016 comes around we'll be told there isn't money for FA because, in three years, we have all these guys arby expiring and we have to save money to retain them. It's a never-ending cycle of excuse making.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

Some posts have questioned what FA pitchers will be available in a couple years because of the extra TV money coming in. I don't really see that as a reason to sign a pitcher with injury history to a long term deal now. But isn't the extra money and chances that teams will lock up their own players the reason for making smart trades now? Such as the Revere and Span deals to bring in pitching prospects with a high upside who will hopefully be ready in a couple years?