Grading Terry Ryan

[ThePuck]

We don't save cash from year to year. Money saved this year and next year and the year after won't be filtered into budget for any following years. We should stop saying that a good idea is to save money until we're competitive. Prrt of the way to become competitive is to dabble in the free agent market. We should always be looking to improve. It's irresponsible not to.

[old nurse]

Wow...well first Arrieta was their opening day starter last year. Your spin just isn't backed by facts. For a one year, low risk, FA overpay they got Worley, Burton, and two international slots. That is tremendous and the odds of the Twins matching that by the deadline are low. I'm not sure why you are so blantently twisting reality for this point.

 

How Strop was used would say Fien, not Burton.5.37 ERA over time for Arietta is not a twisted fact. Feldman this year is pitching above average. The international money makes up for what they gave up dumping Marmol. The Cubs lost salary dumping

[TheLeviathan]

How Strop was used would say Fien, not Burton.5.37 ERA over time for Arietta is not a twisted fact. Feldman this year is pitching above average. The international money makes up for what they gave up dumping Marmol. The Cubs lost salary dumping

 

None of this changes that you compared a 28 year old with a career ERA+ of 106, coming off a season where he had a 2.44 ERA in 60 innings with nearly a K/IP to Jeff Gray. You didn't compare him to Fien, you compared him to Jeff Gray.

 

Then you compared a 25 year old Arrieta who was a top Orioles prospect just two years ago and an opening day starter to a 28 year old journeyman. Yes, Arrieta has struggled, but that still doesn't excuse that comparison.

 

What they did in another trade is irrelevant. I'm talking about what the Cubs got for Feldman. They got two international slots and two buy-low guys with talent. I wish we could get that for one of our offseason pitcher signings.

[TheLeviathan]

Would next offseason be the one to go after Free agents or would the one after be better as next year we will be breaking in

 

Well, IMO - it should've been last year and then for the next two years as well. I think Deduno and Gibson have rotation spots for next year. I highly doubt Meyer or May are up before June. You'd hope Diamond is in the mix, but that's hardly a certainty. Ideally Correia and Pelfrey are both gone. I'll throw Worley in as a lock, but that still leaves two spots. I see no reason not to be aggressive in filling one of them with someone like Josh Johnson.

[jokin]

So you think the franchises were in a similar talent situation at the end of last year? I would disagree with this assessment.

 

I didn't make an assessment, this is a quiz question. One team was very doggedly active in the offseason in making their 94 loss team relevant, sooner rather than later. Another team was very active in half-rebuild/half-patch up the mother ship with spit and baling wire.

[jokin]

Chicago received the equivalent of PJ Walters and Jeff Gray. The Feldman trade in no way enhanced the future of Chicago unless it was the cash considerations.

 

You do realize that your "comps" aren't comparable at all?.... and that you are putting your absolutist opinion up against almost universal praise for the Cubs by neutral national writers for the merits of the transaction? Right? I humbly ask that you reconsider your stand, which IMHO, seems biased in defending the Twins Fo inaction in conducting shrewd trades like this- seemingly at any cost, rather than considering the facts on the table.

[howieramone1406390264]

I didn't make an assessment, this is a quiz question. One team was very doggedly active in the offseason in making their 94 loss team relevant, sooner rather than later. Another team was very active in half-rebuild/half-patch up the mother ship with spit and baling wire.

One may longingly look at the Indians and their 26th rated farm system as a model of short term success. One could also make the argument that the Twins with their farm system, if they chose to denude it of their top rated prospects, could catch the Indians this season, if they so chose.

[jokin]

Comparing Arrieta to Worley (who is two years younger) and Strop to Burton (who has a much, much better track record) sure looks like a biased comparison to me.

 

The Cubs didn't get much in terms of future value for Feldman. The Twins got more for Liriano last year...

 

This is not correct comparison-matching-- A career #4-5 starter's haul vs. a potential ace (as he now is proving to be in Pittsburgh).

 

And you completely discount the potential for outbidding other team's for their top international targets. They just bumped up their pool money to sign the #1 and #3 international prospects and another in the top 30. I'd say the Cubs didn't get much in terms of future value---NO!--- they potentially got the mother-lode of potential impact players whose future value is yet to be determined, but could all be game -changers.

 

Plus, they got Arietta and Strop on the cheap, far more cheaply repeating the bet they made on Feldman this year (Arietta's career xFIP is 4.45---Feldman's career xFIP is 4.44), and Maholm (career xFIP was 4.22 at time of trade), last year. Strop too, people forget how far down and close to out of baseball for good that Burton actually was- Burton hadn't been an effective pitcher since 2008 when TR signed him.

[jokin]

One may longingly look at the Indians and their 26th rated farm system as a model of short term success. One could also make the argument that the Twins with their farm system, if they chose to denude it of their top rated prospects, could catch the Indians this season, if they so chose.

 

And who has chosen the path towards this "denuding" of which you speak?

[Guest USAFChief]

Grade: "C" at best, maybe a "D."

 

There's a lot to like about the current minor league system, although there is still precious little pitching to get excited about, and Ryan doesn't get full credit for the minor league assets--some of that is due to Bill Smith.

 

The major league team isn't really in much, if any better shape than it was a year ago. The starting pitching is still a mess, with Gibson as the only real hope of something that might be a real long term asset. The middle infield is still a near term and long term question mark, and nobody can say with any certainty who will be manning the infield corners a year or three from now. Sano, probably, at one spot, but there's nothing surer about minor league prospects than that a good percentage of them don't develop into dependable major leaguers.

 

There is payroll flexibility, both near and short term, so that's good. But...it's an open question when, or if, the Twins will choose to take advantage of that. So I hesitate to give Ryan credit for the payroll flexibility, when there's a good chance it's not flexibility at all, but just a reluctance to spend.

 

The organization is most likely in better shape long term than it was when Ryan retook the job, but not by leaps and bounds, and some of what counts as "in better shape" isn't due to him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

While I'd definitely give him an A or A- in the minors, I'd struggle to give him anything better than a C for the MLB club and after this past offseason, it might even be a D.

 

I tend to agree, though I think the question is "what was the goal of the 2013 MLB club?". I'm pretty convinced that this was a rebuilding year, and they did what should have been done for that. Not blocking young talent and letting some kids play was likely part of that, as was accepting a bad year for a nice pick next year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Truth is, Ryan built a major league roster that has yielded only a few bright spots in the way of long-term positivity, virtually nothing of trade value, and a roster that is neither contending nor in line for a top 5 pick. Honestly, I can't imagine a scenario much worse at the beginning of July.

 

Just to pick a nit, but as of today, the Twins are tied with the Mets for the 5th worst record in baseball. Not sure what the tiebreakers are, but they are very much in line for a top 5 pick and I'd imagine by the all star break it might be higher...

 

As well, typically, losing teams aren't going to have a massive amount of tradable assets, if they did, they wouldn't be losing teams. As it is the, the Twins have one very nice tradable asset (Perkins) and a couple more that might net something decent (Doumit, Fein, Morneau, Pelfrey, and Correa). I don't expect top 100 prospects for anything other than Perkins, but the Twins should be in place to get potentially usable pieces for the remainder.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, IMO - it should've been last year and then for the next two years as well. I think Deduno and Gibson have rotation spots for next year. I highly doubt Meyer or May are up before June. You'd hope Diamond is in the mix, but that's hardly a certainty. Ideally Correia and Pelfrey are both gone. I'll throw Worley in as a lock, but that still leaves two spots. I see no reason not to be aggressive in filling one of them with someone like Josh Johnson.

 

I think Logan Darnell will be in the starting rotation next season.

[TheLeviathan]

Just to pick a nit, but as of today, the Twins are tied with the Mets for the 5th worst record in baseball.

 

When I posted that we were 7th, so apparently (and the standings show this too) it's a pretty fluid bottom 10. All the more reason to make sure we're closer to 1 than 10. I know it sounds bad to root for them to lose games, but if you're not in contention any way, then I'd rather have the higher pick. (Unless of course playing all the young guys yields success, in which case I'm cool with that too. As long as it's the young guys, not veterans who aren't part of the long term plan doing it)

 

As well, typically, losing teams aren't going to have a massive amount of tradable assets

 

Agreed and I don't expect that. But the two investments in our rotation will likely not yield much at the deadline. One opportunity we clearly had was to say to a few guys "you've got a spot to prove yourself. It's all yours, but just know that opportunity comes with a risk of being dealt if you make good use of it". And while Correia has been better tahn expected, he hasn't been good enough to generate any value.

 

The lack of trade-able assets isn't all on Ryan, but some of it surely is. A team like the Twins had the ability to offer playing time to veterans wanting to recoup value on the market and so far it looks like they've failed to take adavantage of that. Pelfrey could go on a 5-6 start run here but he's still Pelfrey and not liking to sway anyone out of a significant piece. As is the case with most of the guys on your list.

 

I'm hoping they get something nice out of Fein and maybe out of Doumit, but otherwise I think extremely low expectations is probably the safest bet.

[old nurse]

None of this changes that you compared a 28 year old with a career ERA+ of 106, coming off a season where he had a 2.44 ERA in 60 innings with nearly a K/IP to Jeff Gray. You didn't compare him to Fien, you compared him to Jeff Gray.

 

Then you compared a 25 year old Arrieta who was a top Orioles prospect just two years ago and an opening day starter to a 28 year old journeyman. Yes, Arrieta has struggled, but that still doesn't excuse that comparison.

 

What they did in another trade is irrelevant. I'm talking about what the Cubs got for Feldman. They got two international slots and two buy-low guys with talent. I wish we could get that for one of our offseason pitcher signings.

 

Please provide some statistical evidence in over three years of major league pitching these are great talent pitchers.

[TheLeviathan]

Please provide some statistical evidence in over three years of major league pitching these are great talent pitchers.

 

Please show me where I called them "great talent pitchers". I called them pitchers with some talent who are good buy-low options. Which, they were.

[John Bonnes]

Looks like we could use a 3rd opinion on some of these comparisons, as well an attempt at peacemaker. I always appreciate peacemakers. Here are some outside 3rd opinions:

 

1. Feldman was an awfully shrewd pickup by the Cubs. For $6M, he gave them a 3.5ish ERA over 100 innings. Even before the trade, that's better than anything the Twins front office did.

 

2. I don't know that Walters is a great comparison to Arrieta, except maybe in recent ERA. To be fair, there isn't a great comparison in the Twins system. It sounds like Levi feels like he has a future. It sounds like Old Nurse does not. He is 27 years old, so he is running out of time.

 

3. Strop is similar - overall he's been about as ineffective as Gray, but he has the sexy K rate and throws a lot harder. It would seem like there is more upside to him, but he certainly hasn't harnessed it, and he's not young. (28 years old)

 

4. I should also mention - the Orioles got back their own "buy-low" candidate in Clevenger, too. He could offset one of those pickups.

 

I think you both have come to agree on most of this, though there might be some semantics you would debate. Now, how you interpret it is up to you. Should the Twins front office be blamed because they didn't make a move like this? Or can we just chalk this up to the Cubs being very good or very lucky?

[TheLeviathan]

Even before the trade, that's better than anything the Twins front office did.

 

This is the essence of my point. Not only did they achieve this, but they also came away with possibilities to help in the future. Was it lucky - very much so I would say. But they took a chance on being lucky and it paid off, that's where I put some fault on Ryan. He went with low ceiling, high floor instead.

 

To be clear, I don't know that Arrieta will be anything. He is getting older and has failed many times, but the NL has a way of curing a lot of pitching ills. In any case, this is a guy who was fairly well thought of within the last two years, which is worth a gamble. That's why the Walter's comp fails, he hasn't been though well of in years, if ever.

 

3. Strop is similar - overall he's been about as ineffective as Gray

 

By what measure? I guess to me, it's pretty clear Strop is a superior player. Quite awful this year (Jeff Grayian awful even) but much better over his career. Since bullpen guys are known to swoon, seems like a good flyer to me.

 

Anything Strop and Arrieta provide is gravy to the international market cash and to what Feldman did during the year. But they were great buy-low gets for a guy that cost them nothing more than a few million.

 

Which is where I think Ryan missed some opportunities last offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So a pitcher like Saunders is the difference between a C (or a perhaps a D, as you suggest) and an A for you, RP? I still think you're* making mountains out of molehills in terms of TR's offseason mistakes.

 

*like so many are

 

No, the difference is between nobody and Dempster. I was not and am not a fan of the Correia signing but if Ryan had picked up a legitimately good starter to pitch in front of KC, I would have been okay with him as a secondary FA acquisition. Maybe not an A grade but he'd probably rate a B.

 

But Saunders and Correia, no, that wouldn't change the grade much. That's a pretty ****ty offseason, though still better than what we got.

[Red Holstein]

I think they'd be better off with billy still running the show.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't remember a lot of clamor for Feldman last winter.

 

I guess the big thing here is that none of the trades thus far have netted great prospects. I'm not sure Correia would net any worse/better in a trade... same with Pelf. Teams aren't going to give a ton for a guy signed to a make good deal. That might have happened 10-20 years ago, but not today.

[TheLeviathan]

I guess the big thing here is that none of the trades thus far have netted great prospects.

 

No, but it's vastly superior to nothing. Plus, I'd like the Twins scouts to have some more international dollars to spend, I think that'd go a long way for this club. It's something they have been very good at lately.

 

I'm pretty sure Pelfrey's value is nothing Correia is not a whole lot better. Neither are even close to what Feldman fetched.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Should the Twins front office be blamed because they didn't make a move like this? Or can we just chalk this up to the Cubs being very good or very lucky?

 

Before we start patting the Cubs front office of the back, lets remember that they are paying Scott Baker $5.5m to *hopefully* pitch in September. You win some, you lose some. Unfortunately, the Twins have been losing a lot... and at bad times. It's also hard to blame a single person in such involved process. If you're suggesting to blow it up from top to bottom, though, I won't argue.

[Kwak]

Before we start patting the Cubs front office of the back, lets remember that they are paying Scott Baker $5.5m to *hopefully* pitch in September. You win some, you lose some. Unfortunately, the Twins have been losing a lot... and at bad times. It's also hard to blame a single person in such involved process. If you're suggesting to blow it up from top to bottom, though, I won't argue.

 

Is this the same Scott Baker that the Twins were very confident that they would sign for 1 year and a 1 year option {just kidding}.

Oh and the Twins are paying Nick Blackburn $5.5 to hopefully not pitch for them at all this year.

[jokin]

I don't remember a lot of clamor for Feldman last winter.

 

I guess the big thing here is that none of the trades thus far have netted great prospects. I'm not sure Correia would net any worse/better in a trade... same with Pelf. Teams aren't going to give a ton for a guy signed to a make good deal. That might have happened 10-20 years ago, but not today.

 

Actually, it was the opposite of clamor. And Feldman was one of the very first signings. And if you look at his peripherals and the pedigree of the organization that developed him, there was value in the signing, shrewd signing, shrewd flipping.

[jokin]

Before we start patting the Cubs front office of the back, lets remember that they are paying Scott Baker $5.5m to *hopefully* pitch in September. You win some, you lose some. Unfortunately, the Twins have been losing a lot... and at bad times. It's also hard to blame a single person in such involved process. If you're suggesting to blow it up from top to bottom, though, I won't argue.

 

I have acknowledged this fact in my posts, you have to be in a position to take multiple swings. I think John Bonnes was being rather glib in his assessment of the deal, rather than luck, they are demonstrating their utilization of a very good strategy, they didn't invent it, it's been around since FA began... in fact, they had just done the same thing the year before with Paul Maholm- who happened to be a pitcher that myself and others were clamoring for the Twins to sign and flip in preseaon 2012.

[PseudoSABR]

The trading of Feldman is pretty lateral--and that's the end result of his signing. Whatever keeness the Cubs showed in signing him, what they obtained in return doesn't seem much of a reward to me, and I doubt I'm alone in this opinion. This might be cynical, but I imagine if the Twins had retained this package for KC, some of the same posters would use it as evidence of why we shouldn't have signed KC in the first place. Go figure.

[TheLeviathan]

This might be cynical, but I imagine if the Twins had retained this package for KC, some of the same posters would use it as evidence of why we shouldn't have signed KC in the first place. Go figure.

 

We're three weeks from the deadline and feel free to bring this back to me then...but if the Twins actually deal KC (and right now I'm convinced they won't for a few reasons not the least of which is that he hasn't pitched well enough to get this value) and they get half this package - I'll bump Ryan's grade from a C- to a B-.

 

I'll be estatic. I'll sing Ryan's praises every bit as much as I did with the Span/Revere deals. I would jump for joy. Beauty of it is, that's not hindsight, we'll still see if the Twins can parlay their FA signing into some value. That part remains a mystery to be determined, what isn't mysterious is that the Cubs did get both present and potential future value out of that signing. No matter how many intentionally underplayed comparisons want to be made about what they acquired.

[jokin]

The trading of Feldman is pretty lateral--and that's the end result of his signing. Whatever keeness the Cubs showed in signing him, what they obtained in return doesn't seem much of a reward to me, and I doubt I'm alone in this opinion. This might be cynical, but I imagine if the Twins had retained this package for KC, some of the same posters would use it as evidence of why we shouldn't have signed KC in the first place. Go figure.

 

Which posters? It would have been a positive boon to the franchise. And you are pretty much alone. Scan the list of articles from neutral observers that are praising the strategy. Again, the Cubs traded for a guy with a very similar underlying set of profile numbers to the guy they sent to the Orioles. And they got a possible turnaround reliever, besides (Strop pitched a scoreless 1.1 innings in the Cubs victory today). That's not just one, but 2 better-than lotto-ticket acquisitions. Plus, most importantly, $400, 000 in International signing money. You ask everyone to "go figure", this one figures out definitely in both the Cubs and Orioles favor.

[drjim]

I didn't make an assessment, this is a quiz question. One team was very doggedly active in the offseason in making their 94 loss team relevant, sooner rather than later. Another team was very active in half-rebuild/half-patch up the mother ship with spit and baling wire.

 

Your quiz missed the point of why the teams are in different situations at the moment. Active or not the reason for improvement is internal improvement perhaps spurred on by a new manager. This is often how teams take jumps from one year to the next. It is how I suspect the Twins will be better next year.