Grading Terry Ryan

[old nurse]

You can do similar comparisons with other starters. I picked Gray simply because I hate him and he's awful.

 

I just randomly pulled a starter off the top of my head:

 

Gil Meche: career .291 BABIP.

 

You have to remember with Gray is his gb% was on the low side and his hr/fb was on the high side. Did Gray then benefit from warning track outs? The batter tried to hit a home run but only came close.

[ThePuck]

Well the arguement is that if this team needs to hand out multi year deals to secure a bigger free agent fish, they need to do it now because if they wait until all the youngsters start needing contract attention, there will be not be enough money. Signing a good starting pitcher to a four year deal this offseason may mean he's on a poor team in 2014 but in theory he would be usefull for the competitive three seasons that follow.

 

Besides, the international free agent market is well underway and all of the top players have signed deals. The Twins still have about $1.5 million in cap space left. The Twins will not necessarily spend international draft slot money even when they are able to.

 

Yeah, they had, what, the 2nd, 3rd most available money but signed the 10th ranked international prospect (an OF to boot) and no others in the top 30? Cubs signed the #1, #3, and #17 ranked international prospect.

[Kwak]

It's unlikely that they'll be consistent, just as the negative posters aren't consistent with their demands, either... If the Twins do something right, then the negative nellies just move the bar further along to continue complaining. The homers and negative people are little different, though at least the homers are slightly more palatable over the long run (excessive positivity is less grating than excessive negativity).

 

Given the way Buxton and Sano are progressing, it's time to start dabbling in the free agency market. As mentioned in another thread, Phil Hughes might be a good place to start. Or Josh Johnson. I'm still wary on offering five year deals to pitchers but the idea must be explored at some point.

 

At the very least, they need to find shorter term, older vets who aren't flat-out awful. This pitching staff cannot be competitive using only internal resources and that isn't going to change in the next 18 months.

 

I detect a weakening in the position of "don't get a FA pitcher that gets a five-year contract until...". Or has "until" happened? But seriously, there are two glaring needs on this team and one is starting pitching. Strive for excellence, even "overpaying" {oh I love that word} and keep it for five years--because the Twins will need that type of pitcher now and every year. Of course, I believe in "developing" from within. I witnessed last night a guy get into a jam, and just on the cusp of success--he "clutches". Twins' pitchers must learn in their development how to finish 'em off.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You have to remember with Gray is his gb% was on the low side and his hr/fb was on the high side. Did Gray then benefit from warning track outs? The batter tried to hit a home run but only came close.

 

I wouldn't say that Gray's splits were heavy one way or the other with the Twins and before the Twins, he was actually an extreme groundball pitcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I detect a weakening in the position of "don't get a FA pitcher that gets a five-year contract until...". Or has "until" happened? But seriously, there are two glaring needs on this team and one is starting pitching. Strive for excellence, even "overpaying" {oh I love that word} and keep it for five years--because the Twins will need that type of pitcher now and every year. Of course, I believe in "developing" from within. I witnessed last night a guy get into a jam, and just on the cusp of success--he "clutches". Twins' pitchers must learn in their development how to finish 'em off.

 

A 3-4 year contract at $10m per is a lot different than $18m per over 4-6 seasons.

 

And also, this offseason is not last offseason. An entire year to judge the farm system has happened and we'll have a better idea of where the franchise is at that point.

[Kirby Puckett]

The best move he could make is to trade Morneau to the Giants for Lincecum, get that big name pitcher and put him in a low pressure situation for a while so he can find his stuff again. Then in two years, you hopefully have a rotation that looks like:

 

Lincecum

Gibson

Diamond

Myers

May/Wimmers

 

That's good enough to make a run for the postseason

[Kwak]

A 3-4 year contract at $10m per is a lot different than $18m per over 4-6 seasons.

 

 

The pitcher a lot different too! Generally of considerably less quality, or he would get the same $18MM per season.

[johnnydakota]

I don't think it makes a lot sense to divide the grades for majors and minors, as with the Revere and Span trades diminish one to improve the other.

 

Judging this past offseason, I think is tricky. I don't think there was much (beyond signing Sanchez or Grienke) that would have really improved the club. I'm curious what TR could have done to earn an A?

 

Well you could start by not signing Pelfrey, Corria and Harden , then trading for a unproven twice injurred under the knife starter.....just saying , then maybe he could of addressed the middle infield and brought in another centerfielder after trading away not 1 ,but 2 ,for a handful of majic beans....

[old nurse]

 

Besides, the international free agent market is well underway and all of the top players have signed deals. The Twins still have about $1.5 million in cap space left. The Twins will not necessarily spend international draft slot money even when they are able to.

 

10 of the top 30 still have not signed. It is a guessing game after the top few.

[johnnydakota]

A 3-4 year contract at $10m per is a lot different than $18m per over 4-6 seasons.

 

And also, this offseason is not last offseason. An entire year to judge the farm system has happened and we'll have a better idea of where the franchise is at that point.

 

And is why we will never get more then a 3rd tier type....

Mr. Ryan left because he couldnt take the heat of trading Santana,

and he cant take the heat of big free agent contracts.

 

The problem with Gardy is the same as ryan , gardy puts players in positions to lose , instead of putting them in situations to win, this job is either as a schill to scuttle payroll or is beyond Terry capability

[old nurse]

Yeah, they had, what, the 2nd, 3rd most available money but signed the 10th ranked international prospect (an OF to boot) and no others in the top 30? Cubs signed the #1, #3, and #17 ranked international prospect.

 

In the drafting and ranking of older players the experts hardly ever get it right, what does it matter so much with the internationals at 16 years old?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The pitcher a lot different too! Generally of considerably less quality, or he would get the same $18MM per season.

 

Which has absolutely nothing to do with my point but okay.

[ThePuck]

In the drafting and ranking of older players the experts hardly ever get it right, what does it matter so much with the internationals at 16 years old?

 

So the scouting is different? There aren't professional scouts ranking these players? Better to just pick the names out of a hat and sign them, right? Heck, might as well do that with all drafts, including first year player's draft, since it's more or less a carp shoot anyway if we go by the way you're arguing your point.

 

The Cubs went for it with the money they had for the international prospects. The Twins, so far, have not. That's the point.

[johnnydakota]

Marcum started the year on the DL which would have really screwed up our April, and has been worth -0.5 WAR since then while pitching in the NL. Saunders is having a Correa like season. I liked Dempster but not sure I would have given him his 3rd year. Still, I don't see how those 3 would have made us much, if any, better.

 

And? we would have ended up with the same record, but for a couple of months in the winter had some hope, and maybe sold a few more season tickets....

since 2010 to the end of 2013 we will have lost around 40million in revenue...

but actually gained in team profits

[Dman]

Well the arguement is that if this team needs to hand out multi year deals to secure a bigger free agent fish, they need to do it now because if they wait until all the youngsters start needing contract attention, there will be not be enough money. Signing a good starting pitcher to a four year deal this offseason may mean he's on a poor team in 2014 but in theory he would be usefull for the competitive three seasons that follow.

 

Besides, the international free agent market is well underway and all of the top players have signed deals. The Twins still have about $1.5 million in cap space left. The Twins will not necessarily spend international draft slot money even when they are able to.

 

I get the start now approach and I agree I think they are close but it seems like a bit of an unnecessary gamble to me. See what you have first and then get what you need in FA. Not guess what you need and maybe need something else when the time comes. It seems like there is always a FA pitcher every year I see no reason to rush it.

 

On the international free agent market they said they would spend it all this year but with the Twins who knows. I was hoping that since payroll is low this year they would over spend just enough in the international market not to incur penalties. I was also hoping that they would target fewer but higher rated prospects but I guess again that was wishful thinking. I am starting to see the trend others have noticed about Ryan and the Twins. They seem to like quantity over quality but then again I am no scout and probably do not grasp the finer points of rating players. It would be nice that if they aren't going to spend payroll that they max out their spending for prospects but I guess the Twins are the Twins.

[johnnydakota]

If the Twins are willing to take some risks, there's some interesting names out there like Lincecum, Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Volquez. Adding one or two of these guys for incentive laden, short term contracts could be smart, and the kind of risk I hope they take. Nolasco will probably get Edwin Jackson money, though.

 

Really? so these guys will stand in line for hours to sign an incentive ladden contract with a team who has lost over 90 plus for 3 seasons in a row?

[ThePuck]

Really? so these guys will stand in line for hours to sign an incentive ladden contract with a team who has lost over 90 plus for 3 seasons in a row?

 

I think that's less of an issue than thinking they'll sign short-term contracts that are incentive based when other teams will over longer term contracts for a guaranteed amount.

[johnnydakota]

I get the start now approach and I agree I think they are close but it seems like a bit of an unnecessary gamble to me. See what you have first and then get what you need in FA. Not guess what you need and maybe need something else when the time comes. It seems like there is always a FA pitcher every year I see no reason to rush it.

 

On the international free agent market they said they would spend it all this year but with the Twins who knows. I was hoping that since payroll is low this year they would over spend just enough in the international market not to incur penalties. I was also hoping that they would target fewer but higher rated prospects but I guess again that was wishful thinking. I am starting to see the trend others have noticed about Ryan and the Twins. They seem to like quantity over quality but then again I am no scout and probably do not grasp the finer points of rating players. It would be nice that if they aren't going to spend payroll that they max out their spending for prospects but I guess the Twins are the Twins.

 

thats the toilet bowl effect, or the shot gun theroy , if you shoot enough beebees you will hit some thing

[old nurse]

So the scouting is different? There aren't professional scouts ranking these players? Better to just pick the names out of a hat and sign them, right? Heck, might as well do that with all drafts, including first year player's draft, since it's more or less a carp shoot anyway if we go by the way you're arguing your point.

 

The Cubs went for it with the money they had for the international prospects. The Twins, so far, have not. That's the point.

 

The point I was making is the rankings do not matter. Top 10 prospects from the 2006 WBC: The 7 non Cubans were , Liriano, Loewen, Hu, Harman, Giaratano, Kawasaki, and Martis. Liriano was the only one of that group to make the majord from that prospect list. It doesn't mean don't sign players. I just don't think you can get all wound up about rankings and dollars.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Except for pitchers, it kinda does. One of the strange anomalies of baseball that nobody really understands.

 

Johan Santana career BABIP: .276

Jeff Gray career BABIP: .296

 

Not equal but considering the talent of the pitchers, not terribly far apart, either.

 

Numbers suggest that the batter has far more control over BABIP than the pitcher, barring weird exceptions like Nick Blackburn and Sean Bergman, two pitchers who spent a large portion of their careers throwing BP and getting shelled.

 

Correlation does not equal causation. For one, that extra 20 points makes a huge difference between a crappy pitcher and an elite one...

 

Second, I can pretty much guarantee you that if I took the mound every 5th day for an entire season that my BABIP would not be floating around .300. It would be closer to .800 I'd guess. Pitchers have control over their BABIP and to insinuate that one does and the other doesn't is kind of silly, especially since pitchers that have consistently high BABIP never even make it to the majors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Correlation does not equal causation. For one, that extra 20 points makes a huge difference between a crappy pitcher and an elite one...

 

Second, I can pretty much guarantee you that if I took the mound every 5th day for an entire season that my BABIP would not be floating around .300. It would be closer to .800 I'd guess. Pitchers have control over their BABIP and to insinuate that one does and the other doesn't is kind of silly, especially since pitchers that have consistently high BABIP never even make it to the majors.

 

That's just it... Pitcher BABIP doesn't fluctuate that much. We're talking about a .040 gap between the elite and the worst in MLB.

 

As opposed to hitters, where we can see a .130 point gap between pretty-good-to-great players, much less the best and the worst.

 

If you are really bad at throwing a baseball, your BABIP will be higher... But, on the other hand, you'll also let more baseballs leave the park, which do not count against BABIP (hence the .271 BABIP, 7.6 WAR Barry Bonds season I pointed out). Pitcher BABIP doesn't fluctuate at nearly the rate we see for hitters and the vast majority of MLB pitchers are within .015-.020 points of each other.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah, they had, what, the 2nd, 3rd most available money but signed the 10th ranked international prospect (an OF to boot) and no others in the top 30? Cubs signed the #1, #3, and #17 ranked international prospect.

 

I hardly consider myself a fan of everything the FO does, but statements like this tend to force people into defending them. For your info, they had the 4th most money (before teams started trading it). The signing period is also far from over. The rankings you quoted are equally silly, as the folks doing them don't have the resources to scout them out like they do college players. I suspect that the Twins had Lewin Diaz as the first on their list, as they outbid everyone for his services by a healthy margin. They clearly wanted him. And they have also signed several other higher ceiling guys as well for pretty sizable bonus amounts. There are 32 teams. Last year, they got several guys in the top 30. This year, they have one and may still get some others. They've made it clear they expect to spend their money and have plenty of time to do it.

 

Throw your conniption fit if they don't spend their money.

[ThePuck]

I hardly consider myself a fan of everything the FO does, but statements like this tend to force people into defending them. For your info, they had the 4th most money (before teams started trading it). The signing period is also far from over. The rankings you quoted are equally silly, as the folks doing them don't have the resources to scout them out like they do college players. I suspect that the Twins had Lewin Diaz as the first on their list, as they outbid everyone for his services by a healthy margin. They clearly wanted him. And they have also signed several other higher ceiling guys as well for pretty sizable bonus amounts. There are 32 teams. Last year, they got several guys in the top 30. This year, they have one and may still get some others. They've made it clear they expect to spend their money and have plenty of time to do it.

 

Throw your conniption fit if they don't spend their money.

 

That's for the correction on how much money they had. Did you see the question mark cause I wasn't quite sure. I wasn't stating it as fact. It's not like I said, for example, there are 32 teams in MLB, like you did. Here's one for you. There are only 30 teams not 32 like you said as if it's fact.

 

Second, my original post was in response to this post:

 

'Besides, the international free agent market is well underway and all of the top players have signed deals. The Twins still have about $1.5 million in cap space left. The Twins will not necessarily spend international draft slot money even when they are able to.'

 

How is my response to his post not applicable to that post?

 

Third, I don't care about them spending the money, I care if they spend it on quality instead of quantity. Regardless of what some think, there are scouts who go down there and see enough of those guys to get a feel for how they'll be. The rankings aren't meaningless, or why do they even bother to scout them or give them ranking to begin with? Just because SOME don't feel there's any validity, doesn't make it true. Cubs went out and were aggressive to get players scouts ranked high.

 

Finally...the conniption fit comment? How is that necessary? You think that kind of comment fits the spirit of how the people running this place want exchanging of ideas to be?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Third, I don't care about them spending the money, I care if they spend it on quality instead of quantity. Regardless of what some think, there are scouts who go down there and see enough of those guys to get a feel for how they'll be. The rankings aren't meaningless, or why do they even bother to scout them or give them ranking to begin with? Just because SOME don't feel there's any validity, doesn't make it true. Cubs went out and were aggressive to get players scouts ranked high.

 

The Twins were pretty aggressive last season. Instead of accusing them of being cheap or even doing something wrong, it's possible they don't like this draft class that much and/or they plan to pursue guys later in the year.

 

This is an example of one of the more frustrating parts of this forum. Some are hell-bent on going into a situation with a perceived notion of what is happening and twist the situation to fit their worldview. Some of them are negative. Some are positive. Both are incredibly frustrating.

 

Instead of saying "I wish they would have pursued this player or that player that is off the board", it's "they're cheap". Instead of letting the entire situation unfold before passing judgment, it's "they're incompetent" when we're a few weeks into a long signing period.

 

A little patience and perspective goes a long way, people.

[ThePuck]

The Twins were pretty aggressive last season. Instead of accusing them of being cheap or even doing something wrong, it's possible they don't like this draft class that much and/or they plan to pursue guys later in the year.

 

This is an example of one of the more frustrating parts of this forum. Some are hell-bent on going into a situation with a perceived notion of what is happening and twist the situation to fit their worldview. Some of them are negative. Some are positive. Both are incredibly frustrating.

 

Instead of saying "I wish they would have pursued this player or that player that is off the board", it's "they're cheap". Instead of letting the entire situation unfold before passing judgment, it's "they're incompetent" when we're a few weeks into a long signing period.

 

A little patience and perspective goes a long way, people.

 

And there are some who think Ryan is too conservative overall in how they acquire players.

 

My comment was for what they've done, so far, in the international market this year, and it was in response to someone else saying the same thing and no one is slamming his comment.

 

I also never said they won't end up signing more top quality guys, did I? I expressed what I'd HOPE they'd do, address quality not quantity. Is that a bad wish, Brock? As of now they haven't sealed the deal on any of the top 30 guys except one. Is that a true statement or not, Brock? Have the Cubs signed the 3 of the top international prospects as graded by scouts? Yes or no?

 

What about the part of my post you quoted is wrong, exactly? Where's my accusation, exactly, that you have an issue with? Talk about having a perceived notion.

[diehardtwinsfan]

That's for the correction on how much money they had. Did you see the question mark cause I wasn't quite sure. I wasn't stating it as fact. It's not like I said, for example, there are 32 teams in MLB, like you did. Here's one for you. There are only 30 teams not 32 like you said as if it's fact.

 

Second, my original post was in response to this post:

 

'Besides, the international free agent market is well underway and all of the top players have signed deals. The Twins still have about $1.5 million in cap space left. The Twins will not necessarily spend international draft slot money even when they are able to.'

 

How is my response to his post not applicable to that post?

 

Third, I don't care about them spending the money, I care if they spend it on quality instead of quantity. Regardless of what some think, there are scouts who go down there and see enough of those guys to get a feel for how they'll be. The rankings aren't meaningless, or why do they even bother to scout them or give them ranking to begin with? Just because SOME don't feel there's any validity, doesn't make it true. Cubs went out and were aggressive to get players scouts ranked high.

 

Finally...the conniption fit comment? How is that necessary? You think that kind of comment fits the spirit of how the people running this place want exchanging of ideas to be?

 

The post may be applicable, but the argument is getting old and very tiresome. As I said before, I'm hardly a defender of the front office, but I grow tired of defending what amounts to reasonable moves (even if I disagree with the reasoning) in regards to very unreasonable criticism that quite honestly for some would be there no matter what was done (note, I'm not aiming this statement at you in particular).

 

Go look at their history, the Twins have consistently been one of the more active teams in the international market, and it has been that way for quite some time. They've intentionally branched out into other areas such as Europe and Australia where there's a much lower presence to get access to guys that other teams pass on. That's how they picked up some kid named Kepler a few years back, Thorpe last year, and this Dutch kid this year. I'm also not sure they should be blowing their entire amount on a two or three prospects unless they are really sure this high ceiling kid can succeed. As it is, they are still picking up high ceiling kids, and they aren't done with their spending either. Given that they have almost 4M to spend, going after one of the big ones and throwing 5 or 6 $500k bonuses after other high upside guys is hardly foolish, and that's especially true given the crap shoot nature of the market. These kids are all high upside, though no one in this market was considered to be Sano good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And there are some who think Ryan is too conservative overall in how they acquire players.

 

My comment was for what they've done, so far, in the international market this year, and it was in response to someone else saying the same thing and no one is slamming his comment.

 

I also never said they won't end up signing more top quality guys, did I? I expressed what I'd HOPE they'd do, address quality not quantity. Is that a bad wish?, Brock? As of now they haven't sealed the deal on any of the top 30 guys except one. Is that a true statement or not, Brock? Have the Cubs signed the 3 of the top international prospects as graded by scouts? Yes or no?

 

What about the part of my post you quoted is wrong, exactly? Where's my accusation, exactly, that you have an issue with? Talk about having a perceived notion.

 

Connotation is what is wrong with that post. You didn't approach it as if stating a fact, there was an obvious implication that the Twins were doing something wrong, such as being cheap. Something you've mentioned in more threads than I can count at this point.

 

Listen, the reason I bring this up is simple: the negativity is getting to the point where I don't even want to visit my own damned forum. That's a problem. And I'm asking for two things: reason and perspective. It's not an unreasonable request.

 

It's getting really tiring seeing half the threads on the forum devolve into complaints about the front office, especially in situations like this where the international signing period has barely begun. The Twins have been aggressive in the past in arenas mostly untapped by other organizations. They've done an exemplary job of picking up guys and maybe, just maybe, we can let the situation play out before casting stones at them for not spending all their money in the first five minutes of the signing period.

[ThePuck]

The post may be applicable, but the argument is getting old and very tiresome. As I said before, I'm hardly a defender of the front office, but I grow tired of defending what amounts to reasonable moves (even if I disagree with the reasoning) in regards to very unreasonable criticism that quite honestly for some would be there no matter what was done (note, I'm not aiming this statement at you in particular).

 

Go look at their history, the Twins have consistently been one of the more active teams in the international market, and it has been that way for quite some time. They've intentionally branched out into other areas such as Europe and Australia where there's a much lower presence to get access to guys that other teams pass on. That's how they picked up some kid named Kepler a few years back, Thorpe last year, and this Dutch kid this year. I'm also not sure they should be blowing their entire amount on a two or three prospects unless they are really sure this high ceiling kid can succeed. As it is, they are still picking up high ceiling kids, and they aren't done with their spending either. Given that they have almost 4M to spend, going after one of the big ones and throwing 5 or 6 $500k bonuses after other high upside guys is hardly foolish, and that's especially true given the crap shoot nature of the market. These kids are all high upside, though no one in this market was considered to be Sano good.

 

And all I did was point out what they have done so far with the international prospects, and what I hope they'll do...get more quality than quantity, like the Cubs did. I didn't say they wouldn't, did I? Did I say they are never aggressive in the international market? no.

 

All markets are crapshoot. The first year player draft is a crapshoot. You go out and get the best you can based on the info you have. We need quality players.

[ThePuck]

Connotation is what is wrong with that post. You didn't approach it as if stating a fact, there was an obvious implication that the Twins were doing something wrong, such as being cheap. Something you've mentioned in more threads than I can count at this point.

 

Listen, the reason I bring this up is simple: the negativity is getting to the point where I don't even want to visit my own damned forum. That's a problem. And I'm asking for two things: reason and perspective. It's not an unreasonable request.

 

It's getting really tiring seeing half the threads on the forum devolve into complaints about the front office, especially in situations like this where the international signing period has barely begun. The Twins have been aggressive in the past in arenas mostly untapped by other organizations. They've done an exemplary job of picking up guys and maybe, just maybe, we can let the situation play out before casting stones at them for not spending all their money in the first five minutes of the signing period.

 

What you want is nothing even close to negative. You're to the point where you're making assumptions, and judging people on those assumptions. My viewpoint isn't all one way or all another way, lik some who blanket defend EVERY SINGLE THING the FO does or doesn't do. I look at things by each individual thing.

 

But whatever. It's your site, you make the rules. You're doing to me exactly what the people in charge are telling we mere mortals not to do. You're attacking a poster instead of the points he makes. I asked before what did I say in that quote you replied to that wasn't true. You've yet to respond, other than to tell me that you can read my mind about what I meant, as if I couldn't just come out and say it clear if I meant what you say I meant.

[diehardtwinsfan]

We need quality players.

 

And we are getting them.