Souhan:Twins are done

[howieramone1406390264]

The Twins aren't going to change how they do business. I believe I'm on safe ground by predicting they won't bring any top tier starting pitchers to Target Field. The next 2 long term contracts are probably being reserved for Buxton and Sano.

[Kwak]

Problem is that I don't think he wants one.

 

I disagree! But he is fully aware that the "Twins ain't the Yankees", and that huge budget is not available to him.

 

We need to wait until the off-season and see what happens. There will be talent, pitchers and hitters, available. A repeat of the previous off-season will mean 2014 will be very much like 2013. Wishin' an' hopin'?--sure go ahead. But if you're in that camp, please preface your posts with "I bought a lottery ticket today".

[jorgenswest]

The Twins can use the rest of the season to invest at bats and innings into some pieces that could help in the future.

 

They need a back up catcher that can defend. Do they need to sign someone in the offseason. Can Chris Herrman or Josmil Pinto defend well enough to fill that role? Why not find out?

 

Chris Collabello is putting up great numbers in the minors. Will his skills transfer to the big league? Probably not. Why not find out?

 

Is Andrew Albers for real? Probably not. Why not give him 10 starts?

 

How about Michael Tonkin? Could Hernandez be a LOOGY? Why didn't Slama get a longer look earlier in his career?

 

Hendriks and Worley are both young? Is there space for them in September? Speaking of September how about Sano and Rosario?

 

One of the reasons this can't happen is because the Twins go bargain hunting in the winter. They signed Willingham, Carroll and Correia to multiple years. They get great one year deals with Burton and Doumit and instead of looking for the next bargain they extend them two years. They are funding their decline which only continues the cycle of mediocrity.

 

Meanwhile, they don't get to invest playing time into guys that could actually be part of the solution. Parmelee should have played more last year. Maybe the playing time investment in Plouffe is paying off. I was very concerned they would sign a Hannahan and stall his development opportunity as they did Parmelee.

 

It is time to stop shopping in the bargain bin and buying the fruit that is good for a short time but begins to rot. Instead play the guys not yet ripe and see if they develop.

 

Next year use free agency in two ways. Only sign old guys that will take a one year deal. Overpay an elite younger player to a long contract. If these guys won't come to the Twins yet, don't add to the mediocrity by committing multiple years to guys in the bargain bin. It is better to suffer with guys who will improve.

 

As for this year, move the old guys off the shelf and get whatever they can get. The Twins need the shelf space for new product.

 

What is the worst thing that can happen? Would they lose 95 games this year instead of 90? I would rather lose more games using players who have a chance to get better.

[ThePuck]

There's a coupla surprise teams every year. The Twins were one of those teams in 2011, why couldn't they be one of them in 2013?

 

I don't understand this quote. 2011 was a surprise in what way?

[JB_Iowa]

I don't understand this quote. 2011 was a surprise in what way?

 

In a BAD way.

 

I was very unhappy in October 2010 and thought they needed to take a new direction. It was one of the reasons I wasn't overly unhappy with the JJ Harding/Nishioka swap (okay not literally a swap but trading out one for the other). I still believed that the Twins knew what they were doing and were trying to do something to take themselves beyond making the playoffs to really contending in the playoffs. (Although I still thought they needed to do something with pitching beyond or instead of a 2 year deal with Pavano).

 

But despite taking their payroll to the highest level that year, 2011 was an unmitigated disaster -- and it wasn't all due to injuries.

 

And Kwak, we'll all have to see what he does with his large budgets over the next few years. But I think that being conservative and keeping payroll low is in Terry Ryan's DNA.

[ThePuck]

In a BAD way.

 

I was very unhappy in October 2010 and thought they needed to take a new direction. It was one of the reasons I wasn't overly unhappy with the JJ Harding/Nishioka swap (okay not literally a swap but trading out one for the other). I still believed that the Twins knew what they were doing and were trying to do something to take themselves beyond making the playoffs to really contending in the playoffs. (Although I still thought they needed to do something with pitching beyond or instead of a 2 year deal with Pavano).

 

But despite taking their payroll to the highest level that year, 2011 was an unmitigated disaster -- and it wasn't all due to injuries.

 

And Kwak, we'll all have to see what he does with his large budgets over the next few years. But I think that being conservative and keeping payroll low is in Terry Ryan's DNA.

 

Oh, sorry. That's why I didn't understand. I didn't expect them to do well in 2011 after gutting the bullpen and losing their starting middle infield while doing nothing to address the starting pitching that clearly played over it's abilities as a whole in 2010 and was due to regress, in part, because of the loss of the middle IF.

 

That raise in payroll had mostly to do with pay raises due to players already on the team getting raises, one in particular. It wasn't because the FO went out and tried to acquire pieces to put us over the top.

 

I was very happy with the offseason prior to 2010 season though. I nailed my prediction of the 2010 win/loss record exactly prior to the preseason starting. I was excited about that offseason. Doesn't take much to make me giddy.

[JB_Iowa]

Oh, sorry. That's why I didn't understand. I didn't expect them to do well in 2011

 

Well that's just my take on why 2011 was surprising -- Not sure if that is what Willihammer meant.

 

But I think that in general the preseason projections for the Twins in 2011 were a lot better than the results.

[Riverbrian]

dude, I believe in the twins, so much so that when NYT bashes them , I want to remind them that from 1980 to 1995 they didn't so much as sniff the playoffs when i was growing up out there. I feel you there. I do agree that there was a chance that at the start of the season if mauer morneau and willingham had been hitting as they should in key spots, and the starting pitching had been better we would have been in a better sititution. But still as much as I want to think that the twins are going to win the world series every year, I think I knew that whlie there would be improvement, this would be a rebuilding and get a high draft pick year.

 

I agree with you... I looked at the team on paper and thought... OK... This will be tough...

 

I looked at this season as a chance to see who would be with us in 2014.

 

But I always knew... that as long as Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit were getting the lions share of playing time. This was not going to be a rebuilding year. It was gonna be something else.

 

What I continue to not see with this team is... excitement. I actually fell asleep watching them yesterday!!! I'm not blaming myself for that... I blame them. They put me to sleep.

 

Deduno is the only guy I've seen give a fist pump in the past year and about the only guy who looks like the result matters to him.

 

When was the last time... We plowed a catcher???

 

The last guy who got thrown out trying to take the extra base that I recall was 39 year Jamey Carroll by Gordon. That was a good thing... Not a bad thing... That's playing the game with passion.

 

You won't find me debating the merits of .270 vs. .220 Games are won by not striking out back to back with runners on 3rd and 2nd and nobody out. These types of problems come with youth and I understand that but when the Vets are not doing anything significant to cover for those youth mistakes. I end up falling asleep.

 

What do we have for 2014??? I'm not sure. Mauer, Plouffe, and Arcia are in... Who Else?

[ThePuck]

Well that's just my take on why 2011 was surprising -- Not sure if that is what Willihammer meant.

 

But I think that in general the preseason projections for the Twins in 2011 were a lot better than the results.

 

Fair enough. Just giving you my take and why I didn't get what he was saying. I almost thought it was a typo and he meant 2010 in a good way :-)

[Ozziedavisfan]

I agree with you... I looked at the team on paper and thought... OK... This will be tough...

 

I looked at this season as a chance to see who would be with us in 2014.

 

But I always knew... that as long as Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit were getting the lions share of playing time. This was not going to be a rebuilding year. It was gonna be something else.

 

What I continue to not see with this team is... excitement. I actually fell asleep watching them yesterday!!! I'm not blaming myself for that... I blame them. They put me to sleep.

 

Deduno is the only guy I've seen give a fist pump in the past year and about the only guy who looks like the result matters to him.

 

When was the last time... We plowed a catcher???

 

The last guy who got thrown out trying to take the extra base that I recall was 39 year Jamey Carroll by Gordon. That was a good thing... Not a bad thing... That's playing the game with passion.

 

You won't find me debating the merits of .270 vs. .220 Games are won by not striking out back to back with runners on 3rd and 2nd and nobody out. These types of problems come with youth and I understand that but when the Vets are not doing anything significant to cover for those youth mistakes. I end up falling asleep.

 

What do we have for 2014??? I'm not sure. Mauer, Plouffe, and Arcia are in... Who Else?

I think as far as this team and exicitment deduno is about as good as it's going to get. That's probably that a he has good stuff that for whatever reason while he has more an idea where it's going you never know. For 2014 I think it will be more steps foreword by the hicks, Parmelees, Arcias, Gibsons, and the like. And the introductions if We are lucky of Sano, Buxton (who maybe at AA at the end of the year),Meyer, and maybe another at some point in the year. To a certain extent, and I don't know if you agree with this I think part of the twins problem is that they don't have any players that outwordly show that they hate to lose. That is why I think you don't get alot of the hustle plays, to a certain extent it's contaigous. And that is what worry's me about some of the prospects coming in the system. There is no A-hole.

[greengoblinrulz]

welcome to the realization Mr Souhan

[Riverbrian]

To a certain extent, and I don't know if you agree with this I think part of the twins problem is that they don't have any players that outwordly show that they hate to lose. That is why I think you don't get alot of the hustle plays, to a certain extent it's contaigous. And that is what worry's me about some of the prospects coming in the system. There is no A-hole.

 

I agree 100%...

 

It's my biggest concern going forward and the thing that I know the least about when it comes to this clubs makeup... Cuz... I don't know anything about how these players present themselves in the dugout.

 

I'm just not seeing it on the TV that I'm watching... I don't know if it is or isn't because I don't know the players... But it is... absolutely contagious!!!

 

There is only one truth in my mind. If you are good enough to play in the major leagues... You are good enough to win in the major leagues.

 

I don't care about Gibson getting lit up... It happens... I do care about a pitcher keeping the club in the game (Walters, Deduno, Diamond vs. the Yankees) and if they do... Doing what it takes to win that game when it is there for the taking.

 

This is what Terry Ryan needs to know for 2014... Who can play the game when the score is 2-2 or 3-3?

[ericchri]

Deduno is the only guy I've seen give a fist pump in the past year and about the only guy who looks like the result matters to him.

 

Oswaldo Arcia and Casey Fien would like a word with you...

 

I agree with you for the most part though, there's almost nothing in this team to get excited about. I'm not really a proponent of blowing a whole team up and starting over normally, but I'm getting to that point with this team just so I can at least have something to care about. I'd be much more interested to see whether Josmil Pinto can hit .200 or .250 than I would to see Ryan Doumit do the same. It's not Doumit's fault, per se, but meh.

 

I wonder if I'd feel that way if our farm system wasn't good, but then I'd probably be depressed instead of bored.

[TheLeviathan]

What I continue to not see with this team is... excitement. I actually fell asleep watching them yesterday!!! I'm not blaming myself for that... I blame them. They put me to sleep.

 

The wife is getting a lot less debate from me to switch the channel, I know that.

[drjim]

The Twins can use the rest of the season to invest at bats and innings into some pieces that could help in the future.

 

They need a back up catcher that can defend. Do they need to sign someone in the offseason. Can Chris Herrman or Josmil Pinto defend well enough to fill that role? Why not find out?

 

Chris Collabello is putting up great numbers in the minors. Will his skills transfer to the big league? Probably not. Why not find out?

 

Is Andrew Albers for real? Probably not. Why not give him 10 starts?

 

How about Michael Tonkin? Could Hernandez be a LOOGY? Why didn't Slama get a longer look earlier in his career?

 

Hendriks and Worley are both young? Is there space for them in September? Speaking of September how about Sano and Rosario?

 

One of the reasons this can't happen is because the Twins go bargain hunting in the winter. They signed Willingham, Carroll and Correia to multiple years. They get great one year deals with Burton and Doumit and instead of looking for the next bargain they extend them two years. They are funding their decline which only continues the cycle of mediocrity.

 

Meanwhile, they don't get to invest playing time into guys that could actually be part of the solution. Parmelee should have played more last year. Maybe the playing time investment in Plouffe is paying off. I was very concerned they would sign a Hannahan and stall his development opportunity as they did Parmelee.

 

It is time to stop shopping in the bargain bin and buying the fruit that is good for a short time but begins to rot. Instead play the guys not yet ripe and see if they develop.

 

Next year use free agency in two ways. Only sign old guys that will take a one year deal. Overpay an elite younger player to a long contract. If these guys won't come to the Twins yet, don't add to the mediocrity by committing multiple years to guys in the bargain bin. It is better to suffer with guys who will improve.

 

As for this year, move the old guys off the shelf and get whatever they can get.

The Twins need the shelf space for new product.

 

What is the worst thing that can happen? Would they lose 95 games this year instead of 90? I would rather lose more games using players who have a chance to get better.

 

You bring up a lot of good points/questions and I think most will actually be addressed by the end of the season. Most players you listed will get their shot.

 

I have two pushbacks. Why are the Doumit and Burton extensions offensive? They are role players who make a combined $5 mm. They fit a need on the club but would be relatively painless to jettison if they collapse.

 

Also, you suggest the Twins should invest in young, elite free agents. Sounds great. Who in the next class do you think fits that description?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Good to know that the bullpen is now a mess because they've had a bad week or two.

 

The bullpen is not only fine, it's a pleasant surprise.

 

On the other hand, the rotation is the complete disaster most of us thought it would be before Opening Day.

[jorgenswest]

You bring up a lot of good points/questions and I think most will actually be addressed by the end of the season. Most players you listed will get their shot.

 

I have two pushbacks. Why are the Doumit and Burton extensions offensive? They are role players who make a combined $5 mm. They fit a need on the club but would be relatively painless to jettison if they collapse.

 

Also, you suggest the Twins should invest in young, elite free agents. Sounds great. Who in the next class do you think fits that description?

 

I don't think they will let go of either. I think they will continue to put Doumit behind the plate and not develop Pinto or Herrmann. I think they will pencil Burton in the pen next year instead of developing a longer term solution. Why extend either player for multiple years given their age and injury history? Why not bank the bargain they were in 2012 and look for the next guy on a one year deal. They could have had Burton on a one year deal this year.

 

Free agents like Sanchez are young enough to make sure the Twins get a good portion of their peak. Signing guys past 30 almost guarantees that the Twins pay for the decline. Until the Twins establish a foundation of you get players that play winning baseball, I would not commit to any old guy beyond a year. The Twins spent the mid 90s signing decline phase players and continuing the mediocrity. They finally went young in 1999 and had a foundation in 2001. For the Twins trying to develop and compete did not work. You can also look to the very young teams in the early 80s that were a foundation of the 1987-1992 run.

 

Who is available next year? I don't know. Matt Garza is in his 29 year old season this year. It isn't likely these elite would be interested in signing with the Twins until they have a foundation. I wouldn't sign old guys to multiyear contracts in response to not getting the more valuable players in the market. I would rather lose a few more games with players who will get better as they gain experience.

[S.]

As much as it pains me to say it, I'm glad we got swept by the Yankees. An unpleasant reminder to everyone that we need to be selling damn near anything we can get a good return on before the deadline. Its depressing, but if we're going to be terrible regardless (and we are), then we might as well hope we at least get a good draft pick out of it all.

 

On another note, I enjoy watching Perkins and we have a great contract on him, but I might just lose my mind if I read another report that Terry Ryan isnt even listening to offers. I'd like to imagine he's playing hard to get, but I'm starting to think that might be giving him too much credit.

[Kwak]

When is the last time the Twins provided details for a proposed trade--that never happened?

Point: just because a trade didn't happen, doesn't mean that there wasn't a discussion about a trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

When is the last time the Twins provided details for a proposed trade--that never happened?

Point: just because a trade didn't happen, doesn't mean that there wasn't a discussion about a trade.

 

Sometimes rumblings of an aborted trade get out but the Twins tend to play it close to te vest. One has to assume there are many things discussed that we simply don't know about.

[diehardtwinsfan]

When is the last time the Twins provided details for a proposed trade--that never happened?

Point: just because a trade didn't happen, doesn't mean that there wasn't a discussion about a trade.

 

Span for Storen? I know that one was talked about quite a bit and didn't happen.

[Mike Sixel]

Dumpster dive for pitching, get bad pitching....that is Ryan's plan. Not sure why anyone thinks this will ever change.

[howieramone1406390264]

Dumpster dive for pitching, get bad pitching....that is Ryan's plan. Not sure why anyone thinks this will ever change.

I'm not sure why anyone would think it's going to stay the same. Looks to me they are working pretty hard to develop their own starting pitchers. Rebuilding is a 4 letter word on all fan boards, but unfortunately it's a necessary evil. Unlike most organizations, we have a GM who's been there and done that. You really should read what some of the national experts are saying and take heart from their kind words.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure why anyone would think it's going to stay the same. Looks to me they are working pretty hard to develop their own starting pitchers. Rebuilding is a 4 letter word on all fan boards, but unfortunately it's a necessary evil. Unlike most organizations, we have a GM who's been there and done that. You really should read what some of the national experts are saying and take heart from their kind words.

 

None of that has anything to do with FA. Ryan has only three times signed a deal more than three years and all of them were partial arb buyouts. All mike is doing is pointing out a well established pattern backed up by Ryan's own comments on contracts.

[jokin]

I'm not sure why anyone would think it's going to stay the same. Looks to me they are working pretty hard to develop their own starting pitchers. Rebuilding is a 4 letter word on all fan boards, but unfortunately it's a necessary evil. Unlike most organizations, we have a GM who's been there and done that. You really should read what some of the national experts are saying and take heart from their kind words.

 

Anyone "national expert" that "kindly" praised the Twins method for acquiring Starting Pitching the last 2 offseasons immediately disqualifies himself as a "national expert."

[Old Twins Cap]

You guys can't see the forest for the trees. The Twins are bad, and their players are bad. But at some point, you have to look at the manager and realize that the staleness on his team is his responsibility. No passion? That's on Gardy. No excitement? That's on Gardy. No one who hates to lose? That's Gardy, too. After a decade, it's hard to come to the same job every day and bring a level of intensity and insight that makes a crucial difference to guys three decades younger. That's why teams change managers. Not because Gardy isn't a good guy or likeable or even a good manager. But because it's time.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No where did I say that they will all succeed in the first year, that's why I think the team will play around the .500 mark. What I did say is that Darnell, Meyer, and May will all provide substantial upgrades to a rotation that is one of the worst in baseball now and that overall, they will show flashes of what will be. Some of them will have to succeed at the ML level for them to be a .500 team, but all of them will not have to.

.500 baseball with a team full of rooks and second year players is inherently success relatively...

[drjim]

None of that has anything to do with FA. Ryan has only three times signed a deal more than three years and all of them were partial arb buyouts. All mike is doing is pointing out a well established pattern backed up by Ryan's own comments on contracts.

 

He also had Milton and Mays, and perhaps Lawton too.

 

I think the Twins have only done two contracts in history that were 4 years or more that didn't include some arby years.

 

In a very minor Twins defense, contacts of 4 years or more that don't include some arby years are pretty rare in baseball. I think there were only 4 total last offseason.

[diehardtwinsfan]

You guys can't see the forest for the trees. The Twins are bad, and their players are bad. But at some point, you have to look at the manager and realize that the staleness on his team is his responsibility. No passion? That's on Gardy. No excitement? That's on Gardy. No one who hates to lose? That's Gardy, too. After a decade, it's hard to come to the same job every day and bring a level of intensity and insight that makes a crucial difference to guys three decades younger. That's why teams change managers. Not because Gardy isn't a good guy or likeable or even a good manager. But because it's time.

 

I'm not a Gardy fan, but I can guarantee you that the players on this team aren't as you say and "not bothered" by losing. These aren't a bunch of women who think that the most important thing you do is participate and get a ribbon. These are guys who have gone their whole lives winning and being the star player on their teams. Loosing bothers them, just because they don't show it in a way you deem appropriate doesn't mean they aren't bothered by it.

[raindog]

These aren't a bunch of women who think that the most important thing you do is participate and get a ribbon.

Try not to scare women from these boards with the misogyny.

 

I'm interested in the free agency discussion. Who outside of Anibal Sanchez would have made much of an impact on the 2015 club? Even he will be going into his age 31 season in two years. Greinke would have been ridiculous, and why would he come to Minnesota?

 

As for this coming year, expect to be disappointed. Matt Garza is the best option, but I have my doubts that he wants to come back to Minnesota. A.J. Burnett and Kuroda are aging and I'm guessing will want to sign with a contender. Tim Lincecum and Josh Johnson should be targets, but they won't turn this team around.

 

It's difficult to find good pitchers in free agency. And your team needs to be in the right situation to spend big. I hope after the 2014 season, Terry Ryan can target some better options. That's when we can contend. That's when you overspend for pitchers.