Article: Royals Present a Note of Prospect Caution

[CwK]

I live in KC. And, trust me, I can't talk about the Twins' elite prospects around here. Hoo boy.

[old nurse]

So far from the game tonight you know that Hosmer and Moustkas can still hit inferior pitching.

[RedBull34]

Moose and Hosmer must have read this article and taken offense...3 HR's.

[jerickasdad34]

Nice bulletin board material buddy, kinda jynxed us on that one

[PseudoSABR]

That's true. But at the same time, the fact that Hosmer & Moustakas had succeeded at higher levels made them relatively safer bets, right?

I think it's also important to acknowledge that Sano and Buxton are/were more highly ranked as younger, more inexperienced players than Hosmer and Moustakas--Sano's and Buxton's tools are just that loud.

 

Buxton and Sano are producing better numbers at younger ages than Hosmer and Moustakas--the latter two having some monster AA/AAA seasons. And honestly, I'm hoping that Sano and Buxton don't even have the chance to match their upper level production (they'll be with the big club...).

 

Though the whole exercise is worth while, but I think this says more about the Royals capacity to scout and develop than it does any generalization about the wariness of top ten prospects.

[jun]

Moose and Hosmer must have read this article and taken offense...3 HR's.

4 hrs from the powerless KC tonight against the Twins pitching.

[kab21]

A counter argument to the Royals/Pirates is the Cubs/Mets. For the better part of a decade they have been adding older, breaking down FA's, rushing prospects to help now and trading prospects for help now. And this has resulted in really expensive losing teams that were built on terrible foundations. Both teams are now shedding payroll and have started building a farm system recently.

 

Prospects can bust and they will bust in the Twins system but it's how you rebuild.

[Red Bull]

Wow did you seriously just bring up Hosmer and Moustakas? Hosmer was a bum his first season in the minors. Sano and Buxton were both great in there first years. And actualy have real potential, Hosmer was never supposed to be one of the games best players. Yea they thought he could be an allstar a couple years(Still could be) but he wasnt nearly as elite of a prospect as Sano and Buxton.

 

Moustakas was a bum in his first 2 seasons in the minors aswell. He had a .805 OPS his first year and a .718 his second year. Just like Hosmer we all knew he wouldnt be one of the games best and though maybe he could be an allstar. I didnt think either would be good.

 

They were similar to collabello, hes tearing up AAA but thats the only time in his life he has done something like this. We all know hes not gonna be a great player, hes just a AAA all star that cant translate to the pros. Sano and Buxton have put up amazing numbers in every league they have been in at every age. REAL TALENT! A good prospect will do that, they will be good in every level they have played in.

[howieramone1406390264]

A counter argument to the Royals/Pirates is the Cubs/Mets. For the better part of a decade they have been adding older, breaking down FA's, rushing prospects to help now and trading prospects for help now. And this has resulted in really expensive losing teams that were built on terrible foundations. Both teams are now shedding payroll and have started building a farm system recently.

 

Prospects can bust and they will bust in the Twins system but it's how you rebuild.

The Cubbies are an excellent example on how not to do it. Those who barrage this board on the necessity of being the darlings of the FA market need only study the lovable losers.

[jokin]

The Cubbies are an excellent example on how not to do it. Those who barrage this board on the necessity of being the darlings of the FA market need only study the lovable losers.

 

Or study even harder the other many teams that are and have been generally successful in their FA acquisitions and ask the questions why it has been demonstrated that building from every possible avenue, including FA, works for them.

[jokin]

4 hrs from the powerless KC tonight against the Twins pitching.

 

Twins pitching regressing to the HR/FB mean.

[kab21]

Or study even harder the other many teams that are and have been generally successful in their FA acquisitions and ask the questions why it has been demonstrated that building from every possible avenue, including FA, works for them.

 

I will be the first to criticize this offseason for the Twins. They could have spent more money and done it better but FA isn't where you build a team. I wanted the Twins to acquire some better stopgaps that could actually have trade value. An example of this is Jason Frasor who could add some depth to the bullpen and either be traded himself or make it easier to trade Perkins if a really good deal is on the table.

 

Ironically everyone's favorite whipping boy this offseason has performed better than almost every starter in the <70M price range. In fact the Twins have made several nice FA moves the last two seasons and haven't been burned in FA either.

[Oxtung]

The Cubbies are an excellent example on how not to do it. Those who barrage this board on the necessity of being the darlings of the FA market need only study the lovable losers.

 

If the Twins are clearly smarter than the Pirates and the Royals then why aren't they smarter than the Cubs and the Mets? That seems pretty hypocritical to me.

[TheLeviathan]

The Cubbies are an excellent example on how not to do it. Those who barrage this board on the necessity of being the darlings of the FA market need only study the lovable losers.

 

No one is advocating that. I've yet to see anyone who doesn't say "farm first"....that's simply a strawman. No one wants to be the Cubs....Nats, Cards, Braves...those are the examples used.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Can't hit homers, eh?

 

 

Apparently, the cure is to face Twins pitching... At least for Hosmer it was.

[John Bonnes]

Excellent story Nick. To me, it drives home something we're seeing with Hicks now and have seen in the past with Kubel & Cuddyer (and to a lesser extent Morneau): at the very least, sometimes greatness can take awhile.

 

I'm also intrigued by how this thread and several others are turning into the same debate over & over - and a poorly defined debate at that. I think it is "should the Twins sign upper tier free agent pitchers this offseason?" I say poorly defined because everyone had a different idea of how upper tier is defined, and sadly some seem to purposely try to misrepresent others definitions.

 

With the season only being half way over, its hard to define it too much, since we ont have final results on the pitchers or great guesses on thi likely salaries. So how about this: someone post a new thread eith that topic which includes a list of likely FA pitchers from Cots, and if our feeling especially generous with our time, some stats like ERA, FIP, K/BB. We can debate values and which seem like good fits as the year goes on. And we can include a link to that post in any herd where it looks like members are starting to play with that loose tooth.

 

Any volunteers?

[Rick Blaine]

kyle gibson once told me when i asked him what it was like to be the twins top prospect, "it's a nice honor, but all it really means is that i haven't done anything yet." .

 

great attitude!

[gil4]

Baseball Prospectus | Future Shock: Organizational Rankings, Part 2 2010 Baseball prospectus had KC rated at 10, the Twins at 8 in rating the team's prospects overall

 

From that article: " and there are still plenty of scouts who think disappointing elite-level picks Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer have plenty of upside."

 

That was written in the 2010 preseason, so it sounds like they were ranked fairly high because of draft position/perceived talent rather than performance. Then they put together big seasons in 2010 and became elite prospects. Since then the struggles have returned.

 

Is it possible that 2010 was just an aberration for those two?

[gil4]

Ask yourself this... Would you trade Plouffe straight up for Moustakas ? Would you trade Morneau for Hosmer ? or would we take Hosmer for Parmalee and Colabello ? Maybe the Twins aren't so bad after all?

 

As the Twins GM I would make all three of those trades. As the KC GM, I would tell my secretary "If TR calls, tell him I'm out doing something that isn't a waste of my time."

[Brock Beauchamp]

As the Twins GM I would make all three of those trades. As the KC GM, I would tell my secretary "If TR calls, tell him I'm out doing something that isn't a waste of my time."

 

Yeah, I'd say yes and hang up before the opposing GM could reconsider his stupidity.

[kab21]

No one is advocating that. I've yet to see anyone who doesn't say "farm first"....that's simply a strawman. No one wants to be the Cubs....Nats, Cards, Braves...those are the examples used.

 

When did the Braves and Cards rebuild?

 

The Nats rebuilt through the farm, 2 elite #1 picks, stole Gio for spare prospects and signed one significant FA. That FA has been a bust. All three of these are poor examples of using FA as part of rebuilding. They are using FA to add to pretty good teams.

 

The Pirates/Royals are poor examples but not because the Royals' recent prospects busted. The reason is that for over a decade they completely neglected their farm systems. They weren't active in int'l FA. They repeatedly took lesser talented and cheaper draft picks. They stunk at the MLB level and they stunk at the MiLB level. About 5 years ago both teams got serious about their farm system and started spending big money on overslot picks and int'l FA's. The Royals prospects have disappointed (it happens) but the Pirates have the best record in baseball (they are a bit lucky) due to homegrown players and MLB castoffs.

[TheLeviathan]

When did the Braves and Cards rebuild?

 

I was speaking in reference to utilizing their farm centrally, but not being afraid to trade and sign FA to augment their talent.

 

Your entire post here misses the point of the blog. The point is that sometimes, even when a prospect gives you every reason to be excited, they still flop when they get to the big leagues. It's important to remember that prospects aren't a certainty. That's all, the bulk of your post is arguing against something that hasn't been put forward by anyone.

[righty8383]

If the Royals present a note of prospect caution, do the Rays present a note of prospect hope?

[TheLeviathan]

If the Royals present a note of prospect caution, do the Rays present a note of prospect hope?

 

Well, how are Wade Davis, Scott Kazmir, Delmon Young, and Tim Beckham doing these days? (Those are just four that sprung to mind, I'm sure there are others)

 

I would say hope is more in Oakland A's pitching, the Cardinals, and the Braves. By and large, though, even teams that are very good at developing talent have guys fail when they hit the majors or the high minors. It's just part of the game, but the Royals offer a clear, current example for illustration.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I find it amusing that people here love to talk about the Cards when it comes to successful franchises, yet at the same time, the Cards take a bit of an unorthodox draft approach... They draft heavy on college guys with lower ceilings and higher floors from strong conferences. I think most of us would be pretty disappointed with their drafts, but it works.