Gotta Listen on Perkins?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Thanks for the link. I am convinced. I do think teams are more reluctant in recent seasons to part with good prospects. They are aware of the volatility of closers. However, Perkins could make a huge difference for a team like the Red Sox or Tigers this year. That has to merit a good return in prospects.

 

Yeah, he's an impact upgrade to any team with shaky back of bullpen issues. Teams would have to dangle top 100 guys to get him, and the Twins should be listening.

[cmb0252]

Baseball tonight was on, Pirates vs A's game was rain delayed, and Buster Onley was talking about how poor the RPing market is. He said it is so weak that Jesse Crain is most teams #1 target for closer even though he is currently on the DL. While Crain has had a great year he isn't exactly a example of health/consistency over his career. Onley as reiterated that if the Twins started to list to Perkins a huge bidding war would start.

[DaveW]

I got back and forth on this topic, I think I would only trade him for a package that includes a near major league ready top 50 SP prospect or another amazing package. If not, keep him around and try to contend next season, if we still suck chances are Perkins can still bring back a nice little package.

 

The last thing I want to happen is they trade Perkins, then next you we are "in the hunt" but have a musical chairs of a disaster at closer, then suddenly at the deadline WE are looking for a "proven closer"....and we all remember what happened last time that was the case

[beckmt]

It was noted in another post that Arizona needs relief pitching. Maybe Skaggs could be an answer to help the Twins. Perkins is not being used here that much and the Twins have many relief pitchers coming.

[Craig Arko]

For good or ill, this does magnify the callup of Tonkin. He may be the best closer in waiting on the roster right now.

 

I really don't want to trade Perk but at this point I think Ryan should open the door at least. Maybe feel things out at the ASG.

[DaveW]

It was noted in another post that Arizona needs relief pitching. Maybe Skaggs could be an answer to help the Twins. Perkins is not being used here that much and the Twins have many relief pitchers coming.

Why on earth would Arizona ever make that trade?

 

Would you trade Sano for a guy like Perkins?

[PseudoSABR]

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs has an article comparing Perkins' (and the Met's Parnell's) trade value to Soria's, noting how the Royals failed to pull the trigger until it was too later, and that closers are rarely worth building around.

[Mike Sixel]

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs has an article comparing Perkins' (and the Met's Parnell's) trade value to Soria's, noting how the Royals failed to pull the trigger until it was too later, and that closers are rarely worth building around.

 

great article.

[drjim]

Fine article. We have speculated on possible return but does anyone have a realistic answer to this? I wonder if it is less than we think.

 

I am coming around to a trade but the Twins would need at minimum a young starter that can be in the rotation no later than opening day next year. Would any team give this up?

[ericchri]

I like Perkins as a pitcher, as a personality, as a SABR guy, as a Minnesotan, as a guy with a great contract. I'd love to see him stay.

 

And I think they need to trade him. He fills the make-believe position of closer. We don't need a closer right now, but he's worth a ton right now, i.e. trade him now. I'll worry about having a closer in the future when we actually do "need" one. We have a couple other people who look like they could man the position. Casey Fien's numbers (excepting ERA) are barely worse than Perkins, Tonkin looks like a future closer, maybe Burton finds his groove again. We'll survive without Perkins, but what we get back makes it a little more possible that we're building that future World Series team we're all desperate for.

[cmb0252]

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs has an article comparing Perkins' (and the Met's Parnell's) trade value to Soria's, noting how the Royals failed to pull the trigger until it was too later, and that closers are rarely worth building around.

 

I forgot all about the whole Soria debacle. Yeah, that turned out horrid for the Royals.

[TheLeviathan]

Fine article. We have speculated on possible return but does anyone have a realistic answer to this? I wonder if it is less than we think.

 

I am coming around to a trade but the Twins would need at minimum a young starter that can be in the rotation no later than opening day next year. Would any team give this up?

 

I think possible returns, even in hindsight, are almost impossible to determine. The key is that the Twins shouldn't be closing the door. They should aggressively be exploring possibilities. I hope they are not following their public stance on the matter.

[LaBombo]

The last thing I want to happen is they trade Perkins, then next you we are "in the hunt" but have a musical chairs of a disaster at closer, then suddenly at the deadline WE are looking for a "proven closer"....and we all remember what happened last time that was the case

The next time is next year at the very earliest, and doesn't that time frame seem a tad optimistic, what with the worst rotation in baseball and all?

 

Perkins has 38 saves in the majors. If he's gone by the deadline, it wouldn't be terribly surprising if a reliever currently on the roster would have that many by the time the Twins might realistically contend in 2015.

 

And the way to not get burned in a trade for a proven closer is to not trade for a proven closer. Nathan, Aguilera, and Guardado top the Twins' all-time leader board in saves, and they were all converted starters who didn't emerge as closers until their late 20's or early 30's.

 

Replacing Perkins by 2015 wouldn't be the least of the Twins' worries, but it's hard to see it cracking the top five.

[B Richard]

I'll post it again, because everyone should read this article if they have an opinion on Perkins: The Mets and Twins Should Remember Joakim Soria | FanGraphs Baseball

 

There's a great breakdown by Dave Cameron-- and wow is all I can say about the results. Aside from having already believed that shutdown closers are unnecessary luxuries on losing teams, I have to say this article put things into perspective for me. The nature of success for many guys, especially pitchers, can be fleeting.

 

I believe now more than ever that Perkins has to be traded, assuming of course that there is quite a bit of interest in him on the market and the quality offers one would expect to arise therefrom.

[DaveW]

So your saying sometimes pitchers get arm injuries? How novel.

 

Holding onto elite closers is always a bad idea clearly, just ask the Yankees

[beckmt]

So your saying sometimes pitchers get arm injuries? How novel.

 

Holding onto elite closers is always a bad idea clearly, just ask the Yankees

 

Over the last 40 years there have been about 10 dominant closers who did not burn out in one way or another. Rivera was one. Twins have many holes to fill, they should look for close to major league ready piece that becomes available. How would you like to be the GM knowing you have a bullpen issue, do nothing because you do not like the price, and your bullpen explodes in September and your team misses the playoffs, look no futher than Boston a few years ago. GM's feel a lot of pressure, they will make a bad deal to win now, Twins should cash in. Twins should also pass, if the deal does not feature either a close to major league ready starting pitcher or SS. Arizona has both.

[CwK]

I forgot all about the whole Soria debacle. Yeah, that turned out horrid for the Royals.

 

Speaking of the Royals and misguided hopes of top prospect returns, a KC sports radio guy keeps throwing out the idea of trading Ervin Santana for Jurickson Profar. Says the Royals would "have to look into it."

 

It's ridiculous to see some of the expectations surrounding potential trade chips. I won't believe any of the speculation until I see it. But, it is fun to talk about.

[Guest USAFChief]

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs has an article comparing Perkins' (and the Met's Parnell's) trade value to Soria's, noting how the Royals failed to pull the trigger until it was too later, and that closers are rarely worth building around.

Dave "no. 6 org" Cameron? Dave "Robby Cano will never hit in the majors" Cameron? That guy?

 

Well that settles it.

[DaveW]

If someone offers you some cant miss prospect then yes, pull the trigger but don't trade him just to trade him because some pitchers tend to get hurt from time to time.

 

Also whoever said we could get Skaggs for him is high, teams aren't going to give up top SP talent for a closer, they might give you one top 100 guy and a couple of other decent prospects, but at this pont the twins need MLb talent everywhere, and Perkins provides that.

[DaveW]

Also, you can point to the royals and say "well that's why you should rely on prospects" for the reason of their struggles, so by that thought the Royals should have never traded away their top talents. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

 

Also I like Dave Cameron, but the guy is off base here

[twinswon1991]

I have no faith in TR having the guts to do the right thing and trade Perk at peak value. He totally bungled opportunities to cash in on Morneau, Doumit, and Willy last year when some pitching reinforcements couldve been had.

 

It is sad how he still sees RBI, SV, and pitcher wins as measures of skills. The game passed TR by years ago and Twins fans have to pay the price.

[DaveW]

Perkins skills and value go far beyond saves....check out his k/bb, FiP, xfIP as well....

[SurroundedByTigers]

Perkins' value is only realized if you think the Twins have a chance of winning, and to win, we need a better offense, and better across the board starting pitching. If the Twins believe they can be competitive next season with plenty of fresh blood from the minors, then you keep Perkins. But my big fear is a guy like Alex Meyer, who the Twins are counting on next season to move from AA to fill a spot in the starting rotation with the big team, will need shoulder surgery or something. That's a huge hole suddenly, and seems like the only reason why Perkins could be traded.

[DaveW]

The Twins have 35-50 million available to spend on the free agent market next year, while I don't expect them to sign any "aces" they can easily sign a couple mid rotation solid arms like Hughes etc and take a chance on a guy like Lincecum etc.

 

Also for the bullpen, I am a believer in having a lights out 9th and 8th inning guy, if you can set that up you have a huge advantage over a lot of teams. Keep Perkins in the 9th and figure out if Burton can be that great 8th inning guy again, if not, then perhaps Tonkin can be that guy.

 

Also even "if" the Twins aren't competitive in 2014 they would still have Perkins under contract for TWO more years! 2015, and 2016 is what people seem to think our real "chance" is with Meyer, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, May, etc etc etc all up and contributing.

 

I would understand this setiment if he was only signed through next year, but we have him until 2016!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I like Perkins, and his contract and recent performance are both awesome, but I gotta say, if they're not even going to use him, they might as well trade him. He's getting less playing time than EACH of our two light-hitting backup infielders, and barely more than our little-used backup OF/PH spot was getting:

 

Season:

Carroll 159 PA

Escobar 143 PA

Perkins 122 BF

Ramirez 95 PA pace when injured

 

He's on pace for less than 60 IP this season, lower than any previous Twins closer (Guardado, Nathan, Capps).

 

Could probably cross-post this to the "Let Gardy Go" thread -- as much as I generally don't mind Gardy, I'd like to see a little flexibility and aggressiveness as his roster conditions change. He's still just saving Perk for those 9th inning leads which never come.

[DaveW]

I like Perkins, and his contract and recent performance are both awesome, but I gotta say, if they're not even going to use him, they might as well trade him. He's getting less playing time than EACH of our two light-hitting backup infielders, and barely more than our little-used backup OF/PH spot was getting:

 

Season:

Carroll 159 PA

Escobar 143 PA

Perkins 122 BF

Ramirez 95 PA pace when injured

 

He's on pace for less than 60 IP this season, lower than any previous Twins closer (Guardado, Nathan, Capps).

 

Could probably cross-post this to the "Let Gardy Go" thread -- as much as I generally don't mind Gardy, I'd like to see a little flexibility and aggressiveness as his roster conditions change. He's still just saving Perk for those 9th inning leads which never come.

 

Well he hasn't had much opp lately because the Twins have been getting beaten like a red headed step child recently, I don't really see the need to give him a bunch of work in meaningless games we are losing.

 

Also even with the lack of innings, Perkins by far has the highest WAR of anyone on the pitching staff and trails only Mauer and Dozier(!) for highest WAR on the team.

[ThePuck]

Perkins. There are some people who consistently defend the FOs FA moves that say that we shouldn't bother signing quality people now, because we aren't going to be competitive until 2015 or 2016 at the earliest and there's all those wasted years, but also argue we should keep Perkins, who is only cheap now, but who we likely won't pay to keep when he prices himself out of town in 2015, 2016. In other words, he won't be around when the supposedly guaranteed competitive time starts either. I'm sure if Perkins is traded and there's outrage, those same people will flip again and say it was a good move to trade him.

 

He's only signed through 2015 with a 2016 option, so if we can get a good haul for him, why not trade him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Soria is actually a pretty good comp. Great performance, great contract, terrible team 2+ years away from contention.

 

They failed to deal him, he got hurt in the first of 3 option years, and they INSTANTLY replaced him just fine by signing Jonathan Broxton, who they then flipped at the deadline and again INSTANTLY replaced him with Greg Holland.

[DaveW]

Perkins. There are some people who consistently defend the FOs FA moves that say that we shouldn't bother signing quality people now, because we aren't going to be competitive until 2015 or 2016 at the earliest and there's all those wasted years, but also argue we should keep Perkins, who is only cheap now, but who we likely won't pay to keep when he prices himself out of town in 2015, 2016. In other words, he won't be around when the supposedly guaranteed competitive time starts either. I'm sure if Perkins is traded and there's outrage, those same people will flip again and say it was a good move to trade him.

 

He's only signed through 2015 with a 2016 option, so if we can get a good haul for him, why not trade him?

2016 is a team option....there is nothing that says they couldn't extend him again in the future either. Good lord, people act like its a sure thing he is gone come 2017 which is dumb to even worry about as it is 4 years away at this point!

 

2015/2016 the Twins will be competitive. 2014 they could have a shot as well.

[ThePuck]

There has been rumors on this board of those 3 players being made available. Please provide the specific details to cement your credibility. Terry Ryan embraces advanced statistics. He was recently quoted as saying only fools and gentiles don't use sabermetrics. The game may have passed him by years ago, but it circled back when he traded for Meyer, May, and drafted Buxton and Stewart.

 

Ryan doesn't draft players in the first year's player draft. He has said so himself.

 

Ryan has also said that he goes and talks to the stats guy before he makes a move, but if he disagrees he makes the move anyway. He's basically going there to look for affirmation on what he's going to do anyway and does it whether he gets that affirmation or not.