Gotta Listen on Perkins?

[Siehbiscuit]

Perkins being an inexpensive and great closer not only makes him a VERY tradeable commodity, but it opens the bidding up to all teams. Small market teams can afford him because he is cheap. I would think a team (this is only an example) like the Indians that are in contention this year and have an awesome SS prospect in Francisco Lindor would be a prime example (they and we would never trade within the division). But getting an inexpensive closer such as Perkins makes him even more attractive to a small market team.

 

If Cleveland put Lindor on the table would you trade Perkins to a divisional foe?

[Siehbiscuit]

Would a package from the Pirates consisting of a very good SS prospect in Alen Hanson (Baseball America #61) and SP James Taillon (BA #19) be enough to pry Perkins away?

[blairpaul715]

I don't think they would give that much away, one or the other and another, lower tier prospect, just think of it in terms of if we needed a Closer, would you be willing to send, a healthy Alex Meyer and another top 50 prospect for any closer? We don't have the prospects that line up close to your proposed Taillon Hanson scenario, but hopefully you get the drift. And yes that would be easily enough to pry away Perkins, I would be ticked if that offer came along and we didn't take it.

[blairpaul715]

Just wondering Brock, I assume you don't like Terdo at all?? So you would prefer Colabello or Parmalee at first instead, or none of the above?

[Rosterman]

You don't need a closer if you aren't contending. The Twins AREN'T contending. They can survive with Burton in the role, or perhaps bring back...Capps...or give someone (Tonkin) an early opportunity.

 

The closer is the most overvalued role on a team. Most have 3-5 years...years before (like Perkins) being a starter or middle relief guy. Years after, mopping up. Being a lefty, if he stays healthy, Perkins will always have a job. He may not eventually close, but he'll have a job.

 

Closers are overvalued at trade deadlines or when a contending team loses their closer. It is the time to shoot for the moon and get a variety of payback players, hoping one will stick.

 

Right now, the Twins have to be set to strike and move ANYONE when they start to show a little greatness on the field. Yes, if Clete Thomas hit, you trade him...he is not the future. If Willingham can run out to leftfield and back, you make sure that clip gets on Baseball Tonight. Right now, looking at two potential trade chips -- Willingham and Pelfry -- the last thing the Twins need is a Pavano/Capps where both are injured and get you nothing in return when you should be getting something, clearing payroll AND roster space. Pelfry signing a one-year contract without an option was his gamble, hoping to shine to make more bucks next year. So cutting ties with him is a no brainer.

 

Justin Morneau would be a no brainer, too. The Twins WILL NOT make a qualifying offer, so cut the guy loose, but if you truly want him, be competitive when he becomes a free agent. If you reward Justin by getting him a temporary stop at a pennant winner and potential World Series player, it may make him momentarily happy. If he truly wants to stay a Twins...after this vacation...he will come back.

 

Correia is a trade chip, too. I would rather not see DeVries, Hendriks or Hernandez replace him, but they CAN.

 

The sad part about trading ANY players is the fact that the Twins MAY hover around .500 this season. Trading away a bunch of players may send us into a funk and end the season, at 72-90. But with more future potential on the horizon, is it better than finishing the season 78-84 and still losing Pelfry, Morneau and not strengthining the system by adding addiutional players by trading out Willingham, Correia and...Perkins?

[blairpaul715]

If Cleveland put Lindor on the table would you trade Perkins to a divisional foe?

 

I would take that trade in a heartbeat.

[jokin]

Would a package from the Pirates consisting of a very good SS prospect in Alen Hanson (Baseball America #61) and SP James Taillon (BA #19) be enough to pry Perkins away?

 

The Pirates already have 2 of the top 3 relievers in baseball in Grilli and Melancon and a pretty decent lefty in Justin Wilson. Not likely they would get that desperate unless one of them goes down.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Would a package from the Pirates consisting of a very good SS prospect in Alen Hanson (Baseball America #61) and SP James Taillon (BA #19) be enough to pry Perkins away?

 

If Pit would do this, absolutely. For a team like Pittsburg though, that's a pretty high price to pay.

[Mike Sixel]

For a good SS or SP prospect, yes. Maybe for a good C prospect, yes. Tie him with a mediocre Twins prospect at SS, and get a good SS. Tie him with one of the mionr league RPers, or one of their many number 5 pitchers, get a good SS or SP prospect.....that's what I'd do (assuming some stuff below).

 

Unless Ryan plans to agressively add legit MLB players in the offseason, he is probably writing off next year (I disagree that should be the path, but if it is.....), and if that is the path, he should be dealing Perkins for sure.

 

so, the Perkins question is really tied to Ryan's overall strategy for 2014, imo. Or, he should be. Because I'm not sure this year is really consistent in its strategic approach.......

[Shane Wahl]

I would rather test the market for Burton and Duensing.

[jokin]

I would rather test the market for Burton and Duensing.

 

Test them too. The return would obviously be a whole lot lower, even in a package deal.

[raindog]

Would a package from the Pirates consisting of a very good SS prospect in Alen Hanson (Baseball America #61) and SP James Taillon (BA #19) be enough to pry Perkins away?

 

I think a trade of Perkins for one of those guys straight up would be a steal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think a trade of Perkins for one of those guys straight up would be a steal.

 

Eh, not for Hanson. Taillon, for sure.

 

I think some are underestimating just how important it is that Perkins is signed for 3 1/2 seasons for like a buck-fifty a year.

[DaveW]

Eh, not for Hanson. Taillon, for sure.

 

I think some are underestimating just how important it is that Perkins is signed for 3 1/2 seasons for like a buck-fifty a year.

 

I would trade Perkins straight up for either one of those guys. With Hansen you probably need another guy who is close to major league ready (like a back end rotation guy or something) but Hansen is something really special IMO, that could be our answer to SS right there.

[raindog]

Yeah, for Hanson, I'd probably want some filler prospects thrown in. That would be realistic value for Perkins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would trade Perkins straight up for either one of those guys. With Hansen you probably need another guy who is close to major league ready (like a back end rotation guy or something) but Hansen is something really special IMO, that could be our answer to SS right there.

 

I guess it all depends on preference. In my opinion, if the Twins have legitimate MLB talent to trade, it's time to start asking for more than low minors, high upside guys. Ask for close-to-MLB talent in return to start prepping for the arrival of Gibson, Hicks, Sano, Buxton, Meyers, etc.

 

If the only return you can get is high upside, low minors (say, for a Willingham type), then you take it. But not for Perkins.

 

And no "good prospect and filler" trades for in-demand MLB talent. I'd say "marquee prospects or no deal". Filler is just that... Filler. The Twins don't need filler. They have an organization full of filler talent. They need to start laying down a hard date for a "launch window" and be ready to compete at that point. My opinion is that date should be 2015.

[TheLeviathan]

Shop but don't look to sell unless you get blown away. Our timeline to contend is approaching faster than we thought and Perkins isn't a flash in the pan guy like Burton or Willingham. We can trust his talent going forward.....so the price has to be high.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Shop but don't look to sell unless you get blown away. Our timeline to contend is approaching faster than we thought and Perkins isn't a flash in the pan guy like Burton or Willingham. We can trust his talent going forward.....so the price has to be high.

 

Yep, all of this.

[drjim]

Shop but don't look to sell unless you get blown away. Our timeline to contend is approaching faster than we thought and Perkins isn't a flash in the pan guy like Burton or Willingham. We can trust his talent going forward.....so the price has to be high.

 

I agree with this. Absolutely no need to trade Perkins for the sake of making a trade. They need to be blown away.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree with this. Absolutely no need to trade Perkins for the sake of making a trade. They need to be blown away.

 

Exactly. I'm all about sell high, but Perkins doesn't fit that. The more I watch him the more he reminds me of Billy Wagner...I'd rather hold on to that commodity.

[nicksaviking]

I would rather test the market for Burton and Duensing.

 

Flea market in Duensing's case?

 

I'm pretty open to trading Perkins. I love having a shut down closer but I'm in the camp that they are overrated mostly because there are so many guys who can get the job done. Plenty of teams crank out unknown pitchers every year who end up being a dominant closer. San Francisco and St. Louis seem to do it yearly.

 

Generally they only get three outs so there is very little variance to the possible outcomes of their outings. What I'm trying to say is that while we could certainly rank closers based on who is the best, their actual results aren't going to vary much.

 

There are just so many guys who can duplicate the end results even if they aren't considered among the best closers in the league. 24 of the 30 teams have closers with 14 saves, they all are on pace for a 30+ save season. Only two of them have no blown saves and I don't think anyone would consider Edward Mujica or Grant Balfour to be the best closers in the league, while only three of them have blown five saves and no one has blown more than that number. 21 pitchers have 14 or more saves and four or fewer blown saves. The results are just too similar.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Personally, I'm not all that concerned with which role Perkins is playing in the bullpen. I'm concerned with having a bullpen filled with good options. Maybe the role he's currently playing is "overvalued," maybe not. But having a shutdown bullpen, with multiple good arms, is NOT overvalued at all, IMO.

 

Perkins is good enough, young enough, and cheap enough to be a part of that future bullpen. I'd rather have him around to make the team better in the long-term (or at least the mid-term) than trade him for the chance someone else might eventually contribute. TINSTAAPP and all that.

 

Trade from excess. Trade from assets that won't/can't be around in 2014 and going forward. Trade spare parts that are temporarily overvalued and/or fill a glaring need for another team.

 

But don't trade away talent that will be around for a while. Add to that pool.

 

While in general I agree with your notion that the Twins should stock pile all of the quality pitching they can, I don't think Perkins will maintain his quality long enough to truly get Return On Investment. Losing teams get no ROI on closers, and I don't think Perkins will maintain his quality long enough for this team to become a winner. If the return on the trade is good enough, trade him while he has more value to other teams than he does to the Twins. Look at Hammer, his peak trade value was early last offseason. The Twins held on to him, now his value stinks.

 

Timing is everything, and no player, even pitchers, should be off limits.

[Mike Sixel]

What's the delta between Perkins and an average closer? 2-3 wins a year, max?*

 

*no, I'm not using WAR here....

 

The Flawed Importance of the Closer - The Triangle Blog - Grantland

 

Average MLB teams win 95% of the time with a lead after 8.......a great closer is a luxury, imo, and if you can turn one into someone that pitches more than 60 innings a year, or plays 130 games in the field, do it.

[edavis0308]

Flea market in Duensing's case?

 

I'm pretty open to trading Perkins. I love having a shut down closer but I'm in the camp that they are overrated mostly because there are so many guys who can get the job done. Plenty of teams crank out unknown pitchers every year who end up being a dominant closer. San Francisco and St. Louis seem to do it yearly.

 

Generally they only get three outs so there is very little variance to the possible outcomes of their outings. What I'm trying to say is that while we could certainly rank closers based on who is the best, their actual results aren't going to vary much.

 

There are just so many guys who can duplicate the end results even if they aren't considered among the best closers in the league. 24 of the 30 teams have closers with 14 saves, they all are on pace for a 30+ save season. Only two of them have no blown saves and I don't think anyone would consider Edward Mujica or Grant Balfour to be the best closers in the league, while only three of them have blown five saves and no one has blown more than that number. 21 pitchers have 14 or more saves and four or fewer blown saves. The results are just too similar.

 

While I'm not sure how much it would change the number... you should probably be looking at the team's blown saves... not the individual. There is a reason that some players haven't blown more saves (see also: Valverde, Jose & Marmol, Carlos). It's because you don't put in a spot to blow any more or you get DFA'ed.

 

EDIT:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/sort/blownSaves/type/expanded/order/true

[JB_Iowa]

I like Perkins and I love the way he has turned his career around the last couple of years. I also think he wants to be a Twin ... he truly is at home. He seems to have a strong family life so he could probably transfer that home somewhere else and keep performing but I'm sure the entire family would prefer to stay in Minnesota.

 

I've been torn on whether the Twins should trade Perk but to me, they obviously have to listen to all offers. It depends on how you view the team now and next season (as well as 2015 & 2016). For me, I still see the Twins as a marginal team next year. And while I think more of the youth will have arrived by 2015, I doubt that they will be championship caliber then either (although they may very well be in the playoff hunt).

 

Having a shut-down closer (assuming Perkins remains one) is a luxury on a mediocre team. But maybe it is a psychologically important one especially if that mediocre team has a lot of young players. I want young players to believe that if they work hard enough and can manufacture enough runs, the closer will finish it off for them.

 

On the other hand, I also believe that the Twins have a better record in recognizing and creating strong relievers than they do with starting pitchers. I continue to worry that many of the position players will succeed and get to the majors and that the starting pitching will continue to be mediocre at best so for me, that starting pitching pool can never be deep enough. If Perkins could be part of a trade that would return a high-end starting pitching prospect, I hope the Twins are open to it.

 

This is one where I won't complain much regardless of what happens (as long as the trade is good enough if there is one).

[johnnydakota]

So we may get to see what it is like to be on the other side of the Capps / Ramos trade.....Nice.

 

I still don't see us making a trade as I see Perkins being around when we are competitive again.

 

Isint he only signed through 2015? For a change it would be nice to buy low and sell High..

[JB_Iowa]

There's a team option for 2016. About $4 million if I remember right.

[chopper0080]

First question is what is the market? Arizona, Los Angeles, San Diego (maybe), St. Louis (maybe), Detroit, and Boston.

 

Who else is available? Addison Reed hurts Perkins value, but there are very few other names lurking around which is good.

 

My first thought was we need at top SP. My second thought was how do I feel about Dee Gordon who is currently mired in AAA? Not a great player, but young, fast and blocked by Hanley Ramirez. The Dodgers don't have much in terms of arms in the minors, but Gordon is a very expendable asset for them right now. I will be honest, I haven't done the research on him, but how do people on the board feel?

[johnnydakota]

Would a package from the Pirates consisting of a very good SS prospect in Alen Hanson (Baseball America #61) and SP James Taillon (BA #19) be enough to pry Perkins away?

Wow.....

[johnnydakota]

First question is what is the market? Arizona, Los Angeles, San Diego (maybe), St. Louis (maybe), Detroit, and Boston.

 

Who else is available? Addison Reed hurts Perkins value, but there are very few other names lurking around which is good.

 

My first thought was we need at top SP. My second thought was how do I feel about Dee Gordon who is currently mired in AAA? Not a great player, but young, fast and blocked by Hanley Ramirez. The Dodgers don't have much in terms of arms in the minors, but Gordon is a very expendable asset for them right now. I will be honest, I haven't done the research on him, but how do people on the board feel?

 

 

No on Gordon