Gotta Listen on Perkins?

[ashbury]

If really good relievers are so easy to find why all the posts claiming there will be a bidding war for Perkins?

 

The other answer to this question I meant to add was that the original poster paraphrased Buster Olney to this effect. Whether accurate or not (I haven't checked), it is probably what set most people onto using that phrase.

[beckmt]

I expect one GM will make an offer that would be a mistake for the Twins to turn down if they listen. They just have to listen. There are several clubs looking for relief at the back end(Boston, Arizona, LAD, Baltimore, Texas, Detroit(if you want to trade Perkins in the division). Twins should find a buyer. MLBtraderumors has stated at least once that if the Twins made Perkins available there would be a bidding war for his services. Let it begin. St. Louis over the last 3 years have used several different closers and efficientcy has not been greatly affected, why should the Twins when it will not matter for probably 2 years.

[cmb0252]

If really good relievers are so easy to find why all the posts claiming there will be a bidding war for Perkins?

 

Again...stop thinking of Perkins in terms of "closer.". He's one of 7 pieces in a bullpen. Finding 10-12 good pieces to get u through a season is not easy. Far from it.

 

Have you read the fan graph, Onley, and/or Schoenfield articles that have been posted on here several times? I ask because they not only answer your question about a bidding war but about why closers (elite bull pen arms) are worth trading at their highest value. Bull pen arms are volatile. Even the best ones.

[jorgenswest]

Have you read the fan graph, Onley, and/or Schoenfield articles that have been posted on here several times? I ask because they not only answer your question about a bidding war but about why closers (elite bull pen arms) are worth trading at their highest value. Bull pen arms are volatile. Even the best ones.

 

Thoughts on the Olney/Schoefield piece.

 

Trade Talk: Glen Perkins - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

 

I looked at all 30 year old relievers from 1991-2010. There were 32 relievers. Here is the data with the help of baseball reference's play index.

 

While it is true that closers change teams often, you will notice that most effective relievers remain effective through age 33. They may change roles to starter (Dempster) or set up man (Soriano joining Yankees), but they remain effective. The closer workload may also keep those relievers healthier than set up men.

 

Ineffective relievers, without surprise, were very volatile.

 

Schoenfield could have pointed out that there is a good chance that Perkins will be an effective pitcher the next three years. He didn't point it out because he studied more from a team perspective.

 

Is the likelihood that a #50 prospect will have a significant major league career on par with the likelihood that Perkins will continue to be an effective pitcher the next three years? That will be up to the Twins management.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Thoughts on the Olney/Schoefield piece.

 

Trade Talk: Glen Perkins - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

 

I looked at all 30 year old relievers from 1991-2010. There were 32 relievers. Here is the data with the help of baseball reference's play index.

 

While it is true that closers change teams often, you will notice that most effective relievers remain effective through age 33. They may change roles to starter (Dempster) or set up man (Soriano joining Yankees), but they remain effective. The closer workload may also keep those relievers healthier than set up men.

 

Ineffective relievers, without surprise, were very volatile.

 

Schoenfield could have pointed out that there is a good chance that Perkins will be an effective pitcher the next three years. He didn't point it out because he studied more from a team perspective.

 

Is the likelihood that a #50 prospect will have a significant major league career on par with the likelihood that Perkins will continue to be an effective pitcher the next three years? That will be up to the Twins management.

 

So in other words, just about when the Twins are going to be consistently good, Perkins is most likely to start dropping off.

 

I realize that it isn't exact science, but it goes into what I think a few are pointing out, when the Twins will likely need that shut down closer, the odds are good that Perkins won't be it. I do hope I'm wrong.

[jorgenswest]

So in other words, just about when the Twins are going to be consistently good, Perkins is most likely to start dropping off.

 

Is that what I wrote?

 

I think there is a good chance he will remain effective for the next three years. At that point the Twins no longer have control. I didn't speculate beyond three years. I don't know when the Twins will be good again, but I do know it will take effective pitchers. Are there any other pitchers on the roster as likely to be effective the next three years?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Is that what I wrote?

 

I think there is a good chance he will remain effective for the next three years. At that point the Twins no longer have control. I didn't speculate beyond three years. I don't know when the Twins will be good again, but I do know it will take effective pitchers. Are there any other pitchers on the roster as likely to be effective the next three years?

 

It's not what you wrote, it's a reasonable conclusion from what you posted though. I'm with the crowd that says you trade him if you get a good deal, which is either 2 top 100 guys or a top 50 guy and a high ceiling lower guy... I wouldn't do it just to do it though. Perk has a lot of value to the team now. My personal opinion on closers though is that these can be made. They could install Fein in that role and let him do it and trade him in a year or two as well.

 

As for the Twins 2015/16 timeframe is likely when they will be reasonably good. And for potential pen options, I suspect there are a few in the minors. Tonkin looks like he could be one of them as does Zach Jones and maybe Jose Gonzalez. There are also a few guys from the 2012 class that were very successful relievers in college that will likely return there if their attempts to start fail. Truth be told as well, this is an area that the Twins have been successful getting help with in FA.. And spending 3-4/year on a shut down relief pitcher to augment the next wave is a far more likely scenario than giving a starter 10-14M/year.

[cmb0252]

Is that what I wrote?

 

I think there is a good chance he will remain effective for the next three years. At that point the Twins no longer have control. I didn't speculate beyond three years. I don't know when the Twins will be good again, but I do know it will take effective pitchers. Are there any other pitchers on the roster as likely to be effective the next three years?

 

Relief pitchers bring very little value over a full season. This is made obvious by the fact that we have a solid bullpen and are still one of the worst teams in baseball. But for playoff teams? Playoff teams live and die by a single bad inning and trusted relief arms become a premium at the trade deadline.

 

The Twins won't make the playoffs this year. Outside of a lot of lucky breaks next year they most likely still won't make the playoffs. Realistically the hope is that by 2015, which there is no guarantee our young guys will be ready for a push, that we fight a playoff spot. The question is wasting 1 1/2, possibly more, of Perkins effective years worth it?

[jorgenswest]

It's not what you wrote, it's a reasonable conclusion from what you posted though. I'm with the crowd that says you trade him if you get a good deal, which is either 2 top 100 guys or a top 50 guy and a high ceiling lower guy... I wouldn't do it just to do it though. Perk has a lot of value to the team now. My personal opinion on closers though is that these can be made. They could install Fein in that role and let him do it and trade him in a year or two as well.

 

As for the Twins 2015/16 timeframe is likely when they will be reasonably good. And for potential pen options, I suspect there are a few in the minors. Tonkin looks like he could be one of them as does Zach Jones and maybe Jose Gonzalez. There are also a few guys from the 2012 class that were very successful relievers in college that will likely return there if their attempts to start fail. Truth be told as well, this is an area that the Twins have been successful getting help with in FA.. And spending 3-4/year on a shut down relief pitcher to augment the next wave is a far more likely scenario than giving a starter 10-14M/year.

 

Is it reasonable to expect those kind of returns?

 

The only trade last year that was close to that return was Jean Segura (#55) and Johnny Hellweg who was #4 in the Angels system. It took Grienke to get that deal.

 

I don't think a closer can get that kind of return. I found no comps for reliever trades with that type of return in the last 4 years. If the expectation on Ryan is that he can get a Grienke level return for Perkins, any trade is almost certain to disappoint.

 

If a lesser return means the best option is to keep Perkins, then he is almost certain to remain.

[Kwak]

The Red Sox just got Matt Thorton from the CWSox--so they got their LH RP.

[Oxtung]

When you are solely counting on prospects to turn your franchise around then you need to collect as many high quality guys as possible so that even when a number of them don't pan out you still have enough make to make an impact at the major league level. Right now Perkins seems to be the only player who might bring back a significant return so I think you move him for the best offer. I don't think Perkins will still be an effective closer by 2016, which is when I think Twins will potentially be opening their window of contention, so this is a very easy decision IMO.

[jorgenswest]

When you are solely counting on prospects to turn your franchise around then you need to collect as many high quality guys as possible so that even when a number of them don't pan out you still have enough make to make an impact at the major league level. Right now Perkins seems to be the only player who might bring back a significant return so I think you move him for the best offer. I don't think Perkins will still be an effective closer by 2016, which is when I think Twins will potentially be opening their window of contention, so this is a very easy decision IMO.

 

We agree on the need for prospects. The comps aren't there for many of the kinds of trades discussed on this site. It isn't reasonable to expect a Grienke type return for a reliever. The best return for a reliever in the last 4 years might be Wilson Ramos and he was having a very poor season in AAA.

 

The best return possible might not include a top 100 prospect. Instead, it might include two guys in the top 300. I think the Twins need to do that deal. I also believe that Ryan will be blasted either way. If he trades Perkins in line with comps, it won't be near the deal expected. If he keeps him, there will be revisionist history saying he should have pulled the trigger on those top prospects he must have been offered.

 

I didn't believe a league average CF could bring a top 50 prospect starting pitcher. He pulled that deal off. Maybe he can do the same with Perkins.

[cmb0252]

We agree on the need for prospects. The comps aren't there for many of the kinds of trades discussed on this site. It isn't reasonable to expect a Grienke type return for a reliever. The best return for a reliever in the last 4 years might be Wilson Ramos and he was having a very poor season in AAA.

 

The best return possible might not include a top 100 prospect. Instead, it might include two guys in the top 300. I think the Twins need to do that deal. I also believe that Ryan will be blasted either way. If he trades Perkins in line with comps, it won't be near the deal expected. If he keeps him, there will be revisionist history saying he should have pulled the trigger on those top prospects he must have been offered.

 

I didn't believe a league average CF could bring a top 50 prospect starting pitcher. He pulled that deal off. Maybe he can do the same with Perkins.

 

The Rangers traded Robert Erlin and Joe Wieland for Mike Adams 2 years ago. While neither were top 50 guys, Erlin made several top 100 lists and Weiland was moving up fast.They were both advanced, young pitchers having good years. Oh, and while Adams was a good pitcher he wasn't a closer....or pitching in the American league....or pitching in a stadium that is not the most pitcher friendly in baseball.

 

Also, while Soria wasn't traded their were a ton of solid offers with top 100 prospects for him before the Royals decided not to trade him. At least those were the rumors. We all know how that turned out.

 

Will Ryan get top 100 prospects offered for Perkins? Who knows. All we know is the experts are saying that not only is the relief market weak, but a ton of teams are looking for arms.

[jorgenswest]

The Rangers traded Robert Erlin and Joe Wieland for Mike Adams 2 years ago. While neither were top 50 guys, Erlin made several top 100 lists and Weiland was moving up fast.They were both advanced, young pitchers having good years. Oh, and while Adams was a good pitcher he wasn't a closer....or pitching in the American league....or pitching in a stadium that is not the most pitcher friendly in baseball.

 

Also, while Soria wasn't traded their were a ton of solid offers with top 100 prospects for him before the Royals decided not to trade him. At least those were the rumors. We all know how that turned out.

 

Will Ryan get top 100 prospects offered for Perkins? Who knows. All we know is the experts are saying that not only is the relief market weak, but a ton of teams are looking for arms.

 

I checked baseball cube and baseball reference in this trade earlier. No citation in any year for Erlin on a top 100 list. Wieland was not on Texas top 10 list. I did see that they were ranked 7 and 8 following the trade for San Diego. That might put them in the 150-250 range. In fact, this trade was where I got my comp of two guys in the top 300.

[beckmt]

Timing is everything. All of us do not know what Perkins will bring, but you will never know if you keep saying he is not available. Somewhere is a GM who will need a closer around July 31. All we need to do is pick up the phone a listen and never say no before the offer is made. Best chance is that no offer will be enough, but you never know.

[Oxtung]

We agree on the need for prospects. The comps aren't there for many of the kinds of trades discussed on this site. It isn't reasonable to expect a Grienke type return for a reliever. The best return for a reliever in the last 4 years might be Wilson Ramos and he was having a very poor season in AAA.

 

The best return possible might not include a top 100 prospect. Instead, it might include two guys in the top 300. I think the Twins need to do that deal. I also believe that Ryan will be blasted either way. If he trades Perkins in line with comps, it won't be near the deal expected. If he keeps him, there will be revisionist history saying he should have pulled the trigger on those top prospects he must have been offered.

 

I didn't believe a league average CF could bring a top 50 prospect starting pitcher. He pulled that deal off. Maybe he can do the same with Perkins.

 

I think Perkins could bring back a top 150 prospect and potentially a top 100. Perkins' value, while a well above average relief pitcher, is driven by that contract. Much like Span. I haven't done the research on this but I doubt many of the previous reliever trades have involved the trifecta that Perkins brings; cheap, long term, talent.

 

Who is the best comp when you take into consideration the contract and the talent?

[cmb0252]

I checked baseball cube and baseball reference in this trade earlier. No citation in any year for Erlin on a top 100 list. Wieland was not on Texas top 10 list. I did see that they were ranked 7 and 8 following the trade for San Diego. That might put them in the 150-250 range. In fact, this trade was where I got my comp of two guys in the top 300.

 

You areright. I don't remember why I...well remember Erlin being a top 100 guy. I do remember, and I have checked this time, that both him and Weiland were having good seasons when traded. Once again, while Adams was a solid RP he wasn't an AL, affordable contract, closer RP like Perkins.

[cmb0252]

Soria and Perkins are a pretty good comparison IMO. Top closers, all stars, and on bad teams with financially responsible contracts. Here is an article, I couldn't look dumb twice in one night so I did my homework, which talks about how the Yankees reportedly offered Jesus Montero in an offer for Soria. At the time Montero was the #4 overall prospect according to BA:

Soria Wouldn't Block Trade To Yankees: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

And here is a quote from GM Moore on why they didn't trade Soria:

“We do expect to be good at some point in time,”

Moore said.

“And to be good, it’s important that you’re able to match up over the last three innings of the game. Joakim Soria gives us that opportunity to do that."

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Is it reasonable to expect those kind of returns?

 

The only trade last year that was close to that return was Jean Segura (#55) and Johnny Hellweg who was #4 in the Angels system. It took Grienke to get that deal.

 

I don't think a closer can get that kind of return. I found no comps for reliever trades with that type of return in the last 4 years. If the expectation on Ryan is that he can get a Grienke level return for Perkins, any trade is almost certain to disappoint.

 

If a lesser return means the best option is to keep Perkins, then he is almost certain to remain.

 

It has happened in the past, and that's especially true if several teams who really covet a closer get in a bidding war over the only one that's available.

 

That said, if it's a lesser return, I agree... he stays.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Separate note, but the MLB trade rumors indicated that Houston was looking for two top prospects for Bud Norris. I found that a bit of a surprise, as looking at the numbers, he's not that much better than KC is for us. ERA is a bit lower, K rate is higher, but his walk rate his higher too. He's under control for 2 more seasons. If Houston can get what they want for Norris, I'd think Perkins could net what we are talking about here.... Heck, KC could net 1 nice prospect.

[Major League Ready]

It's not what you wrote, it's a reasonable conclusion from what you posted though. I'm with the crowd that says you trade him if you get a good deal, which is either 2 top 100 guys or a top 50 guy and a high ceiling lower guy... I wouldn't do it just to do it though. Perk has a lot of value to the team now. My personal opinion on closers though is that these can be made. They could install Fein in that role and let him do it and trade him in a year or two as well.

 

As for the Twins 2015/16 timeframe is likely when they will be reasonably good. And for potential pen options, I suspect there are a few in the minors. Tonkin looks like he could be one of them as does Zach Jones and maybe Jose Gonzalez. There are also a few guys from the 2012 class that were very successful relievers in college that will likely return there if their attempts to start fail. Truth be told as well, this is an area that the Twins have been successful getting help with in FA.. And spending 3-4/year on a shut down relief pitcher to augment the next wave is a far more likely scenario than giving a starter 10-14M/year.

 

 

I thinked you summed it up nicely here. I can appreciate that many don't want to see one of the few players who has really performed well be traded. However, that's what it takes to build a dominant team from the position we are in right now.

[jorgenswest]

Separate note, but the MLB trade rumors indicated that Houston was looking for two top prospects for Bud Norris. I found that a bit of a surprise, as looking at the numbers, he's not that much better than KC is for us. ERA is a bit lower, K rate is higher, but his walk rate his higher too. He's under control for 2 more seasons. If Houston can get what they want for Norris, I'd think Perkins could net what we are talking about here.... Heck, KC could net 1 nice prospect.

 

I can't get past how few deadline trades net top prospects. There is always going to be rumors and speculation. Teams will always try to leak rumors to try to drive up the return.

 

However, the reality of the trade deadline has been different for at least three years. Very few trades return top prospects. The top end comp for Correia might be a C+ prospect. Maybe Norris can get a return similar to Bedard going to Boston.

 

If Ryan is able to get a Grienke return for Perkins, it will be a steal and unprecedented in the last several years for a reliever. Anyone would do that trade. There isn't need for debate. The real debate should be whether you trade Perkins in return for two guys that might range 6 to 12 in their organization or a 50-100 guy having an off year.

[Kwak]

Perkins for 1 minor leaguer hopeful = poor trade. Some of you are rubes in bargaining--"if you don't listen..."--make them call you, then you know they are interested, then the return is greater. It's called "playing hard to get", if they really want to deal--they will, as opposed to those who are just looking for a "pick".

[AlwaysinModeration]

One thought on Perkins. The fact that he has been spouting off sabermetric stats...doesn't that sort of make him persona non grata around the Twins organization? Might be a reason to think he might actually get traded.

 

Anyway, pretty amazing turnaround in a few years; from feuding with the organization over service time manipulation, to assumed to be traded for peanuts...to most valuable trading chip (or close) at the deadline--with the Twins brass apparently very resistant to the thought of trading him. Pretty big circle there.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I can't get past how few deadline trades net top prospects. There is always going to be rumors and speculation. Teams will always try to leak rumors to try to drive up the return.

 

However, the reality of the trade deadline has been different for at least three years. Very few trades return top prospects. The top end comp for Correia might be a C+ prospect. Maybe Norris can get a return similar to Bedard going to Boston.

 

If Ryan is able to get a Grienke return for Perkins, it will be a steal and unprecedented in the last several years for a reliever. Anyone would do that trade. There isn't need for debate. The real debate should be whether you trade Perkins in return for two guys that might range 6 to 12 in their organization or a 50-100 guy having an off year.

 

KC for C+ guy? Yes, I'd do it in a heart beat. C+ guys are typically higher ceiling kids at lower levels who are raw... That's exactly what you target for KC.

 

To answer your real question, I doubt personally I'd trade Perk for 50-100 guy having an off year and a 6-12 in the org... No thanks. I think TR walks away from that too.

[jorgenswest]

Perkins, Plouffe and Fien all under control with reasonable contracts and young enough to be be effective for three more years. Lots of reason to keep them. No reason to trade them for what the market usually brings.

 

The problem with trading in July is competing with a group of players that have expiring contracts or players with contracts to dump. It brings down the value of the others as teams in contention want to improve 2013 with the least impact on their farm system.

 

Span and Revere were in a similar place. While the best offer last summer might have Sulbaran for Span, the better offer came in the winter.

 

This is the time to trade Morneau and if possible Pelfrey. It is the time to trade the decline phase players like Willingham (hopefully August), Burton, Doumit and Correia.

 

Listen to offers on the others, but stick to the value they would bring in the offseason. They will likely be a better team in 2014 and 2015 by keeping them.

[TheLeviathan]

Listen to offers on the others, but stick to the value they would bring in the offseason. They will likely be a better team in 2014 and 2015 by keeping them.

 

I would suggest the one position that offseason value isn't superior to deadline value is relievers. Last year didn't see a lot of reliever movement in trades.

 

I'd speculate that part of that is the market is always flush with potential buy-low relief options and because relievers success is a but more subject to fluctuation. I'd imagine our relief pitchers are more valuable now then they will be in November.

[jorgenswest]

I would suggest the one position that offseason value isn't superior to deadline value is relievers. Last year didn't see a lot of reliever movement in trades.

 

I'd speculate that part of that is the market is always flush with potential buy-low relief options and because relievers success is a but more subject to fluctuation. I'd imagine our relief pitchers are more valuable now then they will be in November.

 

It is the same reason relievers don't get great return at the trade deadline. Every struggling team has a set up man to trade. Look at the trades for Ziegler, Mujica, Broxton and Delabar.

 

Perkins with his performance sets himself aside. His return would be better. It would also be better in the winter.

[Oxtung]

It seems most people's viewpoints on trading Perkins depend in a large part on when one perceives the Twins will be competitive. If you think the Twins compete in 2014 then it's a no brainer to hold onto Perk. 2015, only trade if the return is significant. 2016, move him for a good offer but doesn't have to be a home run. Then there seem to be one or two people that think prospects are too risky or they just are emotionally attached or they want something to watch and long term isn't as important.

[cmb0252]

It seems most people's viewpoints on trading Perkins depend in a large part on when one perceives the Twins will be competitive. If you think the Twins compete in 2014 then it's a no brainer to hold onto Perk. 2015, only trade if the return is significant. 2016, move him for a good offer but doesn't have to be a home run. Then there seem to be one or two people that think prospects are too risky or they just are emotionally attached or they want something to watch and long term isn't as important.

 

Nailed it. Couldn't agree more.