Article: Analyzing Mauer's New Power Approach Statistically

[jwestbrock]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1938-Comparing-Mauer-s-12-and-13-and-career-numbers

[Oxtung]

I appreciate the in depth analysis you did here. We had this very discussion on the forums about a week ago and I came to the same conclusion you did here. His final numbers will depend on how far his babip drops and what happens with his strike outs.

 

On a separate note, Joe was interviewed on an ESPN radio show about a month ago and was asked if he had changed his approach at the plate given his higher power and strike out rates. Joe said no, he hadn't changed his approach and he didn't know why he was suddenly hitting for more power and striking out more.

[BHtwins]

I personally think people are thinking too much about his BAPIP regressing going forward. Hitter BAPIP is never been a particularly static number anyway.

 

His BAPIP increase is completely a product of driving his GB % sharply downward this year. I think its clearly because of increased leg strength. He is particularly healthy this season, has developed the right programs to build his leg strength and they have done a decent job of mixing his positional appearances. He is elevationg the ball better because of it I think.

 

His BAPIP (GB %+) will drop of as the sason progresses but I bet its not as sharp as years past because I just think he is healthier this year with a stronger lower body.

[jwestbrock]

I could definitely see him not having changed his approach, because he is being pitched slightly differently this year. He's been seeing 3 percentage points fewer fastballs, 3 more in changeups, and everything else the same. That coupled with his legs being under him, as BHtwins said, would explain the increase in balls categorized as line drives, the increase in HR/FB rate, and would lead to a BABIP increase with harder ground balls.

 

Now his legs being better doesn't necessarily explain the swing and contact changes, but those could be a product of Mauer being pitched different. So maybe he hasn't changed his approach, pitchers are just pitching more to what he wants and because he's healthier he's taking advantage.

[Steve Lein]

BABIP, to me, is a statistic that can be maintained over a single season, it doesn't necessarily regress or progress to the mean of that player's career all the time (such is the case with any stat where "luck" can apply), thus I hate when it is used with that caveat thrown in - But I guess that's not what my comment turned into here here today...

 

Ergo -> While it's not a very good judge of things on the whole, I have this incredibly detailed (and cumbersome) spreadsheet dedicated to Joe Mauer and comparing a whole bunch of stats to other players (a lot of it dedicated to comparing him to other teams primary #3 hitters from 2012), and it's quite interesting what one can come up with messing around with all those numbers.

 

For instance, Adam Dunn, who hit .204 (110 hits) last year and struck out 222 times (34% of his PA's), drove in a higher % of ALL Total possible baserunners (including himself) than Mauer did (and Joe hit .319 (174 hits) and K'd in only 13.7% of PA's). The quick math for you on that is this:

 

Mauer: 1055 total possible baserunners, 85 RBI on the year (8.05%).

Dunn: 1028 total possible baserunners, 96 RBI on the year (9.34%).

 

You can 100% attribute that fact to Dunn hitting 41 HR's (.468 slugging) compared to Mauer's 10 (.446 slugging), but I find things like that interesting -> Dunn was a better "run producer" with a batting average of .204 than one of the best pure "hitters" in the game.

 

For further comparison's sake, Miguel Cabrera of Triple Crown winning fame, drove in 12.18% of all possible baserunners (1141 TPB, 139 RBI).

 

Of note in relation to this article, is even with a few more HR's, Mauer's TPB% I've given above is considerably lower this year, only 5.26% (and he's slugging .060 points higher too), and that likely means that his increase in K's is not a good thing in that regard - or demonstrates how bad the hitters have been in front of him. There is a -10% difference in how many PA's he's had with runners on base compared to 2012.

[snepp]

Of note in relation to this article, is even with a few more HR's, Mauer's TPB% I've given above is considerably lower this year, only 5.26% (and he's slugging .060 points higher too), and that likely means that his increase in K's is not a good thing in that regard - or demonstrates how bad the hitters have been in front of him. There is a -10% difference in how many PA's he's had with runners on base compared to 2012.

 

 

Add in that he's been uncharacteristically lousy w/RISP (~750 OPS) and in high leverage spots (~650 OPS).

[Oxtung]

Add in that he's been uncharacteristically lousy w/RISP (~750 OPS) and in high leverage spots (~650 OPS).

He also doesn't have Ben Revere's speed on base ahead of him. Revere probably scored from first more often than Dozier/Carroll have been able to on Mauer's doubles.

[Oxtung]

There is an element of luck in babip certainly and an increase in LD% will increase the odds of also increasing your babip. The reason I say that Mauer is likely to see a regression is because in the last 10 years only 15 players have finished a season with a babip >.380. Therefore the odds are stacked against his babip remaining any where near the .399 that it is right now. Couple that with his career average of .348 and his career high of .373 and the likely hood of a regression is very high. IMO the question is how large of a regression.

[drjim]

There is an element of luck in babip certainly and an increase in LD% will increase the odds of also increasing your babip. The reason I say that Mauer is likely to see a regression is because in the last 10 years only 15 players have finished a season with a babip >.380. Therefore the odds are stacked against his babip remaining any where near the .399 that it is right now. Couple that with his career average of .348 and his career high of .373 and the likely hood of a regression is very high. IMO the question is how large of a regression.

 

Would you think his k rate would also regress? Would that cancel out the expected drop in babip to maintain similar overall production?

[Oxtung]

Would you think his k rate would also regress? Would that cancel out the expected drop in babip to maintain similar overall production?

 

I think that combined those are the two largest factors in how his stats look at the end of the season. I would guess, and that's all it is, that a 20-30 point drop in babip would outweigh a 3-4% drop in K%. That would be a real interesting study IMO if anyone would care to take it on.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There is an element of luck in babip certainly and an increase in LD% will increase the odds of also increasing your babip. The reason I say that Mauer is likely to see a regression is because in the last 10 years only 15 players have finished a season with a babip >.380. Therefore the odds are stacked against his babip remaining any where near the .399 that it is right now. Couple that with his career average of .348 and his career high of .373 and the likely hood of a regression is very high. IMO the question is how large of a regression.

 

Wasn't Mauer one of those guys in 2009?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Transferring my comment from your original post:

 

Great piece. The data you have presented, while barely over the threshold of small sample size, show two things:

1)Mauer is swinging at more pitches, and

2)Mauer has shifted where he hits the ball up in the spectrum; more fly balls/line-drives at the expense of ground balls.

 

The question is whether he is changing his swing path to more of an uppercut, or swinging at more higher pitches? (Or another explanation...returned leg strength?)

 

One note...this is the first year he would have had the opportunity to work with Brunansky....maybe he's changed his approach slightly due to that?

[Oxtung]

Wasn't Mauer one of those guys in 2009?

 

No, his career high was in 2009 but it was .373.

[fairweather]

Mauer is one of those guy7s that will have a higher BABIP then most guys because he almost always hits the ball square.

[Willihammer]

I wonder if Mauer has done something to address his ground ball tendencies. Or at least, has he tailored his approach to the type of pitcher that he's facing. This could be SSS noise, but so far he is absolutely pounding ground ballers.

 

http://i.imgur.com/aGdw97n.png

 

edit: also worth noting that he's got a .500 BABIP against them but 10 doubles in 57 PAs would suggest he's just hitting them hard too.

[Boone]

I think that combined those are the two largest factors in how his stats look at the end of the season. I would guess, and that's all it is, that a 20-30 point drop in babip would outweigh a 3-4% drop in K%. That would be a real interesting study IMO if anyone would care to take it on.

 

First of all, I think you're underestimating the potential drop in strikeouts. Here are his K rates:

Career :12.2%

4/2013: 17.3%

5/2013: 25.6%

6/2013: 12.2%

2013 : 19%

 

There is a very real chance that his K% will drop 5-7%.

 

As for weighing K% and BABIP, the formula is as follows: BABIP = (H/AB - HR/AB)/(1 - K/AB - HR/AB - SF/AB), where the 1 is a result of AB/AB and H/AB is the batting average that results from the other variables. I used Mauer's 2013 HR/AB (2.89%) and 2013 SF/AB (0%). In order to calculate the expected batting average for the rest of the season I used a .365 BABIP. Here are the results:

 

If Mauer continues to strike out at a rate of 19% rate (21.7% of his ABs) and his BABIP falls to .365, then his batting average will fall to .304

If Mauer strikes out at his career rate of 12.2% (12.7% of ABs) going forward and his BABIP falls to .365, his batting average will actually rise to .333.

In other words, a drop in K rate to his career rate will outweigh a drop in BABIP of 35% points if he maintains his current HR and SF rates.

[Oxtung]

First of all, I think you're underestimating the potential drop in strikeouts. Here are his K rates:

Career :12.2%

4/2013: 17.3%

5/2013: 25.6%

6/2013: 12.2%

2013 : 19%

 

There is a very real chance that his K% will drop 5-7%.

 

As for weighing K% and BABIP, the formula is as follows: BABIP = (H/AB - HR/AB)/(1 - K/AB - HR/AB - SF/AB), where the 1 is a result of AB/AB and H/AB is the batting average that results from the other variables. I used Mauer's 2013 HR/AB (2.89%) and 2013 SF/AB (0%). In order to calculate the expected batting average for the rest of the season I used a .365 BABIP. Here are the results:

 

If Mauer continues to strike out at a rate of 19% rate (21.7% of his ABs) and his BABIP falls to .365, then his batting average will fall to .304

If Mauer strikes out at his career rate of 12.2% (12.7% of ABs) going forward and his BABIP falls to .365, his batting average will actually rise to .333.

In other words, a drop in K rate to his career rate will outweigh a drop in BABIP of 35% points if he maintains his current HR and SF rates.

 

Thanks for doing some of the math. A few questions and comments. K% and HR% are usually expressed as a function of PA's not AB's so did you use the actually K, HR and AB numbers in your math or the K%/HR% shown on Fangraphs/Bref? Are your BA's in your last paragraph season totals or from midseason to end of season totals? One thing you left out of your conclusion is that a fall in babip will also reduce his SLG percentage as well because, presumably, he won't hit as many doubles either. His HR rate would remain independent of this however since babip specifically does not include HR's.

 

I think you misunderstood my point about his strikeout rate. He could very well decrease his second half K% to 10%. Since we are almost half way through the season however that would only lower his season k% by 4.5% to 14.5%. In order to drop his season k% to his career average of 12% he would have to have a second half k% of 5%. That seems very unrealistic. So my point was that his season k% might drop 3-4% meaning his second half percentage would be 11-13% which I think is entirely possible.

[ThePuck]

He's only struck out 11 times this month over the course of 19 games. He had 18 in 23 games in April and 38 in May. Could very well be, May was just a fluke month as far as Ks go and he's back on his normal track. Of course, May was also his best month of the season, by far in BA, OBP and SLG%.

[Boone]

Thanks for doing some of the math. A few questions and comments. K% and HR% are usually expressed as a function of PA's not AB's so did you use the actually K, HR and AB numbers in your math or the K%/HR% shown on Fangraphs/Bref? Are your BA's in your last paragraph season totals or from midseason to end of season totals? One thing you left out of your conclusion is that a fall in babip will also reduce his SLG percentage as well because, presumably, he won't hit as many doubles either. His HR rate would remain independent of this however since babip specifically does not include HR's.

 

I think you misunderstood my point about his strikeout rate. He could very well decrease his second half K% to 10%. Since we are almost half way through the season however that would only lower his season k% by 4.5% to 14.5%. In order to drop his season k% to his career average of 12% he would have to have a second half k% of 5%. That seems very unrealistic. So my point was that his season k% might drop 3-4% meaning his second half percentage would be 11-13% which I think is entirely possible.

 

All of the rates were per AB not PA like on Fangraphs. Also, my calculations were for what his numbers would be like going forward. So what I was saying was that if Mauer struck out at a 12% rate for the rest of the season with a .365 BABIP during that time period, he would hit .333 for the rest of the season.

[Oxtung]

So it's been a month now and I was wondering how his K% and babip have started to play out. I think it will be interesting to track this as we go along.[TABLE=class: grid, width: 450]

[/TD]

[TD]PA

K's

K%

babip

Avg

April-June

315

60

19%

.399

.330

July

105

17

16.2%

.373

.308

[/TABLE]

 

Joe has seen an almost 3% drop in his K rate this month along with a 26 point drop in his babip leading to a 22 point drop in his batting average. Mauer still had a fantastic babip rate since the original post in June but, unfortunately, he still carried over the higher than average K%. At this point it seems his drop in babip has had more of an effect than his drop in K% on his batting average. It will be interesting to track this going forward.