Article: Twins' Rotation is Begging For Change

[Thrylos]

If you completely ignore groundball rate of course.

 

 

A quick glance at their FIP/xFIP marks tells a vastly different story of last season.

 

FIP and xFIP are flawed because they randomly assign a huge coefficient for HRs. In my book about 75% of HRs are flyballs that in a different park or in a different day with the wind blowing in would be outs. I do like xFIP more than FIP and both much more than ERA, but still they are problematic, esp. because of that arbitrary huge HR dependency...

[Thrylos]

Or he can spend the off season bitter and bewildered at why he didn't get a legitimate shot at an MLB rotation most people think he's already better than.

 

I am 150% certain that this will never happen. He is not that kind of a person. And I will leave it at that

 

 

(not that he does not deserve to be with the Twins right now, because he does.)

[jokin]

He'll get it from me. When we started having this discussion about Gibson at the start of May he clearly wasn't ready - good start alternating with bad start. The Twins were right to keep him in Rochester.

 

Now he's ready, and so is Albers. I'd welcome them both in the rotation in place of Diamond and Pelfrey.

 

7 of 9 starts is well beyond "consistent". Few starting pitchers at any level can demonstrate this ratio of success.

 

Again, his 2nd start in May was the turning point. 9 inning shutout. 3rd start in May was a clinker. 4th start, near no-hitter, complete game shutout. 4th start, 8 inning shutout. That 4th start was just about one month ago to the day. It was pretty clear that the alternating pattern of good/bad was broken. Now it was: 3 lights out outings w/1 bad.

 

Here's Gibson's line in his last 9 starts (which includes the above numbers): 2.36 ERA/ 7.67 K*9/1.25 WHIP. He's essentially spinning his wheels at this point.

 

This from a guy who was a prospective starting rotation member in Spring Training who was on an innings limitation, and the Twins had set the conditional outcome in that they were looking for the turnaround consistent with a guy safely beyond his TJ-recovery rustiness to assure them that he was now reliable enough to insert into the rotation.

 

He's been more than ready for a month now and has lost a month's worth of potential major league developmental innings in the process.

[jokin]

Then we can wait until after the Super Two date next year and bring him up then.

 

....So that he can struggle getting big league acclimated one year from now, instead of today..... Gibson's agent undoubtedly already has his grievance filing written up, ready for submission.....

[twinsnorth49]

I am 150% certain that this will never happen. He is not that kind of a person. And I will leave it at that

 

 

(not that he does not deserve to be with the Twins right now, because he does.)

 

Well that makes me feel a lot better about the situation then....

[ThePuck]

FIP and xFIP are flawed because they randomly assign a huge coefficient for HRs. In my book about 75% of HRs are flyballs that in a different park or in a different day with the wind blowing in would be outs. I do like xFIP more than FIP and both much more than ERA, but still they are problematic, esp. because of that arbitrary huge HR dependency...

 

Why do you think it's random? You don't think they had a reason for having the number they did? HR are a guaranteed run scored while HBP, walks, etc are not. Shouldn't HR be weighted quite a bit more since it's a guaranteed run scored and shouldn't strikeouts be weighted more in the opposite direction as well, since that guy definitely isn't scoring?

 

In then end, it's a pretty darn good player evaluation tool. Here's a good quote:

 

When FIP doesn't work: The one thing FIP can't tell you is how many runs the other team scored. So it is a nice tool for player evaluation, but the one thing it doesn't measure is the one thing the team cares about most — whether runs were actually prevented. Fairly or unfairly, Javier Vazquez disappointed a lot of fans in New York and the Bronx. A lot of runs scored on his watch, whether they were his own fault or the fault of something like Derek Jeter's poor range at shortstop.

 

Still, FIP is a great tool to have. It's a version of ERA that tells you how well a pitcher actually pitched, rather than how well his team did. There are always more complicated measures of a pitcher's exact contributions on the mound, but certainly none as simple.

 

Everything you always wanted to know about: FIP - Big League Stew - MLB*Blog - Yahoo! Sports

[jokin]

If there were enough innings left for him to work through the initial bombing, I'd be all for it. I'd have been all for having him up since day 1. At this point, it's clear from watching his inconsistency at AAA that this year is not going to be a smooth one.

 

They won't bring him up to replace Diamond in his next slot, since that would require him Making his MLB Debut in an NL park. Then his MLB debut will be vs the Yankees? Probably not.

 

The inconsistency myth has now officially become The Big Lie.

 

I've never seen an organization and its legion of lock-step supporters more willing to baby and coddle a clearly more-than-capable-and-ready MAN, he is not a wet-behind-the-ears 19 year old prospect, gee whiz, the guy's almost 26!

[jokin]

A lot of people are assuming that the manager or another Twins official hasn't spoken to him about what to expect.

 

It's very possible they haven't... But it's also very possible that they have.

 

The public quote about Albers being possibly the next Rochester promotion from Terry Ryan had to be encouraging.

[jokin]

It absolutely matters. There's a huge difference between being passed over for a promotion and ignored entirely versus being passed over for a promotion while being told "this is our reasoning for doing this right now and you'll get the promotion soon".

 

Both are disappointing but one gives hope for the near future.

 

I bet the Albers comment gave Gibson lots of hope for the near future.

[jokin]

Gibson simply has not been consistent. Sure, he's got 3 really great starts in his past 10. On May 8, he threw a shutout. his next start: 3 IP 7 hits and a walk. May 19th, another shutout. Followed that with 8 innings of no run ball. May 30th? 6 Innings 8 hits, two walks and 6 runs. June has been uninspiring. 26 IP, 22 Hits and 9 Walks. The only reason he didn't give up more runs in that span is the teams he was facing are averaging 4.2 Runs per game. These three teams all have TEAM OPS of .716,.715, and .713. Overall, nobody can hit in the IL, but these are some of the worst hitting teams in the league.

 

If Gibson were really demanding to come up, these teams would all be getting shut out by him. Instead he's giving up all sorts of hits, throwing tons of pitches and only lasting 6 innings. I see no pressing reason to expose him to the bigs right now.

 

Actually it's 3 really great starts in the last 9, not 10. And having the second best FIP of 2.96 in the International League is pedestrian, certainly no "pressing need to expose" the poor baby to the oh-so-scary next level of competition.

 

And yes, those June numbers of 2.08 ERA, with a 1.19 WHIP and 6.92 K/9 while only gong 6 or 7 innings, including one game each of 0, 1, 2, and 3 runs scored disaqualify Gibson from promotion. Let's wait until he throws back-to-back perfect game no-hitters before we're finally convinced that he's "consistent" enough....

[BoBo71]

In his past nine starts at Rochester, Kyle Gibson is 6-1 with a 2.36 ERA. In that span, he's logged 61 innings pitched (a horse), given up a mere 46 hits, and struck out 54. There's no sane reason why he is still in Rochester, this being his FOURTH year there. Yet, I'd much rather see him replace Pelfrey, who has never been good, than Diamond, who was brilliant last year. If Diamond doesn't come out of this funk and needs to be replaced, do so with the similar Andrew Albers, who also deserves a shot up here. But Gibson should be the ace of this staff.

[BoBo71]

If there were enough innings left for him to work through the initial bombing, I'd be all for it. I'd have been all for having him up since day 1. At this point, it's clear from watching his inconsistency at AAA that this year is not going to be a smooth one.

 

They won't bring him up to replace Diamond in his next slot, since that would require him Making his MLB Debut in an NL park. Then his MLB debut will be vs the Yankees? Probably not.

That would be two more starts at AAA. Let's say he's lights out and goes 17 innings in those two starts. That puts him at 110 innings. 50 to go to that 160 number. 8 starts or so, considering he probably won't be given much chance to go 7 or 8 in any of them. That means he'd face: The Blue Jays, the Rays and then the all star break. After the break: the Angels, Mariners, Astros, White Sox, Cleveland, and the White Sox again. These are all pretty light hitting teams right now, apart maybe for CLE. I can see the argument for him succeeding. if he fails against that assortment of lesser teams, there will be a lot of confidence needing to be rebuilt. (I know there's irony in skipping the Yankees who are one of the lowest scoring groups in the bunch, but Twins / Yankees, never pretty.)

 

I would think that if you wanted to give him a 'cup of coffee' then bring him up for that double header against The Sox on August 9th. He might get rocked or he might do well either way it's only one game, not enough to shake any confidence and certainly enough to whet the appetite. Odds are if he stays at AAA through then he'll be darn close to his innings limit anyway. He can come up, give it a go and then get to the offseason dreaming of tasting it again.

 

First of all, what "innings limit"? You've just assumed he'll be shut out at a certain number. I've heard nothing. Have you? He's almost 26 and dying to pitch. If he feels good, I think they'll let him go.

 

Also, you mention elsewhere that he gives up "all these hits." What? Do you even FOLLOW Gibson? Or are you the guy that simply hates him because he stole your girlfriend. Gibson's numbers over the past nine games are almost eye-popping. He's 6-1 with a 2.36 ERA. In 61 innings pitched, he's given up ONLY 46 hits, while striking out 54. Even if you added a full run-and-a-half at the MLB level (which I think is a complete stretch with a guy of this talent), you'd be talking about a 3.85 ERA up here--almost HALF what Pelfrey's is at present. In fact, I'll bet Mike Pelfrey couldn't get his ERA under 5.00 at AAA, let alone 3.00.

 

So, you're absolutely wrong about Gibson. If he were called up now, he'd ride that momentum to MLB success. If he isn't called up soon, you risk burning him out at AAA like Terry Ryan has done with so many other players through the years.

 

It's time. We couldn't have asked for anything more than Gibson while getting any less from Pelfrey. That's the truth.