Article: Twins' Rotation is Begging For Change

[jerickasdad34]

How many starts does he get? He had a flukish good year last year, that doesn't mean he will continue to have good years. His past is more indicative of his results this year than last. He's had 13 starts, when is it time to jump off the wagon?

So 13 starts mean more than 30? Doesnt make much sense there....besides what are we in a rush for? You think this year we are gonna contend? Unlike worley who wasnt showing anything, atleast diamond shows some hints of last yr, he just cant finish off his starts....They need to see if diamond can ride this out and regain last years stuff.

[LoganJones]

Gibson simply has not been consistent. Sure, he's got 3 really great starts in his past 10. On May 8, he threw a shutout. his next start: 3 IP 7 hits and a walk. May 19th, another shutout. Followed that with 8 innings of no run ball. May 30th? 6 Innings 8 hits, two walks and 6 runs. June has been uninspiring. 26 IP, 22 Hits and 9 Walks. The only reason he didn't give up more runs in that span is the teams he was facing are averaging 4.2 Runs per game. These three teams all have TEAM OPS of .716,.715, and .713. Overall, nobody can hit in the IL, but these are some of the worst hitting teams in the league.

 

If Gibson were really demanding to come up, these teams would all be getting shut out by him. Instead he's giving up all sorts of hits, throwing tons of pitches and only lasting 6 innings. I see no pressing reason to expose him to the bigs right now.

[Brad Swanson]

Gibson simply has not been consistent. Sure, he's got 3 really great starts in his past 10. On May 8, he threw a shutout. his next start: 3 IP 7 hits and a walk. May 19th, another shutout. Followed that with 8 innings of no run ball. May 30th? 6 Innings 8 hits, two walks and 6 runs. June has been uninspiring. 26 IP, 22 Hits and 9 Walks. The only reason he didn't give up more runs in that span is the teams he was facing are averaging 4.2 Runs per game. These three teams all have TEAM OPS of .716,.715, and .713. Overall, nobody can hit in the IL, but these are some of the worst hitting teams in the league.

 

If Gibson were really demanding to come up, these teams would all be getting shut out by him. Instead he's giving up all sorts of hits, throwing tons of pitches and only lasting 6 innings. I see no pressing reason to expose him to the bigs right now.

 

That works out to a 1.19 WHIP, which would lead the Twins. Also, in June, he has pitched seven innings twice and six innings twice. If you're waiting for him to be perfect before his callup, you're going to be waiting forever.

[Brad Swanson]

So 13 starts mean more than 30? Doesnt make much sense there....besides what are we in a rush for? You think this year we are gonna contend? Unlike worley who wasnt showing anything, atleast diamond shows some hints of last yr, he just cant finish off his starts....They need to see if diamond can ride this out and regain last years stuff.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with this regarding Diamond, but Worley was just as good, if not better than Diamond back in 2011, and he's younger.

[Brad Swanson]

What I have noticed about Diamond is that most of his starts go well for 4-5 innings, but he runs into a lot of trouble in innings 6 and 7...id honeslty lime to know his splits for those innings....hes 26, he has some success in the past, id give him a pass right now so i wont be jumping off the wagon just yet

 

1st, 5th and 6th:

 

Scott Diamond 2013 Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

[jerickasdad34]

1st, 5th and 6th:

 

Scott Diamond 2013 Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

Thanks for the link, yeah guess its 5 and 6th mostly with some on the first

[chuchadoro]

It absolutely matters. There's a huge difference between being passed over for a promotion and ignored entirely versus being passed over for a promotion while being told "this is our reasoning for doing this right now and you'll get the promotion soon".

 

Both are disappointing but one gives hope for the near future.

 

What reasoning could be given in this hypothetical conversation?

 

1. Gibby, you've been pitching really well the past six weeks but we need to see you do it at AAA a little longer. Keep it up and you might get to make a few starts with the big club.

 

2. Gibby, you've been pitching well lately but there just isn't a spot in the rotation right now. The guys up here are pitching too well to take out and are important members of the club's present and future.

 

3. You're doing great, kid, but we're a bunch of cheap d**ks and want to delay your service time as long as possible. TS, bro.

 

4. Derp derp "Gibson-ly" starts blah blah "Gibson-ish" attitude derp high levels of "Gibson-icity".

 

Anyone have other possible explanations? #4 is the only one that holds any water IMO.

[LoganJones]

Two outing of 6 innings and two of 7 innings is not a guy kicking on the door to the bigs. It's a guy who's struggling to keep his pitch counts in order against poor hitting teams. I'm not waiting for him to be perfect, I'm waiting for him to be dominant over more than one or two games. Else, might as well wait until next year, since they're gonna have to shut him down in 60 or so innings anyway.

[jerickasdad34]

I don't necessarily disagree with this regarding Diamond, but Worley was just as good, if not better than Diamond back in 2011, and he's younger.

 

True, but worley put up his numbers in the national league where diamond did it in the american...plus worley is gettin pounded in AAA anyway not really pounding on the door to come back

[Brock Beauchamp]

Two outing of 6 innings and two of 7 innings is not a guy kicking on the door to the bigs. It's a guy who's struggling to keep his pitch counts in order against poor hitting teams. I'm not waiting for him to be perfect, I'm waiting for him to be dominant over more than one or two games. Else, might as well wait until next year, since they're gonna have to shut him down in 60 or so innings anyway.

 

You've looked at the Twins' rotation, right? There is simply no reason to block Gibson getting a taste of MLB hitting at this point. He's the future of this team and should get his version of a "cup of coffee" before he's shut down.

 

Gibson has been very good against AAA hitting in the past 6-8 weeks. No, he hasn't been perfect. No one is arguing that... but he has been good enough to warrant a call-up, especially when the MLB roster is manned by guys like Mike Pelfrey.

[jerickasdad34]

Two outing of 6 innings and two of 7 innings is not a guy kicking on the door to the bigs. It's a guy who's struggling to keep his pitch counts in order against poor hitting teams. I'm not waiting for him to be perfect, I'm waiting for him to be dominant over more than one or two games. Else, might as well wait until next year, since they're gonna have to shut him down in 60 or so innings anyway.

Dont you want him to get some big league experience this year before hes shut down rather then let him learn early next year when we have a better shot at contending (better shot, not neccesarily sqying we will)

Experience can help a young pitcher, ala liriano in 05 when he got rocked in sept but it helped him dominate in 06

[LoganJones]

Gibson won't fix what ails the rotation on his own, so what is the point of bringing him up to get bombed for two or three starts? That way he can spend his offseason thinking that he might not be good enough for the bigs? Nah. He's obviously still struggling with stamina and command after the recovery. Let him work that out, and spend the offseason hungry to be a big leaguer, dreaming about breaking 2014 with the big club.

[ThePuck]

Gibson won't fix what ails the rotation on his own, so what is the point of bringing him up to get bombed for two or three starts? That way he can spend his offseason thinking that he might not be good enough for the bigs? Nah. He's obviously still struggling with stamina and command after the recovery. Let him work that out, and spend the offseason hungry to be a big leaguer, dreaming about breaking 2014 with the big club.

 

Then we can wait until after the Super Two date next year and bring him up then.

[LoganJones]

Then we can wait until after the Super Two date next year and bring him up then.

No way. He'll be part of the plan for next year's rotation, unless his last 60 innings are terrible.

[Rick Niedermann]

I'm not ready to give up on Diamond yet. It's the 3rd time thru the order that he needs to change things up a little. As far as Gibson, it won't be long. I think Terry Ryan is already starting to field offers on Pelfrey from some of the contenders. When he is traded, and he will be, we will get our first look at Gibson with Albers coming up when Gibson hits his innings limit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gibson won't fix what ails the rotation on his own, so what is the point of bringing him up to get bombed for two or three starts?.

I think it's a big reach to definitively say he would get bombed in the majors -- such a result is probably a slim chance, maybe 10%. He also probably won't dominate -- again, another 10% chance. Most likely, he will be a little inconsistent and still working towards his peak potential, but that would be true if he was up a month ago, and it will still be true if he doesn't debut until 2014.

 

And a guy can post decent MLB results within those parameters too. We've already seen Correia, Walters, and Deduno have good results so far this season despite worse pedigrees, some inconsistency, poor rate stats, etc., so I think Gibson could stand a reasonable chance of doing the same.

[troyhobbs]

Terry Ryan has an alias... it's Logan Jones

[ThePuck]

No way. He'll be part of the plan for next year's rotation, unless his last 60 innings are terrible.

 

yeah, I wasn't being serious...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gibson won't fix what ails the rotation on his own, so what is the point of bringing him up to get bombed for two or three starts? That way he can spend his offseason thinking that he might not be good enough for the bigs?

 

You can make that argument for every prospect called up to a bad team in the history of baseball.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Gibson won't fix what ails the rotation on his own, so what is the point of bringing him up to get bombed for two or three starts? ...

 

To get MLB experience. Maybe to get hammered a couple of times. Learn what works in the bigs and what he needs to work on.

That would be a good thing.

 

I'd rather he did that in a lost season than a year (2014) where the Twins maybe have a serious chance to break .500.

[cmathewson]

No way. He'll be part of the plan for next year's rotation, unless his last 60 innings are terrible.

 

What, did you kill a relative in battle? He's the best Twins pitching prospect since Garza, maybe even better than Garza. He's better, right now, than four fifths of the rotation. The odds against your hypotheticals are pretty long.

[LoganJones]

If there were enough innings left for him to work through the initial bombing, I'd be all for it. I'd have been all for having him up since day 1. At this point, it's clear from watching his inconsistency at AAA that this year is not going to be a smooth one.

 

They won't bring him up to replace Diamond in his next slot, since that would require him Making his MLB Debut in an NL park. Then his MLB debut will be vs the Yankees? Probably not.

That would be two more starts at AAA. Let's say he's lights out and goes 17 innings in those two starts. That puts him at 110 innings. 50 to go to that 160 number. 8 starts or so, considering he probably won't be given much chance to go 7 or 8 in any of them. That means he'd face: The Blue Jays, the Rays and then the all star break. After the break: the Angels, Mariners, Astros, White Sox, Cleveland, and the White Sox again. These are all pretty light hitting teams right now, apart maybe for CLE. I can see the argument for him succeeding. if he fails against that assortment of lesser teams, there will be a lot of confidence needing to be rebuilt. (I know there's irony in skipping the Yankees who are one of the lowest scoring groups in the bunch, but Twins / Yankees, never pretty.)

 

I would think that if you wanted to give him a 'cup of coffee' then bring him up for that double header against The Sox on August 9th. He might get rocked or he might do well either way it's only one game, not enough to shake any confidence and certainly enough to whet the appetite. Odds are if he stays at AAA through then he'll be darn close to his innings limit anyway. He can come up, give it a go and then get to the offseason dreaming of tasting it again.

[LoganJones]

What, did you kill a relative in battle? He's the best Twins pitching prospect since Garza, maybe even better than Garza. He's better, right now, than four fifths of the rotation. The odds against your hypotheticals are pretty long.

 

I'm not sure you read my comment correctly. I was saying there would be no way they'd keep Gibson in the minors to start next year, unless he finished 2013 with a huge flop. Like a 60 inning slog or something.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Brilliant? Maybe.

 

Ahh... but Consistent? 7 of his last 8 starts ranging from: "very good" to "lights out" clearly doesn't meet that particular standard so publicly set by Twins management as "the reason" for keeping Gibson down.

 

Gibson will now be around 100 IP in AAA after his next start, and within 4 months of his 26th birthday. The only thing that makes anything close to sense at this point is that the Twins are looking to maximize current SP potential values by showcasing them through the deadline, in anticipation of a trade.

 

With now only around 5-6 major league starts left available to Gibson, the FO may as well start thinking about what new excuses they'll be using to keep him down in Rochester in 2014 in order to keep the arb clock from ticking.

 

What kind of message does trading Gibson send? When your team needs young, high caliber, pitching, trading young high caliber pitching doesn't make sense. Not that TR always makes sense, unless there's something wrong with Gibson. What kind of return does Gibson bring when every GM that may be a trading partner asks, "The Twins need pitching a year or two from now, why would they trade a close to major league ready pitcher who Ks alot unless there was a problem?"

[ThePuck]

What kind of message does trading Gibson send? When your team needs young, high caliber, pitching, trading young high caliber pitching doesn't make sense. Not that TR always makes sense, unless there's something wrong with Gibson. What kind of return does Gibson bring when every GM that may be a trading partner asks, "The Twins need pitching a year or two from now, why would they trade a close to major league ready pitcher who Ks alot unless there was a problem?"

 

He didn't say anything about trading Gibson

[Nick Nelson]

I'm not ready to give up on Diamond yet.

I'm not ready to give up on him yet either. I still have higher hopes for him than any of the other contact-heavy starters in the Twins' mix, because he has shown the ability to produce elite GB and BB rates.

 

But his performance right now isn't simply a matter of bad luck. He's pitching terribly. He's peripherals are awful. I have hope for him as a solid mid/bottom rotation guy going forward IF he pitches like he did last year, but currently he's pitching like the bad version of Nick Blackburn. I've got to imagine something is wrong mechanically or health-wise, and he shouldn't be in the MLB rotation while that's the case. Hopefully they can get him turned around eventually.

[orangevening]

He didn't say anything about trading Gibson

 

Thank you, I was ready to say "dude...chill"

[Thrylos]

He was far and away the best starter on Minnesota's staff in 2012,

 

The above misconception and perpetuation of it, including by the likes of DickNBert who called him "the Twins' Ace" propagates the adoring of a number five pitcher at best.

 

For the record, if you look at the peripherals (and not W-L and ERA) Cole DeVries was better than Diamond last season. In 2012 Diamond had a career year. Now he is regressing to the 2011 Diamond (more like cubic zirconia) Nothing new.

 

Lesson learned: Just hope that nobody out there thinks that Correia a. is anything close to an "Ace" and b. wants him to stay past the trading deadline.

 

Before the season started, I was very optimistic for the Twins compared to most people, but I was seeing Diamond as the number 5 pitcher and I was hoping both Gibson and Harden pitching for the Twins. I even went as far as saying that the "Twins will do as well as Harden does", which is pretty much the case.

 

Diamond? Too much ado for a number five. Replacement level.

[snepp]

For the record, if you look at the peripherals (and not W-L and ERA) Cole DeVries was better than Diamond last season.

 

If you completely ignore groundball rate of course.

 

 

A quick glance at their FIP/xFIP marks tells a vastly different story of last season.

[twinsnorth49]

 

 

At this point, it's clear from watching his inconsistency at AAA that this year is not going to be a smooth one.

 

It's clear you haven't watched lately.

 

Then his MLB debut will be vs the Yankees? Probably not.

Why not, what if he did well?

 

After the break: the Angels, Mariners, Astros, White Sox, Cleveland, and the White Sox again. These are all pretty light hitting teams right now, apart maybe for CLE. I can see the argument for him succeeding. if he fails against that assortment of lesser teams, there will be a lot of confidence needing to be rebuilt.

 

They're still major league teams, I don't think he's going to suffer untold emotional damage from a little bit of adversity. Why don't we just go with the succeeding arguement, it makes far more sense.

 

I would think that if you wanted to give him a 'cup of coffee' then bring him up for that double header against The Sox on August 9th. He might get rocked or he might do well either way it's only one game, not enough to shake any confidence and certainly enough to whet the appetite. Odds are if he stays at AAA through then he'll be darn close to his innings limit anyway.

Or he can spend the off season bitter and bewildered at why he didn't get a legitimate shot at an MLB rotation most people think he's already better than.