Twins not looking to trade Correia

[Parker Hageman]

Prior to Thursday's day game against the Chicago White Sox, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony spoke candidly with reporters regarding the upcoming trade deadline. Antony noted that the team was indeed fielding calls from teams seeking a trading partner. He also told reporters that the team was not looking to deal starting pitcher Kevin Correia, says the Associated Press's Dave Campbell.

 

Correia, who signed a two-year deal worth $10M in December, has pitched well for the team through his first 14 starts, even if it has been blessed by the baseball gods. His 3.87 ERA is outperforming his 4.08 xFIP, indicating that his numbers may turn on him as the season progresses. But his season may not follow those predictions -- over his last three starts, he's struck out 6 or more hitters while registering a 10% swinging strike rate. Prior to that he has struck out just 29 in 70.1 innings while achieving a swinging strike rate of 6%. That said, Correia has allowed 11 home runs in his past seven starts and his value may never be higher than now.

 

Correia will be 33 in August and due $5.5 million in 2014. Without much certainty for next year's rotation, Correia could provide inexpensive veteran presence (a bird-in-the-hand, if you will). Of course, missing the opportunity to move him now would be yet another example of the organization's poor timing when it comes to trading at optimal value.

[IdahoPilgrim]

My guess is it comes down to what is offered. Trading away both Span and Revere show that they'll pull the trigger if they think what they are getting in return justifies it (of course, we can always debate whether it was a good trade or not afterward).

[ThePuck]

Prior to Thursday's day game against the Chicago White Sox, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony spoke candidly with reporters regarding the upcoming trade deadline. Antony noted that the team was indeed fielding calls from teams seeking a trading partner. He also told reporters that the team was not looking to deal starting pitcher Kevin Correia, says the Associated Press's Dave Campbell.

 

Correia, who signed a two-year deal worth $10M in December, has pitched well for the team through his first 14 starts, even if it has been blessed by the baseball gods. His 3.87 ERA is outperforming his 4.08 xFIP, indicating that his numbers may turn on him as the season progresses. But his season may not follow those predictions -- over his last three starts, he's struck out 6 or more hitters while registering a 10% swinging strike rate. Prior to that he has struck out just 29 in 70.1 innings while achieving a swinging strike rate of 6%. That said, Correia has allowed 11 home runs in his past seven starts and his value may never be higher than now.

 

Correia will be 33 in August and due $5.5 million in 2014. Without much certainty for next year's rotation, Correia could provide inexpensive veteran presence (a bird-in-the-hand, if you will). Of course, missing the opportunity to move him now would be yet another example of the organization's poor timing when it comes to trading at optimal value.

 

Do you prefer xFIP to FIP?

[howieramone1406390264]

I see Correia as probably our #1 starter next season. It's one of the toughest jobs in baseball and I sure don't want to hand the ball to a rookie. Let Gibson, Meyer etc. continue their development without the added pressure of facing the other team's ace every time out.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I see Correia as probably our #1 starter next season. It's one of the toughest jobs in baseball and I sure don't want to hand the ball to a rookie. Let Gibson, Meyer etc. continue their development without the added pressure of facing the other teams ace every time out.

 

Except for the first 2 weeks or so it won't matter. Off days, rotation adjustments, etc. will mix the schedules up so that their #1 won't face our #1 any more than he would our #2, #3, etc.

[snepp]

without the added pressure of facing the other team's ace every time out.

 

How often do you think #1's actually face off after the first week of games?

[snepp]

The punch, I've been beaten to it.

[howieramone1406390264]

How often do you think #1's actually face off after the first week of games?

 

A lot. Surely someone on the board can provide a statistic to show my concern is entirely unfounded.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How often do you think #1's actually face off after the first week of games?

 

Sometimes, it happens for an entire extra week.

[PseudoSABR]

Of course, missing the opportunity to move him now would be yet another example of the organization's poor timing when it comes to trading at optimal value.

This has been my biggest grievance with the Twins for the past decade or so.

[chopper0080]

The Twins saying they are "not looking to deal starting pitcher Kevin Correia" at 32 years old is basically code for "you better make us a good offer" IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

Remember last year when someone from the twins was mad that reporters asked about Willingham? He said they were not a farm system for other teams......how is that one working out? That said......I think a veteran to talk to would help gibson and other young pitchers, if they ever come up.

[IdahoPilgrim]

The Twins saying they are "not looking to deal starting pitcher Kevin Correia" at 32 years old is basically code for "you better make us a good offer" IMO.

 

I concur. Nobody wants to start a negotiation by saying "we want to sell this guy, so what will you offer us?"

[DaveW]

If Correia can keep this up there is no reason to dump him for nothing.

[Seth Stohs]

He also told reporters that the team was not looking to deal starting pitcher Kevin Correia, says the Associated Press's Dave Campbell.

 

This is absolutely what he should be saying out loud!

[DaveW]

His 3.87 ERA is outperforming his 4.08 xFIP,

 

That is only .20 of a difference, it's not really a huge cause of concern IMO.

 

It's not like his ERA is 3.87 and his xFIP is 5.50+

[ThePuck]

That is only .20 of a difference, it's not really a huge cause of concern IMO.

 

It's not like his ERA is 3.87 and his xFIP is 5.50+

 

But his FIP is 4.68. I'm kind of wondering why some people like the xFIP more than FIP.

[Tibs]

If he keeps performing like he is now, I don't see a problem in keeping him. Maybe the Twins actually made a good signing with him last offseason, but the jury is still out on that.

[Parker Hageman]

But his FIP is 4.68. I'm kind of wondering why some people like the xFIP more than FIP.

 

I debate sometimes whether to use xFIP or FIP. For those unfamiliar, xFIP normalizes the HR rate so that it does not punish pitchers in overly hitter-friendly parks (Yankee) or reward them for extreme pitcher parks (Petco). In Correia's case, he's given up tons of home runs and at Target Field which skews to the pitcher's side. His FIP, which you cited, is more of an accurate representation of his season versus the "expected" FIP.

[ThePuck]

I debate sometimes whether to use xFIP or FIP. For those unfamiliar, xFIP normalizes the HR rate so that it does not punish pitchers in overly hitter-friendly parks (Yankee) or reward them for extreme pitcher parks (Petco). In Correia's case, he's given up tons of home runs and at Target Field which skews to the pitcher's side. His FIP, which you cited, is more of an accurate representation of his season versus the "expected" FIP.

 

Okay, so it's not just me. Good to know. :-)

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

This isn't surprising at all. Why would the Twins trade their only reliable starter this season? Teams aren't going to suddenly give up so much more value for Kevin Correia than they would have in other years at the trade deadline. He's got enough of a career history to indicate what he is. The Twins should be looking to trade one or two of Doumit, Hammer, and Morneau. Still reluctant on Morneau, but would love to see Colabello get a chance to start.

[ashbury]

Trading away both Span and Revere show that they'll pull the trigger if they think what they are getting in return justifies it

 

I think what is shows is that a perception of excess at a position is required for a value-for-value deal to occur. Pitching for the Twins 2013 edition does not qualify.

 

Of course if someone knocks Terry Ryan over with an overweighted deal, no player is untouchable.

[johnnydakota]

I see Correia as probably our #1 starter next season. It's one of the toughest jobs in baseball and I sure don't want to hand the ball to a rookie. Let Gibson, Meyer etc. continue their development without the added pressure of facing the other team's ace every time out.

With different off days The Ace seldom matchup say 20/25% of the time against other teams Ace....

[cmathewson]

I agree with Seth, If he's naming specific players he is looking to deal publicly, it does no one any good, except the team we deal him to. This was one of the things that bugged me about BS: Naming Span as a player he was shopping.

 

Also, the delta between Correia's ERA and FIP is small enough, it is not predictive.

[cmathewson]

This isn't surprising at all. Why would the Twins trade their only reliable starter this season? Teams aren't going to suddenly give up so much more value for Kevin Correia than they would have in other years at the trade deadline. He's got enough of a career history to indicate what he is. The Twins should be looking to trade one or two of Doumit, Hammer, and Morneau. Still reluctant on Morneau, but would love to see Colabello get a chance to start.

 

Why would they trade Doumit? He's good, versatile and cheap.

[Guest USAFChief]

His FIP, which you cited, is more of an accurate representation of his season versus the "expected" FIP.

And neither are as representative of his season (to date) as his ERA.

 

What happened, happened...not one one theory thinks "should have" happened.

 

If you want to say his FIP and/or xFIP are more likely to represent the future, you might have an argument.

[DaveW]

Trading Doumit now would be a huge mistake, he's not bringing back anything of value, and it's highly likely that his value is maxed out on this twins team (with a catcher like Mauer who needs more DH days then your normal catcher)

[DaveW]

And neither are as representative of his season (to date) as his ERA.

 

What happened, happened...not one one theory thinks "should have" happened.

 

If you want to say his FIP and/or xFIP are more likely to represent the future, you might have an argument.

Yup!

 

Correia has more or less been out poor mans "healthy Pavano" for half the price. Until we have 5 obvious starters better than him, no need to dump him unless someone overpays for him.

 

Also healthy Pavano was a damn nice asset for this team

[Kwak]

Discussion about which metric to use for Corriea completely misses the obvious--he is the poster-boy for Ryan's offseason plan to acquire "value-veterans" for the rotation. "Prospects" (the mother's milk of TD posters), Ryan just drafted a bunch of them. There is no need to trade a succeeding SP who would never be prized by the rest of MLB to part with a "top prospect" to acquire.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think anyone reasonably expects to get a top prospect for KC, so stop dreaming of KC to Baltimore for Dylan Bundy and Dr. James Andrews... But if you want to talk about selling high, KC's value is probably about as high as it gets. He's on contract for one more season, but the reality is that he won't be a key cog in the next wave. If someone wants to trade a B prospect for him, I think Ryan pulls the trigger. He'd be silly not to.