When the window's open........

[drjim]

This is why last offseason was so frustrating. Hey, I understand the reasoning to not pursue Anibal Sanchez or Edwin Jackson. The Twins were a long way from competitive and they could spend $30m+ to waste 2-3 years of those players' prime years.

 

But that doesn't mean you don't spend any money.

 

And when this team is competitive again, they damned well better open that checkbook. There's simply no reason not to do it.

 

I agree with the premise of "strong farm equals strong franchise". I don't believe in going for broke most of the time and rolling the dice on a single season. On the other hand, if you're not going to trade away prospects, you damned well better buy from free agents, especially if you have the money to do it.

 

 

And the Twins have the money to do it.

 

OK, if they don't pursue Sanchez or Jackson who is actually left from the free agent market from last offseason? How can you take the position of not signing the top guys but instead sign some other mythical alternatives?

 

Correia and Pelfrey are obviously nothing great but that was the next tier that you just advocated they sign from. They did commit $14.5 mil total to free agents after $35 mil the previous offseason.

[drjim]

I never claimed that, I claimed, and always have, that you need to use all the channels, not just one or two of the channels, to acquire talent.

 

Like, Cliff Lee, or Alex Rodriguez, or Melky Cabrera, or AJ Przzaldknfoneski, or Matt Holiday, or Kyle Lohse or Manny Ramirez....WS winners are peppered with guys those teams did not draft.

 

Look at TX, with Darvish and Nathan and AJ.....

 

I don't usually make extreme arguments, I do make one.....you are less likely to win if you ignore FA and trades.

 

The opening day roster had 11 home grown players, 9 free agents, 3 guys via trade and 2 waiver claims.

 

They use all methods.

[drjim]

I can't disagree but the difference has been that those GM's have kept their jobs and succeeded because they adapted or instigated the changing landscape of baseball. Terry Ryan is still as stubbornly conservative as ever and seems aghast that anyone would imply the game has evolved.

 

He refuses to recognize the value of pitchers, and he refuses to recognize the best attributes for pitchers in today's baseball involve missing bats. He stubbornly fields what is reported to be an extremely bare-bones statistical team and relies on what seems like a large scouting department. You can have both strong scouting and strong analytics, you don't have to choose one or the other. His roster management is suspect in terms of who gets promoted/demoted/DFA'd. Does anyone truely believe that Kyle Gibson would still be in AAA if one of those other GM's was in charge? Not me.

 

If something stops working you need to change your approach. I'll acknowledge I don't know what is going on behind the scenes but it doesn't appear that a lot is changing. It often seems like they are just gearing up to take the same old approach. Baseball today is different than baseball 10 years ago, you need to adjust.

 

Terry Ryan doesn't care about pitching or guys who miss bats?

 

You are aware he traded two starting caliber CFs last offseason for those types of guys right?

[drjim]

what the As have accomplished based on the payroll they have been forced to have has been absolutely amazing, regardless of whether or not they've won the World Series.

 

part of that is that they put a premium on drafting and developing quality pitching and then they use that pitching, as they get close to FA, to acquire pieces.

 

Are you referring to the same constraints Ryan worked with his first time around?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not sure I've said anything that puts me in that category, but I hear what you're saying.

 

I wasn't accusing you of doing that, sorry if it came off that way.

[Brock Beauchamp]

OK, if they don't pursue Sanchez or Jackson who is actually left from the free agent market from last offseason? How can you take the position of not signing the top guys but instead sign some other mythical alternatives?

 

Correia and Pelfrey are obviously nothing great but that was the next tier that you just advocated they sign from. They did commit $14.5 mil total to free agents after $35 mil the previous offseason.

 

There were about three rotations' worth of arms in Dempster, Blanton, Guthrie, Marcum, etc. that filled out a "middle of the road" free agent class.

[drjim]

There were about three rotations' worth of arms in Dempster, Blanton, Guthrie, Marcum, etc. that filled out a "middle of the road" free agent class.

 

I'll grant Dempster (who wouldn't have signed here) but the other three are not really better than Correia. That was always the problem with free agent pitchers last offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll grant Dempster (who wouldn't have signed here) but the other three are not really better than Correia. That was always the problem with free agent pitchers last offseason.

 

I don't see why Dempster wouldn't have signed here, though it may have been a bit of a challenge.

 

Nobody expected the Red Sox to light up the world this season, either. And all things being equal, why not take the money?

 

And Correia has done pretty well, all considering what we expected of him. Instead, replace Pelfrey with Marcum or Saunders. The Twins would be right around .500 right now and in the thick of the AL Central "race".

 

Which was why I screamed about this offseason. I always said that with a little luck, the Twins could stay in contention for a good portion of the season. Well, shockingly enough, they got some of that luck and with one more league-average *decent* starting pitcher, they'd be chasing Detroit right now and probably in second place.

 

In the end, I don't think it would matter (Detroit is a much better team) but it would put butts in the seats and this season would be fun to watch, something Twins fans desperately need from the team.

[beckmt]

Ryan has changed since his first stint as GM. Pitch to contact has been changed for the newly drafted pitchers, he has traded from strength to add arms to the Twins arsenal. Will all of these moves work, of course not, some will fail. He is trying. Money will be spent when the Twins are in position to win. That will not be this year and probably not next. At this time the Twins are trying to see what hitters will be able to help and which hitters are good AAA players that will not succeed at the major league level(at the current time read Parmelee, but there may be others). Outfielders will need to step up as there are many coming. Many of the posters just want the Twins to spend money and hope it works, Yankees may become the poster child of this era if the PED charges are upheld and many of their players in the last 10 years where PED users. Money does not cure everything, look at the Dodgers.

[drjim]

I don't see why Dempster wouldn't have signed here, though it may have been a bit of a challenge.

 

Nobody expected the Red Sox to light up the world this season, either. And all things being equal, why not take the money?

 

And Correia has done pretty well, all considering what we expected of him. Instead, replace Pelfrey with Marcum or Saunders. The Twins would be right around .500 right now and in the thick of the AL Central "race".

 

Which was why I screamed about this offseason. I always said that with a little luck, the Twins could stay in contention for a good portion of the season. Well, shockingly enough, they got some of that luck and with one more league-average *decent* starting pitcher, they'd be chasing Detroit right now and probably in second place.

 

In the end, I don't think it would matter (Detroit is a much better team) but it would put butts in the seats and this season would be fun to watch, something Twins fans desperately need from the team.

 

I also wanted Marcum but he missed the first month or so of the season and hasn't been all that effective since he returned.

 

I think they tried for Saunders but were rebuffed for geographical reasons among others. I wouldn't have wanted to go two years it probably would have taken. He hasn't exactly lit it up either.

[Seth Stohs]

fun thread!

[Seth Stohs]

Back to the actual question in the thread... when the Twins thought they had a real legit chance a few years ago, the budget went up to $115 for players. The team (right or wrong) felt it had a chance and they supplemented their home grown players with a couple of free agents. Didn't work out... but they pu their money where their mouth was...

 

Oh, and I assume if the Twins had given Edwin Jackson 4 years and $40 million (or whatever the Cubs gave him), and he was terrible, I still assume everyone complaining would not be complaining because they spent money.

[biggentleben]

Oddly enough, the Twins did rather well in later rounds. It was the first round that killed them, as strange as that seems.

 

Teams have bad runs of drafts. It happens to even the best front offices. We could speculate all day on whether Ryan would have rebounded from those drafts but I just don't see the point. I'd prefer to talk about what he's doing now... and so far, it looks pretty good on the draft front.

 

Exactly this...I just did a piece on TomahawkTalk.com on the subject of the draft and actual results. The Rays are the only team in all of baseball to have 0 players drafted since 2008 to play for their major league team. Many teams whose systems are lauded, like the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, ended up bottom 5 in either number of players drafted that played for the major league team or total WAR from their draft in the last 5 years. The Twins did rank bottom 5 in players who have played for their team that they drafted in the last 5 years, but they were mid-range in total WAR.

[snepp]

I also wanted Marcum but he missed the first month or so of the season and hasn't been all that effective since he returned.

 

He's allowed a .600 OPS over the last month, that's pretty effective.

[ThePuck]

Back to the actual question in the thread... when the Twins thought they had a real legit chance a few years ago, the budget went up to $115 for players. The team (right or wrong) felt it had a chance and they supplemented their home grown players with a couple of free agents. Didn't work out... but they pu their money where their mouth was...

 

Oh, and I assume if the Twins had given Edwin Jackson 4 years and $40 million (or whatever the Cubs gave him), and he was terrible, I still assume everyone complaining would not be complaining because they spent money.

 

They gutted their bullpen and downgraded their middle INF. The raise in payroll that occurred in 2011 had more to do with players they already had getting raises...like Mauer's big jump, than it had to do with getting a couple FAs.

 

Respectfully, how did they go for it in actual personnel?

[Kwak]

All the talk about FA pitching has focused on this past off-season--but the Twins have needed SP every season! They needed it in '07 and who did they get? Anybody to solve a known chronic problem? No. They needed SP in '08, and signed Livan Hernandez. They needed SP in '09 and settled for an August waiver wire. Needed SP in '10, '11, '12, and now in '13. Same story. The Twins were afraid to test the FA market for SP that required a multi-year contract to sign (lone exceptions: the oft-injured Pavano, and Correia, because neither would sign for less than two years). Every season they crawl out to the SP dumpster to find "arms" for one-year contracts when anybody can see that they need quality that will stay, and that means multi-year contracts. I guess when you tell the owner that you have a shortcut to success with inexpensive pitching--inexpensive pitchers get signed.

[notoriousgod71]

You don't necessarily have to trade great prospects for veterans at the trading deadline. Most deals aren't Smoltz for Doyle Alexander.

 

There are lots that are Fred McGriff for Melvin Nieves or Mark McGwire for TJ Matthews and Eric (not Ryan) Ludwick.

 

Even Bill Smith managed to acquire Pavano, Cabrera, Rauch for nothing.

[howieramone1406390264]

All the talk about FA pitching has focused on this past off-season--but the Twins have needed SP every season! They needed it in '07 and who did they get? Anybody to solve a known chronic problem? No. They needed SP in '08, and signed Livan Hernandez. They needed SP in '09 and settled for an August waiver wire. Needed SP in '10, '11, '12, and now in '13. Same story. The Twins were afraid to test the FA market for SP that required a multi-year contract to sign (lone exceptions: the oft-injured Pavano, and Correia, because neither would sign for less than two years). Every season they crawl out to the SP dumpster to find "arms" for one-year contracts when anybody can see that they need quality that will stay, and that means multi-year contracts. I guess when you tell the owner that you have a shortcut to success with inexpensive pitching--inexpensive pitchers get signed.

If Terry Ryan choses organizational suicide, he has the chips to trade for top starting pitching anytime he so desires. If you want him to retain all his top prospects and spent like a drunken sailor in the free agent market, it's just not going to happen.

[Kobs]

You can be the Brewers or you can be the Cardinals. Which would you prefer? An all-out shot at glory for 1-2 seasons (that can still ultimately fail) or a steady hand getting to the playoffs every season and then seeing what happens from there?

 

I don't think the Cardinals are a very good example to be on the opposite side of the Brewers. They've made a lot of big moves over the past dozen or so years to try to put themselves over the top.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think the Cardinals are a very good example to be on the opposite side of the Brewers. They've made a lot of big moves over the past dozen or so years to try to put themselves over the top.

 

I came up with Holliday and not much past that (and the Holliday trade didn't help them in the playoffs, where they were swept in the DLS). Who else did they get?

[drjim]

He's allowed a .600 OPS over the last month, that's pretty effective.

 

Fair enough. I just looked at his full season stats.

[old nurse]

 

part of that is that they put a premium on drafting and developing quality pitching and then they use that pitching, as they get close to FA, to acquire pieces.

 

Two of their starters and two of their relievers were drafted by Oakland. Milone anf Parker did not see time in the Oakland minor league system to be considered developed by them. Without Colon they would be in a world of hurt as none of their other starters has an ERA+ of over 100

[old nurse]

He's allowed a .600 OPS over the last month, that's pretty effective.

And a 5.2 era in the last 30 days

[ThePuck]

Two of their starters and two of their relievers were drafted by Oakland. Milone anf Parker did not see time in the Oakland minor league system to be considered developed by them. Without Colon they would be in a world of hurt as none of their other starters has an ERA+ of over 100

 

As a general rule this is how they operate. Like you, one can always find exceptions to a general way of doing things and say, 'Here, look.' Doesn't mean much, doesn't disapprove anything, but it sure makes that guy feel better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And a 5.2 era in the last 30 days

 

Which is why ERA is a bad stat to use over a brief period of time (and is a weak stat in general, really).

 

Last 28 days for Marcum:

 

ERA: 5.06

BA: .246

OPS: .690

IP: 32.0

BB: 7

SO: 33

 

Which of those stats does not line up with the others?

[snepp]

Fair enough. I just looked at his full season stats.

 

Well, he was pretty flipping awful those first few starts.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Cmon man, ....

You claimed trading prospects for veterans wins world series titles.

.....

it's just....plain....wrong.

 

It worked for the Tigers when they traded some kid named Smoltz for Doyle Alexander. Well, almost.

[jokin]

Back to the actual question in the thread... when the Twins thought they had a real legit chance a few years ago, the budget went up to $115 for players. The team (right or wrong) felt it had a chance and they supplemented their home grown players with a couple of free agents. Didn't work out... but they pu their money where their mouth was...

 

Oh, and I assume if the Twins had given Edwin Jackson 4 years and $40 million (or whatever the Cubs gave him), and he was terrible, I still assume everyone complaining would not be complaining because they spent money.

 

Edwin Jackson was on a one year deal in 2012. Those are the kind of deals that don't come back to bite you (Paul Maholm, Eric Bedard....etc.), not like the dumb one the Cubs did this year.

[jokin]

He's allowed a .600 OPS over the last month, that's pretty effective.

 

It usually helps when you type a statement out that you actually glance at the numbers beforehand. Marcum, without a spring training per se, actually has been better than Correia since May1 before last night (I haven't glanced at KC's updated numbers...there's an assignment right there....paging drjim!).

[old nurse]

Which is why ERA is a bad stat to use over a brief period of time (and is a weak stat in general, really).

 

Last 28 days for Marcum:

 

ERA: 5.06

BA: .246

OPS: .690

IP: 32.0

BB: 7

SO: 33

 

Which of those stats does not line up with the others?

Which is the problem with small sample sizes and getting to pitch against the Marlins twice to say how well someone is pitching. Marcum gives up the big inning. Every other number will look great but the ERA.