Skipping High-A: Buxton?

[jokin]

Maybe I'm getting baited in here, but what's your point? Is it your point that you generally think the Twins are too conservative, or is it your point that you believe Buxton is a Trout/Harper/Machado? They moved him up two levels last year, and it looks like the same for this year. Seems pretty bullish to me.

 

See my post above, re: Bryce Harper. Also see my thread about Buxton and the Trout Timeline. I am convinced that Buck is the real deal, by the stat test, in-person eyewitness test and by the scout/pundit evaluation test. To continue with the Twins traditional conservative approach and constant excuse-making on the slow-play gambit, is, in this case, and also with Sano, patently absurd.

[Mike Sixel]

And I think sometimes, you need to change your plan. Well, actually, since I do strategic planning for a living, I know you need to change plans often.

[jokin]

Affiliate relations are important, but are you saying only promoting 1 player would hurt those? And should they keep him in FTM for playoffs, to help them? Then next year, should NBs happiness take precedent over MN? Sometimes, you do things differently.

 

In this case, and the Sano case, the situation demands that you do things differently. They aren't kicking the door in to be promoted, yesterday, rather, they are both employing the nuclear option to door removal. Other organizations get this, why not here?

[mikecgrimes]

I doubt the Twins want to put Buxton and Sano on the same arbitration schedule. With the recent promotions, Sano, Rosario and Meyer could be timing things a little awkwardly for the Twins as it is.

 

The only way thats a problem is if they both are what we hope they might be. I expect Sano will be more like the Twins version of David Ortiz then the Red Sox version, and Buxton will probably be more like Torii Hunter then Ken Griffey Jr. We're still very early in development and so far they really haven't done much that Todd Walker or David McCarty didn't do. If they both pan out Target Field will sell out and when they finally make the big bucks we will be on a new TV deal (please bring back the Victory sports concept!!!). Superstars get paid the rest of the roster gets traded or let go to make it work.

[Steven Buhr]

I would argue that for the Twins to promote a high school position player mid-season (twice, actually... last year and this year) constitutes an adjustment in their normal plans for that kind of player.

[Riverbrian]

I hope the Twins Front Office promotes Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano with absolute perfect timing. Just like Goldilocks... Not too Soon... Not too slow but just right. And keep the flipping bears away at the same time.

[LimestoneBaggy]

See my post above, re: Bryce Harper. Also see my thread about Buxton and the Trout Timeline. I am convinced that Buck is the real deal, by the stat test, in-person eyewitness test and by the scout/pundit evaluation test. To continue with the Twins traditional conservative approach and constant excuse-making on the slow-play gambit, is, in this case, and also with Sano, patently absurd.

I don't see the approach the Twins have taken with Buxton as overly conservative at this point. Frankly, I want to see him tear up each level for a time prior to a promotion (I'm okay with a two levels a year). Sano's maximum value is at third, and he needed to work on his defense and swinging strike rate. He's shown he's better at both now; promote him. Buxton showed he mastered the level; promote him. Why is earning the promotion at each level and protecting the investment patently absurd?

[LimestoneBaggy]

I hope the Twins Front Office promotes Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano with absolute perfect timing. Just like Goldilocks... Not too Soon... Not too slow but just right. And keep the flipping bears away at the same time.

Slow clap for awesomeness.

[jorgenswest]

He should move to AA when he is ready. That doesn't mean he has to be ready to dominate. Learning how to deal with struggle is an important part of development. There really should be no other factor. Is he ready?

 

Meanwhile looking at offense and defense, he is probably the best option to throw out in CF on the big league club tonight.

[Steven Buhr]

When you think about it, if he takes the field for the Miracle before the anniversary of the first game he played for the GCL Twins after signing last summer, he will have officially played at FOUR levels of minor league ball in his first full year as a professional (both rookie levels, A, A+) as a teenager. Hard to call that being overly conservative in my book.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Why do they need to be "around" each other? They all play diff positions, not like they are double play partners etc

 

You're not a proponent of surrounding "greatness" with "greatness"?

[jokin]

I don't see the approach the Twins have taken with Buxton as overly conservative at this point. Frankly, I want to see him tear up each level for a time prior to a promotion (I'm okay with a two levels a year). Sano's maximum value is at third, and he needed to work on his defense and swinging strike rate. He's shown he's better at both now; promote him. Buxton showed he mastered the level; promote him. Why is earning the promotion at each level and protecting the investment patently absurd?

 

See: Harper, Bryce. Machoado, Manny. Trout, Mike,,,,

 

This isn't hard, folks, The above did not need to demonstrate their mastery of a level, they just got promoted. These clubs saw better uses for their investments than laboring away longer than necessary at levels they are making mockeries of...

[jokin]

I would argue that for the Twins to promote a high school position player mid-season (twice, actually... last year and this year) constitutes an adjustment in their normal plans for that kind of player.

 

And it oh-so-hurts-them, all the way down to their sphincter muscles, to do so.

 

Never has managment and coaching staff gushed over a prospect in almost perplexed anguish, awe and trepidation. I don't think they have a proper handle on what they have here.

[Steven Buhr]

Trout played 86 games at Cedar Rapids before being promoted to finish the season at A+. In all likelihood, Buxton will play 20 fewer at that level before being promoted to A+. But I guess why wait to see how things actually play out when we can complain now?

[Joe A. Preusser]

Kohl Stewart is a High School draftee. He should start at Elizabethton or the GCL. It would be crazy to send him to A Ball in Cedar Rapids for the last half of this season. Buxton will be promoted after the Kernals win the first half championship in a few days.

 

He could certainly hold his own talent wise I'd think, but rookie ball is where you learn how to be a professional. Pretty sure even Mauer didn't skip rookie ball, and he was hitting like .900 his last year of HS.

[jokin]

Trout played 86 games at Cedar Rapids before being promoted to finish the season at A+. In all likelihood, Buxton will play 20 fewer at that level before being promoted to A+. But I guess why wait to see how things actually play out when we can complain now?

 

JC, it was you yourself that expressed your own doubts just a few weeks ago in April, that Buxton would ever have lasted at Cedar Rapids this long into the month of June.

 

(BTW---At this point, I have no problem with Buxton playing out the week in CR. It's the overall philosophy that I question, there's strong evidence that Buxton is beginning to resemble other recent phenoms who didn't require babying along- by having to somehow cross over artificial hurdles like "mastering" each successive level, or showing more 'consistency", before "earning" a promotion.)

[Joe A. Preusser]

"Take precedent over MN?" No.

 

But do the Twins strike you as an organization that reacts to things on a week-to-week basis? Seems to me, they set up a plan for their players and pretty much stick to those plans.

 

Should they keep Buxton in FtM for the playoffs? Maybe. A lot of factors go in to that decision. Certainly more than just "what is Buxton's OPS the last couple weeks?" That's my point. Affiliate relations are not THE MOST important thing, but they are important. To expect otherwise is not realistic.

 

I'd like to add a few points. First, every championship one of our affiliates brings home adds to the prestige of the organization. Don't belittle minor league ball just because you prefer to only care about the major league team. Second, playoff experience is valuable at whatever level you can get it. I would take 2 weeks of playoff A ball over 2 weeks of regular season A+ ball for a player's development any day. Lastly, the exact times that we move Buxton up are probably irrelevant to his actual major league debut time. Whether he was moved up to A+ a month ago, or in another month, he will probably be in a Twins uni either next September or the following spring. A month here or there now will not likely change the ultimate timeline.

[jokin]

I'd like to add a few points. First, every championship one of our affiliates brings home adds to the prestige of the organization. Don't belittle minor league ball just because you prefer to only care about the major league team. Second, playoff experience is valuable at whatever level you can get it. I would take 2 weeks of playoff A ball over 2 weeks of regular season A+ ball for a player's development any day. Lastly, the exact times that we move Buxton up are probably irrelevant to his actual major league debut time. Whether he was moved up to A+ a month ago, or in another month, he will probably be in a Twins uni either next September or the following spring. A month here or there now will not likely change the ultimate timeline.

 

There are baseball professionals, both inside and outside of the Twins organization that are on record as saying Miguel Sano can hit at the major league level now. Others within, and outside the organization say Buxton is the best they've ever seen, in some capacity anyway. Skipping potential minor-league playoff ball for Harper, Trout and Machado- and not being the top player statisically in the given level they played with at the time- has hardly retarded their rapid progression to the major leagues.

[Steven Buhr]

jokin, you're right. I did openly wonder if the Twins would leave Buxton in CR through the end of the first half. Had they decided a couple of weeks in to May to promote him, I couldn't have and wouldn't have argued that they were making a mistake. They've promoted four Kernels already that I can think of (though one of them they ultimately released from the FtM roster).

 

But once the Twins made the decision to leave Buxton in CR through Memorial Day, I see absolutely nothing wrong with leaving him in CR two more weeks to finish the first half to help the affiliate and his team mates nail down a playoff spot. Consensus seems to be the one aspect of his game he needs the most work on is base-stealing. He can work on that for 2 weeks (one week of which was with Paul Molitor by his side) in CR just as easily as FtM and, in fact, might actually get more work on that aspect at his current level since he would arguably get on base more at CR.

 

On top of that, FtM actually goes to their break a couple of days before CR does, so again, why not let him play out the first half in CR instead of sitting around FtM on his butt?

 

What I object to is the contention that affiliate relations should have absolutely no bearing on decisions. That might be ideal in a world where MLB organizations own and operate all of their minor league affiliates, but that's not the real world that the Twins operate in.

[Joe A. Preusser]

There are baseball professionals, both inside and outside of the Twins organization that are on record as saying Miguel Sano can hit at the major league level now. Others within, and outside the organization say Buxton is the best they've ever seen, in some capacity anyway. Skipping potential minor-league playoff ball for Harper, Trout and Machado- and not being the top player statisically in the given level they played with at the time- has hardly retarded their rapid progression to the major leagues.

 

None of which really counters any of my points. Of course it is possible to promote Sano to the majors right now. Is that best for the Twins, Rock Cats, Red Wings, and Sano himself? I do not believe so. For every Harper and Trout how many failed rush experiments are there? 5? 10? Doesn't this just boil down to impatience? Take a deep breath and wait for next All-Star break/September and we'll probably see them both at Target field. Faster is not always better, and this is coming from someone who firmly believes these kids need to be challenged and challenged hard.

[Turd Furgeson]

See: Harper, Bryce. Machoado, Manny. Trout, Mike,,,,

 

This isn't hard, folks, The above did not need to demonstrate their mastery of a level, they just got promoted. These clubs saw better uses for their investments than laboring away longer than necessary at levels they are making mockeries of...

 

Mike Trout had 1312 plate appearances in the minor leagues before earning a big league promotion.

 

Byron Buxton currently has 458, and will finish with a couple hundred more before the end of the season.

 

Mike Trout spent a year in short season ball. Another year going from low A to high A. Another year completely in AA. Then the year after he spent about a month in AAA before being called up.

 

Byron Buxton spent a partial season in short season ball. He will likely spend a year in low A and high A. Next year he'll likely be in AA for the most part and could be called up shortly after.

 

If he were to do that, his timeline would be quite similar to Mike Trout's.

[Steven Buhr]

Skipping potential minor-league playoff ball for Harper, Trout and Machado- and not being the top player statisically in the given level they played with at the time- has hardly retarded their rapid progression to the major leagues.

 

Actually, in 2010, the Angels left Mike Trout in CR through the first half of the season, helping them earn a playoff spot (and actually a couple of weeks beyond the end of the first half). Then he was promoted to Ranch Cucamonga where he also helped the Quakes earn a playoff spot by winning their Division title for the second half of the season. The Angels did not promote Trout to AA for the last couple weeks of the season, as some suggest the Twins should do with Buxton. Instead, they allowed him to stay and participate in the post-season with the Quakes.

 

I guess we could say that the Angels allowing Trout to stick around to help out their A and A+ affiliates that way didn't seem to hurt his career.

[JP3700]

Harper, Trout and Machado joined contending teams. They were called up to supplement the talent that was already there, not to carry the team. I think it would be wise to continue to let Sano and Buxton develop in the minors and save the 6+ years of guaranteed team control on years where our pitching staff doesn't include five #5 starters. It's tough on young prospects to be expected to carry a team, no matter how highly touted they are. Just take a look at the Royals.

[Pitz]

There are baseball professionals, both inside and outside of the Twins organization that are on record as saying Miguel Sano can hit at the major league level now. Others within, and outside the organization say Buxton is the best they've ever seen, in some capacity anyway. Skipping potential minor-league playoff ball for Harper, Trout and Machado- and not being the top player statisically in the given level they played with at the time- has hardly retarded their rapid progression to the major leagues.

 

Jokin, I respect your arguments that the Twins need to recognize the special talent they have. I would also like to see the precocious talents like Buxton and Sano moving up and continually tested. Hopefully they are able to meet those challenges and reach the big leagues soon.

However, I think your argument about the Twins may have been brushing with too broad of strokes. I feel the Twins have in the past recognized great talents and been more aggressive in their promotions rather than always slow playing them. Thats not to say that there weren't players who couldn't have been promoted more quickly or started out at a higher level than they did, but I don't think the Twins have one set track that they keep all prospects on. The Twins recognized Mauer as a great talent and he moved through the system very quickly (especially for a catcher). Oswaldo Arcia has been promoted more aggressively than many other prospects (and while we all have high hopes for him, is not considered an 'elite' talent).

While some believe Sano can hit major league pitching now, a lot of people also have serious questions about his ability to hit quality breaking stuff. His defensive development is also important (Harper, Trout, and Machado are all terrific defensive players). I think the Twins have done alright with their promotions with him when considering his all around (player and personal) development.

Buxton is a much more complete player but it's too early to judge the Twins' promotions of him. So far, I think he's right about where he should be. Most people have been a bit surprised at how quickly his tools have translated and how much success he's had so far. If the Twins don't promote him soon, I'll be upset as well, but I don't think I can get too mad at them right now.

I'm not saying the Twins can do no wrong. They've frustrated me more than their fair share, but I don't think their player promotion timetable is as all encompassing as you have made it out to be.

[Pitz]

Informative piece from Fangraphs about ages of minor leaguers:

Minor League Leaderboard Context

 

[TABLE=width: 300]

[TR=bgcolor: #EDF1F3]

[TH=align: center]AGE[/TH]

[TH=align: center]17[/TH]

[TH=align: center]18[/TH]

[TH=align: center]19[/TH]

[TH=align: center]20[/TH]

[TH=align: center]21[/TH]

[TH=align: center]22[/TH]

[TH=align: center]23[/TH]

[TH=align: center]24[/TH]

[TH=align: center]25[/TH]

[TH=align: center]26[/TH]

[TH=align: center]27[/TH]

[TH=align: center]28[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]AAA[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.5%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.3%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]7.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]12.6%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]22.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]37.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]48.6%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]61.2%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]70.6%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]AA[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.6%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]9.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]24.6%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]46.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]68.9%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]83.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]92.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]97.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]98.2%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]A+[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.5%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]12.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]26.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]54.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]75.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]90.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]97.5%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]A[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]15.6%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]34.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]52.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]80.2%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]97.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]98.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]A-[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.9%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]19.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]31.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]63.6%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]89.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]98.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]99.2%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=align: center]R[/TD]

[TD=align: center]6.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]24.6%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]53.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]73.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]85.3%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]94.6%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]99.2%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]100.0%[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

"Looking at the table above, we see that only 7% of players in Triple-A are 22 years old or younger. The bold diagonal lines, which starts from 17-year-olds in rookie ball and moves up and to the right to 22 year olds in Triple-A, outlines the path of elite prospects. The corner in the bottom right, shaded in red, shows the where players are “old” for their level."

 

Also from Baseball America:

The Top 10 Youngest Players In Each League ... - Baseball America

 

Sano was the youngest player to start the year in the FSL, and I believe is now the youngest player in the Eastern League.

When Buxton is promoted to Fort Myers, I believe he will be the youngest in the FSL.

 

*These have probably been referenced/linked in other threads as they are not new articles but I thought they were relevant to the thread.

[kab21]

I am completely confused how anyone can think that a potential promotion schedule of 1/2 season at CR, 1/2 at FM, and 1/2 at NB before being called up is the same old, same old.

 

I am also completely confused by these Machado and Trout comparison complaints. Each of those prospects followed the same 1/2 season at each level (skipping AAA) that Buxton is on pace for. If you are going to piss and moan then you should use facts.

 

Harper was one of the absolute best HS draftees in the last 25 yrs and he played JC ball so he really isn't a comparable.

[Seth Stohs]

When you think about it, if he takes the field for the Miracle before the anniversary of the first game he played for the GCL Twins after signing last summer, he will have officially played at FOUR levels of minor league ball in his first full year as a professional (both rookie levels, A, A+) as a teenager. Hard to call that being overly conservative in my book.

 

Agreed! I am just baffled by these comments... Buxton is flying through the system so far (assuming he moves up next week). And, even if he doesn't, he's still ahead of the scale.

[Seth Stohs]

Never has managment and coaching staff gushed over a prospect in almost perplexed anguish, awe and trepidation. I don't think they have a proper handle on what they have here.

 

Seriously? The Twins brass doesn't know what they have in Byron Buxton... OK.

[jokin]

Seriously? The Twins brass doesn't know what they have in Byron Buxton... OK.

 

That's not what I said. Please try again and re-read what I actually stated.

[jokin]

I am completely confused how anyone can think that a potential promotion schedule of 1/2 season at CR, 1/2 at FM, and 1/2 at NB before being called up is the same old, same old.

 

I am also completely confused by these Machado and Trout comparison complaints. Each of those prospects followed the same 1/2 season at each level (skipping AAA) that Buxton is on pace for. If you are going to piss and moan then you should use facts.

 

Harper was one of the absolute best HS draftees in the last 25 yrs and he played JC ball so he really isn't a comparable***

 

***One year of JC ball at age 18.

 

Hopefully Buxton is on pace to duplicate this. I have used nothing but facts thus far, the Twins have notorioiusly moved players very slowly, Buxton, as well as Sano, deserve to be fast-tracked to hit the big leagues at age 20. Let's see if that actually happens, or not.... and BTW, I am a big stickler on facts about where and how appropriate body functions are used appropriately.