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Article: Twins Draft Day Primer


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Provisional Member

Great write-up, thanks!

 

One question - (assuming Appel somehow drops and is available for the twins) - Is there any other reason (besides his agent being Scott Boras) that people think it's going to take extra $ to get Appel signed? He's almost 23 and pitched a ton in college, and this is considered a somewhat weak draft. Will he be drafted higher next year, in what could be a stronger draft? Probably not. 8th last year, didn't sign, 4th this year. Mission accomplished. I hope the twins take him at #4. But why would they offer one cent over slot? So Appel can waste another year, possibly get injured, and come back as a 24 year old with another 2000+ pitches on his arm and even LESS leverage? How would that possibly put him in a spot to make more money over his career?

 

Am I missing something?

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Provisional Member

Everybody knows that a player has three chances to be drafted senior in hs, junior in college, and senior in college. Appel is the later. Do the twins fear kohl stewart wanting to play qb in texas a&m.

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I don't see Appel going for less than slot... Not sure Gray, Bryant, or Stewart will either. That said, the Twins will have certainly done their homework, and if they think there's a chance that they could get one of these guys and still "overdraft" their 2nd round pick, they should, as I'd say odds are good that Manaea falls that far. As well, there are some very intriguing HS options that could turn out to be aces themselves which may fall.

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What are the chances a McGwire declines an underslot offer? Would it be safer to try an overdraft strategy by working backwards - take the college pitcher at 4 who has little leverage to decline, so that they can throw overslot money at high schoolers later in the draft?

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I will be extremely underwhelmed if the Twins go with McGuire. I do think that is the least likely scenario John laid out, though. Unless the Twins are completely in love with McGuire, they are not going to want to hear the Butera comps that will inevitably be thrown around (rightly or wrongly). "Good HS defensive C with unprojectable bat" seems like a bad combination of risk and low ceiling for the 4th overall pick, even in a weak class.

 

Full disclosure: I know next-to-nothing about these prospects. I wasn't terribly thrilled with picking Buxton at the time. I probably shouldn't feel strongly either way about who they select.

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