Official Day 1 Draft Thread

[John Bonnes]

It has been proven that a HS starter is no more risky than a college starter. College starters are just closer to the MLB.

 

I've seen this on this board from a couple of members. Anyone have a link to this study? I just don't believe it.

[Mike Sixel]

Just curious, but if you would not take a pitcher high out of fear of injury/failure....how do you proprose your team ever get elite pitching?

 

Appel

Gray

Bryant/Stewart

Stanek

Shipley

Anyone else

[DaveW]

ugh all this is confusing. Im trying to learn stuff about the Twins and was reading all this and decided to sign up so I could ask for some info. Can you guys tell me some stuff about the Twins? School project btw...

A girl, on the internet?

 

Hi w-what is y-your..... q-question a-again?

 

:o

[DaveW]

I've seen this on this board from a couple of members. Anyone have a link to this study? I just don't believe it.

 

It makes sense, because all of the high school starters chosen are going to be high upside guys (thus why they are getting drafted out of high school) to me it seems arm injuries etc usually don't come into play later on once players are in the minors and throwing more than they ever have before (and harder)

[John Bonnes]

Chris Crawford Final Mock:

 

Twins - Stewart

 

The Mock: Final |

 

Basically this mock says: The Big 3 followed by the Twins taking Kohl Stewart. That seems to be the consensus just because I don't think anyone wants to speculate how crazy things get if the Astros or Rockie go the other way. But between both of those rumors, I have to think one of those is going to happen.

 

My prediction: I don't know how exactly, but one of the The Big 3 will be available to the Twins - and they'll still take Stewart. And I will be sad.

[DaveW]

Hah. That was my first thought as well.

 

Really? Do we care about college kids taking Aderall? Considering the crap I was doing in college, that's really tame stuff.

 

Cocaine-fueled multi-night orgies might be a problem to consider. Taking Aderall during finals doesn't even rate.

 

The only thing that would MAYBE raise a red flag is if he took aderall to preform better in baseball, I took one of my ex gf's pills last year before a baseball game last season to see if it would effect my game, and low and behold it did in fact make me focus/pick up the pitches better.

 

But then again if that was the case he could easily get a scrip.

 

Cocaine-fueled multi night orgies would put him #1 in my book, ahead of Bryce Harper. (Can't wait for that guy crying about us talking about drinking beer to find this thread)

[DaveW]

one of the The Big 3 will be available to the Twins - and they'll still take Stewart. And I will be sad.

No way. The Twins have proven they will take the best player available time and time again, no way they would let Gray or Morran past them. The only reason they would let Appel past them is if they knew they wouldn't be able to sign him.

[worm33]

Basically this goes The Big 3 followed by the Twins taking Kohl Stewart. That seems to be the consensus just because I don't think anyone wants to speculate how crazy things get if the Astros or Rockie go the other way. But between both of those rumors, I have to think one of those is going to happen.

 

My prediction: I don't know how exactly, but one of the The Big 3 will be available to the Twins - and they'll still take Stewart. And I will be sad.

 

Disagree....A more likely scenario would be Appell falling with Stewart available and the Twins taking someone like Reese Mcguire....I do not buy the twins taking Stewart. They have not taken a HS pitcher with their first pick in a draft since Dan Serafini in 1992 26th overall. Let alone one with signability concerns and leverage on his side. This is the 4th pick, I just dont see it. My #1 wish is Bryant followed by Gray.

[Vervehound]

13 hits allowed in 40 innings pitched and only 1 earned fun allowed all year? Holy &%*$, my mind is unable to compute those numbers!

 

pretty typical ace high school numbers - i'm guessing the competition was pretty fierce in that part of the world but it's hard to extrapolate anything from h.s. stats.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Personally, I think Houston goes Moran and then grabs Manaea in the 2nd. Not a bad idea at all, as both were considered top 10 talents at one point. Manaea's slide had a lot more to do with terrible timing of that injury than anything else. This idea that Colorado might pass on Bryant for a different hitter surprises me a lot. The underslot thing can work out if Houston doesn't go Moran, but if they do, the Rockies have to know that there are at least 2 names they expect to slide that they can throw a ton of cash at, cause Houston will grab one of them.

[Mike Sixel]

Not to mention the Yankees and others have multiple picks....while they can't go over slot in the draft, players know the Yankees will reward them well if they make the majors....I just think undershooting talent is super risky, way more risky than taking a HS player......

[Vervehound]

I was thinking about that this morning, if the Twins were going to go underslot, which they shouldn't, why would they go all the way down to get McGuire? Why not go for Ball, Shipley or Stankek? Or if they wanted to go farther down the list Bickford or Clarkin?

 

probably because the perceived discount wouldn't be enough to get another guy high on their board. the two-fer makes sense but there's no telling who is going to be there at 43.

 

that said, if stewart is sticking to his guns re: a&M (which seems to be posturing right now), this might be my second favourite realistic option.

[InfraRen]

JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm20s

Bowden Big Board: 1.Kris Bryant 2.Mark Appel 3.Jonathan Gray 4.Clint Frazier 5.Kohl Stewart 6.Austin Meadows 7.Braden Shipley 8. DJ Peterson

[DaveW]

probably because the perceived discount wouldn't be enough to get another guy high on their board. the two-fer makes sense but there's no telling who is going to be there at 43.

 

that said, if stewart is sticking to his guns re: a&M (which seems to be posturing right now), this might be my second favourite realistic option.

 

Any young Latin boys we should be looking at in round 2?

[InfraRen]

Chris Crawford ‏@CrawfordChrisV9s

I opened the draft chat for your questions, we'll get started in about 15-20 minutes. #mlbdraft http://bit.ly/18Zcf5X

 

Wow - sounds like he's going to go pretty much all day, get your Twins questions in:

 

Welcome everyone. We'll go for a few hours -- assuming you have questions for a few hours -- and then we'll take a break and get going through the night. I should warn you that I will be sporadic in this, as I am chatting over at ESPN as well. We'll see how good I am at multi-tasking.

[Red Bull]

It has been proven that a HS starter is no more risky than a college starter. College starters are just closer to the MLB. On the other hand, with a HS starter you can refine his delivery while he is young and monitor the stress put on the arm. IMO, college coaches can be pretty hard on arms. I just don't like the argument that since he is a HS pitcher he is "super risky."

 

Actualy more college pitchers taken in the first round over the last 40 or so years have made it to the majors, however on the average a HS pitcher that does make it is usualy better than a college arm. Is that what you meant? Heres a graph I found

 

[TABLE]

Category

College Pitchers 1965-2008

High School Pitchers 1965-2008

Drafted

356

307

Made Majors

253 (71.1%)

176 (57.3%)

Made Avg. WAR

6.65

7.23

100+ Appearances

147 (41.3%)

100 (32.6%)

100+ Avg. WAR

11.58

12.69

[/TABLE]

 

 

It shows a higher percent of college pitchers make the majors but HS pitchers are usualy better.

[InfraRen]

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Comment From Cory

Any chance Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to #4? I'm hoping for Appel or Gray on the Twins.

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I would put the odds on one of the three being available at 45 percent. Most likely Bryant.

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[nicksaviking]

Disagree....A more likely scenario would be Appell falling with Stewart available and the Twins taking someone like Reese Mcguire....I do not buy the twins taking Stewart. They have not taken a HS pitcher with their first pick in a draft since Dan Serafini in 1992 26th overall. Let alone one with signability concerns and leverage on his side. This is the 4th pick, I just dont see it. My #1 wish is Bryant followed by Gray.

 

Of course if Appel fell that means another team above the Twins were going to underslot route. That team would still be picking before the Twins at #43 and would be able to snag Manaea or whoever you are hopeing for at that point.

 

I don't think the Twins are going to pass up the BPA due to signability. Stewart and Appel won't be nearly as hard to sign once the deadline approaches.

[Red Bull]

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Comment From Cory

Any chance Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to #4? I'm hoping for Appel or Gray on the Twins.

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I would put the odds on one of the three being available at 45 percent. Most likely Bryant.

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I find that hard to believe. I would say its atleast a 55-60% chance one of them makes it to the Twins. I mean I could be wrong but how in many drafts have the top 3 rated guys actualy all been picked in the top 3? It just seems like one of them will fall for sure, especialy with the way the draft is set up now

[InfraRen]

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Comment From Guest

Kris Bryant = Miguel Sano, yes or no?

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[TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]I think Sano is slightly better, which is no knock on Bryant.[/TD]

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Comment From Chris

Would the Twins draft Bryant if he falls to the 4?

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[TD=class: chatmsgtime, bgcolor: #F6F6F6]9:05[/TD]

[TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]If Gray/Appel are off the board, yes.[/TD]

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Comment From Andrew

If the Big 3 shake-up does go down, do you see the Twins taking one of them (Bryant,Appel,Gray) for sure over Kohl Stewart? Have heard from local baseball writers they "love" Stewart.

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[TD=class: chatmsgtime, bgcolor: #F6F6F6]9:07[/TD]

[TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Love isn't strong enough of a word, but if Bryant or Gray are available, I think they're the pick. It's close though, kind of a divided room.[/TD]

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Comment From Greg

What are your thoughts on Ryan Boldt? Poor man's David Dahl?

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[TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Wouldn't call him a poor mans anything. He's got three 60 tools. The injury though makes him a very volatile prospect.[/TD]

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Comment From David

who was better coming out of HS into their respective drafts, Shelby Miller, Koll Stewart or Lance McCullers?

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[TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Kohl Stewart. I wasn't a huge fan of McCullers and I think Stewart has more helium than Miller did. Though Miller is/was fantastic.[/TD]

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[InfraRen]

Aaron Gleeman ‏@AaronGleeman3m

For whatever it's worth, I talked to a buddy in another team's front office who thinks the Twins will draft Kohl Stewart no matter what.

[TheLeviathan]

My trust in the Twins evaluating hitters has me crossing my fingers for Bryant.

[markos]

There is also this from Baseball America:

Top 100 Draft Flashback: What Does It All Mean? - BaseballAmerica.com

 

[TABLE=class: table-striped, width: 610]

[TR=class: header-row]

[TD=bgcolor: #076392, colspan: 11]PITCHERS • TOP 100 PICKS • 1989-2008 DRAFTS

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: subheader-row]

[TD=bgcolor: #BAB8B7]Position[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #BAB8B7]Source[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right]Signed[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right]Graduate[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right]Graduate%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right]Impact[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right]Impact%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right]Top 5

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9]RHP[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9]HS[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]275[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]90[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]32.7%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]11.3%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]198[/TD]

RHP

4YR

[TD=align: right]367[/TD]

[TD=align: right]136[/TD]

[TD=align: right]37.1%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15.0%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]207[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9]LHP[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9]HS[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]113[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]32.7%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]15.0%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]157[/TD]

LHP

4YR

[TD=align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=align: right]70[/TD]

[TD=align: right]47.9%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]140[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9][/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9]HS[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]388[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]127[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]32.7%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]48[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]12.4%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]355[/TD]

[/TD]

4YR

[TD=align: right]513

[TD=align: right]206[/TD]

[TD=align: right]40.2%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]76[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14.8%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]347[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9][/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9]TOTAL[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]901[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]333[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]37.0%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]124[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]13.8%[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right]702[/TD]

[/TABLE]

Graduate = 30 MLB games • Impact = 5 career WAR • Top 5 = WAR sum for five best

 

Beyond this data, I feel that baseball has completely changed how they handle young pitchers in the last 10 years, which is why I think that even studies like this over-sell the risk of high school pitchers. The over-use of pitchers is still rampant in college.

[InfraRen]

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson14s

FWIW, the #MNTwins have not reached out on Colin Moran or Austin Meadows. Most signs still point to Kohl Stewart at No. 4 tonight.

[boylan]

Not a fan of a Kohl Stewart pick. All scouting reports uniformly give him a very low grade for command and if you look at the scouting tape on the net he very deliberately looks at his feet mid-motion on every single pitch. As a consequence he picks up the target late and his pitches, while having a very nice trajectory, wander around the plate area.

 

I've never seen a coach successfully correct this except through "muscle memory" (which is a BS approach to something like this) and I think Stewart winds up as a middle reliever or back-end rotation guy at best.

 

There are better options.

[Red Bull]

Has anyone seen Klaws new mock yet? He said he was working on one last night, I dont know if its out yet?

[InfraRen]

^It's out, just haven't seen it yet. (I'm not an Insider)

[InfraRen]

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson14s

Advisor via text just now w/ a stake in the #MNTwins draft: "Stewart is going 4." Me: "What if he goes 1 to hometown?" Advisor: "He's not. "

[Red Bull]

Not a fan of a Kohl Stewart pick. All scouting reports uniformly give him a very low grade for command and if you look at the scouting tape on the net he very deliberately looks at his feet mid-motion on every single pitch. As a consequence he picks up the target late and his pitches, while having a very nice trajectory, wander around the plate area.

 

I've never seen a coach successfully correct this except through "muscle memory" (which is a BS approach to something like this) and I think Stewart winds up as a middle reliever or back-end rotation guy at best.

 

There are better options.

 

Who do you work for again? Are you a scout for a MLB team, HS or a College? Or something else? You must be a good pro scout to see something nobody else sees.

[bird]

This entire discussion of course is centered on ranking information gleaned from a handful of sources. These people are credible for sure, but it's important to remember their resource limitations. The baseball teams have multiple scouts who see these prospects many times, over the entire continuum of their amateur careers. Two dozen scouting pros will have in the least studied lots of video. They'll have meaningful information about their character and makeup. They'll have had a lot of discussion about each top prospect. So it shouldn't be at all surprising if a player that BA for example ranks as say, the tenth best prospect, goes in the top five. And not because of an underslot strategy.

 

So, we might want to get ready for the outrage if our team selects a prospect that doen't line up with Keith Law's point of view. I mean, just maybe the Twins truly believe that Frazier is the better prospect and not Stewart, just to throw out names. If that happens, it won't be because they aren't as competent as Jonathan Mayo. It''ll be a decision based on better information and a sounder basis.