Article: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Mark Appel, RHP

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1834-Twins-MLB-Draft-Profile-Mark-Appel-SP

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

If we can get him for around 6 million (and draft him obviously), I'd call that a huge win.

[Otwins]

Why would anyone offer more than the slot money. He has no leverage unless he wants to go for his masters degree at Stanford. I still think he losses money holding out for a year even though should get 2-3 million more this year. The reason I feel that way is a pitcher only has so many years and he used one of his in college. He can only move up seven picks in the draft. He ends up losing a year later in his career when (if he is as good as everyone thinks) he will be making way more than the 2-3 million extra he will make this year. He pushed his arbitration clock and free agency back a year by staying in school. With ace free agent pitchers getting 150 million dollar deals he should have signed last year. This is the only prospect that I have read about that I hope the Twins do not get. If it is already all about the money then he isn't staying in Minnesota anyway. Remember the picture of Jose Berrios when he was drafted by the Twins. I hope we get more guys that feel that way.

[Kwak]

Zero chance Appel will be available when the Twins select.

[Wanklenuts]

I agree. After reading each profile, I really wanted the guy I just read about, with the exception of the Georgia OFs and McGuire. I hope Appel doesn't fall to the Twins because he isn't worth giving up the rest of the draft. I'm hoping for Gray or Stewart.

[Red Bull]

I agree. After reading each profile, I really wanted the guy I just read about, with the exception of the Georgia OFs and McGuire. I hope Appel doesn't fall to the Twins because he isn't worth giving up the rest of the draft. I'm hoping for Gray or Stewart.

 

Hes worth giving up as much money as he wants. Rarely do you find a pitcher that has a fasball in the mid to upper 90s with 3 other plus pitches. When you think of other pitchers with 4 plus pitches Verlander is the first name to pop into my head. Hes got so much potential its not even funny. If the Twins had a shot at him they better pay up and grab him. He could potentialy be a guy that wins a team 20 games by himself, how many guys in the league are capable of that?

[tjsyam921]

I doubt he'll be around at pick 4, but if he is I'm sure the Twins have had conversions with him and have decided based on his personality and make up whether he's worth the extra money. If he makes the rotation next year he would be worth it, but you have to remember the other players you might not draft or sign because of it.

[Blackjack]

Can teams negotiate with a player before they draft him?? As in asking Boras "What would it take to sign him"?

 

After reading thru all the reviews I hope the Twins pick Bryant, yes they need pitching but power like that doesn't come along every day. He could be in the middle of the Twins lineup for 15 years while a pitcher, especially a high school pitcher, is more of a crap shoot.

 

Interesting article in the Sports Illustrated about Meadows and Frazier and Georgia baseball. They even mentioned Buxton a couple of times.

[Jeff P]

So could someone explain why they think Appel will sign for something way over slot? He has so little leverage. I am not saying you low ball the guy but I would not pay over slot and no way I pay over 5% over slot. I just can't see him passing on the money to go play independent ball or wherever. And if he does you still get a high pick the next year, but if you go over you screw the rest of this year's draft (by picking a bunch of guys you can sign below slot) or you miss out on next year's draft by forfeiting a pick. All for a guy with so little leverage! It makes no sense.

[Mike Sixel]

Would be amazing if the Twins got him. Appel, Gibson, Meyer/Baxendale, Diamond, x......

[grover738]

So could someone explain why they think Appel will sign for something way over slot? He has so little leverage. I am not saying you low ball the guy but I would not pay over slot and no way I pay over 5% over slot. I just can't see him passing on the money to go play independent ball or wherever. And if he does you still get a high pick the next year, but if you go over you screw the rest of this year's draft (by picking a bunch of guys you can sign below slot) or you miss out on next year's draft by forfeiting a pick. All for a guy with so little leverage! It makes no sense.

 

Agree. I don't see how Boras can demand over slot money. How does he put himself in a better position by holding out and delaying his big payday another year? If things go well, he could potentially start his arbitration clock in 2014 if he signs and starts playing, plus if you just sign and say all the right things you can make extra $ in endorsements. Or hold out, play indy ball (making nothing, maybe getting hurt) for most of 2013, then and at best be a mid summer callup next year, and get less money in endorsements because nobody likes you.

 

Is there any example of a player being better off financially from not signing after their senior year? Was JD Drew a senior when he did his holdout? Did he end up better off? Someone write an article looking at college senior holdouts, that would be interesting.

[eagle]

He's dominated the college ranks and has been durable. The Twins would be silly not to draft and over pay for him. They will have the money to sign him or trade if Boras becomes too big of a headache but to avoid a player of this caliber because of Boras would be insane. Get the best player available and move forward.

[grover738]

I'll also say that if he's available I hope the twins get him. If the plan is to contend in 2015/16/17, I don't think there is a player in the draft that would help more than Appel. Meyer/Appel/Gibson as 1-3 starters with Diamond/Worley/May/Baxendale/Hendriks fighting it out for the 4/5 spot with Berrios on the way. I'd take him over Bryant (we have offense coming) or Gray (doesn't seem quite as polished, I'd say Gray is a bigger risk)

[Wanklenuts]

I wouldn't be willing to give up the rest of the draft for him. Now if he signs for a little over slot then he is definitely worth it. You make it sound like he is the greatest pitching prospect to come along in a really long time. I haven't been paying attention to the draft for that many years, but I don't see it. He is arguably the second best pitching prospect in this draft and was arguably the second best talent last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If I remember correctly, if he doesn't sign he can play a year of indy ball and be a free agent. There's risk (injury), but I'd imagine if he said he wanted a 10M contract as a FA, he'd get it (or quite more) next year.

[IdahoPilgrim]

If I remember correctly, if he doesn't sign he can play a year of indy ball and be a free agent. There's risk (injury), but I'd imagine if he said he wanted a 10M contract as a FA, he'd get it (or quite more) next year.

 

Wasn't there a similar case a few years ago of a player trying that, and having it backfire on him? At least back then, once you were drafted, you couldn't be a free agent until after the next draft was held - and if you got drafted again the new team had your rights.

 

Has that changed with the new CBA?

 

edit: I found the player I was thinking about - Matt Harrington, who was drafted in 5 consecutive years (2000-2004) but ended up not signing for any of them. He played indy ball and finally, after not being drafted in 2005, he signed a minor league contract with the Cubs in late 2006, only to be released before the 2007 season started.

[Siehbiscuit]

If you go to Indy ball, you still are subject to the draft the following year. I believe he would have to go undrafted to become a FA.

[righty8383]

If you go to Indy ball, you still are subject to the draft the following year. I believe he would have to go undrafted to become a FA.

 

Correct. Diehard is wrong on this one. Players used to be able to do that about 15 years ago. That was the 'loop hole' that Boras would exploit before MLB closed it. Now a player has to go back into the draft unless, as you say, he goes undrafted.

[panolo]

I'm torn but....If by drafting Appel and signing him you basically ruin the rest of your draft I am not for it, unless he is Verlander 2.0. I think I would rather gamble on Gray or Stewart and get some better prospects in the top 10 rounds. I think last year was a prime example of how a good draft can quickly infuse a minor league system.

[grover738]

So last year Appel fell to the 8th pick? If this year he goes on the 4th pick (unlikely, but that's the scenario we're discussing) does he really think it will be worth it play a year of indy ball, just to potentially move up a spot or two in the draft? He may go backwards, by the time he would be drafted next year he'd be almost 24 years old with five+ years of pitching on that arm. He has no leverage. If he does fall to the twins, I doubt he gets more than 10% over slot.

 

So I see no way picking Appel will "ruin" the rest of the draft. Keep in mind we'd likely have to pay Stewart at least as much as Appel. Stewart has as much leverage as you can possibly have. Stewart comes with way more risk but not much if any more upside, and he won't help the twins until 2016 at the earliest.

 

If Appel is there at the 4th pick the twins have to take him. Offer him slot value, maybe a tad over. Boras is aggressive, but not stupid.

[Kwak]

Hes worth giving up as much money as he wants. Rarely do you find a pitcher that has a fasball in the mid to upper 90s with 3 other plus pitches. When you think of other pitchers with 4 plus pitches Verlander is the first name to pop into my head. Hes got so much potential its not even funny. If the Twins had a shot at him they better pay up and grab him. He could potentialy be a guy that wins a team 20 games by himself, how many guys in the league are capable of that?

 

 

They had their chance at him--and passed. Consider if The Twins did draft him last year at #2. Revere probably doesn't get traded, so no Worley or May.

Hicks is likely tearing-up AAA pitching (completely unaware that a river of cold water awaits in Minneapolis). Given the tone of the posts asking for Gibson to be promoted--multiply that by 10 for Appel's promotion.

The Twins would still be selecting 4th Thursday--but with more options in their direction. Assume that the "Big 2" are taken, as well as Kohl Stewart.

They could go college pitcher (guy from Nevada), HS pitcher (Bell), HS "toolsy" OF, Moran (3B), or under-slot and hope to draft some HS pitchers would are 2nd-4th round choices now, but "overpay" to loadup on pitching (with an eye towards trading Appel before free agency--yet having the pitching at advanced levels). All very interesting.

 

True, Appel might have refused #2 money (I really doubt that!) and the Twins select 4th and 5th. That's the worst case scenario--and it's an unlikely one at that.

 

Instead, we earnestly hope that Buxton becomes the next Kirby Puckett, but with lots of speed (though not as much charisma).

[IdahoPilgrim]

 

True, Appel might have refused #2 money (I really doubt that!) and the Twins select 4th and 5th. That's the worst case scenario--and it's an unlikely one at that.

 

 

Unless you have inside knowledge, you have no idea whether Appel would have taken #2 money or not. And in your "worst case" scenario you forgot to mention that the pick would be wasted, meaning not only no Buxton but the additional money made available to help sign other picks (because Buxton was underslot) also would have vanished.

 

I think they made the right choice.

[Ozziedavisfan]

I'd take Appel for obvious reasons. He's the best in pitcher in the draft right now. And my feeling is that you always take guys that have the opportunity to be good possible 1's. That said what it is going to take to sign is probably going to hamstring you for the next ten rounds. I also think that if the astro's are dumb enough to pass on a player they should have taken last year, ( They were also stupid enough not to take buck) then he still doesn't fall to the twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

As others have said, Appel can ask for 7M all he wants, if he goes to us at 4, he'll get slot plus our 5% at most. It is not worth it to throw away an entire draft for a pitcher, and truth be told, holding out another year isn't going to make him easier to get drafted.

[Kwak]

Unless you have inside knowledge, you have no idea whether Appel would have taken #2 money or not. And in your "worst case" scenario you forgot to mention that the pick would be wasted, meaning not only no Buxton but the additional money made available to help sign other picks (because Buxton was underslot) also would have vanished.

 

I think they made the right choice.

 

I'm sorry if I p'd in your Kool-Aid. I hope Buxton does succeed as much as anyone.

Buxton was all of $200K underslot--not even close to the allowable 5% "overage" a team may have, so it didn't "sign anybody" that wouldn't have been signed without that extra $200K.

The value of premier starting pitching is not to be scoffed-at. Several ordinary hitting teams have won World Series with premier starting pitching.

[cmb0252]

I'm sorry if I p'd in your Kool-Aid. I hope Buxton does succeed as much as anyone.

Buxton was all of $200K underslot--not even close to the allowable 5% "overage" a team may have, so it didn't "sign anybody" that wouldn't have been signed without that extra $200K.

The value of premier starting pitching is not to be scoffed-at. Several ordinary hitting teams have won World Series with premier starting pitching.

 

Having a prospect who a lot of experts think might be the best in all of baseball by the end of the year is not to be scoffed at. BA, Law, Mayo, Christopher Crawford all still prefer Buxton to Appel.

[Nick Nelson]

True, Appel might have refused #2 money (I really doubt that!) and the Twins select 4th and 5th. That's the worst case scenario--and it's an unlikely one at that.

 

Instead, we earnestly hope that Buxton becomes the next Kirby Puckett, but with lots of speed (though not as much charisma).

 

You realize that 6 other teams also passed on Appel, to draft players nowhere near as good as Buxton, right?

[Kwak]

You realize that 6 other teams also passed on Appel, to draft players nowhere near as good as Buxton, right?

So what? My Q: was there "an agreement" to take Boras down a notch? Obviously someone had to draft him "high". Recall when Buxton was selected, the Twins were "rich" in OFers. Both Span and Revere were well respected, Hicks was expected to be better than both of them, and there was "depth" for the OF bench. The rotation was known to be worse than anyone else and required " a frame-off rebuild". Appel was fully expected to be at the ML level in 1.5 years (from 6/12), and Buxton would "need some years to develop". Ok, roll the dice on Buxton, it might work--but there is still are gigantic holes in the rotation.

Conspiracy theory? No, I really think Ryan expects to skimp on pitching, hoping that inexpensive sinker-slider types (Silva) can function as mainstays and devote the bulk of the salaries to "toolsy" position players to provide an entertaining (and lower cost) team.

the 2000's have shown that playoff wins will be scarce, and the World Series will have someone else. Surprisingly, two top SPs with simply a decent hitting/fielding team can actually win in the playoffs against the huge-payroll teams.

But maybe Buxton will be the next Willie Mays--I sure hope so.

[cmb0252]

So what? My Q: was there "an agreement" to take Boras down a notch? Obviously someone had to draft him "high". Recall when Buxton was selected, the Twins were "rich" in OFers. Both Span and Revere were well respected, Hicks was expected to be better than both of them, and there was "depth" for the OF bench. The rotation was known to be worse than anyone else and required " a frame-off rebuild". Appel was fully expected to be at the ML level in 1.5 years (from 6/12), and Buxton would "need some years to develop". Ok, roll the dice on Buxton, it might work--but there is still are gigantic holes in the rotation.

Conspiracy theory? No, I really think Ryan expects to skimp on pitching, hoping that inexpensive sinker-slider types (Silva) can function as mainstays and devote the bulk of the salaries to "toolsy" position players to provide an entertaining (and lower cost) team.

the 2000's have shown that playoff wins will be scarce, and the World Series will have someone else. Surprisingly, two top SPs with simply a decent hitting/fielding team can actually win in the playoffs against the huge-payroll teams.

But maybe Buxton will be the next Willie Mays--I sure hope so.

 

Twins had Buxton #1 on their board. 99% of experts had Buxton #1 on their boards. Most experts have stated they still have Buxton above Appel. Why is it surprising they took the better player? Draft for talent and not need.