Poll: Draft Scenario 1

[John Bonnes]

Let's assume that the first three picks are Appel, Gray and Bryant (as seems likely). Let's also assume that Kohl Stewart will sign at slot, but probably not below. However, Reese McGuire will sign for less than slot - say #7 money, which would save $1.3M for future draft picks. Who do you choose:

 

a. Kohl Stewart, RHP with the most upside but most risk AND he won't be arriving to majors until 2017 most likely

b. a college pitcher like Stanek, Shipley, Manaea, etc. - less risk, less upside, but a probably arrives by 2015.

c. Reese McGuire and use the $1.3M on other picks?

 

I'll add a poll, but I'll be more interested in your comments.

[howieramone1406390264]

Jim Callis said Stewart could make it to Target Field sometime in 2015. He did not expand on it. It was about 2 or 3 draft chats ago.

[Badsmerf]

I'd still go Stewart. I haven't seen any reason to not take him other than his age. He might take a little longer to make it through the system than a college guy, but he has #1 upside that just isn't available very often. Stewart is only a little over a year younger than Sano. I doubt they would put him in Cedar Rapids right away, but if they allow him to see time there at the end of the season I don't think 2106 is too aggressive to see him (perhaps as a playoff push?). That is all in the ideal world.

[InfraRen]

When you're picking this high - or anywhere for that matter, people have been talking about, this type of player has bigger bust potential (HS pitcher/hitter vs College pitcher/hitter.) Seems like the HS pitcher scares people away, but in reality, it's really a crapshoot from all types of players.

 

That said, if this scenario plays out - drafting this high, you HAVE to take best available, and the one with the highest potential. Especially with a team like the Twins who made major moves in rebuilding this off season. Keep building that farm. You will be rewarded.

 

With all that - my pick is Kohl Stewart. He has a frame that is more muscular than most HS pitchers (which is favorable w/ injury risk moving through the minors), has a solid mix of 3 (some dominant) pitches now, with room for more and is (based on Callis, McDaniel, Law, etc.) the BPA there Based on raw stuff it's up there with Gray/Appel's. In my mind he's the perfect combo of need AND BPA.

 

Make the pick, Twins.

 

(Plus, he'll utilize the 10,000 lakes.)

[cmb0252]

A) and it is not even close. Stewart is the only pitcher in the draft not named Gray or Appel who profiles as a true ace. He also has very advanced stuff for his age. Is there a little more risk taking a HS pitcher vs a college pitcher? I'm not so sure about that in this draft.

 

Shipley has an insanely short track record because he was a converted SS and until 2 weeks ago had throw several clunkers in a row. He has #2 upside but hasn't had the K numbers you would like from a guy with his stuff.

 

Manaea was a super popular pick before the year started because of insane Cape Cod numbers from increased "stuff". Problem is he hasn't shown the same "stuff" since the Cape Cod league and had never shown it before which leaves many questions unanswered. Add in an injury and experts are starting to wonder if he will even go in the first round.

 

Stanek has been so inconsistent this year while having a very violent delivery that lots of scouts think he might be a relief pitcher in the bigs. Upside wise Stank, Shipley, and Manaea are a clear step below Stewart while IMO not being an safer. Heck, not only are they not safer I don't think anything about them shouts quicker to the bigs and isn't that the argument to take college pitcher with less upside than HS pitchers?

 

Regarding McGuire.... I just don't see the depth in this draft to justify it. Super deep draft? Maybe. This year? No thanks.

[Kwak]

My pick is Trey Ball. Power LHPs are truly rare and have a floor as trade bait or RP. Face it, there just aren't enough LHP with major league arms, "when you get the chance Take IT!"

[John Bonnes]

I'd like to apologize for setting up the poll so that only registered members can vote. I assume that is a default flag that I didn't know was turned on. For future polls, we'll try and turn that off.

 

By the way, great comments.

[boylan]

First off, unless Appel drops to 4th there is no player that's going to help the twins in 2014 so pick the best player.

 

Kohl Stewart. HS pitchers are notorious draft washouts. Scouts love the power but they tend not to polish up as they finish filling out. I disagree that he is any more muscular than the typical HS pitcher. He weights the same as Berrios and Berrios is the smallest looking 6-0 in person that I've ever seen.

 

The scouting video I've seen shows he looks at his feet mid-motion on every pitch and picks up the target late. His release point is very inconsistent and his pitches wander all over the plate area as a result. Whether the Twins can convince him that his feet aren't going anywhere I don't know. I've never seen coaches use a dog funnel but he needs it. A lot of kids can't break this habit.

 

On the flip side is that he throws some REALLY sweet pitches.

 

Reese McGuire. Defensively he's the real deal. I agree with the comments that he's almost major league ready although no idea how he would be at calling a game. Got the arm, catches the ball, frames well and throws down to 2nd well.

 

Batting he needs to work at getting his arms better extended/hitting the ball out in front of him a bit better. Quiet swing, loads up and moves towards the ball with a little leg lift/step. He's seen Puckett video. I agree that he doesn't seem like he'll hit got a lot of power but I think he makes much better contact than he has been given credit for.

 

Bottom line, take McQuire if he'll go under slot and see if the Twins can pick up a hard to sign HS arm with a protected pick. Or even a draft end pick. This strategy makes more sense if the Astros are successful in hinting to HS players they will do the same with a 1-1 Moran pick.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm pretty much good with anything (Which I'm sure surprises many of you).

 

I'd be good with Stanek because of how well he's come on, he's advanced, he has been considered a top 10 pick all year.

i'd be good with Stewart, especially if they believe he'll sign. He may have the best upside.

I'd be OK (at best) with McGuire and have to trust that he will have enough bat to be a #1 catcher in the big leagues for several years. No one is expecting Mauer, but want something. He's a consensus Top 10 guy too, which means he's pretty good. if they do that, I'll be curious how the savings will affect later picks.

 

Frankly, after the Big 3, it's a crapshoot, so get the one that allows most flexibility

[Mr. Brooks]

I think the term "close to MLB ready" is a terrible reason to pass on someone you think is better.

Good things come to those who wait.

So, I voted Stewart over the college arms.

Gibson and Wimmers were both drafted, in part, because of how close to MLB ready they were, but because of things that can't be predicted, there will likely be HS draftees who got to the majors quicker than they do.

[mudcat14]

I'm in the Trey Ball camp, as well. However, I think you let him play OF initially. Give him a couple years to fill out physically, and save the wear and tear on his young arm. If at that point you don't think the bat is gonna play, you've got a physically developed 6'6" southpaw with a cannon who should progress pretty fast.

[Mr. Brooks]

Slightly OT, I think it's time that MLB changes the rules to allow trading of draft picks. If you think you are good enough to identify a player that is being undervalued, you should be able to benefit by trading down and accumulating more value, as you can in the NFL.

[Twins Twerp]

The more I hear about McGuire...the more I like it

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd still go Stewart. I haven't seen any reason to not take him other than his age. He might take a little longer to make it through the system than a college guy, but he has #1 upside that just isn't available very often. Stewart is only a little over a year younger than Sano. I doubt they would put him in Cedar Rapids right away, but if they allow him to see time there at the end of the season I don't think 2106 is too aggressive to see him (perhaps as a playoff push?). That is all in the ideal world.

 

He'll be dead by then, and if 2106 is the goal, I think most of us will not be Twins fans anymore.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think it's Stewart and not close. As others have pointed out, aces are typically found in the first round, and while Stewart might be a tad riskier than say Shipley or Moran, he's likely to be a much bigger impact player.

[cmb0252]

The more I hear about McGuire...the more I like it

 

Personally the main question I have about taking McGuire isn't his overall talent level, kid is a top 10 prospect in the draft, but the depth of the draft. I just don't see a lot of over slot guys worthy of extra money later on in the draft.

[boylan]

Personally the main question I have about taking McGuire isn't his overall talent level, kid is a top 10 prospect in the draft, but the depth of the draft. I just don't see a lot of over slot guys worthy of extra money later on in the draft.

 

I think this is a very good point. What, 1/3 of the first round will play in the majors? To balance out a Moran (Astros) or McGuire pick you would probably need to sign several HS players in later rounds that wouldn't otherwise sign (and who were worthy of 2nd money) because the money wasn't enough. Can you get 3 kids in the 40+ round to sign for 500,000 - 700,000? No clue. But you've only got about a day to figure it out once the first round ends.

[Thrylos]

It looks like the Astros will take Moran, per multiple sources, so the Twins would really have a choice to make. I assume that either Gray or Appel to the Cubs and Bryant to Colorado, and that leaves one of the 2 "big" college pitchers.

 

I'd still take Manaea for the reasons I explained here. If one of the aforementioned pitchers can throw left handed, I'd change my mind

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

1. Stewart

2. McGuire

3. Ball

4. Shipley

 

I can live with all those picks. Anything else and I'm furious.

[Brad Swanson]

My dream scenario: McGuire at 4, Karsten Whitson at 43.

 

Although, I wouldn't actually do that. I'd take Stewart and pay him what it takes. Personally, I think there are quite a few interesting high school players who could slip to 43 that might sign if paid well (Chris Okey and Ryan Boldt to name two) and Whitson has huge upside, but I wouldn't take the risk that all the guys like them will be there later.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It looks like the Astros will take Moran, per multiple sources, so the Twins would really have a choice to make. I assume that either Gray or Appel to the Cubs and Bryant to Colorado, and that leaves one of the 2 "big" college pitchers.

 

I'd still take Manaea for the reasons I explained here. If one of the aforementioned pitchers can throw left handed, I'd change my mind

 

Manaea might be there for round 2 at the rate he's falling. I don't think I'd take that risk at number 4. If one of Appel/Gray was there, it would be a tough choice between them and Stewart in my opinion. I'd probably take Appel/Gray as the upside is similar but both are closer to the bigs.

[Einstein]

Stewart seems to have the highest upside of anyone outside of the big 3 and fills a need, how do they pass that up? He would seem like a no brainer in this scenario.

[Seth Stohs]

1.) Stewart

2.) Ball

3.) Stanek

 

Maybe they can get Manaea in the 2nd round.

[Mike Sixel]

Stewart

stanek

shipley

ball

 

I want pitching. iMO, they really need pitching, and no hitter is clearly better than any of these pitchers. I will probably avoid the forums for days if they pick McGuire.

[Oxtung]

My pick is Trey Ball. Power LHPs are truly rare and have a floor as trade bait or RP. Face it, there just aren't enough LHP with major league arms, "when you get the chance Take IT!"

 

HS LHP drafted in round 1 make my knees knock. Matt Garrioch's study showed that they, by far, are the riskiest of the 4 pitching types.

 

% that became solid regular MLB pitchers or better:

 

[TABLE=width: 200]

[/TD]

[TD]RHP

LHP

Coll.

30%

45%

HS

32%

21%

[/TABLE]

 

On top of that a full 60% of HS LHP drafted in the first round don't make it to the majors in ANY capacity. For the other 3 it is 25%-35%.

 

Save me Jeebus!!

[clutterheart]

I am not sure how anyone without "access" can comment on Stewart.

 

Do I want him? I want the idea of him - a top line pitcher. But all I have is the same reports everyone else has.

 

Have I ever seen him pitch live? No.

Do I know if he is FB is laser straight or does it move a bit? No.

Do I know if his offspeed is any good? No.

Have I sat in his living room to talk about his commitment to A&M? No.

 

There should be a choice: The player who twins think is best regardless of position.

 

That what I want.

[cmb0252]

I am not sure how anyone without "access" can comment on Stewart.

 

Do I want him? I want the idea of him - a top line pitcher. But all I have is the same reports everyone else has.

 

Have I ever seen him pitch live? No.

Do I know if he is FB is laser straight or does it move a bit? No.

Do I know if his offspeed is any good? No.

Have I sat in his living room to talk about his commitment to A&M? No.

 

There should be a choice: The player who twins think is best regardless of position.

 

That what I want.

 

I don't know if this helps, doubt it does, but I currently live in Houston and I have seen him live. He went 7 innings, K'd 10, and gave up no ERs. I know nothing about scouting but there were a ton of scouts there when I went. I over heard several say he hit 97 at least once that day. He passed the eye test for me.

 

Regarding fastball movement here is what Law had to say: "His fastball is consistently 92-94, touching 97, with good downhill plane and some boring life to his arm side." He gives him 50, average scouting grade, for future and present fastball movement.

 

As for his off speed pitch it is considered the worst out of his 4 pitches but it still got a 50 grade by low. Law had this to say about the pitch: "He also has a a straight change at 83-85 with solid arm speed but little action."

 

I have no idea who has actually gone to talk to Stewart in his living room about his commitment to A&M but I can promise you the Twins will know before they draft him at #4.

 

I don't know if you actually wanted someone to answer these or you were being sarcastic. If you did I hope that helps. If you were being sarcastic, I guess I lose the internet. I do agree they should take whomever, regardless of position, is atop their draft board.

[beckmt]

Would take Stewart is none of the big 3 are there. Would like Appel or Gray if they are there only because of shorter time to the majors

[gunnarthor]

Always go BPA available, which I think is Stewart (although Shipley is growing on me). However, if they somehow managed to get McGuire and then they knew that they could get Manaea at 43 and he'd sign, I'd be pretty tempted to do that. But I don't think that would happen and I don't want to lose BPA hoping that it drops that way.

[InfraRen]

When do we get Mr. Bonnes' take?