Article: Seth's Pre-Draft Twins Top 52 Prospects

[adjacent]

Thank you for this very informative list. One thing I noticed is that you didn't include Delbinson Romero. I know he probable is not a top prospect, but I thought that he could make the top 52, considering that there are not many above them for the position (there is a huge 20-year old coming underneath him, but you don't need me to tell you that).

[Seth Stohs]

A little surprised that Rogers is ranked ahead of Baxendale given that Baxendale was drafted ahead of Rogers and is a level ahead of him in the minors. Plus, Baxendale has had terrific numbers.

 

Also, seems like a high number of the top prospects weren't even in the system a year ago.

 

I kind of figured someone might notice that... Reasoning... 1.) Roger's is left-handed, 2.) Roger's throws a little harder, 3.) Roger's has a very good slider.

 

Of course, one ranking spot is pretty much meaningless. Certainly no slight at Baxendale who has been tremendous.

[Seth Stohs]

Thank you for this very informative list. One thing I noticed is that you didn't include Delbinson Romero. I know he probable is not a top prospect, but I thought that he could make the top 52, considering that there are not many above them for the position (there is a huge 20-year old coming underneath him, but you don't need me to tell you that).

 

That's probably a miss, and who knows, there may be others. He should probably be somewhere in the high 30s or so. He did hit 19 homers in AA last year. he was invited to minor league camp. He is now one step away, with Plouffe getting hurt he could be up sometime if they want to add him. He's also (I believe) 26. But, he was probably a miss.

[Badsmerf]

Seth, did you get to see Rogers and Baxendale? I haven't watched any video of these two yet, and basically only have the misc. scouting reports that have come out and results to go by. How much likelihood do you see them making it to the MLB as starters? These college guys are tough to judge in the lower levels...

[Shane Wahl]

I missed Randy Rosario, Lo, and Jorge myself. And Romero. I am not sure what to think about him at the moment. I guess I wouldn't mind trading Plouffe away for 200-300 prospect talent in order to give him a chance at third for the moment.

[Shane Wahl]

I think Baxendale is more likely than Rogers.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

Great list, Seth. I like the aggressive placement of Alex Wimmers.

Some fans act as if he's dead. He's simply rehabbing Tommy John. Yes, he's had physical and mental issues since being drafted, but there's no reason to think that he can't become a major league minimum salaried #3 or 4 starter.

[Thrylos]

Those lists are more of an art than a science, but I think that Baxendale is way too low and (you got to admit that if he were not a Gopher ) Mike Kvasnicka does not belong in the list. Colabello and Slama are better prospects (and they are not prospects.)

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Baxendale is certainly a top 15 guy in my mind. I'm still not on board this Vargas train and I think you're underrating the Stache aka Nate Roberts by a mile. Wimmers was very aggressive as well. I don't like the "first round" pick argument because look where Levi Michael is at. Wimmers has a long ways to go and I strongly doubt he's a better bet/talent than quite a few of the guys beneath him at this stage. Otherwise, I would say I have to agree with this for the most part. No omissions, the rest are all in the range I expect, and good work.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, did you get to see Rogers and Baxendale? I haven't watched any video of these two yet, and basically only have the misc. scouting reports that have come out and results to go by. How much likelihood do you see them making it to the MLB as starters? These college guys are tough to judge in the lower levels...

 

At the end of last season, I went to Beloit for 4 games. The only starter I didn't see for the Snappers... was Taylor Rogers. However, he was the opening night starter for Cedar Rapids this year. Very impressive through three or four innings before giving up some when his pitches got up there.

 

Last year, I saw Baxendale pitch (I believe) two innings out of the Beloit bullpen. Also impressive, but he was throwing low 90s and flashing a very hard, sharp slider.

 

It's hard to make too much out of college numbers in the low levels. I do think success/dominance in Ft. Myers is a positive, but it truly is a case where you have to see what they give when they get to AA. That said, both are just 22, so they're not at all old for the Florida State League.

 

Also, these guys were the 10th and 11th round picks a year ago. They aren't in the same category as the picks from the first or second round. I think both CAN BE mid-rotation guys and that would be great! Long ways to go for each.

[Seth Stohs]

Great list, Seth. I like the aggressive placement of Alex Wimmers.

Some fans act as if he's dead. He's simply rehabbing Tommy John. Yes, he's had physical and mental issues since being drafted, but there's no reason to think that he can't become a major league minimum salaried #3 or 4 starter.

 

I generally ranked Wimmers in the 10-12 range when he was healthy, so moving him to the upper-teens, I think, makes sense. You're right, he's out due to injury. I didn't drop Gibson much when he got hurt. Why would I drop Wimmers much more. If he comes back at 100%, there's no reason he can't be a #3/4 type of pitcher... which justifies where he is in the rankings.

[Seth Stohs]

Those lists are more of an art than a science, but I think that Baxendale is way too low and (you got to admit that if he were not a Gopher ) Mike Kvasnicka does not belong in the list. Colabello and Slama are better prospects (and they are not prospects.)

 

Propect rankings should never be science. They should be gut feel based on several factors.

 

And, I don't just have Kvasnicka on there because he is a Minnesotan and former Gopher. He's a former 1st round pick with power. It's not like I have him ranked very high. When he returns from the injury and gets back to 100%, we'll see how it goes.

[clutterheart]

Seth

Very intersted in what you wrote about Eddie Rosario:

Still some maturity issues to work through, but he will.

 

I have never heard anything like this before. Any specifics you want to share?

 

I wish they would Push Randy Rosario. Last time I checked he has not let up a homer in his professional career. An extreme ground ball, hard throwing lefty is very intriguing.

He is the prospect I keep looking for and wish to hell they would push him.

[jokin]

Seth

Very intersted in what you wrote about Eddie Rosario:

 

 

I have never heard anything like this before. Any specifics you want to share?

 

I wish they would Push Randy Rosario. Last time I checked he has not let up a homer in his professional career. An extreme ground ball, hard throwing lefty is very intriguing.

He is the prospect I keep looking for and wish to hell they would push him.

 

Held out of several games last week as punishment for lack of focus and hustle in-game.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, that's a big part of it. Rosario is very good, and he knows it. There is that fine line between confidence and cockiness that Rosario butts up against at times. Mientkiewicz hopefully took care of some of that on field last week. We saw the same thing with Sano tonight, so we'll see if he sits for a game or two.

[Otwins]

Nice to see some of the pitching is coming. Now for the next 2-3 years, we still need help there. Be interesting to see who is taken in the draft. SS does not seem so bad now, and Florimon and Escobar seem to be OK there.

 

Glad to see this comment. The more I watch those two play the better I feel about our shortstop position. I really think we have two players there that seem to be improving. Starting Pitching is what we need. I doubt that May will be a major league starter. Seems to me that he will end up as a reliever.

[wagwan]

In this list of 52, there are 23 starting pitchers, 6 relievers, 7 middle infielders, 4 corner infielders, 4 catchers and 8 outfielders. And you can see a big league future for almost every one of them. What this shows is there really isn't a position of need in the system. Everything is covered. So the Twins definitely should take the best player available no matter who it is.

[bird]

That's not completely true. The Twins scouts did identified Kepler and Polanco and payed then highly. Bill Smith might be a more "in the room guy" for them. Sano on the other hand, was outside the Twins usually International budget by the point he was ready to sign. The story goes, Sano's agent called The Twins directly and told him his price, Smith said okay it but only if Sano's agent didn't use their bid to try to parlay it into a bigger bid from another team. Sano's agent honored their agreement (even though he got A LOT of flack from the Pirates for not giving them a chance to get in a final bid). So I give Bill Smith at least some credit on getting Sano. Part of Bill Smith current job with the Twins is improving relations with Latin America. So the Twins must think that was a positive part of his regime too.

I agree completely with this, but it doesn't refute the point I'm making. Giving Billy Smith COMPLETE credit for the success the Twins are having in the international arena is total nonsense. And while Smith should get partial credit for the Sano signing, there's no evidence whatsoever that allows one to conclude that he acted alone in the decision-making on this. And logic would tell us that, given the sheer number of people employed in the scouting department, that a lot of people deserve partial credit and that at least one or two deserve more credit that the GM for Sano's signing, and certainly for the rest of the success. Why would one conclude that Sano would not have signed if someone other than Smith was GM? mike wants wins and others, in my opinion, aren't trying to credit Smith so much as they're trying to promote their narrative by baselessly discredit Ryan.

[Seth Stohs]

In this list of 52, there are 23 starting pitchers, 6 relievers, 7 middle infielders, 4 corner infielders, 4 catchers and 8 outfielders. And you can see a big league future for almost every one of them. What this shows is there really isn't a position of need in the system. Everything is covered. So the Twins definitely should take the best player available no matter who it is.

 

So, they should just skip the draft completely... they don't need anyone... Ha! I think you make a good point. There may be big league potential in all of them, but generally speaking, only maybe the top 5 prospects in any ranking will be impact types. Those in that 6-18 range can be regulars, mid-to-back rotation types and quality bullpen arms. After that, you're talking about role players, cups of coffee, etc. (except for the really young types that I'm not ready to move up yet).

 

At the end of the day, somewhere around 10 of them will get to the big leagues and we hope that 3-4 of them are impact. The Twins system is nice though. I believe that the first 7-9 can be real impact types, and a lot of them can be role players.

[righty8383]

He certainly could. With Sano and Polanco, they had them begin play in the DSL and then when the GCL season started, they moved them there.

 

Hmm, so the DSL started today and Minier is not on the Twins' roster. Interesting, I would have bet my next paycheck that he would at least start is pro career in the DSL. Given his age and the fact that he is a product of the DR.

[30whales]

Are you planning on doing another one of these after the draft?

[Seth Stohs]

Are you planning on doing another one of these after the draft?

 

No, not until following the season, like a preliminary one. Then the final one will again be in the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook next January.

[Seth Stohs]

Hmm, so the DSL started today and Minier is not on the Twins' roster. Interesting, I would have bet my next paycheck that he would at least start is pro career in the DSL. Given his age and the fact that he is a product of the DR.

 

Well, he was at Instructional League last year, and they gave him money, so I'm not completely surprised, though I too would have guessed he would spend a little bit of time there.

[2wins87]

If some more people want to constuct such a list, I will compile them into a "super list" for TD.

 

Sounds fun. I've been trying to keep a twins prospect board this year as it's a good way to follow the minor leaguers

[cmb0252]

Interesting look at BA's top 100, which several of the guys made BA's list, success rate. For those too lazy to read here is the summary and it's good news:

 

"I threw a lot of graphs out there, but the biggest takeaway is the second one: nearly 80% of the top 100 players in recent seasons were ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America. Of all the talk about failure rates (12% of prospects don't even get to the majors, only 69% fail to put up a career WAR over 10), the fine folks at BA are really good at finding the top players."

 

Full article here:

 

How Well Does the Baseball America Prospect Top 100 Estimate the Top 100 Future Players? - Beyond the Box Score