Article: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Kohl Stewart, RHP

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1801-Twins-MLB-Draft-Profile-Kohl-Stewart-RHP

[h2oface]

Watching the Cardinals and Orioles starting pitchers from the 2012 draft...... you have to wonder if the Twins really want pitching help.

[Carneal&Gordon]

I'm trying to get a read on who Jeremy "wants" the Twins to pick as a fan. He was the first to predict Stewart to the Twins so that may be an indication. I'm starting to convince myself to be pleased when they take McGuire at 4 and hopefully get a high value player in the 2nd round.

[righty8383]

Honest question, why should it be noted that he is diabetic?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Honest question, why should it be noted that he is diabetic?

 

When you're potentially giving someone millions of dollars, health issues should be mentioned. His adjustment to minor-league ball could be more difficult. It sounds as though the Twins have no concerns, but I'm not sure that would be the case with every team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Diabetes isn't that big a deal as long as it's under control and Stewart is sticking with his diet/medical plan. He can function pretty normally in that case. It's an issue if he doesn't take his meds or watch what he eats (then again, in professional sports, this is an issue whether he's diabetic or not)... There's some risk there, if the Twins are going to plunk 4M on him, but that's also something that some decent research will uncover.

[Eric in Madison]

If the Twins draft him, it will be knowing what it will take to sign him. I'm not worried about that aspect.

 

I dislike the idea of HS pitchers this high in the draft. The risk is so crazy high that, in my view, it outweighs any potential rewards.

 

However...I can't say I'm thrilled about the alternatives. I guess one of the college pitchers. I'll be surprised if they make an under slot deal with a lesser talent in order to pay more later in the draft, because they don't have another pick until 43. It would be easier to see if you could transfer unspent draft money to international free agents, but you can't.

 

Thanks for all the work on this, Jeremy. They've been fun to read.

[Mike Sixel]

Is there supposed to be a blue background on this article? Almost unreadable with black font.

 

Who is he? Future #1 starter for the MN Twins, that's who.

[gunnarthor]

 

However...I can't say I'm thrilled about the alternatives. I guess one of the college pitchers. I'll be surprised if they make an under slot deal with a lesser talent in order to pay more later in the draft, because they don't have another pick until 43. It would be easier to see if you could transfer unspent draft money to international free agents, but you can't.

 

Thanks for all the work on this, Jeremy. They've been fun to read.

 

This is pretty much how I feel. I might come around to Shipley, a Zimmer like guy who might be a #2 but I really don't want a non-pitcher. Big hope would be that the Astros take Moran and let one of the big 3 fall to us but if that doesn't happen, Stewert isn't a bad consolation prize.

[markos]

Two comments relating to the risks of high-school pitchers, but long story short, I don't think drafting the best high school pitcher is any more risky than drafting a college pitcher.

 

First, if you look at the list of right-handed college pitchers selected in the top-5 in the same timeframe, the results aren't that much better:

 

Mark Prior, Cubs, 2nd, 2001

Dewon Brazelton, TB, 3rd, 2001

Bryan Bullington, Pittsburgh, 1st, 2002

Kyle Sleeth, Detroit, 3rd, 2003

Tim Stauffer, SD, 4th, 2003

Justin Verlander, Detroit, 2nd, 2004

Philip Humber, NYM, 3rd, 2004

Jeff Niemann, TB, 4th, 2004

Luke Hochevar, KC, 1st, 2006

Greg Reynolds, Col, 2nd, 2006

Brad Lincoln, Pit, 4th, 2006

Brandon Morrow, Sea, 5th, 2006

Stephen Strasburg, Was, 1st, 2009

Gerrit Cole, Pit, 1st, 2011

Trevor Bauer, Arz, 3rd, 2011

Kevin Gausman, Bal, 4th, 2012

Kyle Zimmer, KC, 5th, 2012

 

The second point is that if one looks at the high school pitchers drafted in the top-10 (not just top-5), there are a lot of good names.

 

Colt Griffin, KC, 9th, 2001

Zach Grienke, KC, 6th, 2002

John Danks, Tex, 9th, 2003

Homer Bailey, Cin, 7th, 2004

Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 7th, 2006

Jarrod Parker, Arz, 9th, 2007

Madison Bumgarner, SF, 10th, 2007

Zach Wheeler, SF, 6th, 2009

Jacob Turner, Det, 9th, 2009

Karsten Whitson, SD, 9th, 2010

Archie Bradley, Arz, 7th, 2011

Max Fried, SD, 7th, 2012

 

Analyzing the results of players based on their draft position is error prone on several levels, and one of the more important reasons is that the signability rather than the talent of a player often impacts their draft position, particularly prior to the current CBA. So it isn't always a fair assertion to say that the first high school pitcher drafted in a given year was actual the best high school pitcher. When comparing the drafting Stewart to previous drafts, it is important to look at how the consensus best high school pitcher performed, rather than those that were drafted highest. I would like to research this question a little further, but I don't have the time right now.

Taking both lists together, I don't see any clear-cut evidence that high school pitchers are a riskier commodity than college pitchers. All pitchers have a lot of risk, so I don't think it makes any sense to skip on Stewart and instead draft a second-tier college pitcher like Shipley just to avoid risk.

[InfraRen]

Though he is a year or two further away from making a contribution than many fans would prefer, you can’t try to turn the baseball draft into band-aids. At the end of the day, you want to have as much talent in the organization as possible and adding a talent - albeit someone who is a little raw (due to time spent on another sport) and comes with a significant amount of risk – is a giant leap in the right direction.

 

THIS. When you're drafting this high, the bust rate is always going to be high, HS pitcher/hitter, college pitcher/hitter. You NEVER know. So you pick the guy with the highest potential and hope for the best. That's Kohl Stewart.

[bird]

markos, thanks for a very informative post!

[Rick Niedermann]

Don't like the videos on Stewert. Lacks control. All over the place. I hope the Astros take the 3B from N Carolina and one of the big 3 drop to us. If not, Shipley or Stanke, maybe Manea appeal more to me then Stewert.

[Mike Sixel]

Manaea? he won't even be a first round pick now.

[Steve Lein]

Honest question, why should it be noted that he is diabetic?

 

It's not really a big deal if it is controlled well. However, as a diabetic myself, I can attest that it also carries a higher risk of injuries to things such as the shoulder. I have a bad wing right now and my doctor mentioned the issue I have is quite common for diabetics. Has to do with blood circulation to soft tissue/muscles.

[InfraRen]

Perfect Game just posted their top 50 Draft Prospect Scouting Report, first 5 are free. Stewart:

 

5. KOHL STEWART, rhp, St. Pius X HS, Tomball (Texas)

Stewart came into the spring with as many questions dogging him as any top prospect in the country but has stepped up and answered all of them emphatically. The first and most important question was the health of his right shoulder, which was injured in a football game in November. Not only did Stewart come back healthy, he came back better, with his fastball velocity consistently in the mid-90s, complemented by a newly developed curveball that immediately rivaled his already potential plus slider for quality. With his name now being mentioned frequently and almost exclusively among the top 10 picks, the questions about Stewart taking advantage of his football opportunities at Texas A&M have also become less frequent, although they are sure to play a leverage role in his draft negotiations. For more on the hard throwing Texas right hander, read his Perfect Game Draft Focus Profile here.

[Oxtung]

Just to add a bit of backing to Markos' excellent post, Matt Garrioch did a study of drafts from '87-'01 and the success rate of all players in all rounds. He found that there was almost no difference between the success rate of high school pitchers and college pitchers drafted in the first round. IIRC high school pitchers actually had a ~1% better chance to become average or better pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

Jeremy's list of recent HS righties drafted top 5:

 

Dylan Bundy, Baltimore, 4^th overall, 2011

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh, 2^nd overall, 2010

Matt Hobgood, Baltimore, 5^th overall, 2009

Mark Rogers, Milwaukee, 5^th overall, 2004

Chris Gruler, Cincinnati, 3^rd overall, 2002

Clint Everts, Montreal, 5^th overall, 2002

Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia, 4^th overall, 2001

 

Markos' list of recent HS righties drafted 6-10

 

Colt Griffin, KC, 9th, 2001

Zach Grienke, KC, 6th, 2002

John Danks, Tex, 9th, 2003

Homer Bailey, Cin, 7th, 2004

Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 7th, 2006

Jarrod Parker, Arz, 9th, 2007

Madison Bumgarner, SF, 10th, 2007

Zach Wheeler, SF, 6th, 2009

Jacob Turner, Det, 9th, 2009

Karsten Whitson, SD, 9th, 2010

Archie Bradley, Arz, 7th, 2011

Max Fried, SD, 7th, 2012

 

Strange that the guys picked 6-10 are better than the guys picked top five. Perhaps this just indicates that teams have been more cautious than needed with HS pitchers. Many of the guys picked 6-10 would have been well worth a top 5 pick.

[fairweather]

Even if he became the twins best pitcher ever I couldn't cheer for this kid. Hope the Twins look elsewhere.

[Oxtung]

Jeremy's list of recent HS righties drafted top 5:

 

Dylan Bundy, Baltimore, 4^th overall, 2011

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh, 2^nd overall, 2010

Matt Hobgood, Baltimore, 5^th overall, 2009

Mark Rogers, Milwaukee, 5^th overall, 2004

Chris Gruler, Cincinnati, 3^rd overall, 2002

Clint Everts, Montreal, 5^th overall, 2002

Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia, 4^th overall, 2001

 

Markos' list of recent HS righties drafted 6-10

 

 

 

Strange that the guys picked 6-10 are better than the guys picked top five. Perhaps this just indicates that teams have been more cautious than needed with HS pitchers. Many of the guys picked 6-10 would have been well worth a top 5 pick.

 

Many of those guys drafted 6-10 were the first HS pitchers off the board though. Grienke was the third HS arm off the board in 2002, Homer Bailey has been meh and was the second HS arm picked in 2004 and Zach Wheeler was the second HS arm of 2009. So at this point only Grienke really stands out as being drafted later than he should have been. Zach Wheeler certainly could be added to that list by next season. All in all though the order in which the HS arms have been drafted seems to have been pretty good. At least with respect to those 2 lists.

 

Rereading your post you clearly are just saying you thing more HS arms should have gone top 5 which I agree with.

[Seth Stohs]

Very interesting stuff showing that the college pitchers are just as risky long-term than the high schoolers. Maybe their floor is higher, but the risk is still there.

[cmb0252]

Even if he became the twins best pitcher ever I couldn't cheer for this kid. Hope the Twins look elsewhere.

 

I'm confused....what did he ever do to you? Did he beat you up in middle school and take your lunch money? From all accounts he doesn't have any real character concerns.

[mlhouse]

Since talking to my cousin who is very in tune with A&M football, I have come around on drafting Kohl Stewart. He said that the normal bonus slot of the 4th overall pick is probably more than adequate to get him out of his football commitment. If the college arms like Shipley were just a notch better they would be no-brainer picks, but I have come around to drafting Stewart's upside.

 

WIth that in mind, this organization needs to continue to stock up its pitching staff. I would use the next three picks on college arms like Aaron Blair (Marshall) at @43, Carlos Salazar (Fresno St.) at @78, and AJ Vanegas (Stanford) at @110.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'd be curious to see a list of names of players that were drafted BEFORE the guys that were drafted 6-10. I'd bet those guys were passed on for "more proven" players.

[Pitz]

Keith Law's latest mock and chat today suggesting that they would still pick Stewart even if Gray were available makes it seem like Kohl Stewart is almost certainly the Twins' guy.

 

Geordy (NJ)

 

Love the Mock today, what are the chances that Gray really does end up in Cleveland's lap?

Klaw (1:10 PM)

Cleveland gets one of the top five guys, if they want one; if the Twins are as locked in on Kohl Stewart as the industry believes, and they pass on whichever of the four college guys gets to them, then Cleveland gets someone they'd be very excited to land. I think their nightmare scenario is that Gray, Appel, Bryant, and Moran go 1-4, which can happen if Moran does go 1-1.

[kab21]

Very interesting stuff showing that the college pitchers are just as risky long-term than the high schoolers. Maybe their floor is higher, but the risk is still there.

 

I didn't follow the draft a decade ago but I followed that group as prospects (albeit in hindsight). I remember there were several college pitchers selected for signability reasons. This is one of the reasons that Pirates were an awful franchise with 4 collegiate pitching busts (van bensalphabet, bullington, moskos and lincoln) with one success (Maholm). One interesting bust is Stauffer. He made the majors recently but failed his signing physical and signed way underslot IIRC. They would have been way better off not signing him and getting a pick the following year.

[markos]

I remember there were several college pitchers selected for signability reasons.

 

This is one of the major problems with these comparisons. This could be mitigated by comparing pitchers based on the BA drafting ranking rather than their actual draft position. This would eliminate some of the signability influence that makes draft position unreliable. But this adds a new problem as some of the elite high school pitchers ended up going to college each year. How should a Gerit Cole or Matt Harvey be counted? They were each identified as one of the best high school pitchers but ended up going to college. Should they also be considered successful high school prospects, just college, or both? An interesting study would include those players in the high school success/failure list.

[kab21]

The pre-draft BA ranking is an interesting idea. I think at a minimum those guys (esp the Pirates picks) are a lesson against taking a safe, underslot pick.

[InfraRen]

And so it continues.......

 

Kohl Stewart ‏@KohlStewart11m

Good luck to all my aggie teammates moving in today. Ill be there as soon as I can

 

#leverage

[InfraRen]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA2m

No. Always was going to sign @wexlerrules: Kohl Stewart loses some leverage with the new news A&M landed the top QB in the nation? #mlbdraft