Article: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Reese McGuire, C

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1784-Twins-MLB-Draft-Profile-Reese-McGuire-C

[cmathewson]

No high school catcher is "ready for the majors defensively". Maybe he's good at catching 80 MPH fastballs and 70 MPH slurves. Maybe he's got a strong arm. But that does not mean he can call a game, manage an at bat, or set the defense. There's a lot more to catching than having tools.

[jokin]

If they Twins draft McGuire the Twins are likely going to be widely criticized, some of which is fair and some of which is not. Perception is that the Twins need to add pitching, that they are too enamored with defensive catchers and that they are unwilling to spend money. Drafting McGuire would reinforce all of those paradigms.

 

I concur with Christy above, what catcher in HS is ready for the majors, this is an absurd scouting report if that's what they're trying to sell to the public.

 

I think the criticism is more likely to revolve around the incredibly risky madness of not drafting the best player available, and instead going for a guy with tons of questions surrounding him- getting the #4 overall pick- a guy who has a chance to be mentioned in the same breath as "the next Drew Butera" as the downside consolation prize??? WT???- and surrounding the history of the remote likelihood of a HS catcher in recent years without a certified hitting tool ever making a mark in the big leagues at the plate would be foolhardy.

 

Simply put, Risks taken with this high of a pick must have incredible upside reward. I don't see it from this guy, and so what if you get Manea later on and he has the sore-armed history already on his resume to realistically project as just another breakdown candidate, a la, Alex Wimmers?

[jokin]

And what if you're "sure" that Manea will sign, but 3 clubs ahead of you also got that same assurance from his agent? Can TR win a real-time in-draft bidding battle with 3 or more other clubs who also are thinking along these lines? Very sketchy.

[Seth Stohs]

Manae a May be available when the Twins make their 2nd round (maybe 3rd round!) pick.

[beckmt]

Far too risky a move for me. Would rather take Stewart on a flyer, may be able to get him for slightly under slot, and still work on getting a better pick later

[Rick Niedermann]

To risky for me too. Although Butch Wynegar was starting at 19 for the Twins and hit .260. If there were some way to project this kid to hit .260 in 4 years this scenario might be worth the risk. I am not sold on Kohl Stewert either. His videos show him all over the place. Control looks to be an issue. Shipley or Stanek would be much better picks. I guess we can always hope that Houston or Colorado try this scenario and one of the Big 3 drops to us.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Reese McGuire did catch Kohl Stewart in the Pefect Game All-American Classic and if Stewart was only throwing 80 mph fastballs with 70 mph slurves then I wouldn't Stewart either.

 

McGuire is advanced behind the plate. In all facets of the defensive aspect of the game. Obviously he'll have work to do. There aren't a lot (or any?) amateur catchers that get the "he's going to make pitchers so much better like Yadi does", that's the type of defensive talent McGuire is. Are there questions? Absofreakinlutely. But defensive backstops are guys that Twins value way too high anyway, so when you have one that is a consensus Top 15 talent, I'd be surprised if the Twins brass didn't get a chubby talking about him and consider him at #4.

[cmathewson]

Reese McGuire did catch Kohl Stewart in the Pefect Game All-American Classic and if Stewart was only throwing 80 mph fastballs with 70 mph slurves then I wouldn't Stewart either.

 

McGuire is advanced behind the plate. In all facets of the defensive aspect of the game. Obviously he'll have work to do. There aren't a lot (or any?) amateur catchers that get the "he's going to make pitchers so much better like Yadi does", that's the type of defensive talent McGuire is. Are there questions? Absofreakinlutely. But defensive backstops are guys that Twins value way too high anyway, so when you have one that is a consensus Top 15 talent, I'd be surprised if the Twins brass didn't get a chubby talking about him and consider him at #4.

 

You don't spend your #4 overall pick on the future Drew Butera (his floor).

[Pitz]

Maybe he's good at catching 80 MPH fastballs and 70 MPH slurves.

 

 

Well then he's perfectly suited for catching the Twins staff.

[Mike Sixel]

Awful idea, just awful. What happens if they take this guy, and there is no good underslot guy available in round 2? You've passed on much, much higher upside players, and ended up with a HS catcher.....ugh. Just. Don't. Do. It.

[grover738]

No. You don't use the 4th overall pick on a player with limited upside, not with Kohl Stewart on the board. If they want to take the safe route, take Shipley. Plus, things are lining up for the Twins to have a real talent influx in 2014/15/16. This guy would not be ready by 2016, but a college arm or very talented HS pitcher (Stewart) probably would be.

 

Plus, they have Hermann, Josmil Pinto at AA, and Koch at Hi-A. Not loaded at catcher by any means, but it's nowhere near as big of a need as starting pitching or middle infield.

[Seth Stohs]

You don't spend your #4 overall pick on the future Drew Butera (his floor).

 

Is that the Twins scouting report on him, or is it the scouting industry's report on him? Maybe the Twins love his defense (which does matter) and believe that he has the size, swing, strength, power, approach to be better than average at an important position?

 

I'm definitely not advocating taking McGuire... But he is a consensus Top 10 guy which means he isn't terrible.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess that's a rhetorical question, Seth......they have 1 SP in their minors we are pretty sure will be in the majors next year....take a pitcher. Sure would be nice to have a rotation of Appel, Gibson, Diamond, guy taken this year, Worley/Meyer......

[Siehbiscuit]

BPA...if its McGuire, take him. If it's not (and its not), move on and take BPA!

[nicksaviking]

Any team that makes a first round pick based on defense needs a new front office. As much as some may like to think defense is the most important part of baseball, it isn't. At least not any longer. It's about pitching and driving the ball.

 

Stay away, not a safe pick, not a smart pick, it's just wrong. I agree with Grover, if the Twins want to go underslot pick Shipley. Though I would not be happy if they went underslot.

[Seth Stohs]

I guess that's a rhetorical question, Seth......they have 1 SP in their minors we are pretty sure will be in the majors next year....take a pitcher. Sure would be nice to have a rotation of Appel, Gibson, Diamond, guy taken this year, Worley/Meyer......

 

Whoever they draft at #4 likely won't be ready next year either.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, Wacha and Gausman are already up from this last draft....and there are players from 2011 and 2010 that other teams have drafted that are up.....more than a few, actually. But I agree, this is the Twins, and that player will not be up next year either, but that wasn't the whole point of the post, not even the key part really.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If the Twins were confident that this ankle/hip thing with Manaea is a fluke and that they knew he'd be there in round 2, I could see this, but truth be told, I doubt Manaea drops that far, nor do I feel comfortable with this pick.

[Twins Twerp]

Any team that makes a first round pick based on defense needs a new front office. As much as some may like to think defense is the most important part of baseball, it isn't. At least not any longer. It's about pitching and driving the ball.

 

Stay away, not a safe pick, not a smart pick, it's just wrong. I agree with Grover, if the Twins want to go underslot pick Shipley. Though I would not be happy if they went underslot.

 

Isn't pitching part of defense?

[jokin]

Any team that makes a first round pick based on defense needs a new front office. As much as some may like to think defense is the most important part of baseball, it isn't. At least not any longer. It's about pitching and driving the ball.

Stay away, not a safe pick, not a smart pick, it's just wrong. I agree with Grover, if the Twins want to go underslot pick Shipley. Though I would not be happy if they went underslot.

 

Hear, here! There can't be many clubs left in baseball that adhere to such archaic thinking about prioritizations. Though the baseball draft isn't like football or basketball, there would still be yet more brewing of discontent among the Twin fanbase paying public should the FO choose to take such a foolhardy path with a very, very valuable #4 pick. There are FA options for proven catchers....why?? why?? why??

[cmb0252]

While Gausman is up now his first outing wasn't what you call a quality start. Wacha is pitching this week but who knows how it will turn out. A limited amount of innings from either, heck both, these players doesn't make the Twins a play off team. Take the best player regardless of time till the majors. Outside of the uber elite rookies most struggle their first year or two anyways.

 

Now is McGuire the best player at 4? No way I could see it. Personally, i have about 10+ prospects ahead of him. As people have said above if you are going under slot take Shipley but you better hope some big names fall.

[Seth Stohs]

As I've stated, I would probably lean toward Stewart or Stanek at this point. I'm just not going to pretend I know more about these players and their tools and upsides than the Twins scouts or others.

 

(Note - I also went on the record last year and said I would have taken Gausman.)

[Mike Sixel]

While Gausman is up now his first outing wasn't what you call a quality start. Wacha is pitching this week but who knows how it will turn out. A limited amount of innings from either, heck both, these players doesn't make the Twins a play off team. Take the best player regardless of time till the majors. Outside of the uber elite rookies most struggle their first year or two anyways.

 

Now is McGuire the best player at 4? No way I could see it. Personally, i have about 10+ prospects ahead of him. As people have said above if you are going under slot take Shipley but you better hope some big names fall.

 

 

True, but having no pitchers on the roster helps the Twins even less......it is about more than one piece, not just one piece. True, Gausmann gave up 4 runs, one on a 3 run homer to a guy that hits a lot of HRs......but talk about SSS, and he and Wacha are in the majors. Like it or not, odds are that Buxton never even makes it that far, he's only in low A ball.

 

I won't repeat what I would have done, you can find it elsewhere on the site,a nd Seth hates it when I type the same thing in thread after thread.....

[cmb0252]

Odds are that Buxton never even makes it that far? In Law's updated prospect list he moved Buxton to #2. Good chance he ends the year in high-A. HS players do have a higher bust rate than college players but that doesn't mean every one busts at the same rate. Once again, the Twins took the safest/quickest to the bigs player in Wimmers a few years ago and how has that turned out?

 

On Gausman, I have no problem with preferring him to Buxton coming out of the draft. I loved Gausman coming out of college but saying X player will be in the bigs quicker so he is better is short sided. Gausman is a heck of a talent but it will be years to know who is better.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, I've never actually said Gausman will be better for sure.....and yes, lots of top prospects have never made the majors. I think Buxton will succeed, I think he'll be a very good player. I think he has a chance to be a great player. But he's in low A.....we just don't know.

 

Well, Wimmers got hurt. You can't usually predict injuries. And, who knows. Maybe in two years he's in the rotation and effective, we don't know yet how that worked out anymore than we know if Buxto will be good.

 

I'm sticking with my belief that if you refuse to sign good FA pitchers, the only way to get them is to draft them when you have a chance. Passing twice, for a team with only 3-4 guys that are even prospects, and zero legit MLB pitchers, well, good luck building a staff. And don't put up the three college relievers from last year, please.

[jokin]

I agree, I've never actually said Gausman will be better for sure.....and yes, lots of top prospects have never made the majors. I think Buxton will succeed, I think he'll be a very good player. I think he has a chance to be a great player. But he's in low A.....we just don't know.

 

Well, Wimmers got hurt. You can't usually predict injuries. And, who knows. Maybe in two years he's in the rotation and effective, we don't know yet how that worked out anymore than we know if Buxto will be good.

 

I'm sticking with my belief that if you refuse to sign good FA pitchers, the only way to get them is to draft them when you have a chance. Passing twice, for a team with only 3-4 guys that are even prospects, and zero legit MLB pitchers, well, good luck building a staff. And don't put up the three college relievers from last year, please.

 

I agree with your sentiments on this point and have gone back and forth on the Buxton/Gausman debate. You can go the other way and go against your argument by using Mark Prior and Joe Mauer as an illustration. Of course, with Gausman, the Twins would never have fast-tracked him at the rate the Orioles are comfortable doing.

 

I particularly think you undersold your estimtion of Buxton's career path. Barring injury, he's a virtual certainty to be in the majors, by as early as 2015, perhaps even, late 2014. How far he goes up the major league food chain will be up to him, but he certainly has a far higher ceiling than your minimalist dismissal of his chances suggest.

 

Still, if these 2 were essentially equal in the BPA rankings in 2012 (it was probably a close call), it would seem the Twins had to go with Gausman, given the glaring need and the draft apparently being their only viable route to re-building the rotation.