Twins eager to bring Arcia back??

[jokin]

Jason Parks and the "staff" of baseball prospectus, which I believe is headed by Kevin Goldstein, though it doesn't say who wrote that specific report.

Those are the 2 specific ones mentioned in the thread, with other posters saying they have also seen/heard the same thing elsewhere.

 

Was this report published before, or after, his performance thus far this season?

[Mr. Brooks]

He's only 23 and 6'9". Young, tall guys already loaded with good stuff and physical talent certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt about their developmental ceiling. I think it's pretty much accepted gospel, that Meyer's height, and tall players in general, take longer to refine their mechanics. For example, the video of Meyer I saw of him after the acquisition showed that his release point varied wildly from pitch to pitch

 

Yeah, I hope you are right. I'm all for the Meyer trade even if it doesn't pan out. Have to be willing to gamble for front line starters.

I'm just saying let's not pencil him in yet. I'm not a scout, and if some respected scouts are saying they don't think he'll develop one, that is enough to at least make me pause and respect that they know more than I do.

[Mr. Brooks]

Was this report published before, or after, his performance thus far this season?

 

Published May 24 of this year.

[jokin]

Yeah, I hope you are right. I'm all for the Meyer trade even if it doesn't pan out. Have to be willing to gamble for front line starters.

I'm just saying let's not pencil him in yet. I'm not a scout, and if some respected scouts are saying they don't think he'll develop one, that is enough to at least make me pause and respect that they know more than I do.

 

Still, all we seem to have is an anonymous report. Was no one willing to put their name to this declaration that Meyer might be a bust?

 

I agree about not penciling him in. As I posted at the time of the trades, the "seashells and balloons" crowd were misguided in their bubbling optimism that the Twins had acquired 2 Aces and a solid back of the rotation guy, when a 50% return rate on pitching prospects is very good and even a little on the high side.

[Mr. Brooks]

Still, all we seem to have is an anonymous report. Was no one willing to put their name to this declaration that Meyer might be a bust?

 

I agree about not penciling him in. As I posted at the time of the trades, the "seashells and balloons" crowd were misguided in their bubbling optimism that the Twins had acquired 2 Aces and a solid back of the rotation guy, when a 50% return rate on pitching prospects is very good and even a little on the high side.

 

The baseball prospectus one I guess you could call "anonymous", though most of these scouting reports are written by "staff", so I don't think its as sinister as you suggest.

But Jason Parks has put his name on the same sentiment on his podcast supposedly.

[Brad Swanson]

The baseball prospectus one I guess you could call "anonymous", though most of these scouting reports are written by "staff", so I don't think its as sinister as you suggest.

But Jason Parks has put his name on the same sentiment on his podcast supposedly.

 

Both Parks and Chris Mellen of BP have tweeted something to this effect. But each admitted they had only seen him a couple times. It seemed to stem from lack of fastball command and a lack of a consistent third pitch.

[jokin]

The baseball prospectus one I guess you could call "anonymous", though most of these scouting reports are written by "staff", so I don't think its as sinister as you suggest.

But Jason Parks has put his name on the same sentiment on his podcast supposedly.

 

I'm not suggesting any sinister motives. It's just that human nature comes into play, publications can potentially increase their credibility by trying to have it both ways with a prospect...all with the chance in the end to claim: "See, I told you so...!"

 

His performance at AA thus far should at the least encourage objective analysts that he still has an excellent shot at becoming a quality front-line starter. Gausman is only one year younger and though a higher-rated prospect, they produced close to the same numbers in their first go through the EL.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not suggesting any sinister motives. It's just that human nature comes into play, publications can potentially increase their credibility by trying to have it both ways with a prospect...all with the chance in the end to claim: "See, I told you so...!"

 

His performance at AA thus far should at the least encourage objective analysts that he still has an excellent shot at becoming a quality front-line starter. Gausman is only one year younger and though a higher-rated prospect, they produced close to the same numbers in their first go through the EL.

 

True, but at the same time it's not just about the stats at AA. You don't need a 3rd pitch to succeed at AA, a good fastball and nasty breaking ball is more than enough there.

 

Similar to college football QB's who put up huge numbers but don't have the tools to play in the NFL.

 

Again, I have no idea, one way or the other. I just thought I'd point out what SOME scouts think before we pencil him in as a future front line starter.

I don't think anyone would claim to know for certain one way or the other right now.

[markos]

The report is on Baseball Prospectus, and it can be found here: Baseball Prospectus | Eyewitness Accounts: May 24, 2013

 

The report was filed by BP scout Chris Mellen based on Meyer's May 5th start.

 

Almost every major prospect guru has said that Meyer's potential as a front-line starter depends on improved command/control and development of a serviceable 3rd pitch. Additionally, they almost all say that if those two things don't develop, he will probably end up as a high-leverage asset in the bullpen because his stuff is so good. This most recent report is different only because this scout decided that Meyer's command and control will never reach the point where he can be an effective starter - I'm sure other scouts have different probabilities. For what it's worth, BP had one of the lowest rankings of Meyer to start the season (#88), where as BA (#59), Law (#61), Sickels (#63), and Mayo (#40) seem a lot more optimistic.

 

Speaking of starting pitcher busts, here is an interesting comparison of Meyer with Perkins at the same age and level:

Meyer: 10.70 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9, 3.10 ERA, 2.63 FIP

Perkins: 10.05 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 3.91 ERA, 3.49 FIP

[jokin]

The report is on Baseball Prospectus, and it can be found here: Baseball Prospectus | Eyewitness Accounts: May 24, 2013

 

The report was filed by BP scout Chris Mellen based on Meyer's May 5th start.

 

Almost every major prospect guru has said that Meyer's potential as a front-line starter depends on improved command/control and development of a serviceable 3rd pitch. Additionally, they almost all say that if those two things don't develop, he will probably end up as a high-leverage asset in the bullpen because his stuff is so good. This most recent report is different only because this scout decided that Meyer's command and control will never reach the point where he can be an effective starter - I'm sure other scouts have different probabilities. For what it's worth, BP had one of the lowest rankings of Meyer to start the season (#88), where as BA (#59), Law (#61), Sickels (#63), and Mayo (#40) seem a lot more optimistic.

 

Speaking of starting pitcher busts, here is an interesting comparison of Meyer with Perkins at the same age and level:

Meyer: 10.70 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9, 3.10 ERA, 2.63 FIP

Perkins: 10.05 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 3.91 ERA, 3.49 FIP

 

Excellent post, markos. I was going to throw KLAW, Sickels and Mayo into the mix, but I didn't have the exact rankings at my fingertips. I look forward to seeing where their adjusted rankings are at the break. The comp is extremely helpful, as well. I guess the Meyer backers for now will have to rely on FIP as the only statistically significant indicator that suggests Meyer is not the next Perkins. I still am convinced that the mechanics-to-height factor determinant in delayed development, can work itself out over time. At the tender age of 23, the development of a halfway decent change-up or splitter for a player with this talent-level, to go with 99MPH stuff, isn't out of the realm of possibility.

[DaveW]

Ugh

[beckmt]

Little pessimistic if you ask me. Revere is being labeled a bust in Philly and Span has helped the Nationals, but you still have to take chances in finding front line starters.

[Mr. Brooks]

Little pessimistic if you ask me. Revere is being labeled a bust in Philly and Span has helped the Nationals, but you still have to take chances in finding front line starters.

 

Oh absolutely. Let me be clear, I am still all for the Meyer trade, even if it never works out. Front line starter potential is worth the risk.

[Mike Sixel]

My post was about trading two starting outfielders, and getting Worley, May, and Meyer in return. Right, that does not look good. I was all for the trade in principle, but states that Ryan needs to be judged on how it turns out. This year, given Worleys performance, and the fact both minor league guys will probably not be up this year, the trade looks bad. I hope next year that reverses. Bit given their track record lately, I am not holding my breath.

[Mr. Brooks]

My post was about trading two starting outfielders, and getting Worley, May, and Meyer in return. Right, that does not look good. I was all for the trade in principle, but states that Ryan needs to be judged on how it turns out. This year, given Worleys performance, and the fact both minor league guys will probably not be up this year, the trade looks bad. I hope next year that reverses. Bit given their track record lately, I am not holding my breath.

 

I think that is pretty well stated. I'm probably in the same boat.

I have higher hopes for Meyer than May.

I will still think the Span/Meyer trade was the right move even if it doesnt work out, simply because of the upside.

But, I will be more results based on the Worley/May deal because I wasn't impressed with either of their upside.