The 2012 "Complain About Gardy" Thread

[powrwrap]

From an "x's and o's" standpoint, from the time the lineup card is written until the end of the game, there isnt probably 2 wins difference between the decisions the AL manager of the year makes and what the worst record manager in rookie ball makes. All baseball guys make the same decisions and most of them if not meaningless are all but. Take out pitching changes and every other in-game decision an AL manager makes is basically window dressing.

You must not pay attention to Jim Leyland's or Ozzie Guillen's bonehead moves. I've attended games that Guillen has lost for the Sox.

[BHtwins]

You must not pay attention to Jim Leyland's or Ozzie Guillen's bonehead moves. I've attended games that Guillen has lost for the Sox.

and at the end of 162 games sans pitching moves i doubt it made 2 games one way or the other in the final season outcome. Almost all decisions whether its to bunt, or pinch hit or steal or hit and run are dumb or meaningless or both. You make a boneheaded decision and you lose a game you woulda lost anyway. You make a crazy like a fox move and win a game you probably woulda won anyway. Thats the reality.

[tobynotjason]

Good call luckylager. The 100 pitch limit IS a great thing to bring up. Depending on how his performance in 2011 ended up, Gardenhire was poised to be around #2 ALL-TIME in terms of "quickest hooks" on his starting pitcher among managers with more than 10 seasons (compared to contemporaries). He's a slave to the pitch count to the point of comedy. The dude credited with bringing them into vogue points to ironclad pitch count rules like Gardenhire's as pretty much the opposite of what he recommended when he did the research that initially prompted clubs to pay some attention to pitch counts.

 

While it's eminently hateable that he's also a slave to the save rule, given that every other manager in baseball is just as bad it doesn't make me hate him nearly as much as the bunting-by-numbers, lineup-by-positions and pitch count do.

[powrwrap]

and at the end of 162 games sans pitching moves i doubt it made 2 games one way or the other in the final season outcome. Almost all decisions whether its to bunt, or pinch hit or steal or hit and run are dumb or meaningless or both. You make a boneheaded decision and you lose a game you woulda lost anyway. You make a crazy like a fox move and win a game you probably woulda won anyway. Thats the reality.

So when Joe Maddon had Dan Johnson--9 for 90 that year--pinch hit against the Yankees in the bottom of the ninth last Sep 29th, with 2 outs, that was a game the Rays woulda won anyway?

 

Your assertion that any bunt, pinch hit, steal, or hit and run are dumb and meaningless is breathtaking. I take it you don't pay too much attention to the strategy of baseball.

[Seth Stohs]

I think he tends to get thrown out a little too often. I don't like how he tends to be tougher on younger (or certain) players.

 

 

Regarding the bunting thing... Gardy hates sac-bunting early in games. Remember when Orlando Hudson came over and wanted to sac bunt in the first inning if Span got on base? Gardy pretty much said, "This is the AL. We don't do that here."

 

I also believe fully that a manager cannot always go by the book... I like the Gardy occasionally thinks outside the box. You have to if you ever want the element of surprise. So, it's rare that I'll blame a manager for much. Players play.

[Seth Stohs]

So when Joe Maddon had Dan Johnson--9 for 90 that year--pinch hit against the Yankees in the bottom of the ninth last Sep 29th, with 2 outs, that was a game the Rays woulda won anyway?

I generally agree that the manager doesn't have a huge impact on 98% of games... but powrwrap, your example is why this game is great, and my point about a manager going against the book at times. pinch-hitting Johnson there... if Gardy did that, he'd get ripped because most times, it's not going to work. Johnson (the player) came through, and Maddon looks like a genius. (Don't get me wrong, I think that Maddon is one of the top managers in baseball.)

[one_eyed_jack]

I've never seen a manager do so much with so little, yet still get bashed incessantly by the fan base for not doing more.

 

Yes, I get it, the lack of postseason success is frustrating. But the key ingredient to winning in October is starting pitching. When you're forced to trot out the likes of Boof Bonser and Brian Duensing as playoff starters, your chances of success are pretty slim. Take your top run producer out of the lineup a la Morneau in '09 and '10, and you can pretty much forget it.

 

Look at Bruce Bochy's track record before winning the Series with the Giants. Not very impressive, is it? Did he finally figure it out after a decade-and-a-half? Or do ya think maybe having a staff with Lincecum and a few other guys who would have be aces on a lot of teams made a difference?

 

6 division titles in 9 years is no small feat, folks. Especially considering the low payroll and injury problems he had to deal with for a lot of those years. Twins fans always point to Kelly, but though he won 2 rings, the team was not consistently competitive under him. He managed the Twins for 15 full seasons. They finished higher than 4th in the division in only 5 of them. His career winning percentage? .478.

 

Now Gardy, like many of his players, had a down year last year and needs to bounce back. I, for one, hope and think that he can. We'll see starting Friday - bring it on!

[BHtwins]

So when Joe Maddon had Dan Johnson--9 for 90 that year--pinch hit against the Yankees in the bottom of the ninth last Sep 29th, with 2 outs, that was a game the Rays woulda won anyway?

 

.

Nope. Thats not what Im saying at all. I'm saying it was dumb luck not managerial prowess. I dont understand the whole idea that baseball "strategy" is sacred.

 

What I am saying is that true game-changing managerial opportunities dont happen that often and the difference between making a good decision, a bad decision, a lucky decision or doing nothing at all is the difference between 2 games over .500 or 2 games under .500 at the end of the year. I would guess thats at the extremes.

[Montecore]

Like to see him go. That abysmal 20-65 record against the Yanks, and the woeful playoff success with very talented teams is just too much. Tom Kelly, bless his hard heart could manage. Gardenhire can't.

[powrwrap]

What I am saying is that true game-changing managerial opportunities dont happen that often and the difference between making a good decision, a bad decision, a lucky decision or doing nothing at all is the difference between 2 games over .500 or 2 games under .500 at the end of the year. I would guess thats at the extremes.

A well timed hit-and-run can win a game and happens many times during the season. Yes, players have to execute, but that is not luck. I dispute your assertion that game-changing managerial decisions amount to 2 games a year. Simply repositioning the defense for particular batters and calling pitches to augment that defense changes the outcomes of games. Intentionally walking a batter and then getting a subsequent double play is good managing in my book. I guess you would call that lucky. I think you are poo-poohing (or aren't aware) of a whole lot of stuff going on behind the scenes.

[It's The Trees.]

at the major league level, a manager's biggest influence on the team might not be strategy, but managing ego's.

[shawntheroad]

My biggest gripe, giving away the #2 spot. You don't have to have a little guy that can bunt hitting #2. You don't! The #2 guy should also be able to get on base and have some gap power.

[BHtwins]

Im sorry that you simply dont understand. I certainly didnt intend to stir the pot. Perhaps I explained badly but regardless you're way overstating the importance of single plays in a 27 out/ 9 inning game and 162 game season

 

If the Johnson pinch hit opportunity comes 4000 times. The statistical reality is if Maddon does nothing 1000 times the Rays lose 960 times. If Maddon pinch hits Johnson 1000 times the Rays lose 958 times. If Maddon pinch hits any other available hitter on his roster 1000 times the Rays lose 960 times. If Maddon pinch hits Babe Ruth 1000 times the Rays lose 940 times. That it happened doesnt make Maddon a managerial genius, it makes him mostly lucky and kinda smart.

 

Everything else in your post is along the same lines. Defensive shifts, for example, are largely intuitive to the fielder anyway and I doubt it has any real affect that unique to the manager. I also cant believe playing every batter all season straight up would be worth more then a handful runs over an entire season, I'd say its effect is almost nil. Is it worth doing.....sure....but to say it turns a .500 team to a contender is simply not true.

 

Same for hit and runs. Over the course of the season it probably has a net negative effect on runs scored unless you have a rosterful of Joe Mauers that GIDP a lot and can make contact on demand. In other words, better off sitting on your hands. Is it fun to watch sometimes....well sure.

 

I guess more then anything the meaning of the post is that what happens between the games is a lot more important then what happens from the first pitch to the last out.

[Shane Wahl]

My biggest problem involves the fundamental fact that you need your best OBP guys to be the top batters in your lineup. I'll be fine with Carroll this year, but Joe Mauer is the exemplar of a number two hitter (except for speed) and he should have been in that role for the past 6 seasons, at least. Seeing some of the lineups involving Tolbert, Plouffe, Punto, etc. batting second have sent me over the edge.

[Ultima Ratio]

Are there better coaches than Gardy, especially coaching in the playoffs? Yes. Are there worse MLB coaches? Yes. I'm ambivalent but lean towards a favorable view of Gardy. Yet, I share the frustrations that so many of you have articulated above. What peeves me most about Gardy is his intentionally vague, evasive and meaningless comments. It does make one wonder if one knows the game very well when one cannot speak intelligibly about player performance et al. Yet, I do think he's gotten a lot out of the players he's had (for the most part).

[Fanatic Jack]

@_2244

 

1. Paul Molitor

 

2. Terry Francona

 

3. Joe Madden

 

4. Jim Leyland

 

5. Mike Scosica

 

6. Clint Hurdle

 

7. Ozzie Gullen

 

8. Jake Mauer

 

9. You

 

10. Seth Stohs

 

11. John Bonnes

 

12. Nick Nelson

 

13. Parker Hageman

 

14. Kirsten Brown

 

The list is like the energizer bunny and keeps going and going and going.

[denarded]

I've never seen a manager do so much with so little, yet still get bashed incessantly by the fan base for not doing more.

 

I agree with your entire post. I would rather have a team that consistently has a chance to go to the post season, then wait through a decade to get a team that is ws caliber. Anything can happen in the post season. Gardy gets it done. what happens in a 5 game series isn't fully on the manager.

[diehardtwinsfan]

From an "x's and o's" standpoint, from the time the lineup card is written until the end of the game, there isnt probably 2 wins difference between the decisions the AL manager of the year makes and what the worst record manager in rookie ball makes. All baseball guys make the same decisions and most of them if not meaningless are all but.

 

Take out pitching changes and every other in-game decision an AL manager makes is basically window dressing.

 

I put baseball managers in the same category as college football coaches. Meaning, they are basically recruiters and motivators mostly.

 

Saying that, I'd suspect Gardy is probably a relatively good motivator given his career record. Which is a good thing because his batting orders and line-up cards are probably the single biggest weak point he has and has probably cost him at least one division title.

 

So most annoying thing. Someone needs to tell Gardy that he doesnt have to bat a speedy outfielder or a middle fielder 1 or 2. There is no rule in baseball that would prevent him from batting someone like....say a catcher...with a really high OBP in the number 2 slot and then just leave him there all season long. Number 2 most annoying He is obsessed with the potential for an opposing platoon advantage when he sets his batting order but all but oblivious when he actually writes the line-up card

This sounds great until you watch a game and see a manager make a move that you and everyone else watching the game simultaneously scratches their heads... and it predictably fails (see multiple moves in ALDS 2004 Game 2 as prime examples). Now I'm not one to say that the right moves would have for certain won that game, as we cannot know, but what Gardenhire did in that game (and in many others) is not put the team in the best position to win the game.

 

This is probably the biggest area that most people get frustrated about Gardy. He doesn't put his team in the best position to win games far more often than we'd like, and to make it worse, he overmanages games against the AL east because of whatever inferiority complex he has. The other problem is that I see no learning going on. The Twins have been blessed to have 2 every day players for a few years now that can OBP around .400 if things are going well. He leads off with Span, and then drops a black hole in the number 2 spot before Mauer. The one time Mauer did bat second, we were scoring somewhere between 5 and 6 runs a game, yet Gardenhire inexplicably stopped doing it. The same can be said for his treatment of younger players/favorites, pitch counts, the pen, etc.

 

I do realize that some of these traits tend to lead to successes in other areas (like the club house motiviation issues that we in the sabermetric world tend to denigrate), but I'd think at one point, he'd adjust his game just a bit....

 

That said, I'm not sure I agree that it's only worth a game or two... If everyone is making the same mistakes, it's only a matter of time until a manager rises to the top and wins an extra 6 games due to good coaching...

[TwinsFanLV]

My biggest problem involves the fundamental fact that you need your best OBP guys to be the top batters in your lineup. I'll be fine with Carroll this year, but Joe Mauer is the exemplar of a number two hitter (except for speed) and he should have been in that role for the past 6 seasons, at least. Seeing some of the lineups involving Tolbert, Plouffe, Punto, etc. batting second have sent me over the edge.

Thank you! Mauer should bat #2! His bat is more valuable than his defense. I would love to see him in the 2 hole 162 times this year, regardless of what position he plays.

[powrwrap]

Im sorry that you simply dont understand. I certainly didnt intend to stir the pot. Perhaps I explained badly but regardless you're way overstating the importance of single plays in a 27 out/ 9 inning game and 162 game season

 

I understand you perfectly. I just think you are wrong. Single plays frequently are the deciding factor in games. Certainly more often than two times a season.

 

Everything else in your post is along the same lines. Defensive shifts, for example, are largely intuitive to the fielder anyway and I doubt it has any real affect that unique to the manager. I also cant believe playing every batter all season straight up would be worth more then a handful runs over an entire season, I'd say its effect is almost nil. Is it worth doing.....sure....but to say it turns a .500 team to a contender is simply not true.

 

I didn't say the effect was to turn a .500 team into a contender. I said it was worth more than +/- 2 games a season.

 

I guess more then anything the meaning of the post is that what happens between the games is a lot more important then what happens from the first pitch to the last out.

 

This is a good point. I remember last year when Leyland started catcher Alex Avila at 3B in an interleague game. Of course he made an error. Or when he overused both his set up man and closer last October and both were unavailable going into Game 5 of the ALCS.

[Guest @_2244]

So, by our account Gardy should employ the following to refine his managerial game:

 

No sac bunts with 1 out (can't say that I've ever seen a position player do this)

 

No more small ball (because there are so many power hitters throughout the lineup)

 

Quit leaving pitchers in games too long, yank them sooner

 

Sac bunt only in the 8th or 9th inning of a one run game

 

Leave pitchers in the game longer, lose the quick hook

 

No more "B Squad" lineups on day games after night games

 

Call out all players publicly at the same rate as he does Valencia, for example (yeah, treat players the same regardless of their makeup and how they may respond to different tactics. Sounds like a great idea!)

 

Throw all conventional baseball wisdom out the door "for a while," become less predictable, employ more trickeration. Forget about executing basic strategic baseball plays properly. Surprise and subterfuge is the way to go!

 

Quit managing for the sake of pitchers stats. Some think Gardy bases moves on getting his starter a win or reliever a save instead of what's actually best for the team, regardless of which Twin pitcher may get their stats padded. (I have no words for this one)

 

Reduce the number of times he gets ejected over the course of the season (I would agree with this one, though I'm sure some here take great satisfaction when the evil-doing manager gets removed from the game)

 

A 56 year old dude with limited coaching experience who has turned down countless opportunities to coach in the bigs should be the Twins manager.

 

Mauer should bat second in the order

 

This thread has also taught me that there's really no such thing as "managerial prowess," and that it's much closer to "dumb luck." Stuff is gonna happen in a baseball game regardless, and if any strategy is involved it really doesn't have any meaningful effect.

 

Anybody have a pipeline to the home team manager's office at Target Field? Surely we can't sit on this cutting edge info without relaying it to the man in charge. I'm sure Gardy and the entire Twins organization would be thankful.

[whydidnt]

Apparently there are some Twins fans that are so brain washed that they believe Gardenhire is perfect and there is nothing to criticize him about. I guess I missed all of those World Series parades he led. First, the talk of him doing so much with so little is a bunch of BS. He's had two MVPs on his teams and one of the best closers of the era to start with, not to mention the AL Central has been pretty weak over the last decade and the Twins took advantage of that.

 

So, having said all this to try and create a little reality...I think Gardenhire is a good manager, he's certainly not infallible though. I'm not calling for his job, just think some could recognize that, just like everyone else, he's not perfect. He does a pretty good job motivating the players and managing their egos.

 

The one thing I'd change is his fascination with scrappy middle infielders that are in his mould. It seems he has always overvalued these guys when it comes to playing time and also lineup positioning. Don't forget it was Gardenhire's desire for "more speed and athleticism" up the middle that was one of the factors in the Twins giving up on Hardy and going after Nishi.

[Boom Boom]

Game 1 of the 2010 ALDS, bottom of the 1st. Span singles to lead off, and then Hudson sacrifices (!!!!!) him to 2nd. Rally dead. I don't care if Gardy had talked to Hudson previously about not sac bunting early in the game, that kind of **** shouldn't happen.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

..........

[Shane Wahl]

I'm surprised no one has talked about his pen management... leave your guy out there for an inning or two, not to throw 5 pitches to 1 batter. The pen would be much better off for that long term.

There was an analysis by Baseball Prospectus or someone near the beginning of last year, I believe, that made a good case for Gardenhire being about the best bullpen manager in baseball given the kind of average pitchers he has had at his disposal. Last year was unusual.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

So simple that dozens--hundreds even--of major league managers can't learn to manage the bullpen to your satisfaction.

 

One might draw the conclusion that it's not quite so simple as you think from the comfort of your living room chair.

So you support the idea that a manager should blindly pitch his best reliever in the 9th inning regardless of earlier, higher leverage situations? That's some sound logic there buddy. It's cool how you're a douche both here and on BYTO though. The internet needs less logical thinkers.

[gunnarthor]

So you support the idea that a manager should blindly pitch his best reliever in the 9th inning regardless of earlier, higher leverage situations? That's some sound logic there buddy. It's cool how you're a douche both here and on BYTO though. The internet needs less logical thinkers.

It's not entirely fair to say that Gardy does that. In 02, Everyday Eddie is our closer, our best relief pitchers are probably Romero, Santana and Hawkins. In 03, it's still Eddie but Rincon, Santana and Hawkins are probably the better arms. 04-05, Nathan is probably the best bullpen arm but Rincon is dominating, too. 06, Nathan's clearly the best arm but that's a really good bullpen and Reyes was death to lefties. Same in 07 but Neshek breaks out. 08 it's only Nathan. 09 probably the same but Mijares was a revelation down the stretch. Then you start the post-injury Nathan era where Rauch, Capps and Nathan were all closers at one time or another but the best bullpen arms were probably, at different points, Crain, Guerrier, Perkins and Duensing.

 

So, yeah, Gardy used Nathan to slam the door on games but he's also used some really good pitchers in the 7th and 8th inning and gotten some great things out of guys like Reyes as well. And, while Nathan is great, I'm not convinced that he'd put up his closer numbers if he was pitching as a set up guy.

[Guest USAFChief]

So you support the idea that a manager should blindly pitch his best reliever in the 9th inning regardless of earlier, higher leverage situations? That's some sound logic there buddy. It's cool how you're a douche both here and on BYTO though. The internet needs less logical thinkers.

i support the idea that figuring out just when those high leverage situations might occur is a lot easier on the Internet than it is in practice. Relievers don't have on/off switches. They need time to warm up, and once warmed up, you generally want to use them. So unless you're advocating having your "best reliever" warmed and ready to from the middle of every close game, your theory isn't practical.

 

Perhaps that helps explain why MLB managers--pretty much to a man--have found a somewhat similar but more workable method. They reserve their best available relievers for winnable games but schedule their usage rather than reacting after the fact, hoping to manage "leverage" as best they can while accepting the reality that waiting until they're absolutely sure of when might be the best time to use a given reliever isn't practical.

 

All things equal, the (available) relievers the manager trusts most pitch the end of winnable games, while the bottom of the pen gets the innings of games that are decided. All things are never equal, so health and overuse can sometimes alter that, but that's an issue no matter how you set up your pen.

 

I understand it's become internet meme to think its as easy as dropping your best reliever out of the sky into whatever situation proves later to have been the "highest leverage." I don't believe in that meme. Can you let us know now when you would use Capps during the opener Friday?

 

Logic and name calling don't go together either, BTW.

[Guest @_2244]

Well said, Chief.

[jmlease1]

We'll see how much complaining I do about Gardy this year. It may end up being less. My biggest problems with him have been: playing no-hit guys because "they could really pick it" even when their total failures as offensive players vastly outweighed any defensive contribution, playing crappy veterans when it was clear that there wouldn't be an improvement from them while rookies with some promise sat on the bench/rotted in AAA, failing to make out a batting order that played to his team's strengths and downplayed their weaknesses, and playing favorites with players. (I've also been of the opinion that he had significant influence on personnel moves during Billy Smith's tenure and not to the good, but YMMV)

 

This season complaints 1 & 2 seem to be mitigated already by the roster. Our no-hope 3rd catcher Butera has been sent down, and there aren't any veterans on this roster likely to be washed except for possibly Marquis, and he's slotted into a relatively minor role. The batting order remains a concern; Gardy still seems bound and determined to bat LHs together more than seems to make sense, but at least he's got a SS whose OBP makes sense for him to hit in the 2-hole, since we know a middle infielder will hit there, regardless of his ability. The playing favorites issue will bear watching. I'm fine with Span being our starting CF alongside Willingham & Doumit...but when revere was a serious contender to start in the OF, I hated the idea that Revere was going to primarily play LF because Span "likes it better in CF".

 

We'll see how this works out. I'm not convinced Gardy is a great manager. I'm willing to be convinced he's not terrible. But I think he's got some weaknesses and hasn't shone as a game-manager.