What could have been from the 2012 draft

[Shane Wahl]

I am starting this thread for people to look up the 2012 draft round by round and judge the 2012 draft in hindsight and compare players taken later in rounds and compare them to who the Twins actually took. It's rather jerkish, but that's OK.

 

Let me start with one of the two 2012 Purdue players who I loved last year. Now, catcher Kevin Plawecki was selected by the Mets at a spot higher than even I had imagined and the Twins pick before that was Berrios. So I have no problem there. Plawecki is dominating A ball this year with a 1.042 OPS, 19 doubles, 5 homers, and a 16/20 BB/K rate. I made a claim that Plawecki would end up being better than Zunino. That may have been wrong, but he is surely holding more than his own right now.

 

The real complaint comes in the 9th round of last year's draft. The Twins drafted LJ Mazilli at 280 and he didn't sign. Looking back, it was VERY predictable that he wouldn't sign at that spot in the draft. Seven picks later the Marlins selected Purdue's Nick Wittgren.

 

Between low-A and high-A in 2012 and 2013, Wittgren has pitched 54 and 2/3 innings. He has 74 strikeouts, an ERA of 0.99, only 9 walks, and a WHIP of 0.933. He is a dominant reliever and it is unfortunate that the Twins didn't see this while they were so reliever-crazy last year. Wittgren will be closing for the Marlins within 3 years.

[jokin]

Not complaining about getting Buxton- at all- but how about "what could have been" by drafting Kevin Gausman, who debuts for the Orioles tonight. Or drafting Kevin Appel and getting two high picks this year instead of just one?

[Shane Wahl]

Gausman is a wonder. I am curious to see how the rest of 2013 goes for him. He and Kyle Zimmer were the two guys I wanted. Significantly different results for those two thus far.

[mcrow]

Analysing MLB drafts are pretty hard and even pointless if not looking back several years.

 

MLB teams are lucky if they draft 5 players each year that end up in the majors at some point. Maybe 1 of those becomes a player that spends more than a few years in the majors. Maybe every 4-5 years you draft a player that is an all-star type of player at some point.

[jokin]

You boldy projected on Wittgren, I concur that was a major Twins miss. But how about Plawecki and his time frame to the bigs? I'm probably as high on Berrios as you, but a legit catching prospect would sure have been nice to see, too.

[bird]

Virtually every team will have had "major misses" in every draft, so while this can be an entertaining exercise, it's certainly not even remotely instructive in my opinion. KLAW was asked to "redraft" 2012. He had Buxton #1 and Gausman #4. But frankly, that doesn't tell us that the Twins are brilliant. Everyone is dealing with imperfect information.

[Twins Twerp]

I can't wait for the June 11th thread to redraft the 2013 draft.

[ThePuck]

I remember the year Pedroia was drafted. I followed the Pac-10 quite closely at that time and still do to a lesser degree. I had seen him play quite a bit and I was so wanting the Twins to draft him all six times they passed on him. I couldn't believe we didn't get him with all those opportunities. I was so ticked off.

 

Our first pick that year, Trevor Plouffe.

[Shane Wahl]

Ah, this was not meant to be a serious analysis of the damn draft, it was meant to just point out how players who could have been drafted have performed. WOW.

 

Anyway, The Puck, you are right about that year and Pedroia. Even when Pedroia was verging on the majors, though, I didn't think there was any expectation for him to be this kind of offensive player. I believe that the defense was his projected best part of his game.

 

Jokin, it's the Mets so WHO KNOWS? I can't imagine him not seeing AA this year, so that could mean all sorts of things for next year.

 

Wittgren has improved on those numbers from just a few days ago.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Keep in mind that most other teams missed on these guys too. If a draft returns 2 ML players, it's generally considered to be a decent draft... Think about that... Lots of these guys will fail.

[Riverbrian]

In the name of fun... From all accounts Buxton has been fantastic thus far and a great selection.

 

Last year I was hoping for a College Pitcher with the first pick... Only because I was scared to death of the pitching depth at the time. I figured a College Pitcher would arrive and provide something we needed bad quicker... I hadn't seen any of them so I wasn't praying for Gausman over Zimmer or vice versa but I really did want a college arm.

 

Reading Boxscores this year from Cedar Rapids has put my mind at ease. Buxton looks like an amazing pick so far. I really can't argue with it all.

 

Besides Gausman... The only player that I have seen play with my eyes to this point is Wacha and he blew me away... That guy has stuff on top of stuff. If anybody gets a chance to watch him. Do it... This kid is for real.

 

In hindsight... I really wish there was way that we could have drafted Wacha. Our slots and his draft position didn't really match though.

[Shane Wahl]

Wacha's strikeout numbers plummeted though. It's a pretty frightening drop, actually. He had 40 Ks in 21 innings last year and has 34 in over 52 this year.

 

By the way to most of the rest of, my first example was of a non-signee, and a fairly predictable one at that. That's just not the same as comparing player to player (and pooh-poohing that).

[Mr. Brooks]

Obviously it's too early to know anything this soon, but based on what we know so far, there isn't a player in last year's or this year's draft class that I would take over Buxton.

People that I respect a ton in the industry have used superlatives that I've never heard before, about any prospect.

Jim Callis recently said his upside could be a combination of Harper and Trout.

The O's can have the MLB ready guy, I'll take that upside all day, even if it flames out.

[drjim]

Not complaining about getting Buxton- at all- but how about "what could have been" by drafting Kevin Gausman, who debuts for the Orioles tonight. Or drafting Kevin Appel and getting two high picks this year instead of just one?

 

Since Gausman and Buxton are better than anyone in this draft, not signing someone last year would have been a true fiasco. Even Kevin Appel!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Who is Kevin Appel?

[gunnarthor]

Changing the subject just slightly, Joe Posnanski wrote a really fun article on his old blog about hitting perfectly in one draft. He used the 99 draft and wondered what would have happened if the Royals hit on their pick from every round. So, in the 3rd round they took Morneau instead of whoever they took. And in the 10th they took Pujols, etc. Anyway, it was a pretty good team. Couldn't find the link though.

[old nurse]

Is that sort of like what would be if in 2007 the Twins tok Jordan or Stanton first round, Matt Harvey second, Darwin Barney third, Ben Revere in the fourth, Matt Moore in the fifth, Greg Holland in the sixth, Brandon Belt in the seventh, Josh Collmenter in the eighth.

[big dog]

The baseball draft really is fascinating, with the top-pick busts and the not-too-infrequent late picks who turn out to be very good players. Then you've got the frequent college pitchers who end up with arm trouble. Quite a crapshoot. I would dislike Pedroia a lot less if he were a Twin, that's for sure.