Business of Baseball: Gibson, Hicks, Arcia

[Twins Twerp]

Can Hicks stay up if he stays around .150 all year? Honest question?

[cmathewson]

I hadn't heard that. Last year it was early June still... but I'm not sure.

 

I don't think it's a hard date. It's on a percentage basis. I believe the player needs to be in the top 20% of his rookie class. If it's a particularly light year for rookies, it might go to July.

[Twins Twerp]

A: are you sure it is best for the team?

B: how is this best for him, and how do you know?

C: it is true, I am not a true, good, right kind of, fan....

Wasn't trolling, just saying, if they kept Gibby down for monetary reasons, why did they not keep Hicks and Arcia down for the same reasons? I don't know what is best for the team but the "Twins way" of cautiously moving prospects up is the right way to go. Gibson more than likely will get the starting nod so the point is mute. If it was "all about the money," they would wait until after he would be eligible for super 2. Also I love calling out the Yankees because the Bronx sux, it smells like piss, and YES network can **** ** **** (insert your own expletives!)

[Mike Sixel]

ya, Baltimore totally blew calling up Machado. And whatever LA and Wash were thinking with Trout and harper....idiots. I don't know if we know the Twins way works or not. The evidence the last 10 years or so would say "not".

 

moot, btw.

[jokin]

Gibson has not pitched well enough to deserve a promotion until the last week or so. His first complete game was against the worst hitting team in all of the minors (and possibly some college teams). This last game was the real deal. But if he comes out with a clunker on Thursday, he does not warrant a call up. All these people talking about saving money is redonk. Why even cheer for the Twins, move to New York, buy some pinstripes, and spend 500 dollars for an upper deck ticket if you want your team to spend 800 million dollars/year. They are not doing a disservice to Gibby by keeping him down, they are doing what is best for the team and him.

 

Gibson went 9 innings again, the last time he did that they gave him an extra day's rest. Plus you have DeVries now back, and a Red Wings off-day on Wednesday. That would put him back until Saturday or even Sunday, unless the Twins call him up for Friday night. DeVries pitches tonight, Deduno tomorrow, Walters pitched Saturday night.

 

How about your AA rostered starters? Guess who pitched on Sunday? The odds are probably 50-50 that it sounds like it will be BJ Hermsen Coming Out Party this coming Friday.....

[jokin]

Originally Posted by Riverbrian Any toleration of ERA's over 6 is intolerable. Yes we need them to find themselves... But we can't wait much longer. These decisions are hard.

 

 

 

I only disagree in the fact that this number should be lowered to 5.

 

Wait a minute, I thought the "Correia Standard for Acceptable Suckitude" was firmly established this spring on this very site:

 

"4-5 runs over 5-6 innings at least gives us a chance..."

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I read the projected cutoff *this season* for Super-2 status is 2.119 days. If Kyle Gibson came up (instead of Thielbar) and never went back down, he'd complete the 2015 season with 2.133 days. So Seth is right on when he says 2 weeks, but the cut-off will fluctuate in the next two-plus years.

 

This, from MLBTR, explains why the cutoff would actually move up, instead of back.

A player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class. The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two percentage from 17% to 22%.

 

BTW - Worley is in line to have 2.152 days of service at the end of the year. He, Plouffe and Butera (for now) will all be Super-2s.

[jokin]

ya, Baltimore totally blew calling up Machado. And whatever LA and Wash were thinking with Trout and harper....idiots. I don't know if we know the Twins way works or not. The evidence the last 10 years or so would say "not".

 

moot, btw.

 

Hey, maybe he was just making a "quiet" point?

[jokin]

 

BTW - Worley is in line to have 2.152 days of service at the end of the year. He, Plouffe and Butera (for now) will all be Super-2s.

 

I think you might want to add the "(for now)" qualifier for Worley, as well.

[Shane Wahl]

This is all over the place! Is the % issue correct? I think it is something like that for Super-2, but I am confused.

 

In any event:

 

The Twins somehow don't care about money, here. Or something. Gibson is not "stuck" in AAA (really, he's been good, but with some shaky starts here and there) because of money. No way. I imagine they may want to see him string along a number of good starts in row before they get all Hendriks on him (not comparing the two strictly, but you get the idea). I am just pissed about the innings limit that he is undoubtedly on and IF the Twins are actually someone going to get back in the swing of things (why are so many people freaking out over this last series???), it would suck to see Gibson be the best Twins pitcher in June, July, and August and then they have to shut him down.

 

I don't really care about his service time, though. Hicks and Arcia can BOTH use time in AAA. There now seems to be a reasonable replacement for both: Antoan Richardson to get a shot leading off (I know he is playing out of his mind, but I kinda like giving a guy who is likely going to know that THIS IS HIS LAST CHANCE to play in the majors that chance). He is the only sensible leadoff possibility with good OBP in the minors this year and excellent speed.

 

With regard to Arcia, Chris Colabello works. Arcia was getting plenty of DH time, Colabello doesn't need to play every day anyway. He is also could be useful as a starter against hectic lefties to give Morneau and Parmelee (with Ramirez) a non-start and perhaps a PH opportunity later on.

 

Doing this can also turn into a valid competition between Colabello and Ramirez as bench bats during the AAA time for Hicks and Arcia. You all might look at Ramirez as sucky, but when he was primarily NOT starting (three out of his last games have been as a starter) he did his job well enough. It would be a bit prickish to just send him down without actually losing his role.

[jokin]

This is all over the place! Is the % issue correct? I think it is something like that for Super-2, but I am confused.

 

In any event:

 

The Twins somehow don't care about money, here. Or something. Gibson is not "stuck" in AAA (really, he's been good, but with some shaky starts here and there) because of money. No way. I imagine they may want to see him string along a number of good starts in row before they get all Hendriks on him (not comparing the two strictly, but you get the idea). I am just pissed about the innings limit that he is undoubtedly on and IF the Twins are actually someone going to get back in the swing of things (why are so many people freaking out over this last series???), it would suck to see Gibson be the best Twins pitcher in June, July, and August and then they have to shut him down.

 

I don't really care about his service time, though. Hicks and Arcia can BOTH use time in AAA. There now seems to be a reasonable replacement for both: Antoan Richardson to get a shot leading off (I know he is playing out of his mind, but I kinda like giving a guy who is likely going to know that THIS IS HIS LAST CHANCE to play in the majors that chance). He is the only sensible leadoff possibility with good OBP in the minors this year and excellent speed.

 

With regard to Arcia, Chris Colabello works. Arcia was getting plenty of DH time, Colabello doesn't need to play every day anyway. He is also could be useful as a starter against hectic lefties to give Morneau and Parmelee (with Ramirez) a non-start and perhaps a PH opportunity later on.

 

Doing this can also turn into a valid competition between Colabello and Ramirez as bench bats during the AAA time for Hicks and Arcia. You all might look at Ramirez as sucky, but when he was primarily NOT starting (three out of his last games have been as a starter) he did his job well enough. It would be a bit prickish to just send him down without actually losing his role.

 

And if sent down, the Twins would be short a Spanish translator?

 

But seriously, doesn't Ramirez have to clear waivers to be sent down?

 

Regarding the last series/homestand.....I think the abounding negative vibe was correlated with a Twins performance that was uncomfortably reminiscent of the bad times of 2011 and 2012. At times it looked like every aspect of their game was coming unraveled. On Sunday, the two muffed fly balls, one for a HR, coupled with the multiple strikeouts with both RISP and bases loaded were certainly disconcerting omens of a possible extended collapse....we've all been there the last couple of years.

[Shane Wahl]

Yes, Ramirez would have to clear waivers. But that would already mean that the Twins had found Colabello as a replacement (not with the CF nonsense, obviously).

[Kwak]

Reality is setting in, but some are concerned with whether to place the fine china at dinner on the Titanic, or just use the the everyday porcelain. It's only May!--and still 3/4 of the season remains.

My guess is that Ryan has directed his scouts to scour BB to find who he can sign next year for under $3MM and for only 1 year to complete the rotation. Any guess?

[Guest USAFChief]

It disgusts me to think the Twins, at $40M under budget, no money to speak of on the books for the forseeable future, an extra $25M per year in TV revenue starting in 2014, and consecuve near-100 loss seasons in the books and a pretty good shot at a third one ongoing, would even consider making decisions that even appear to be based on money or service time.

[jorgenswest]

The a Twins should not worry about the super 2. It only is money with an extra year of arbitration.

 

They should be concerned about a 21-23 year old and a year of control. It is more than simply money. It makes the player more valuable all around. He is a more valuable trade commodity. The Twins have more leverage in offering a long term contract. I would send a Hicks down and have him put up a good month in AAA before returning as soon as Thomas is healthy or they can even give Richardson time. He is not a prospect but he probably is close enough to a Mastroianni.

 

They have should no concern about any 25 year old and beginning service time. They will have control of that player through their prime.

[drjim]

It disgusts me to think the Twins, at $40M under budget, no money to speak of on the books for the forseeable future, an extra $25M per year in TV revenue starting in 2014, and consecuve near-100 loss seasons in the books and a pretty good shot at a third one ongoing, would even consider making decisions that even appear to be based on money or service time.

 

I agree with this completely.

[Kwak]

There is no need to be concerned about service time for average (and below average) performers--these guys exist in abundance.

[Shane Wahl]

The a Twins should not worry about the super 2. It only is money with an extra year of arbitration.

 

They should be concerned about a 21-23 year old and a year of control. It is more than simply money. It makes the player more valuable all around. He is a more valuable trade commodity. The Twins have more leverage in offering a long term contract. I would send a Hicks down and have him put up a good month in AAA before returning as soon as Thomas is healthy or they can even give Richardson time. He is not a prospect but he probably is close enough to a Mastroianni.

 

They have should no concern about any 25 year old and beginning service time. They will have control of that player through their prime.

 

 

Boom. Exactly.

[Brad Swanson]

In a way, I understand the desire to send Hicks and Arcia to AAA for "seasoning" and giving older AAA veterans opportunities that they have earned through good play.

 

However, if the Twins send Hicks to AAA and call up Thomas, what are they really going to learn about either player? Hicks goes to Rochester, plays well and comes back to the Twins. Now what? How does that prove he can play at MLB level? Clete Thomas is Clete Thomas. He has no future in this organization. He may "deserve" a promotion but he isn't going to play all that much better than Hicks could play going forward.

 

Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe got sent to AAA to crush, did so, and we still don't know if either guy is a solid MLB player. If the Twins send Hicks down the only thing they can really learn is whether or not Aaron Hicks can handle AAA pitching.

 

I don't want to see Hicks hit .150 all season, but I also don't think that would happen.

 

Hicks in April - .113/.229/.127 - 26 K, 11 BB

Hicks in May - .185/.254/.426 - 11 K, 5 BB

 

If they were going to send him down, it would have made sense to do so a few weeks ago. Now, he's improving (not a lot) and it would be worth seeing what he can do for a few more weeks. If it's mid-June and he is still putting up a line like he has in May, then send him down. For now, why not see if he is going to keep building on what he's done in recent weeks? There's no risk. Clete Thomas isn't going anywhere.

[Kwak]

Exactly! Hitting in AAA--is just that, and nothing more! Hicks will likely be sent down when Mastroianni heals, and somehow plays to an acceptable level to warrant a shot in the Twins lineup. But, that isn't happening any time soon.

[Shane Wahl]

An extra year of control for a potential MLB-record improvement over three weeks is ok. Hicks would bat leadoff for Rochester for three weeks and Arcia could bat third (with Herrmann batting second and Benson batting forth in my crazy world).

 

Antoan Richardson and Chris Colabello are doing extremely well right now. They might actually improve the team in the meantime. Tell both Hicks and Arcia the damn truth, tell them also that is going to benefit them, and just pull the trigger. An added benefit is having viable fill-ins in case of a continued Mastroianni injury and a Ramirez offensive collapse in his role.

[Twins Twerp]

But do you want to callup colabello before his super two status is over?

[Brad Swanson]

How does three weeks in Rochester really help Hicks? I don't buy confidence as the factor. If confidence is what you're looking for, isn't there a risk that he doesn't hit and then his confidence level is even lower?

 

I'm not really arguing that it would happen, but it's clearly the other side of that coin.

 

Antoan Richardson has played about 25 more games at AAA than Hicks. Is he really going to help the Twins?

[jokin]

How does three weeks in Rochester really help Hicks? I don't buy confidence as the factor. If confidence is what you're looking for, isn't there a risk that he doesn't hit and then his confidence level is even lower?

 

I'm not really arguing that it would happen, but it's clearly the other side of that coin.

 

Antoan Richardson has played about 25 more games at AAA than Hicks. Is he really going to help the Twins?

 

Young guys have been sent down to AAA for time immemorial, good time to work on specific things without the glaring spotlight. The Twins have been patient with Hicks and his development up until this year, no reason they can't revisit that approach if the situation eventually forces itself- without any long-term damage to the Hicks psyche.

 

Richardson is Revere-love, Part Deux. Place-holder on very temporary assignment.

[Seth Stohs]

How does three weeks in Rochester really help Hicks? I don't buy confidence as the factor. If confidence is what you're looking for, isn't there a risk that he doesn't hit and then his confidence level is even lower?

 

I'm not really arguing that it would happen, but it's clearly the other side of that coin.

 

Antoan Richardson has played about 25 more games at AAA than Hicks. Is he really going to help the Twins?

 

Getting sent down to teh minors can be a great thing. Hicks's numbers in May have been better, and there are occasionally signs, but his one big game have also affected his May numbers tremendously. Watching him bat, especially left-handed, I don't know how anyone can say that some extra seasoning would not be beneficial. There are certainly things he can work on. That has absolutely nothing to do with service time or money. Oh, and the time down in Rochester doesn't have to be 3 weeks. It would be until he makes a few adjustments and earns the promotion back. 3 weeks is just the business side of it. His demotion would be the baseball side of it.

 

Arcia has also struggled his last 4-6 games. The pitchers have made some adjustments. There's no harm in sending him down.

 

As for Richardson or Colabello, it's not about them being better. They may be a little better short term, but I'm thinking long term. I'm thinking what is best for those players and the organization long-term, and that's the reason to send them down and call up other guys. Richardson has some big league time. Nothing wrong with giving him some games. He's a speed, defense, contact guy at the top of the order. Could use that. Richardson, like Colabello, is also 29, so may not be a long-term thing, though he could be a 4th/5th OF/Pinch Runner type on a bench.

[B Richard]

I don't think it's a hard date. It's on a percentage basis. I believe the player needs to be in the top 20% of his rookie class. If it's a particularly light year for rookies, it might go to July.

 

That's correct. It's actually the top 22% now. It was 17% in the previous CBA as I recall

[Brad Swanson]

I have already admitted that I understand the desire to send a player down for seasoning. It sounds delicious.

 

My point is that I don't agree with the concept. Anything a player needs to work on at the AAA level, they can work on at the MLB level. If Arcia adjusts to the adjustments that pitchers have made against him, the Twins know they have an MLB caliber hitter. If he heads to Rochester and rakes, the Twins know they have a AAA caliber hitter and maybe an MLB hitter.

 

The lights may be brighter in Minnesota, but now we're getting into the psyche of a player, and I don't think we can do that from our homes. If the Twins have people who can accurately determine whether Aaron Hicks needs to be removed from the spotlight of the Majors, then I am all for sending him to AAA.

 

My issue with Hicks all along has been that I don't feel he should be sent to AAA as a form of punishment for his poor play. The Twins made the decision to jump him past AAA and they had to know it would be a rough transition. I don't see a player in AAA who will honestly help the Twins team, so the punishment makes no sense as a baseball decision either.

 

If the team (or fans) want Hicks sent to AAA for seasoning or a confidence boost or whatever, then I can understand that point of view. I feel that some want Hicks sent to AAA because he is "killing the Twins" and I just don't see it that way and I don't think replacing him with Clete Thomas or Antoan Richardson will do anything to remedy that particular issue.

[ThePuck]

How many people in here would have said Manny Machado was ready for the majors based on his age and his minor league numbers? Anyone think he'd even be in AA with us by now based on his numbers and his age?

[Mike Sixel]

Machado would be in high A right now, with a bunch of people saying "once he's been through the league twice, we'll see"; "the Twins are only keeping him down until the all star break, he'll move up soon enough, what's the hurry" and other stuff, we all know that.

 

Hicks is not ready to hit MLB pitching, certainly not from the left side. But having him try not being a switch hitter is apparently insane. I'd send him down. He's clearly not ready. It's not "punishment", it is about development and who can most help the team win. Right now, there are guys that might be better options, so promote them and send him down. He's just not ready at all.

[golfboy1]

I have already admitted that I understand the desire to send a player down for seasoning. It sounds delicious.

 

My point is that I don't agree with the concept. Anything a player needs to work on at the AAA level, they can work on at the MLB level. If Arcia adjusts to the adjustments that pitchers have made against him, the Twins know they have an MLB caliber hitter. If he heads to Rochester and rakes, the Twins know they have a AAA caliber hitter and maybe an MLB hitter.

 

The lights may be brighter in Minnesota, but now we're getting into the psyche of a player, and I don't think we can do that from our homes. If the Twins have people who can accurately determine whether Aaron Hicks needs to be removed from the spotlight of the Majors, then I am all for sending him to AAA.

 

My issue with Hicks all along has been that I don't feel he should be sent to AAA as a form of punishment for his poor play. The Twins made the decision to jump him past AAA and they had to know it would be a rough transition. I don't see a player in AAA who will honestly help the Twins team, so the punishment makes no sense as a baseball decision either.

 

If the team (or fans) want Hicks sent to AAA for seasoning or a confidence boost or whatever, then I can understand that point of view. I feel that some want Hicks sent to AAA because he is "killing the Twins" and I just don't see it that way and I don't think replacing him with Clete Thomas or Antoan Richardson will do anything to remedy that particular issue.

 

 

Hicks should be in AAA..he needs to work on his game & that is what AAA is for. The only player on the team that made the jump to the majors & was never sent back to AAA for more "seasoning" is Mauer. Everyone else has gone up & down until they made the neccessary adjustments/improvements.

 

Before Mauer the last guy who stuck was probably Koskie so it's not unreasonable to think that a guy batting .144 should be sent to AAA. Right now, I'd rather see Butera at the plate than Hicks batting LH. He's close to an automatic out right now from the LS.

 

It's not a punishment...he needs to improve & AAA is the best place for that. He is "killing" the Twins & while you can live with a certain amount of struggling from a young player the major leagues is still about winning.... it's not a player develoment league.

 

Don't forget, Hicks never played an inning at AAA so it was always expecting a lot to think he could jump straight to the majors. The Twins %#$@% up by not having any solid options in case Hicks faltered. They should have at least traded for Borbon when they had the chance.