Article: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Sean Manaea, SP

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1742-Twins-MLB-Draft-Profile-Sean-Manaea-SP

[maxisagod]

Manaea was always a catch 22. If he dominated he wouldn't be around for the Twins at 4. If he struggled at all he became a risk for the Twins at 4. I'm hoping he really shows increase velo in his last couple starts before the draft.

[Nick Nelson]

Yeah, the velo drop could turn out to be a blessing in disguise because at one point it seemed there was no chance he'd fall to No. 4. Now some people make it sound like he'd be a reach there. I personally am a big fan; I think under the tutelage of pro coaches he will turn into quite a player. But any time a 21-year-old loses several ticks on his FB you've got to wonder about underlying shoulder/elbow issues.

[cmb0252]

Yeah, the velo drop could turn out to be a blessing in disguise because at one point it seemed there was no chance he'd fall to No. 4. Now some people make it sound like he'd be a reach there. I personally am a big fan; I think under the tutelage of pro coaches he will turn into quite a player. But any time a 21-year-old loses several ticks on his FB you've got to wonder about underlying shoulder/elbow issues.

 

I think this logic is a little flawed. Manaea didn't have a velocity drop but more of a spike in velocity in the cape cod. Manaea never threw in the mid 90s before the cape and hasn't thrown in them since. He wasnt much of a prospect till his velocity spike. Quoting Keith Law;

"Manaea was nowhere on the prospect map until he went to the Cape Cod League last summer and started hitting 96 with a plus slider, putting up numbers that rival those of the best pitchers in the Cape League's history, including 85 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings against just seven walks and 21 hits."

Personally I don't think the injury is to blame but more of regressing to the mean. While you are right that he definitely has upside he also brings a ton of risk for a college guy.

[B Richard]

Is velocity something where a pitcher can even "regress to the mean?" To me that doesn't make sense. You can gain velocity over time and lose it gradually. Maybe a mechanical change? I just don't see a "velocity spike" as a normal occurrence. I have almost no knowledge of any pitcher whose peak velocity spiked briefly only to drop back.

[Brodin4Calder]

I think the Twins may draft him just because he is more ready than Stewart.

[Mike Sixel]

I wouldn't quit being a Twins fan if they took him. But projecting him to be here in 2014? With this team? No chance. Gibson can't even make the rotation over Hernandez.

[gunnarthor]

I think CMB nailed it. Add in that Boras is his agent and I think the Twins go another route. Apparently, the Twins are big on Stewart who has an amazing ceiling (arguable the highest in the draft) and has all the intangibles (competitive, athletic as hell, good character) you'd want.

[cmathewson]

How much of the spike in velo is due to fast guns on the Cape? You rarely see a guy have that kind of a short-term spike without at least showing that velo at times afterward. Guys sometimes dial it back in college, but "touch" their former velo when needed. If that's the case now, it represents another level of maturity: don't throw harder than you need to to get guys out.

 

Most of the mocks I've seen have the Rockies taking Manaea. That leaves the Twins with a choice between Bryant, Stewart, Frazier and Meadows. If that's the choice, Bryant is the best fit for this team, imho. It would be great to have this pick become part of the next wave of talent, which should arrive between now and the end of 2015.

 

But Stewart has the highest upside of those four. So if they pick on upside alone, I think they'll take Stewart. The dark horse is Meadows, whom the Twins are known to be high on and might consider a better risk because of Stewart's diabetes. A Hicks, Buxton, Meadows outfield would be sick.

[Mike Sixel]

They need pitching! Where will the 5 starters come from if you keep passing on (Gausmann/Appel) great pitchers in the top 5? College relievers? If Stewart is there, take him. If it is between Manaea and Bryant, you need to decide if Manaea can be a 2-3 type pitcher. If so, how do you pass on another pitcher?

[cmathewson]

They need pitching! Where will the 5 starters come from if you keep passing on (Gausmann/Appel) great pitchers in the top 5? College relievers? If Stewart is there, take him. If it is between Manaea and Bryant, you need to decide if Manaea can be a 2-3 type pitcher. If so, how do you pass on another pitcher?

 

I don't think you draft based on need. I have no qualms with drafting Buxton last year. Think of how much pitching we were able to acquire with Revere. On a scale of 1-10, Revere is a 6 at best. But that is how desperate teams are to get young center fielders. Buxton is a 9--probably the most talented outfield prospect we've ever had.

[Nick Nelson]

Personally I don't think the injury is to blame but more of regressing to the mean.

 

That's not really how pitch velocity works.

[gunnarthor]

They need pitching! Where will the 5 starters come from if you keep passing on (Gausmann/Appel) great pitchers in the top 5? College relievers? If Stewart is there, take him. If it is between Manaea and Bryant, you need to decide if Manaea can be a 2-3 type pitcher. If so, how do you pass on another pitcher?

 

I know you don't like it but best player available is the right method. That said, in this draft I think Bryant is the only bat that the Twins might have in their top 6 (Gray, Appel, Bryant, Stewart, Shipley, Manaea) so it's very likely you get your pitcher.

[cmb0252]

Is velocity something where a pitcher can even "regress to the mean?" To me that doesn't make sense. You can gain velocity over time and lose it gradually. Maybe a mechanical change? I just don't see a "velocity spike" as a normal occurrence. I have almost no knowledge of any pitcher whose peak velocity spiked briefly only to drop back.

 

As a sophomore Manaea threw 105 innings and his fastball was in the 89-93 range. As a junior he has thrown about 75 innings and from my knowledge hasn't hit over 94. For the 50ish innings he pitched in the cod he was in the 92-96 range. To me that says he out performed in the cape cod league and was bond to come back to earth.

 

Why was he throwing harder in the cape? That's a multi million buck question. Hot radar guns, better conditioning, passed and present injury problems, mechanical issues, or who knows. Also, the length of his outings could effect his velocity as we see with relief pitchers all the time. I just don't think it is safe to assume he will regain his cape cod form.

[Mike Sixel]

I know you don't like it but best player available is the right method. That said, in this draft I think Bryant is the only bat that the Twins might have in their top 6 (Gray, Appel, Bryant, Stewart, Shipley, Manaea) so it's very likely you get your pitcher.

 

If you don't think Manaea is a legit 2-3 type, I'd be ok with taking Bryant. I've typed that here before. but if you never draft pitchers high, then you have to be willing to use other channels. For the first time, they dealt young players for other young players. I'm not convinced May is any good, but Meyer might be. But as long as you REFUSE to use FA to get legit pitching, you need to use your opportunities in the draft to get it.

 

As much as people here love buxton, he's in low A, and years away (he's not consistent, he has to do it at least two times through the teams, he has to stay down for the good of the affilate.......). Gausmann will be starting in the majors this year, and looks like he has a chance to be better than ANY pitcher in the Twins system. Oh, and they also passed on Appel.....Are you sure that Buxton is the BPA from last year? He might be, but to say we know the BPA with such certainty that people say it is a stretch, imo.

[gunnarthor]

If you don't think Manaea is a legit 2-3 type, I'd be ok with taking Bryant. I've typed that here before. but if you never draft pitchers high, then you have to be willing to use other channels. For the first time, they dealt young players for other young players. I'm not convinced May is any good, but Meyer might be. But as long as you REFUSE to use FA to get legit pitching, you need to use your opportunities in the draft to get it.

 

As much as people here love buxton, he's in low A, and years away (he's not consistent, he has to do it at least two times through the teams, he has to stay down for the good of the affilate.......). Gausmann will be starting in the majors this year, and looks like he has a chance to be better than ANY pitcher in the Twins system. Oh, and they also passed on Appel.....Are you sure that Buxton is the BPA from last year? He might be, but to say we know the BPA with such certainty that people say it is a stretch, imo.

 

I understand what you are saying, I really do. And I agree that a future rotation of Gausman, Gibson and Meyer would be a crap load of fun. But I do think a team should draft BPA - whoever/however they decide that. Need should be a tie breaker. In this draft, I expect we draft Stewert. Rockies seem to be in love with Bryant so he won't slip to #4.

 

And yes, Buxton was clearly the BPA in last years draft. That was the nearly consensus opinion of prospect watchers. And while Gausman is killing it at AA, Buxton's even better at his level. He's 19 and the best player in low A. He'll be a top 5 prospect in baseball next year. He was worth it.

[nicksaviking]

How much of the spike in velo is due to fast guns on the Cape? You rarely see a guy have that kind of a short-term spike without at least showing that velo at times afterward.

 

The Cape guns may have been fast but surely the scouts watching knew of the accuracy. Fast guns also wouldn't explain his utter dominance over the hitters. I think that was more impressive than any velocity.

 

Still, I think this is a rare occurance where the HS arm is the safer pick. From the sound of it, I don't know that Manaea needs less developmental work than Stewart. Both of them may need to be broken down quite a bit to be built back up properly.

[Mike Sixel]

I am not saying Buxton might not be worth it, but the certainty everyone has is a bit much for me. He's in low A. And plenty of prospect watchers liked Appel more last year. Tell me how you get pitching if you refuse to draft it early.

[johnnydakota]

What does any one know about the 18 year old Salazar?

97mph fb and 3 additional pitches..

Not saying he should be taken #1 , but i fail to how he can be ranked so low?

Anyone have more insight on him ?

[cmb0252]

I am not saying Buxton might not be worth it, but the certainty everyone has is a bit much for me. He's in low A. And plenty of prospect watchers liked Appel more last year. Tell me how you get pitching if you refuse to draft it early.

 

They picked JO last year at 32, Bard later in the supp round, have the 43 pick in a very deep college pitching class this year, and traded for Meyers/May. A top 5 pick should be a franchise changing player, not a big league average player. Is Manaea a franchise changing pitcher? He could be. Law agrees with Mr.Nelson in the fact Manaea could be special if people can find that Cape cod magic again:

 

"Manaea profiles more as a league-average big-league starter right now, but a team that thinks he can recapture his look from the summer of 2012 might take him higher than that in the draft"

 

Was the Cape Cod performance a mirage? I have no idea but you know the Twins front office has done their homework and if they take Manaea at 4 they think he is legit.

[Mike Sixel]

Bard? I don't drafting injured college relief pitchers fixes your system's lack of MLB starters. How's that working so far, the relievers they drafted?

 

How is a 2-3 starter a "big league average player", exactly? How many do the Twins have on their roster (or did they have last year)? I'm not saying I know if Manaea is that good or not, all I'm saying is that if you keep passing on guys that might be that good, it is pretty darn hard to have 3, let alone 5, good starting pitchers. Darn hard.

 

And it's great that they finally traded young players to get higher upside prospects, but I'm not exactly counting the birds yet.....as May appears to be an awful lot like last year so far. And both are in AA, and not even close to Gausmann or what Appel will be.

 

I still think if you think Manaea will be no worse than a number 3 (which is not league average, but much better than that), then you take him, unless you like Stewart more, which I do. Though, I will admit to being intrigued by Bryant. But I think the choice will be between Stewart, Manaea, and HS position players.

[cmathewson]

And it's great that they finally traded young players to get higher upside prospects, but I'm not exactly counting the birds yet.....as May appears to be an awful lot like last year so far. And both are in AA, and not even close to Gausmann or what Appel will be.

 

May 2012: ERA 4.87, WHIP 1.45, HR/9 1.3

May 2013: ERA 3.96, WHIP 1.36, HR/9 0.6

 

If you don't want to count birds on a AA arm, why would you count them on a couple of draft picks?

[Mike Sixel]

Because Appel and Gausmann were much more likely to be good than May or Meyer. Sometimes scouting indicates things, and in this case, scouting indicated that for Appel and Gausmann. But it is not that sure for Manaea, so I'd be more ok with taking Bryant if Appel and Gray are gone, and maybe, though only maybe, if Steward is there.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

What does any one know about the 18 year old Salazar?

97mph fb and 3 additional pitches..

Not saying he should be taken #1 , but i fail to how he can be ranked so low?

Anyone have more insight on him ?

 

Carlos Salazar was relatively unknown up until about a year ago, had a foot injury and missed exposure time. Has a huge fastball but is still pretty raw. Shows a feel for a breaking ball, but doesn't really have a changeup or other offspeed pitch. Starter vs reliever question. Heard comps to Javy Guerra. High ceiling/low floor, makes him a risk before Round 2.

[Wanklenuts]

I still think if you think Manaea will be no worse than a number 3 (which is not league average, but much better than that)

 

A number 3 starter is the definition of league average. If 1s and 2s are above average and 4s and 5s are below average, then number 3s are league average.

[Mike Sixel]

A number 3 starter is the definition of league average. If 1s and 2s are above average and 4s and 5s are below average, then number 3s are league average.

 

Welcome to the board!

 

Not true at all, not even close. That's not how averages work at all. The majority of starters are 4s or 5s, there are only about 10 number 1s in all of MLB, and probably 20-30 number 2 starters at most, I have not counted lately. There are a like number of number 3 starters. But compared to other starters, number 3 starters are well above the "average" starter. For example, I'd say the Twins have zero number 3 starters on their MLB roster right now, Diamond might be, but I don't know if that is so or not over the long haul.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

"Below-average starters" are better known as "relievers". (i.e Anthony Swarzak and Brian Duensing... and Pedro Hernandez)

[Wanklenuts]

I guess it is basically an argument of semantics. Your definition of a 1 is my definition of an ace. I would say a 1 is pretty much what you describe as a 2. And I would agree that Diamond is a borderline 3 in a contending rotation. Based on your definition, I would say Manaea is worth the number 4 pick, but I think you need to draft best player available. If it doesn't fill a need then you can always trade someone to get what you need.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess it is basically an argument of semantics. Your definition of a 1 is my definition of an ace. I would say a 1 is pretty much what you describe as a 2. And I would agree that Diamond is a borderline 3 in a contending rotation. Based on your definition, I would say Manaea is worth the number 4 pick, but I think you need to draft best player available. If it doesn't fill a need then you can always trade someone to get what you need.

 

You can do that, but will they do that? That's the question.

 

Great, logical post, though. Post more please. I like logic.

[Steve Lein]

But as long as you REFUSE to use FA to get legit pitching, you need to use your opportunities in the draft to get it.

 

Exactly why BPA doesn't exactly fit how you would like it to with the Twins. The only way they are EVER going to build a good pitching staff is through the draft. And if you never use your high picks on high-talent pitching, you're never going to have an above average rotation unless a miracle happens with a guy you didn't see coming. You can talk about trades, but the Twins likely won't ever trade the type of talent that brings no-doubt frontline starters back either (guys like Sano/Buxton).

 

Guys like Berrios/May/Meyer are great, but their odds of being frontline ACE types are not. Berrios has some good stuff, but lacks any projection, and because of that he won't be a frontline type when he gets to the majors. May has swing and miss stuff but lacks control, so he's a mid-rotation-peak or power bullpen arm. Meyer has #1 potential, but the odds of him harnessing everything to get there isn't particularly high (he'd be regarded even higher if it was).

 

So I think out of our future rotation guys, we have a #2 (Meyer), maybe a couple #3's (Gibson, Berrios), and whole mess of back of the rotation guys (Scott Diamond might be a #3, but he looks a lot like a lefty Nick Blackburn to me) ...Which is still not the rotation of a contender in my book.