First quarter over...on pace for 89 losses

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hate to say it, but I think things are going to look really bad about a month from now. The Twins are playing some of their worst ball of the season at the moment, and now must head to Atlanta and Detroit, the beginning of a stretch in which they play 15 of 20 on the road.

 

On the bright side, I think they'll have a pretty decent second half and finish short of 90 losses. But I'm bracing for the worst in the short-term.

 

This is how I see it playing out as well. The rotation is going to get really ugly in the short-term against tough teams on the road.

 

Then we'll see some player movement and the team will probably improve as the front office jettisons a few of those 5+ ERAs for something closer to league average.

[Top Gun]

It's not all Gardy fault. He is doin all he can, If you can't find him better pitching there isn't much hope.

[Squirrel]

It's not all Gardy fault. He is doin all he can, If you can't find him better pitching there isn't much hope.

 

I don't disagree with that, either. But I do think a change is necessary. I'm not on the 'worst manager ever' bandwagon, but I think his era is coming to a close, one way or another. It's just time. And the fact that he hasn't been extended already I think is a sign. My guess ... why give the job to someone new in a year when they knew it was still gonna be bad. So when they turn the corner (hopefully next year) it's with fresh skills. I think it's his last year unless lightning strikes.

[JB_Iowa]

I also think that things will look really bad a month from now. I'm not so sure about finishing with less than 90 losses though, especially with the OP's original projected pace of 89 losses (sorry, I've been in a dark hole for the last month and hadn't looked at the numbers).

 

I suspect they will finish with less losses than the last 2 years -- somewhere in the low 90's. The thing we will need to judge is the progress (or lack thereof) they have made toward re-shaping this team to be more competitive in future years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's not all Gardy fault. He is doin all he can, If you can't find him better pitching there isn't much hope.

 

I don't see how this can be blamed on Gardy. A bad pitching staff is a bad pitching staff.

 

I'm not against the Twins exploring a different direction with their on-field management but you can't blame this team's performance on Gardenhire. You just can't... He has so little pitching talent to work with over a 162 game season.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I think I had them at around 75-78 wins, so this is worse, right? Somehow they are underachieving predictions that had them losing 85-87 or so games......But I am not really surprised by this outcome so far. They bargain shopped for pitching, they did not sign a position player, they jettisoned two good starting OFers.....in retrospect, not sure why I thought they'd win more than last year. Well, I did think they'd have Gibson up here, which I'm sure at some point they'll do......

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see how this can be blamed on Gardy. A bad pitching staff is a bad pitching staff.

 

I'm not against the Twins exploring a different direction with their on-field management but you can't blame this team's performance on Gardenhire. You just can't... He has so little pitching talent to work with over a 162 game season.

 

It's never his fault when they are bad, but when they had good players it was his "fault" they were good? I don't get that.

[Winston Smith]

Everybody knows managers win games, players lose them!

[gunnarthor]

I think we've probably already reached our high point of the season and it'll be a tough slog for a bit. It'll be more interesting to see how Hicks, Arcia and Gibson play at this level. I think Ryan will trade Morneau and Willingham at the deadline and maybe Burton, too, to continue to build up a rotation/farm system.

 

As for other subjects in this thread. I think the Twins are headed for another top 5 pick in the draft and I don't think they'll abandon BPA and that's probably, longterm, a good thing. Say what you will about Johnson but he's drafts have at least been bold. On Gardy: I think he sticks around for a few more years and eventually is replaced by Dougie Baseball.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's never his fault when they are bad, but when they had good players it was his "fault" they were good? I don't get that.

 

You're arguing a point I've never tried to make.

 

I put very little stock in baseball coaching. I don't think it has much of an impact unless the manager is a Joe Maddon-type manager.

 

IMO, Gardy does a decent job of clubhouse management and keeping his guys fresh through a long season (though his bizarre run-ins with young players seems to be more frequent and troubling in recent seasons). Past that, I don't feel it matters much.

[Mike Sixel]

Fair enough, Brock, but others do make that argument. I took your post wrong.....the interwebs can be tricky for finely distinct points.....As for the number of wins, if the GM is stubborn with who the SPs are, this team is in trouble of reaching 90 wins, imo.

 

*edit....that should read "losing less than 90 games"

[nicksaviking]

I don't see how this can be blamed on Gardy. A bad pitching staff is a bad pitching staff.

 

The stafff is terrible as predicted, although Gardy has made some pretty poor decisions with the pitching moves. He does not seem to have a feel when to pull Correia specifically. It should go without saying, in a tight contest, he or any other starter should not be in late game situations if they allow a runner to advance to scoring postion with less than two outs, they just are not able to strike anyone out which prevents the runners from advancing.

 

Despite that, I actually don't want to see Gardenhire canned. At least not until Ryan is. This IS Ryan's mess, Gardy is simply bathing in it. I don't want Ryan to give any impression that Gardy failed when the failure is actually due to Ryan's reluctance to identify and pay for competent pitching.

[Nick Nelson]

I also think that things will look really bad a month from now. I'm not so sure about finishing with less than 90 losses though, especially with the OP's original projected pace of 89 losses (sorry, I've been in a dark hole for the last month and hadn't looked at the numbers).

 

Well, projections tend to look bad when made in the midst of a bad losing streak. A week ago they were on pace for 83 wins.

[johnnydakota]

It's not all Gardy fault. He is doin all he can, If you can't find him better pitching there isn't much hope.

 

I have counted 9 games so far this season where he stayed to long with a pitcher , trying to get him through the 5th or 6th inning , where everyone could see ,said pitcher was struggling and it ended up costing us the game....not that we would have won all 9 , but even if we won 5 out of the 9 , then once again we are above .500

[JB_Iowa]

IMO, Gardy does a decent job of clubhouse management and keeping his guys fresh through a long season (though his bizarre run-ins with young players seems to be more frequent and troubling in recent seasons). Past that, I don't feel it matters much.

 

As someone in the same age group as Gardenhire, I understand how he could be frustrated with some of the younger players ... until you reach a similar age, its hard to understand some of the frustration that your parents and grandparents felt with younger generations. (Unfortunately by the time you do understand, its too late to go back and undo some of the things you did).

 

The problem is that Gardenhire is in a business where he has to deal with young players; and they are the future of the franchise (perhaps even more so than Mauer). While many of them are fungible some of them may be pretty important to the long-term future of the club.

 

I honestly think both Gardenhire and the club would benefit from a change -- either because Gardenhire assumes a different role with the Twins or because he accepts a managerial position with a different club. I don't necessarily think that the managerial game has passed him by just that his style and persona have gotten stale in Minnesota.

[JB_Iowa]

Well, projections tend to look bad when made in the midst of a bad losing streak. A week ago they were on pace for 83 wins.

 

Very true. The thing is that the OP picked a logical point - 1/4 of the season. But yes, the end result could change dramatically one way or another. e.g. take 2011, 40 games in they were 13-27 (on pace for 109 losses); by 81 games in, they were at 35-46 (on pace for 92 losses); after 120 games, they were at 53-67 (90-91 loss pace) and, of course, they finished at 63-99.

 

I guess we'll see if they played "above their heads" a little earlier in the season or if the current streak is more indicative of what they can do. I'm sure there will be a number of peaks and valleys throughout the course of the season. I don't think any of us can project with true accuracy -- the guys they brought over from the NL may find more (or less) success as the season goes on; injuries and weariness may or may not take their toll; some of the younger guys may hit their strides; trades may be made, etc. It's pretty much all just a guess.

[TheLeviathan]

Given their offensive production and pitching this year, their record now is a far more accurate indicator of their play than what it was last week.

[silverslugger]

I have counted 9 games so far this season where he stayed to long with a pitcher , trying to get him through the 5th or 6th inning , where everyone could see ,said pitcher was struggling and it ended up costing us the game....not that we would have won all 9 , but even if we won 5 out of the 9 , then once again we are above .500

 

I don't know which 9 games your talking about and I'm not a Gardy apologist so I'm not necessarily arguing against your point. However, these starting pitchers have already put our bullpen in a big bind over the last two weeks with their far less than stellar performances. I'm just glad I can DVR the games and watch them on FF. It's embarrassing watching our SP's perform in comparison to those on other teams. They are constantly in 1-0, 2-0, 3-1, 3-2 counts. How many times have we seen our SP with a pitch count approaching 100 and nowhere near out of the 5th inning?

[jokin]

This is how I see it playing out as well. The rotation is going to get really ugly in the short-term against tough teams on the road.

 

Then we'll see some player movement and the team will probably improve as the front office jettisons a few of those 5+ ERAs for something closer to league average.

 

So, let's see if this makes sense....some player movement that leaves gaping holes in the lineup is going to somehow improve the team regarding position players and replacing the current "New (and Improved?) Look" SP corps with last year's anonymous AAA filler SP corps plus a rookie on innings limitation (with over one-third to 40% of his innings already used up in AAA) is going to result in a "pretty decent second half... finish"?

 

Where do I go to get in line to lay down some dough on the over/under on 90 losses? I'll take the "over", thankyou.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't think anyone (that I've seen) is blaming it all on Gardy.

 

However, there are specific and general reasons to think it's time for a change.

 

Specific:

- pitching changes, specifically starting pitching, have clearly been a factor in several Twins losses this season. That's on the manager

 

- The Twins used to be known for "doing the little things." People like to pooh-pooh this idea, but those things add up over a season and matter. They have been getting worse and worse at these things for a few years now. Some of that is on the players. Some of that is on the manager/coaches. Simple things like running the bases have been a Twins weakness for a while now, why?

 

General:

-the stench of losing is all over this organization. I think players come to the park expecting to lose, and it shows in their play and their demeanor. Perhaps a new manager would have some positive effect

 

-young players in particular appear to me terrified of getting in Gardy's doghouse, to the point where their play is negatively affected. They're afraid to just go out and play

 

And one more overall statement...I don't get the meme that managers have no effect on baseball teams. Managers make decisions on who plays, where they play, which pitchers are in the game,hen to sacrifice, when to H/R, where to position the defense etc. The idea that doesn't have an effect just doesn't make sense to me. I think managers are reflected in how their teams play. Gardy can't turn this pitching staff into world beaters. He can and should get more from it than he's getting.

[Kwak]

There are several on-going discussion points: Gardenhire--no, of course it's not all his fault. But when things go poorly for awhile, some big changes have to be made. Replacing the field manager is the easiest and quickest. Replacing the GM generally means a clean sweep, and a committment to spend a lot more money. The Twins haven't reached that level of desperation--yet!

 

Veterans--the die is cast that there is to be a completely new (a much less expensive!) team--say "Good-Bye".

 

Youth at the ML level--someone has to play, and it won't be free agents. So, these guys get there 1-3 years to "prove themselves", one way or the other.

 

Youth at the minor league level--those that excel should be challenged by agrressive promotion. I believe it's foolish to promote 1 level per season. The top performers need at most a half-season at a level, then promote him. Continue this pace until said players

can't continue their success.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So, let's see if this makes sense....some player movement that leaves gaping holes in the lineup is going to somehow improve the team regarding position players and replacing the current "New (and Improved?) Look" SP corps with last year's anonymous AAA filler SP corps plus a rookie on innings limitation (with over one-third to 40% of his innings already used up in AAA) is going to result in a "pretty decent second half... finish"?

 

Where do I go to get in line to lay down some dough on the over/under on 90 losses? I'll take the "over", thankyou.

 

I didn't say they'd be good, only better than they are now.

 

Which isn't hard when you have multiple starters throwing 6+ ERA ball.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As someone in the same age group as Gardenhire, I understand how he could be frustrated with some of the younger players ... until you reach a similar age, its hard to understand some of the frustration that your parents and grandparents felt with younger generations. (Unfortunately by the time you do understand, its too late to go back and undo some of the things you did).

 

The problem is that Gardenhire is in a business where he has to deal with young players; and they are the future of the franchise (perhaps even more so than Mauer). While many of them are fungible some of them may be pretty important to the long-term future of the club.

 

I honestly think both Gardenhire and the club would benefit from a change -- either because Gardenhire assumes a different role with the Twins or because he accepts a managerial position with a different club. I don't necessarily think that the managerial game has passed him by just that his style and persona have gotten stale in Minnesota.

 

It's understandable that a generation gap forms as a manager ages... but when your job primarily involves dealing with "employees" under the age of 30, you just have to adjust your expectations and interactions with said players.

 

And it seems to me that Gardy has been doing a pretty bad job of it lately.

[ThePuck]

How about this: If Gardy can't take any of the blame for the last 2+ seasons, because he's been given so little talent, then he gets no credit for winning when we had more talent than any other team in our USUALLY (not always) very poor division...which was most of the seasons since he's been manager.

 

On top of that, how is it that his coaches took the fall this offseason, but he doesn't? Were those coaches not working with the same talent?

[Mike Sixel]

gunnarthar, you had me until the last line. You made some good arguments, with some great humor. But that last line, you lost me. I was willing to consider your arguments, then you dismissed any counter arguments with name calling. Bummer.

[ThePuck]

gunnarthar, you had me until the last line. You made some good arguments, with some great humor. But that last line, you lost me. I was willing to consider your arguments, then you dismissed any counter arguments with name calling. Bummer.

 

Are you surprised?

[ThePuck]

So, let me get this straight.

 

After projecting false assumptions on what I was saying, assuming other people argument's, which I didn't post here, are mine in your talking down rant to me, you're saying he deserves all the credit for the winning seasons and none of the blame for the poor seasons. In a nutshell.

 

And, of course, the generalizing name calling at the end...always a good touch in any argument.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gardy haters are birthers.

 

Sigh.

 

You do realize that you're propping up a strawman here, right? Just as the "gardy haters" are often irrational in their hatred of the man, you come off as the polar opposite in this post, which is just as wrong as unconditionally hating the guy.

 

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. There are legitimate reasons to like Gardenhire and there are legitimate reasons to dislike the man (as a baseball manager). Where you fall on that spectrum is the rub. Do his faults outweigh his strengths?

[nicksaviking]

Has anyone said they hated Gardy? There is a distinction I hope you are aware. I like Gardy a lot and long ago he was great for the Twins, but the product is getting stale, something has to change.

 

Gardy haters are birthers.

 

No grey area there huh? I must have voted wrong.

[gunnarthor]

Sigh.

 

You do realize that you're propping up a strawman here, right? Just as the "gardy haters" are often irrational in their hatred of the man, you come off as the polar opposite in this post, which is just as wrong as unconditionally hating the guy.

 

Meh. This thread has so many strawmen it wasn't worth going through it all over again. Just sum up all the basic arguments and go. My apologies for the birther comment. I'll edit it out.