Predictions for future transactions

[stringer bell]

The Twins seem to be going into a slow fade. The hitting has cooled a bit, but the main culprit seems to be the pitching. As mentioned all over this site, the starters rank near the bottom at several significant categories, including ERA, hits per inning, and innings pitched. The bullpen has been very good, but used too often and seems to be springing some leaks. The bench now has one "resting" starter and no backup center fielder and the lineup includes a lot of guys who are underperforming for major league regulars.

 

Help at AAA includes Chris Colabello, a RH hitter who nominally is a first baseman and a bunch of guys who aren't performing well at Rochester. Pitching options include starters Kyle Gibson, Samuel Deduno, PJ Walters and the rehabbing Cole De Vries. 27 year old Andrew Albers has performed very well, as well. Tyler Robertson and Caleb Thielbar are on the 40-man and lefthanded, if the Twins want to reach out to get a lefthanded specialist.

 

While the Twins 40-man roster is full, there are a couple options to make room for a player not currently on the 40-man. Darin Mastroianni is going to have surgery and will be disabled until July--he could be placed on the 60-day DL. Joe Benson is below the Mendoza line at Rochester and could perhaps clear a DFA, and Tim Wood is experiencing continuing shoulder problems, but a clean MRI, and is out of options, so that he could be designated and either not missed or outrighted if and when he is declared healthy.

 

My prediction is that the Twins will replace at least one starter before the month is out. Pedro Hernandez is the obvious choice. The first chance will come to Deduno, who is healthy and looked like he had secured a spot in the rotation before he was injured in the WBC.

 

Anyone else have different ideas?

[spideyo]

Good call on that prediction

[Rosterman]

Players on the bubble:

 

60-day DL Wood and Mastro

 

Designated for assignment: Butera, Benson, Robertson, DeVries, Hendriks

 

Trade candidates: Roenicke, Willingham, Carroll, Morneau

 

Should be playing everyday at AAA: Hicks, Parmelee

 

Do we give a looksee: Waters, Deduno, someday Blackburn, Thompson but all, if sent back down, have to clear waivers or be a free agent

 

Potential bats in minors not on 40-man: Olmeda, Thomas, Richardson

 

Future: Herrmann, Hermsen, Gibson, May (and the return of Hernandez)

 

So, fun and games IN THE SYSTEM doesn't exactly excite anyone.

 

But the starting staff does need a major overhall....Worley is the second-coming of Blackburn this season, Pelfry needed to rehab and come back later, Diamond is rough, Correia is himself....and the Twins have the fifth spot waiting for a promising rookie or the musical chairs of wannabees.

 

What is a team to do?

[stringer bell]

After today's disaster, perhaps it is time for Vanimal to head to Rochester. He's been mostly dreadful. The easy answer is to promote Gibson for Worley. Pelfrey is a runner up, but given his veteran status, it will be tough to send him down. He might want to be DLed and then rehab. I am all in favor of sending the youngsters, Arcia and Hicks, down. There is a glut of Corner OF/1B/DHs on the team so perhaps Arcia can go first, and then depending on the productivity of several players Hicks could be sent down and replaced by Richardson or maybe just maybe Joe Benson if he is able to get it going at Rochester (two hits last night).

[PseudoSABR]

I think the Twins need to continue to evaluate what they have in the minors in terms of help. I think Benson needs to come up at some point, because they'll eventually have to make a decision on his 40 man roster spot. I like that they brought Deduno, and I expect De Vries to get another shot as well at some point. We'll see Gibson, but there might be more pressing evaluative concerns (will Deduno, Devries, Walters, Colabello, Benson keep their 40 man spots heading into the future?).

 

The thing with Worley and, the other young players like Hicks and Arcia, for me is what's the best approach for their future​ sustained success. Is it better that they keep getting coached by Brunasky and Anderson/Culler or do they need to work on things in AAA and have some sustained success to build confidence? I don't think it's an easy or obvious answer, and let's face it we're building for the future--actual, sustainable player development is worth losing games in the short term. Where that development best takes place I think is a rather difficult question.

[ThePuck]

anyone have the specifics about how long before the twins can sell the team and what kind of hit they take if they do as far as paying back some of what the county paid for?

[Brad Swanson]

anyone have the specifics about how long before the twins can sell the team and what kind of hit they take if they do as far as paying back some of what the county paid for?

 

I don't, but this does seem like the best place to look for them.

[Brad Swanson]

I predict that Vance Worley will be sent to Rochester a few seconds ago.

[snepp]

I predict that Vance Worley will be sent to Rochester a few minutes ago.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I predict that people will take credit after the fact for predicting Worley to be sent down.

[DaveW]

If I were GM I would send Worley to AAA

[PseudoSABR]

I predict that I was wrong.

[spideyo]

Wow, you guys are good! I know Gardy said a "corresponding roster move" would be made, but is there any reason they would make any other move than to add Deduno?

 

Maybe if tomorrow burns through a lot of relievers they'll send Thielbar down just to get a fresh arm.

 

Pelfrey has over 5 years service time, so he could refuse any minor league assignment. More likely is that they'd push him to the bullpen.

 

Right now, Duensing, Thielbar, Fein, and Diamond are the only pitchers with options left. I don't think that Corriea or Pelfrey are pitching that bad that the Twins would be willing to cut them loose entirely, and the bullpen has looked pretty darn good.

[Halsey Hall]

I predict we won't see Worley for a good solid month, if ever again.

[Brad Swanson]

I predict we won't see Worley for a good solid month, if ever again.

 

Yep, lots of 25-year-olds with decent track records completely disappear after eight bad starts.

[ThePuck]

Yep, lots of 25-year-olds with decent track records completely disappear after eight bad starts.

 

especially when they aren't even arbitration eligible yet.

[stringer bell]

Well, after relative stability, the Twins have made a rash of roster moves. I am glad that success stories Thielbar and Colabello will have their chance. Thielbar has been good so far, while Colabello will hit some, I think. Can they be useful big leaguers? It would be good for the Twins. Deduno is an enigma, but after witnessing Worley and Hernandez pitch, it is certainly worth seeing what Deduno 2.0 (3.0, 4.0, or 5.0?) can do. I consider Gibson a different class than both Walters and Albers. He has the potential and the profile to be a good starter. His numbers are good at Rochester and I maintain that a surehanded rangy infield would make them considerably better since he has a 2-1 ground out/air out ratio. While it makes sense to see what Albers and Walters can offer, it is doubtful that either will ever be a regular starter in a major league rotation. One further reason that Walters might have an edge over the other two is that he has over a full year in the major leagues.