Article: When Will Gibson Get a Chance?

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1729-When-Will-Gibson-Get-a-Chance

[beckmt]

Gibson's numbers should be better before being called up. Do not want to destroy him before he finds out what the majors are all about. This year is not about winning(though that is nice). It is about player development. I expect about the all star games in the minor leagues a number of players will be moved up and some players will be moved out of the organization and some players will be in the majors. I expect to see Gibson at that time.

[Seth Stohs]

from my perspective, he'll get called up when he bunches together 3-4 good starts. At this point, he's being treated just like every minor leaguer, developing and trying to get better until the need arises. Pelfrey and Worley aren't leaving the rotation any time soon. Pedro Hernandez will get 1-2 more opportunities. Gibson certainly hasn't dominated in Rochester. But, he'll be up soon.

 

Is he more ready than Hicks and maybe Arcia? Probably.

 

But just because he's 25 doesn't mean they need to push, regardless of his 2013 innings limit. They need to do what is best for him from 2013 through 2019 when he 'could' become a free agent. They'll get his ages 25-32, and that is exciting.

[jokin]

Even if he struggles to adapt, you’d be hard-pressed to argue that the former first-round pick would be a downgrade from any member of the rotation not named Scott Diamond or Kevin Correia.

 

Don't necessarily assume continued good news from the Twins aces. The worm has already begun to turn on Correia. His May numbers should raise the caution flags all over, as well. His ERA for May is 5.71, compared to a May SP Twins team ERA of 5.30. And it's most certainly not BABIP related- .289. You expressed concern for Pelfrey's OBA of .339. Correia's May OBA is alarming for the alleged Twins ACE, coming in at .333. That number ranks tied for 7th worst for all MLB qualifying starters. His May bOPS is .937. That means that every batter that Correia has faced in May averages out to something inbetween Prince Fielder (.938) and Joe Mauer (.931).

 

Maybe it's just a short-term slump on a 3 start small sample. But Correia has tended to be a fast starter and ends seasons prematurely with a tired arm. The Twins are likely going to need more help than just from Gibson.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Is it just me or could we solve several problems at once by moving Hernandez to the pen and sending down Fein? Hernandez as another lefty specialist would only help our bullpen, and Fein has an ERA north of 4 now I believe?

[Mike Sixel]

He's better than 1, maybe three current starters. There are only so many innings in any arm, let alone his this year. If the Twins care about the paying customers and team this year at all, he should be up here now. Worrying about age 32 seasons for a pitcher that has already had surgery? Not sure I get that that much.

[Craig Arko]

I'm going to guess right around June 1st. After 2-3 more starts in Rochester.

[cmathewson]

Why on earth did they let their top pitching prospect throw 114 pitches 18 months after TJ surgery? His bad outing is directly related to that. It's almost as though they intentionally gave him a dead arm so they can delay his promotion to the majors.

[Guest USAFChief]

Why on earth did they let their top pitching prospect throw 114 pitches 18 months after TJ surgery? His bad outing is directly related to that. It's almost as though they intentionally gave him a dead arm so they can delay his promotion to the majors.

 

Facts not in evidence, your honor.

 

If indeed true, however, then any pitcher who can't comfortably throw 114 pitches, in one outing, probably shouldn't be promoted to the major leagues.

[Boom Boom]

Facts not in evidence, your honor.

 

If indeed true, however, then any pitcher who can't comfortably throw 114 pitches, in one outing, probably shouldn't be promoted to the major leagues.

I doubt that many, if any, of the Twins current MLB pitchers could comfortably throw 114 pitches in an outing. They're never asked to.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Is it just me or could we solve several problems at once by moving Hernandez to the pen and sending down Fein? Hernandez as another lefty specialist would only help our bullpen, and Fein has an ERA north of 4 now I believe?

 

Fein's ERA doesn't tell the whole story. His WHIP is at 1.12, tied for third on the pitching staff, and he's got 15 K's in 17 innings pitched. All the same, it would be nice to see another lefty in the pen alongside Duensing. It depends upon how the starting rotation shakes out over the balance of May. I hope we see Gibson in a MN Twins uniform by the All Star break...

[cmathewson]

Fein's ERA doesn't tell the whole story. His WHIP is at 1.12' date=' tied for third on the pitching staff, and he's got 15 K's in 17 innings pitched. [/quote']

 

Right. Fien is the victim of inherited runner syndrome. It was our former second lefthander (who shall not be named) who gave up the grand slam with Fien's runners who was partially responsible for those runs.

[Guest USAFChief]

I doubt that many, if any, of the Twins current MLB pitchers could comfortably throw 114 pitches in an outing. They're never asked to.

 

IMO, the reason they never do is because they can't get that far into a game without getting lit up, rather than because they aren't able to throw that many pitches and be ready for their next start.

 

If Gibson had thrown 100 pitches in that start, nobody would have said a word. 14 extra pitches, in one start in which he was by all accounts very effective, means he's unable to come back effective 5 days later?

 

I doubt that's true, but if it is, he shouldn't be in the major leagues, and he shouldn't be allowed to reach even 100 pitches. If 114 pitches is putting such stress on his arm that he can't recover, then 100 pitches is obviously too many as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

All the same' date=' it would be nice to see another lefty in the pen alongside Duensing.[/quote']

 

We have another lefty in the pen already, although you would be forgiven if you forgot about him because of his sparse usage this season. Maybe it's time the Twins suspended the "closer" role and used that roster spot to try to get leads before the ninth instead of waiting for them.

 

As for Gibson, I agree with Seth that they're looking for more consistency, a string of good outings. Of course he's better than Pelfrey right now, and probably Worley, but by that standard, a team like the Twins will be constantly swapping 3/5 of its rotation. The Hernandez rotation spot is definitely in play, though, and I imagine it will be occupied by someone else soon (De Vries?).

[Mike Sixel]

usaFchief, that logic is pretty faulty. Taking it to its exreme, then 50 or 1 is too many pitches. I won't speak for everyone else, but I know that fatigue sets in at some point when I hike, or climb, or bike, or even walk up 10 flights of stairs. I'd guess that happens to Gibson and every other athlete also. It is possible that 90 or 100 pitches are great, but that 114 is too many. The harder you work your muscles, the longer it takes to recover from that work. Maybe 114 is too many for him right now, and 100 is not.

 

Now, we really don't know if that was the cause of the issues or not, that's another discussion entirely. Either way, he's better than 1 - 3 of the starters now, and should be up, learning here, getting ready to be effective next year.

[Top Gun]

The Twins are just slow and are failing to make any roster moves this year.

[nicksaviking]

If indeed true, however, then any pitcher who can't comfortably throw 114 pitches, in one outing, probably shouldn't be promoted to the major leagues.

 

I doubt that many, if any, of the Twins current MLB pitchers could comfortably throw 114 pitches in an outing. They're never asked to.

 

Yup, no argument there. The Twins starters should not be in the majors.

[Guest USAFChief]

 

Now, we really don't know if that was the cause of the issues or not, that's another discussion entirely. Either way, he's better than 1 - 3 of the starters now, and should be up, learning here, getting ready to be effective next year.

 

I agree, but am willing to go farther: I doubt that throwing 114 pitches was the reason he wasn't effective in his next start. I would have major concerns if that turned out to be the case.

 

And to be clear, I have no problem with the Twins calling up Gibson and putting him in the rotation.

[Steve Lein]

Why on earth did they let their top pitching prospect throw 114 pitches 18 months after TJ surgery? His bad outing is directly related to that. It's almost as though they intentionally gave him a dead arm so they can delay his promotion to the majors.

 

The night before Rochester played a 16-inning game, so Gibson helped their bullpen out a bunch by throwing the complete game. Also, he was given an extra day of rest before this next start that was a clunker, so I don't buy the dead arm notion.

 

Agree with Nick overall though, their handling of Gibson is dumb. It's nice that a guy like Hernandez may get 1 or 2 more "opportunities," but the fact is everyone already knows what he is, and that's a spot-starter on his best day, not someone to prevent a future rotation fixture from getting his own "opportunity." Gibson will not be worse than most of what they're using right now, so they might as well get some actual value out of those limited innings.

[johnnydakota]

Why on earth did they let their top pitching prospect throw 114 pitches 18 months after TJ surgery? His bad outing is directly related to that. It's almost as though they intentionally gave him a dead arm so they can delay his promotion to the majors.

 

I hope Terry Ryan let the AAA manager get an ear full over that as well , If Glynn is so cavalier over Gibsons pitch limit and recovery , maybe we need to find a new manager , or is it that the Twins front office , ie. Evil Pete and Terry Ryan failed to express how they wanted Glynn to handle Gibson? Im sure we will never know, but I for one have seen the penny pinching imcopetense of these 2 dynamic dual in the past , and choose to believe they forgot to do there jobs....

[nicksaviking]

Of course, how fortunate will it be for the Twins when those 2-3 extra starts by Hernandez or Pelfrey cause Gibson to lose Super 2 status. As the team threw caution to the wind with Arcia and Hicks, I'm sure it wasn't a consideration early on in the season. However, I'll bet the front office thinks they are getting too close to the cut off to promote Gibson now. They'll sacrafice those 3 starts to save possibly millions of dollars now that they've come this far.

[nicksaviking]

If Glynn is so cavalier over Gibsons pitch limit and recovery , maybe we need to find a new manager.

 

As in promote him to Minnesota? I understand the concern after TJ surgery, but I'll take a manager at the MLB level who's not afraid of the mythical 100 pitch forcefield.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

As for Gibson, I agree with Seth that they're looking for more consistency, a string of good outings. Of course he's better than Pelfrey right now, and probably Worley, but by that standard, a team like the Twins will be constantly swapping 3/5 of its rotation. The Hernandez rotation spot is definitely in play, though, and I imagine it will be occupied by someone else soon (De Vries?).

 

I also agree. Gibson needs to have back-to-back good starts before he comes up here. He may or may not be ready. Even if not, probably better than most of the rotation--but what if he comes up and has a Hendriks second half?? What have we gained?? Give DeVries the next shot. Then if Gibson has the good starts, bring him up. If not, there is still Deduno.

[jun]

We could always find something unimpressive from our current starters, I guess the fact that Hernandez has allowed a 1.172 OPS against right-handed hitters is really unimpressive, Correia has not been good lately either, I don't even care to talk about Worley and Pelfrey's performance this season. Hernandez is still a rookie, remember how many starts the Twins gave Hendriks to prove himself? Go easy on the rookie. Give him at least one or two more starts.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Really, all this about 14 pitches? Gibson didn't do well because he's not ready. He's still recovering from surgery. He's already on an innings limit, and being up in the show would certainly not have given him better chance of success. Gardy might want to have done the same thing, and it's not unreasonable. 100 pitches is not some sort of magic number. I suspect it has more to do with how a pitcher's mechanics alter when he tires, and 100 pitches seems to be a good place to start. The moral here is that over time pitchers need to build up stamina in that arm.

 

The kid needs to build up some arm strength post a year plus layoff, and he still has to work on some finishing touches with regards to getting hitters out. As I said previously, I doubt we see him this year given this and the fact that he's on an innings limit. Throwing 114 pitches the start before has absolutely nothing to do with it.

[cmathewson]

The night before Rochester played a 16-inning game, so Gibson helped their bullpen out a bunch by throwing the complete game. Also, he was given an extra day of rest before this next start that was a clunker, so I don't buy the dead arm notion.

 

So they'll take a risk with their top pitching prospect and give him more work than he's had in years just to save a AAA bullpen? That is insane.

 

Chief, I understand it's correlation and not causation. But you just don't take these kinds of risks with your top pitching prospect, not in AAA.

 

It's plausible at least that Gibson's arm was less than 100%. They did move him back a day because he reported soreness. in his bullpen session prior to the start.

[cmathewson]

Gibson didn't do well because he's not ready.

 

It's not binary. The question is whether he's more ready than Hernandez. The answer is emphatically yes. One bad outing doesn't compare with four bad outings and three so so outings.

[jun]

IMO, the reason they never do is because they can't get that far into a game without getting lit up, rather than because they aren't able to throw that many pitches and be ready for their next start.

 

If Gibson had thrown 100 pitches in that start, nobody would have said a word. 14 extra pitches, in one start in which he was by all accounts very effective, means he's unable to come back effective 5 days later?

 

I doubt that's true, but if it is, he shouldn't be in the major leagues, and he shouldn't be allowed to reach even 100 pitches. If 114 pitches is putting such stress on his arm that he can't recover, then 100 pitches is obviously too many as well.

 

Gibson was given one extra day of rest.

[jun]

Worley and Pelfrey deserve to be demoted before Hernandez period.

[Steve Penz]

It's not binary. The question is whether he's more ready than Hernandez. The answer is emphatically yes. One bad outing doesn't compare with four bad outings and three so so outings.

 

 

I like this and I agree with earlier posts that have said this is about development for Gibson and not necessarily winning games. He is at approx 50 innings at 1.5 months into the season. That means he will hit 130 at approximately 8/1. At that point he will be shut down. In order to let him develop properly this year, how many AAAA innings do they want him to have? I hope that he soon crosses whatever threshold they are waiting for so he can get some quality time up here before his season is done. Speaking selfishly, I am excited to watch him pitch.