Article: Free Agent Pitching: 20/20 Hindsight

[Steven Buhr]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1719-Free-Agent-Pitching-20-20-Hindsight

[Seth Stohs]

Weird... the Twins front office personnel that actually has the stress and pressure of making the right moves (and more important, not making the wrong moves) may not be as inept as so many want to think. Maybe they sort of have an idea... And maybe free agency is such a crap shoot that you never know what you're going to get, so you realize that developing and acquiring young players is better... Hmmm.

[COtwin]

Ah. This Crow tastes delicious!

[Steven Buhr]

Weird... the Twins front office personnel that actually has the stress and pressure of making the right moves (and more important, not making the wrong moves) may not be as inept as so many want to think. Maybe they sort of have an idea... And maybe free agency is such a crap shoot that you never know what you're going to get, so you realize that developing and acquiring young players is better... Hmmm.

 

Whoa, there, Seth. That's just crazy talk.

[Willihammer]

Way too early to judge most of last offsesaon's signings.

[Oxtung]

Bah the whole premise of this article is illogical. You can't use future results to judge a past event unless those results are knowable before the event occurs. All that mattered is what Ryan knew before he signed Correia and Pelfrey. Anything that has happened since then is irrelevant.

[Highabove]

Weird... the Twins front office personnel that actually has the stress and pressure of making the right moves (and more important, not making the wrong moves) may not be as inept as so many want to think. Maybe they sort of have an idea... And maybe free agency is such a crap shoot that you never know what you're going to get, so you realize that developing and acquiring young players is better... Hmmm.

 

A lot of Fans believe that Terry Ryan is inept?? I must have missed the memo.

[70charger]

So Kevin Correia, Scott Feldman, Jeremy Guthrie, and Carlos Villaneuva were the good gets while Edwin Jackson, Joe Saunders, Dan Haren, and Shaun Marcum were busts?

 

There are two possible deductions. First, the job of a general manager may be very hard. On the other hand, it may just be good strategy to sign ****ty pitchers.

 

I love baseball.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Bah the whole premise of this article is illogical. You can't use future results to judge a past event unless those results are knowable before the event occurs. All that mattered is what Ryan knew before he signed Correia and Pelfrey. Anything that has happened since then is irrelevant.

 

Huh?

[IdahoPilgrim]

There was a lot of hand-wringing last year about what the Twins did and did not do in the free agent market, most of which was based upon analysis of previous statistics and predictions based on them for the coming season.

 

As I'm always reminded when I invest in a mutual fund, past results are no guarantee of future performance. Any idiot with a computer can make FA decisions based merely on past results. The truly effective GMs, the ones who stand the test of time, are those who, while consulting historical numbers, are able to look beyond them and correctly anticipate future results, both positive and negative, and make decisions based on those anticipated results.

 

I agree it's still too early to call this year a success (or a failure). But so far TR is looking smarter than his competitors.

[Guest USAFChief]

There was a lot of hand-wringing last year about what the Twins did and did not do in the free agent market, most of which was based upon analysis of previous statistics and predictions based on them for the coming season.

 

As I'm always reminded when I invest in a mutual fund, past results are no guarantee of future performance. Any idiot with a computer can make FA decisions based merely on past results. The truly effective GMs, the ones who stand the test of time, are those who, while consulting historical numbers, are able to look beyond them and correctly anticipate future results, both positive and negative, and make decisions based on those anticipated results.

 

I agree it's still too early to call this year a success (or a failure). But so far TR is looking smarter than his competitors.

 

1. Those two statements seem fairly contradictory to me.

 

2. TR is looking smarter if one considers only Kevin Corriea's start. Not so much if you also look at Mike Pelfrey (and include Vance Worley as a trade acquisition.) It's also a somewhat self serving argument when you rule out several pitchers ("too expensive," "wouldn't have signed here anyway") and pass off Pelfrey as "I think he'll improve as the season goes on" while ignoring the possibility those other pitchers you're glad you didn't sign might improve as well.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins starters are pretty much bottom 5 in every category in the AL this year, not sure how things are really any better so far than the end of last year. Maybe someone can explain that to me. That was before Pelfrey's awesome start today.

 

Not sure how you can ignore the results Pelfrey is delivering, or how you can just decide some guys would never have signed here.

 

Also, not sure how drafting and developing players is not a crap shoot, I guess a higher percent of HS kids and college students come up from the minors than I thought.. Also, name the guy in the rotation this year drafted and developed by this vaunted system. Or name the best pitchers the last few years, and if they were drafted and developed by this system.

[ThePuck]

Twins starters are pretty much bottom 5 in every category in the AL this year, not sure how things are really any better so far than the end of last year. Maybe someone can explain that to me. That was before Pelfrey's awesome start today.

 

Not sure how you can ignore the results Pelfrey is delivering, or how you can just decide some guys would never have signed here.

 

Also, not sure how drafting and developing players is not a crap shoot, I guess a higher percent of HS kids and college students come up from the minors than I thought.. Also, name the guy in the rotation this year drafted and developed by this vaunted system. Or name the best pitchers the last few years, and if they were drafted and developed by this system.

 

more like bottom 5 in MLB? Going into today, tehy were 28th in rotation ERA...that just got a little bit worse today with Pelfrey doing what Pelfrey does...

[ThePuck]

Kevin Correai ERA in April: 2.23. In May: 5.71.

[RedBull34]

To be fair to Dan Haren, his last few starts have been much better than the start so I could see him rebounding a bit.

[Steven Buhr]

I don't think it's at all contradictory to say it's too early to call TR's dip in to FA during the offseason a success or failure AND to say that so far his decisions look better than a lot of the other GMs who went fishing for pitching. Unless, of course, you choose to ignore the words "so far".

 

With the exception of Marcum, I think all of the SPs mentioned have at least 7-8 starts under their belts. I don't think it's premature to at least take a look at how the various FA options have fared thus far. 1/4 of a season is not insignificant, especially considering how many of the pitchers signed one-year contracts.

 

I do, however, believe it is far too early to cast any sort of judgment on the trades Ryan made. Obviously, Worley hasn't been good, but I don't know anyone who believes he was much more than a throw-in by he Phillies. It was May that was the Twins' primary target in that deal and, as with the Span trade, we won't know how Ryan fared on that deal until we find out what kind of Major League pitcher the prospect turns out to be.

 

The point, and I'll stand by it, is that SO FAR it looks like Ryan may have been right about it being a "thin" starting pitching market and he certainly could have spent a lot more money without getting any better results during the first 1/4 of the season.

[Steven Buhr]

Let me just also add this as my final comment on this subject: Just as I believe 1/4 of the season is long enough to warrant a look at how all of these FAs are faring, I also believe it is long enough for Ryan and the Twins to figure out that their rotation, as currently constituted, is not good. Whether it's from internal options at AAA (or AA) or by looking for external options, there's no reason to wait much longer to try SOMETHING to improve the starting pitching.

 

If Ryan truly does believe that playing .500 ball is not good enough, then it really is up to him to do his part to improve on that record by continuing to try to fix the rotation.

[Oxtung]

How a FA pitches after he has signed is irrelevant to passing judgement on the signing. The signing and the subsequent season are two distinct and separate events and must be judged as such. All that matters is what Ryan knew and believed before he signed Correia and Pelfrey.

 

Here is a hypothetical to help illustrate my point. A GM signs a FA pitcher. After the signing the pitcher is in a car crash and can never play baseball again. Did the GM make a bad decision by signing said pitcher? Of course not, unless you think the GM should have forseen the car accident before he signed the pitcher. If you want a slightly less abstract version think about the extension just given to the Blue Jays JA Happ. Does the GM deserve flak because Happ took a line drive to the head and may never be the same pitcher?

 

Pelfrey is an example of the opposite. Ryan knew that Pelfrey was coming off of TJ surgery, knew that no one had ever come back that quickly let alone be good. On top of that Pelfrey has been a below average pitcher for his career. These are all things that were known to Ryan before Pelfrey signed. Obviously things have not worked out well for Pelfrey so far this season.

 

So, it's not about what a pitcher does after the signing. It is about what the GM knewbefore the pitcher was signed that is important.

[Willihammer]

Here is a hypothetical to help illustrate my point. A GM signs a FA pitcher. After the signing the pitcher is in a car crash

 

Carl Pavano?

[jorgenswest]

The way out of the hole is to develop young pitching and improve the defense.

 

They have a lot of work to do in both areas but acquiring Meyer and May are a step in the right direction.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

How a FA pitches after he has signed is irrelevant to passing judgement on the signing. The signing and the subsequent season are two distinct and separate events and must be judged as such. All that matters is what Ryan knew and believed before he signed Correia and Pelfrey.

 

Here is a hypothetical to help illustrate my point. A GM signs a FA pitcher. After the signing the pitcher is in a car crash and can never play baseball again. Did the GM make a bad decision by signing said pitcher? Of course not, unless you think the GM should have forseen the car accident before he signed the pitcher. If you want a slightly less abstract version think about the extension just given to the Blue Jays JA Happ. Does the GM deserve flak because Happ took a line drive to the head and may never be the same pitcher?

 

Pelfrey is an example of the opposite. Ryan knew that Pelfrey was coming off of TJ surgery, knew that no one had ever come back that quickly let alone be good. On top of that Pelfrey has been a below average pitcher for his career. These are all things that were known to Ryan before Pelfrey signed. Obviously things have not worked out well for Pelfrey so far this season.

 

So, it's not about what a pitcher does after the signing. It is about what the GM knew before the pitcher was signed that is important.

 

I respectfully disagree with just about everything here. Terry Ryan, and the Twins' front office, earn their salaries, in large part, by predicting future performance. Whether it's an 18 year-old outfielder who is eligible for the MLB Draft, or a free agent pitcher coming off a tough season or a significant injury. That's precisely the expertise that the Twins, and their fans, rely on with Ryan & Company.

 

Your argument cites completely unforeseeable incidents such as car crashes and line drives to the head. Come on. There's many, many more (foreseeable) Jason Marquis stories each year than there are (unforeseeable) J.A. Happ stories.

 

Of course, I agree that part of it is what the GM knew beforehand, but everyone has access to that information. The more important part is what the GM does with that information, and how he is able to use that information to predict future performance.

[drjim]

How a FA pitches after he has signed is irrelevant to passing judgement on the signing. The signing and the subsequent season are two distinct and separate events and must be judged as such. All that matters is what Ryan knew and believed before he signed Correia and Pelfrey.

 

Here is a hypothetical to help illustrate my point. A GM signs a FA pitcher. After the signing the pitcher is in a car crash and can never play baseball again. Did the GM make a bad decision by signing said pitcher? Of course not, unless you think the GM should have forseen the car accident before he signed the pitcher. If you want a slightly less abstract version think about the extension just given to the Blue Jays JA Happ. Does the GM deserve flak because Happ took a line drive to the head and may never be the same pitcher?

 

Pelfrey is an example of the opposite. Ryan knew that Pelfrey was coming off of TJ surgery, knew that no one had ever come back that quickly let alone be good. On top of that Pelfrey has been a below average pitcher for his career. These are all things that were known to Ryan before Pelfrey signed. Obviously things have not worked out well for Pelfrey so far this season.

 

So, it's not about what a pitcher does after the signing. It is about what the GM knewbefore the pitcher was signed that is important.

 

This is so bizarre to me. A car crash seems a bit extreme and doubtful that anyone would fault a GM for that. But if they pass on guys who have subsequently gotten injured or have not performed while actually pitching that seems relevant to me no matter what they did in the past. As was mentioned everyone has the same numbers. It is how you fuse them with scouting work to maximize results that matters the most.

 

I was not especially impressed with what Ryan did for pitching and it is still way too early to suggest he did well, but I also fall in the category of those that think the market was very thin so the overall options were limited.

[70charger]

I may not be adding anything, but Oxtung is quite correct. Probabilistically and assuming 1:1 payment for comparative value, the general managers who chose better pitchers given the entirety of the pre-season information - to include none of what might be deemed hindsight - are doing better than those who pick up worse pitchers.

 

Where I think those of you who are disagreeing with Oxtung actually disagree is in the fact that probabilistic outcomes don't determine playoff teams or World Series winners. The games themselves do, and as we see year after year after year, luck can be a harsh mistress or a generous lover, depending on which team she favors. There's probably a Yogi Berra quote that addresses this somewhere...

 

In any case, the decisions made in the pre-season must be evaluated in light of pre-season information because it is the only - ONLY - way to control for luck. A general manager may turn out to be right, or he may just look right once they start playing the games and get a little lucky.

[Oxtung]

I respectfully disagree with just about everything here. Terry Ryan, and the Twins' front office, earn their salaries, in large part, by predicting future performance. Whether it's an 18 year-old outfielder who is eligible for the MLB Draft, or a free agent pitcher coming off a tough season or a significant injury. That's precisely the expertise that the Twins, and their fans, rely on with Ryan & Company.

 

Your argument cites completely unforeseeable incidents such as car crashes and line drives to the head. Come on. There's many, many more (foreseeable) Jason Marquis stories each year than there are (unforeseeable) J.A. Happ stories.

 

Of course, I agree that part of it is what the GM knew beforehand, but everyone has access to that information. The more important part is what the GM does with that information, and how he is able to use that information to predict future performance.

 

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with since you just made the same argument I did....

 

Foreseeable

predicting the future

what a GM does with the information

 

All of these terms are about the knowledge he had before he signed the contracts.

 

Jason Marquis wasn't a bad signing because he had a bad season. Any pitcher can have a bad season. Jason Marquis was a bad signing because he had huge flaws that Ryan knew about before Marquis signed here and yet Ryan signed him anyways.

[Oxtung]

This is so bizarre to me. A car crash seems a bit extreme and doubtful that anyone would fault a GM for that. But if they pass on guys who have subsequently gotten injured or have not performed while actually pitching that seems relevant to me no matter what they did in the past. As was mentioned everyone has the same numbers. It is how you fuse them with scouting work to maximize results that matters the most.

 

I was not especially impressed with what Ryan did for pitching and it is still way too early to suggest he did well, but I also fall in the category of those that think the market was very thin so the overall options were limited.

 

I don't think you and I are disagreeing at all here. Injuries are things a GM would know about before he signs a pitcher (unless obviously the injury occurs after signing). If a GM knows of an injury then it is fair game to judge him based on that knowledge. But again...it is the fact that he knew about the injury prior to signing the pitcher that is the important part.

 

You also talk about using scouting. Well scouting is something that a GM is going to know about before the player signs. If a GM signs an elite player that the scouts love, the doctors clear and has a history of pitching well and then that pitcher has a terrible year is that on the GM? No, sometimes players just have bad years.

 

On the other hand if a GM signs a guy with many red flags and that player performs poorly is that on the GM? Of course.

 

So both pitchers perform poorly but in one case the GM is forgiven. What's the difference? The knowledge before the pitchers signed. That is what matters.

[DutchFarmer]

Just think if we were to publicly finance a new stadium for the team. Then they would be able to afford to sign a Greinke or a Sanchez....ah well, pipe dream, as they are stuck with a stadium that doesn't bring in the revenues to allow the team to sign anything more than low-mid level FA's.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with since you just made the same argument I did....

 

Foreseeable

predicting the future

what a GM does with the information

 

All of these terms are about the knowledge he had before he signed the contracts.

 

Jason Marquis wasn't a bad signing because he had a bad season. Any pitcher can have a bad season. Jason Marquis was a bad signing because he had huge flaws that Ryan knew about before Marquis signed here and yet Ryan signed him anyways.

I would agree that in the strictest of senses, "what was known at the time the decision is made" is what's important in evaluating decision making. But I'm not at all sure "signing free agents in professional baseball" falls entirely into that circumstance.

 

GM'ing is part science, part art. Interpreting known data, and using it to predict the future, is part of it, and there's certainly some science to it.

 

But I think part of it also is the art of guessing how a player will fit into your roster, how his performance will translate into wins/losses, how he will be received by your customers and generate add'l revenue. The art of determining how much to offer a free agent, in terms of dollars and years, so that your offer has a chance to be the best, but not the best by so far as to be out of line. Even predicting the likelihood of health is as much art as science, IMO. We're also dealing with human beings here, so it's fair to say GMs must guess at human traits. "Will the guy continue to work hard if he gets financial security?" is one that comes to mind.

 

Bottom line, I think it's fair to evaluate GM decisions both at the time they are made, and--while keeping that in mind and tempering your conclusions--to also make some evaluations based on results.

 

I think over time some GMs prove to make more good decisions than than bad, and I think one reason for that could be they are better "artists" than other GMs, as well as or instead of being better "scientists."

[cmathewson]

Bah the whole premise of this article is illogical. You can't use future results to judge a past event unless those results are knowable before the event occurs. All that mattered is what Ryan knew before he signed Correia and Pelfrey. Anything that has happened since then is irrelevant.

 

So the premise of this article is that maybe, just maybe, Ryan knew some stuff before he signed those players, stuff that you can't find in FanGraphs. But, like any good experiment, you don't actually know your prediction is right until it is proven. The proof is in the performance of the pitchers.

[whydidnt]

Well, I just don't think that we can fully judge these decisions based upon less than 10 starts for all these guys. I'll even go out on a limb and say that even with the lousy starts that by the end of the year McCarthy and Marcum will outperform anyone on the Twins staff, and Villaneuva will be as good as any of the guys. I was never a proponent of signing Blanton or Saunders, they are more of the same.

[cmathewson]

It's fair to say no team is relying on any of these pitchers to win, with the possible exceptions of Boston and Detroit. At 1/4 of the way through the season, I think we have enough evidence to justify Ryan's claim that the FA market for starters was "thin", and not to expect much from any of them. At best they are stop gaps until the young studs are ready. We all knew that coming into the season.