How Long Should Starters Go?

[IdahoPilgrim]

Reading through last night’s game thread, reading the post-game quotes, and thinking back on discussions we have had on this topic in the past, both this season and last season, I find myself genuinely curious as to what the standard should be for how deep starters are allowed to go in the game. Do pitch counts matter? Does it matter that it is a close game or tied? I can recall situations when the starter has been pitching effectively and then been pulled at 90-something pitches and the bullpen then blew the lead, leaving the manager open to criticism. I can also recall situations when the starter was left in too long, blowing the lead and leaving the manager open to criticism.

 

Obviously, hindsight is 20-20, but clearly we can’t require prescience; this is always a judgment call, and like all judgment calls sometimes you get it wrong. What should the guideline be? Should it be standard operating practice to have the bullpen warming up in close games whenever the starter reaches 90+ pitches, regardless of how he is pitching? Do you automatically pull them after seven innings and put your trust in a bullpen that has been, for the most part, effective this year? I can remember when 100 pitches was considered the unofficial “minimum” to be desired from the starter, and the complete game was something to be sought – has that now changed?

 

Obviously, every game situation is different, and there is no hard and fast rule, but are there guidelines which should be followed and aren’t?

[ThePuck]

All I know is that last night, on the site I go to chat during the game, everyone I was chatting with said pull Correia right after he completed 7 innings.

 

Gardy, of course, said he wasn't second-guessing himself...

[IdahoPilgrim]

All I know is that last night, on the site I go to chat during the game, everyone I was chatting with said pull Correia right after he completed 7 innings.

 

Gardy, of course, said he wasn't second-guessing himself...

 

I was trying to not make this about Gardenhire. I am genuinely curious as to what the conventional wisdom is on this topic? I'm hoping to learn more about the game. Taking a particular situation and looking back in time and saying the manager should have done something differently isn't really helpful without more information.

 

In your discussion last night, what was the reason people were giving? Were they seeing signs that Correia was tired? Were they concerned with the pitch count? Did they think that Correia had been skating by on luck last night and they trusted the bullpen more? What was the thought process?

[Top Gun]

Depends on the bullpen too, with 7 man well rested pens you can pull early and some days only a few are available makes you go longer.

[twinscowboysbulls]

The thing is this:

 

It is fine for Gardy to let Correia go out for the start of the 8th, he was on a roll!

 

The problem is this:

 

Gardy needs to have a guy ready so that as soon as their is trouble you go straight to the pen(which should've been after the first double.)

 

You have to understand the positive and negative. P) Correia was dealing through their lineup and N) He was going through the lineup for a 3rd time. He had thrown 93 pitches. You are trying to maximize his worth in the game, but you find out quickly that he is done(ala the leadoff double.) This should've been fairly obvious to Gardy that it's time to make the switch. Who cares if it makes you look like an idiot for letting the guy go out and pitch to one more batter, the point is that hopefully the next guy you bring in gets the next three outs and you go into the bottom of 8 with a tied score instead of down 2.

[amjgt]

Correia was already starting to look shaky in the 7th. The umps gifted him that first out (Dunn), which he followed with a 4 pitch walk. It was at this point Dick or Bert said something like "no action in either bullpen" and I thought to myself that was going to be a problem.

 

Correia got out of the inning, to his credit, but I was shocked that after we tied it up in the 7th, Gardy trotted Correia back out there. Then, as was mentioned above, the leadoff guy smoked a double in the RF gap, and STILL no pitching change.

 

I just don't get it, I mean, it felt obvious to EVERYONE that Correia was losing it. I don't often get down on Gardy, but man, that was some bad man'gin.

[ThePuck]

I was trying to not make this about Gardenhire. I am genuinely curious as to what the conventional wisdom is on this topic? I'm hoping to learn more about the game. Taking a particular situation and looking back in time and saying the manager should have done something differently isn't really helpful without more information.

 

In your discussion last night, what was the reason people were giving? Were they seeing signs that Correia was tired? Were they concerned with the pitch count? Did they think that Correia had been skating by on luck last night and they trusted the bullpen more? What was the thought process?

 

What some of us were seeing was that he was struggling...that he was getting away with some pitches. One person, around the 6th inning, thanked Correia cause he said he had stopped throwing meatballs up there (like he did at the beginning of the game). I said he's offering meatballs, they just aren't doing anything with them. For me, I see that and I don't want him going back out there in the 8th inning in a tie game. So far, he's gone out for the 8th innings 3 times, twice it was a close game, and twice it backfired. Unless he's got a 3 run lead or bigger, I don't want him going out for the 8th ever. He's not the kind of pitcher who has the stuff where he can shut the team down if he starts getting in trouble.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not sure about the conventional wisdom, but I like to stretch out and challenge good starters when they are cruising, and just about any pitcher if they are doing well and you've got a comfortable lead. However, when your bullpen is generally better than your starters (the Twins case the past few years), it's better to remove a guy too early than too late in a close game.

 

I didn't see the game last night, but based on 1) pitch count, 2) times through the order, 3) the Twins offense scuffling that night, and 4) Correia's history, he wasn't pitching past the 8th inning under any circumstances. So given that the 8th is his last inning of the night, there's really no downside to having someone ready right away and keeping him on a very short leash. The bullpen might need to face an extra batter or two, but the game is on line at that point. I don't think anyone, anywhere is ever going to second-guess removing a guy like Correia in the 8th inning of a close game.

 

I know Gardy was trying to save the bullpen a bit, but this just isn't the starting staff you do that with in close games. Every time he's tried it this season, it seems like the starters have gotten into trouble and the bullpen has had to come in anyway. After the leadoff double, there's no chance for a GIDP and Correia is unlikely to record a strikeout, so leaving him in almost guarantees the White Sox will either advance the go-ahead runner to third with less than two out or just score the go-ahead run right there, both situations you want to avoid.

 

Furthermore, if you are concerned about bullpen workload and when to pull your starter, you've got to be looking at your upcoming schedule too. The Twins have an off-day Thursday, and no travel since they are back at home Friday. No sense trying to force bullpen rest in a close game when you don't really need it. (And not to get too far off-topic, but the Twins bullpen is probably not overworked this year, at least not in terms of innings. Burton is ahead of his 2012 pace, but Roenicke and Fien are not, and Perkins has been severely under-utilized. If the bullpen has any usage issues right now, it might be appearances rather than innings, which is compounded by letting starters getting into jams and mixing-and-matching relievers to get out of it... but I digress.)

[IdahoPilgrim]

What some of us were seeing was that he was struggling...that he was getting away with some pitches. One person, around the 6th inning, thanked Correia cause he said he had stopped throwing meatballs up there (like he did at the beginning of the game). I said he's offering meatballs, they just aren't doing anything with them. For me, I see that and I don't want him going back out there in the 8th inning in a tie game. So far, he's gone out for the 8th innings 3 times, twice it was a close game, and twice it backfired. Unless he's got a 3 run lead or bigger, I don't want him going out for the 8th ever. He's not the kind of pitcher who has the stuff where he can shut the team down if he starts getting in trouble.

 

Thank you; that's helpful to consider and chew on.

 

In general, I'm coming to the conclusion that, at least with who we have on the staff right now, it should perhaps be a "standing rule" that whenever a starter goes into the 8th, and the game is within 2 runs or tied, then the bullpen should be going regardless, just in case, so a change can be made the moment there is a base-runner.

 

I do wonder if Gardenhire was looking ahead and assuming he was going to need more from his pen today, with Pelfrey going in an afternoon game.

[Willihammer]

I was trying to not make this about Gardenhire. I am genuinely curious as to what the conventional wisdom is on this topic?

 

I think the conventional wisdom says 100 pitches which can be extended in the event of a shutout.

[Guest USAFChief]

Good topic.

 

One man's take:

 

1. There should be no hard and fast pitch count rules. You do not remove a pitcher simply because he has reached an arbitrary number, and conversely, you do not stay with a pitcher simply because he hasn't. As a general rule, you want to avoid forcing your starters to repeatedly throw more pitches than they can comfortably handle (somewhere between 90-120, depending on a lot of variables), but that number varies with each pitcher, and can vary each game depending again on a lot of variables. Strict adherence to pitch counts, particularly for any individual game, hasn't been proven to be of any value in preventing injuries, and needlessly ties your hands. Pitch counts also, IMO, do not account for the stress level a pitcher encounters in each game. I also believe that constantly pitching with runners on, in a close game, wears out a pitcher quicker than easy innings in a blowout, and should factor into how long you let that starter pitch. If you're up five, and your pitcher hasn't faced a lot of stress, then sure, let him keep going until you're forced to take him out, even if he's passed 100 pitches, and vice versa.

 

2. Do not manage for a "W" from your starter. The goal is to get a W for the team, not the starter. Many people get upset with managers for managing to a stat with the save. In general, I think it's much worse when managers manage to a stat with their starters. "It's his game to win or lose" is one of the things you hear from managers that really, really upsets me. IMO, it's the manager's game to win or lose, for the team, much moreso than any individual player. If the situation calls for a pinch hitter, you don't see many managers leave the hitter in because "it's his game to win or lose," yet you often see the opposite when it's a pitcher. Boo!

 

3. In general, it's much better to remove a starter too soon than too late. Yeah, overusing your bullpen can be damaging, particularly in the long term. But I'm of the belief that for the most part, you manage today's game today, and worry about tomorrow's game tomorrow. Turning a close game over to a fresh pitcher is, IMO, a lot less damaging in the short and long term than waiting until your starter gets into trouble and then trying to manage your way out of it. In most cases, you end up using your bullpen anyway, and often you end up using more pitchers, not less, because now you're forced into playing matchups hitter by hitter, and the end result is often a "L" anyway and you've gotten the worst of both worlds. You've used up several pitchers AND you've lost a game. Bottom line: try to anticipate what's likely to happen to your starter and react appropriately. Be wary of starters trying to get through a lineup for a 4th time.

 

4. Understand who your pitchers are and what they can give you. We'd all like "innings" from the starters. But Kevin Correia isn't Justin Verlander, and he's not going to give you as many effective innings. Forcing him to try is not likely to succeed. Either have your GM get you better pitchers, or accept that if you want to win, you're going to need 3+ innings from your bullpen many nights. Most nights, even.

 

5. Given #4, manage your bullpen to be in the best position to give you those innings. One way you accomplish that is to let your bullpen start innings (see#3 above), and then hope to get multiple innings from a reliever instead of partial innings. Appearances count more, IMO, than IP for relievers. Getting warmed up and facing a hitter isn't much less taxing than getting warmed up and pitching a full inning. If a reliever goes 2 innings, he probably needs the next night off, but you've got other relievers in the pen available because they weren't forced to pitch or warm up while said reliever was handling 2 innings the night before.

 

Those are some things that I feel would help manage a staff better. You can't always do these things, starters get knocked out early, get hurt, etc and same thing with relievers. But in general, I would rarely second guess a manager when his bullpen is used well and still loses games. I think it's absolutely fair game to question managers when they let starters lose close games the third or especially the 4th time through a lineup.

[Badsmerf]

I was on the fence about leaving him out there because of how he struggled during the 7th. He had gotten lucky most of the night with double play balls and was generally lucky to have the score as low as it was. I can see Gardy's reasoning, I just don't feel like Correia is the type of guy to push like that.

[stringer bell]

Correia had 8-9-1 coming up in the eighth. Wise hit the first pitch. I guess I would have started the bullpen before the inning started, but you don't want an already overtaxed BP throwing when they are not going to get in the game.

[Willihammer]

5. Given #4, manage your bullpen to be in the best position to give you those innings. One way you accomplish that is to let your bullpen start innings (see#3 above), and then hope to get multiple innings from a reliever instead of partial innings. Appearances count more, IMO, than IP for relievers.

I suspect this is true but if the opposition is going L-R-L-R, as the Stinking Whities did last night, then you are back to asking yourself, would it just be better to let the starter go out to face the lineup a 3rd time instead of asking Fien to get multiple lefthanders out, or Duensing to get multiple righthanders out over the course of 1+ innings.

 

More and more, I think today's game is obsoleting the specialists and rewarding the guys with either a swing and miss fastball, or a 3rd pitch (changeup or splitter) to get opposite handed hitters out. Unfortunately the Twins only have two of those guys on staff and they're the 8th and 9th inning guys.

[amjgt]

If Gardy was worried about overtaxing his BP, then he shouldn't have used 3 guys to get the final 6 outs.

[Guest USAFChief]

I suspect this is true but if the opposition is going L-R-L-R, as the Stinking Whities did last night, then you are back to asking yourself, would it just be better to let the starter go out to face the lineup a 3rd time instead of asking Fien to get multiple lefthanders out, or Duensing to get multiple righthanders out over the course of 1+ innings.

 

More and more, I think today's game is obsoleting the specialists and rewarding the guys with either a swing and miss fastball, or a 3rd pitch (changeup or splitter) to get opposite handed hitters out. Unfortunately the Twins only have two of those guys on staff and they're the 8th and 9th inning guys.

 

My post was about managing in general, rather than last night's game, but in the specific case of last night's game: I'd rather see a fresh reliever face L-R-L-R than see Corriea, with 7 innings under his belt, face those same hitters. You're losing the platoon advantage either way. In this specific case, Corriea gave up ringing doubles to both L and RH hitters anyway.

 

As for para two, I would agree the best answer is "get better pitchers," both in the rotation and in the pen. Unfortunately, that's a lot easier said than done, and you have to dance with what brung ya, even if your partner has two left feet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Correia had 8-9-1 coming up in the eighth. Wise hit the first pitch. I guess I would have started the bullpen before the inning started, but you don't want an already overtaxed BP throwing when they are not going to get in the game.

They were going to get into the game regardless. Correia was under no circumstances pitching beyond the 8th inning.

[IdahoPilgrim]

5. Given #4, manage your bullpen to be in the best position to give you those innings. One way you accomplish that is to let your bullpen start innings (see#3 above), and then hope to get multiple innings from a reliever instead of partial innings. Appearances count more, IMO, than IP for relievers. Getting warmed up and facing a hitter isn't much less taxing than getting warmed up and pitching a full inning. If a reliever goes 2 innings, he probably needs the next night off, but you've got other relievers in the pen available because they weren't forced to pitch or warm up while said reliever was handling 2 innings the night before.

 

Thank you. This is an aspect I hadn't really considered but it makes a lot of sense. Preventive medicine, as opposed to waiting until you're really sick and then going to the ER.