Pros and Cons of a Jhoan Duran Extension

[Cody Christie]

If this offseason is any indication, elite relievers will continue to get paid. Here are the pros and cons of approaching Jhoan Duran with a contract extension.

Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

There is no question about what Jhoan Duran meant to the Minnesota Twins during his rookie campaign. He immediately became one of baseball’s most dominant late-inning relievers. In 67 2/3 innings, he allowed 14 earned runs (1.86 ERA) with 89 strikeouts and 16 walks. He showed the Twins could use him in multiple situations, including closing games, multi-inning appearances, and getting the club out of jams. Duran led all AL pitchers in Win Probability Added while establishing himself as vital to the team’s long-term plans. 

Duran is entering his sophomore season so he won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025 season, and his earliest free agency is 2028. He has yet to make life-changing money, and that can be a good window for a club to approach a player about a long-term deal that buys out some of his free-agent years. For both sides, there isn’t a rush to do this, but these types of deals typically happen before a player reaches the arbitration process. Here are some pros and cons of getting a long-term deal for Duran. 

Pro: Cost Certainty 
Earlier in the offseason, the Mets signed Edwin Diaz to a five-year, $102 million contract, the richest reliever contract in history. He was scheduled to become a free agent, but the Mets ensured he didn’t reach the open market. It seems unlikely that the Twins will spend over $100 million to sign a relief pitcher because this front office has relied on internal options to fill bullpen roles. Other recent contracts might be more similar to what the Twins can offer to Duran. 

Entering last season, the Guardians signed Emmanuel Clase to a five-year, $20 million extension. The deal included a $2 million signing bonus and two option years (2027-28) at $10 million each. Incentives can make those option years worth $13 million, and they buy out his first two free agency years. Duran is a couple of months older than Clase, but Clase had roughly the same amount of service time as Duran when he agreed to his extension.

Pro: Investing in Bullpen
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shied away from multi-year contracts for relievers. Addison Reed is the only reliever signed to a multi-year contract during their tenure. The Twins gave him $16.75 million, and he was limited to 56 innings because of multiple injuries. Reed was only 29 when he signed with the Twins, and he had been one of baseball’s most reliable relievers. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t pitch again at the big-league level following the 2018 season. 

At some point, the Twins will need to invest in the bullpen. No one knows what baseball revenues will look like in five years, and Joe Pohlad has noted that he expects the team’s payroll to rise in the coming years. Minnesota is entering the 2023 season with the highest recorded payroll in team history at $157 million, which ranks 17th in baseball and second in the AL Central. Duran differs from many relievers, and the Twins should make a statement by investing in him.  

Con: Health
One of the main reasons Duran is in the bullpen is because of his health issues throughout his minor-league career. The Twins managed to keep Duran healthy during his rookie season, but there are no guarantees he will stay healthy in the future. Injuries highly impacted Minnesota’s roster last season, so the club might not want to invest significant capital into any pitcher, especially those with injury concerns. 

Reliever usage continues to evolve, and the Twins may continue using Duran in multi-inning appearances. Last season, the Twins were very careful with Duran and used him for more than an inning in 14 of his 57 appearances. It seems likely for that number to increase in the years ahead, but there are no guarantees his body can hold up to that increased workload. He has been a starter in the past, but there are scheduled rest days between appearances that aren’t guaranteed for a bullpen arm. 

Con: Age
The Twins already have Duran under team control through his age-29 season. Even if he is baseball’s best reliever during the next five seasons, do the Twins want to guarantee him money into his early-30s? Clase’s contract has team options ($10 million) with buyouts of $2 million per season. That could help the Twins to approach this contract since they could get out of the deal for a relatively small amount. 

Minnesota has been spoiled with All-Star caliber relievers in the past, like Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Duran can enter the same category, but not all relievers can be this good. Relievers tend to have a high-level performance window that only lasts a few seasons before burning out. The Twins saw this recently with Tyler Duffey, one of baseball’s best relievers for multiple seasons, before being released last season. Few relievers can be among baseball’s best for more than a few seasons. 

Can you see the Twins reaching out with a deal similar to Clase? Is the timing right for an extension or should the Twins wait until next offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[sampleSizeOfOne]

Con. He hasn't signed one.

 

(I suppose some may argue this is a pro... Definitely he is a Pro.)

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I would say no, don't sign him.  He has several years of control remaining.

[Parfigliano]

He was dominant last year.  Last year was also his only year so its a really small sample size to base future results on.  He is under team control.  Those things make it unwise to be making a multi year offer.

[Nine of twelve]

I think it's been established pretty clearly that he is the REAL DEAL. He is already one of the most dominant relievers in MLB, and he could progress to the point of being the most dominant by a large margin. Whatever we can get him to sign for now will be dwarfed by what the market will pay him if he stays with one-year contracts until free agency. Of course there are risks, but in the long term this looks to me like it's a good, cost-effective investment for the Pohlad family fortune.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Relievers tend to have a high-level performance window that only lasts a few seasons before burning out. The Twins saw this recently with Tyler Duffey, one of baseball’s best relievers for multiple seasons, before being released last season.

 

I think someone pointed out that Duffey's drop-off in performance happened at the same time as the crackdown on grip-enhancers. Correlation does not imply causation, but the timing is noteworthy.

[Dman]

If they could get a Clase type deal I would do it.  Yeah arms can fall off at any time but if he works out the savings would be substantial.  Bullpen arms like that just don't come around that often.  He throws 102 easy and all his pitches have good movement so I don't see much regression there.  Only issue would be if his arm was damaged beyond repair for some reason.  If they can get an extra year or two with an extension that could be a real difference maker down the road.

[GKuehl]

I would ABSOLUTELY sign Duran to a long-term extension to buy out his arbitration years and his first 2-3 free agent years. We can say it’s a small sample size, but this isn’t some fluke — he throws 103 MPH with nasty breaking stuff. If anything, Duran should be even better this year than last year. He might be the best reliever in baseball. 

Injuries will always be a risk, but it’s not as if pitchers don’t consistently come back from TJ surgery in today’s MLB. Even if Duran needed TJ at some point, I’m guessing he would still come back as an elite reliever worth $12 million/year in 6 years, especially since team spending will only continue to increase. 

[chpettit19]

If Duran will sign a Clase style extension the Twins should do it tomorrow. Locking him up for an extra 2 or 3 years for less than $15 million per would be such a great advantage when he would normally be hitting free agency and demanding 25 per. Saving 10+ million a year on his contract would be huge for building the rest of the roster.

[MTV]

Let’s see what we can get in 2023. If he struggles and gets injured, probably not. But if he can be consistent and dominant sign him for a while. Also, if you will extend him, keep it under $30 million

[TL]

Both sides should want to get this deal done. For Duran $20mm guaranteed is life-changing and on balance, taking into account potential for injury, he should probably take it and not worry about what he left on the table. For the Twins $20mm over 5 years is immaterial and gives them a chance to buy-out two option years at below market value. 

And as a bonus I'll have peace of mind knowing that if he gets injured tomorrow and never throws again he'll be good financially. 

[Doctor Gast]

I'd normally say wait. But looking at that CLE has done this deal with Clase', I'd lean towards saying yes. CLE is a very economical club and Duran is in the same class as Clase' so it makes sense. If Clase' got this deal, Duran probably expect the same kind of deal. They should sign Duran to keep him happy, as they should have done with Johan Santana early in his career. My feel is that Duran should become our all time greatest RP, surpassing Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers, Jeff Reardon and Rick Aguilera.

They'll do everything possible to keep him healthy, I hope.

[Karbo]

I would wait a couple months and see how he does. The injuries are a concern, but as good as he was last year would be a bet worth taking, if he looks as good thru maybe May?

[TopGunn#22]

I usually lean toward signing the young player because of the message it sends the players that if they perform they will be rewarded.  I liked the deals with Polanco and Kepler and I like the idea of cost certainty moving forward.  Teams like Cleveland and Atlanta have been very smart and calculated with this.  And I think Duran is certainly a piece we want to build around.  There is no question there is risk.  Pitchers are inherently a more risky proposition than hitters and Duran's own history is cautionary.  I think it's unlikely given his dominance as a RP, but there is always the possibility he could still be viewed as a potential starter.  

[weitz41]

It would seem like a wise move for the team and Duran. There is plenty of risk and reward on both sides. If the money being throw around this offseason continues, it would be a bargain for an average relief pitcher in a few years.