Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Second Base

[Nick Nelson]

Jorge Polanco had a well deserved ironman rep up until last season, but a pesky knee issue has given way to a cautious approach this spring for the Twins, who must for the first time think plausibly about life without him.

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Starter: Jorge Polanco
Likely Backup: Donovan Solano
Depth: Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Jose Salas, Austin Martin, Tanner Schobel

THE GOOD
In the 2021 season, his first spent playing second base, Polanco ranked fifth among MLB players at the position with 4.2 fWAR, instantly establishing himself as an elite player at his new infield home. 

He launched 33 homers, drove in 98 runs, and was an easy choice for Twins Daily MVP. Polanco provided middle-of-the-order production from a middle-of-the-infield spot, which is a recipe for huge value. The Twins will hope to get him back there in the season ahead.

Polanco's absence in September last year was jarring: he's one of the few Twins players who has been able to avoid the injured list in his career, ranking second only to Max Kepler in plate appearances for the franchise since 2017. 

If Rocco Baldelli can reliably write Polanco's name into the lineup on a regular basis, he'll feel confident in what they're getting from second base. Polo's been a good if not great hitter almost every year, including 2022 when he was 17% above average, and he's still not yet 30. His switch-hitting ability makes him an everyday staple.

The loss of Luis Arraez during the offseason subtracted a key depth piece at second, but the Twins backfilled with a couple of veterans in Farmer and Solano, who would both be capable if uninspiring regulars at the position should Polanco miss time. 

Adding to their depth here, the Twins have a handful of near-ready infield prospects who could factor at second base in the short term – most notably Julien, who's seen plenty of time there this spring while really impressing with the bat. Martin and Royce Lewis are also realistic candidates to see time at second this year.

THE BAD
Polanco's lengthy run of durability came to halt in the latter part of the 2022 season. He didn't play after August 27th, plagued by a nagging knee tendinitis issue he couldn't shake. According to Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, Polanco spent much of his offseason rehabbing the injury. 

He's been noticeably slow to ramp up in camp. The 29-year-old still hasn't appeared in a spring game, and while that's not quite yet a red flag, it will be a week or two from now. As with so many other players on this Twins team, it is the ambiguity and lack of information around Polanco's health situation that makes it so inscrutable.

What was true at first base is also true here: the Twins have enough credible depth to sustain losing their starter, but such a scenario would also entail a huge drop-off in upside. The idea of Alex Kirilloff and Polanco holding down the right side of the infield is exhilarating. Alas, we've yet to see either of them on the field this spring.

THE BOTTOM LINE
A healthy Polanco is an excellent piece to have at second base. He has played at an All-Star caliber level in two of the past three full MLB seasons and could easily be one of the team's most critical fixtures this year.

But the lower-body injuries have clearly taken their toll on Polanco, who's undergone multiple ankle surgeries in the past. He's in his last guaranteed year under contract, and as mentioned, there are several young middle infielders in this system on the rise, so the coming season could be a pivotal one for the longest-tenured Twin's future with the franchise. 

Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base

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[weitz41]

This is one of the few positions on the team that I struggle with the who's the next big prospect approach. 2021 TD MVP to 2023...injuries, getting older and expensive. 2.8 WAR in 104 games in 2022. 4 WAR player over 150 games. 1 or 2 more players like that and the Twins are playing in Oct. 2023.

[Doctor Gast]

This year with the shift ban will greatly effect 2B. So we need more than someone who can field a ball that's hit at him. We need someone with range. That'll lower your candidate list, especially for the long haul. Farmer might be asked to play more often at 3B while subbing SS. Solano might be asked to play 1B more often. Both are viable 2B. I haven't been pleased with Gordon in the INF. I'm not sure Julien can handle the position. If Polanco is held back to start the season, we'd be hard pressed. To the point of putting Castro on the active roster who has had a pretty good ST.

I see Lewis as the heir to 2B after Polanco. So to keep  his feel for the INF and be in constant mentorship from Correa to step in there when needed. Martin was very impressive there but I'd like to give him more time in the OF. Lee will be a great 3B and SS fill in behind Lewis.

[Karbo]

I'm pulling for Polo. He has been one of the best and most consistent player for the team for a few years now. Losing him for any length of time could very well lead to a horrible outcome. Think last Sept.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I tend to forget how valuable Polo has been/hopefully will be to the Twins. I hope he has a healthy, outstanding season at 2B this year. It is possible.

[Aerodeliria]

Polanco is a bit of an enigma. When healthy, his calm demeanor at the plate means that he has been as good as almost anyone at crunch time. In the field is where the flaws appear and oddly at crunch time. I hope his defense has improved, but I have serious doubts about it. Who can fill his slot if he can't play? It could be a merry-go-round again... but let's hope not.

[mikelink45]

I have seen Polanco as a trade candidate for the last year.  We missed the opportunity to sell high.  2B does get more important without the shift and if we have ground ball pitchers.  Otherwise 2B seems to be where we push players without position or fielding greatness.

 

[MMMordabito]

I'm expecting to see Polanco sit and DH against lefties often at the start of the season.  I know Buxton will get some of those DH slots, but, if he can go in center, you really only have to field one of Kepler, Gallo, Gordon or Kirilloff/Larnach against said lefties.

I also hope the Twins are just being cautious, and Polanco has a healthy season as a key cog on the team.  Hopefully, he can make that option look very attractive to Falvine when the season is over.  

All-Stars C4, Chulo and Buck leading this team from the middle of the field and top of the order sounds good to me.

[saviking]

Polanco puts tremendous stress on his ankle when he takes violent  swings. I'm not sure if his ankle gives out because it's already hurt or the violent swings are what injures his ankle. Either way, if he keeps it up his career will be greatly shortened. 

Because of this I would prefer to trade him at the end of this season ..

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I hope he has a good year and we have a tough decision to make on his team option at season end.

If not, then I think the Twins get what they can for him at the deadline and promote Lewis, Lee or Julien to 2B.

[farmerguychris]

7 minutes ago, saviking said:

Polanco puts tremendous stress on his ankle when he takes violent  swings. I'm not sure if his ankle gives out because it's already hurt or the violent swings are what injures his ankle. Either way, if he keeps it up his career will be greatly shortened. 

Because of this I would prefer to trade him at the end of this season ..

In order to trade him at the end of this season - I believe that means we would have to first pick up his option.  If we wanted to ensure ourselves something for him, we would have to trade him by the deadline this year, or be open to keeping him on the team next year if we did pick up that option.

[TwinsDr2021]

Per ESPN Polanco's WAR in 19 was 5.7 4.8 in 21 and  2.8 in 104 games last year, if healthy he would have put up three straight full years of WAR over 4.

Over those three years only Correa has had a higher WAR (5.4 in 22).

He is vested for next year (10.5) and has a 12 million club option for 25, I say lets see how this year plays out before doing anything drastic with him. He is very good and very cheap right now.

[roger]

Thanks, Nick.

Found it interesting that you mention Lewis at second as an afterthought and don't mention Lee at all.  Assuming they both become the players we expect and Correa remains healthy, one is going to have to be at second a year or two down the road.  Considering what we have seen from Lee the past week, I can't wait to see that infield of Lee, Correa and Lewis!  So I guess that means that eventually, Polo must go.  That will be a shame as he is a real class act.

[TopGunn#22]

The Twins are a much better team if Polanco is playing and producing.  And I don't think you can undervalue how reasonable his contract is with what you would expect to get out of him.  The Twins have several candidates who could/should eventually emerge to replace Polanco---Lewis, Lee, possibly Martin and possibly whoever we select with the #5 overall pick this year.  But this is an important bridge year.  Until the eventual successor can prove themselves it's tough to determine who is more important for this season:  Kirilloff or Polanco?  Both playing at the level they are capable of would be HUGE.  One or both NOT being able to will be a tough thing to piece together to come close.  

[saviking]

16 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

In order to trade him at the end of this season - I believe that means we would have to first pick up his option.  If we wanted to ensure ourselves something for him, we would have to trade him by the deadline this year, or be open to keeping him on the team next year if we did pick up that option.

Thanks for that explanation Chris. Guess the only real option to trading Polanco is not appealing as it would mean we were out of the race and we trade him at the trade deadline. 

[nicksaviking]

You're leaving out one of my favorite under the radar prospects! Anthony Prato knows how to draw a walk, steal a base and rack up every kind of XBH.

[jmlease1]

Quote

What was true at first base is also true here: the Twins have enough credible depth to sustain losing their starter, but such a scenario would also entail a huge drop-off in upside. The idea of Alex Kirilloff and Polanco holding down the right side of the infield is exhilarating. Alas, we've yet to see either of them on the field this spring.

Disagree, Nick: I don't think the 2B situation is very comparable to 1B. We have so many guys who can play 2B now and prospects who are close/ pushing as well that there's a reason we have people already getting ahead of our skis and talking about trading Polanco. (I do not favor dealing Polanco this season unless things completely implode by the trade deadline AND at least one of our prospects is begging for time) 1B we're sliding in guys because we think they can hit enough. 2B has real depth and strength.

Polanco is the best 2B on our roster right now, but Farmer, Solano, Miranda, Gordon, Julien, Martin, Lewis, and Lee can all play there (admittedly, Martin & Lewis are not likely to be available any time soon). The MLB depth is strong, the system depth is strong and clear, and even if the Twins decide to move on from Polanco they're going to be in good shape at 2B.

Jorge Polanco is still one of the best players on the Twins, so losing him for an extended period of time would hurt a lot. But that's what happens any time you lose one of your best players even when you have good depth. but this isn't a position where we'd be stretching someone to play there, quickly reaching down to AA to find a body, or asking someone to really learn the position on the fly.

Hopefully the knee will not be a problem this season, but the Twins have a lot of strength at 2B built up and organizationally it's a strength.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I have seen Polanco as a trade candidate for the last year.  We missed the opportunity to sell high.

Totally agree. Most everyone said that last Septembers injury was an aberration. I hope everyone is right. I see a guy who played while somewhat injured for years (kudos to him for playing every day but it may have taken its toll), who looked like an old man while walking last September, and who hasn't been seen in spring training this year. The Twins will be much better with a healthy Polanco this year, but will he be healthy??

[joefish]

Whoever takes Jorge's place when he gets injured must be a  better option than seeing Jorge limp and swing in obvious agony. 

I like Jorge too. I hate seeing play with obvious pain. 

[rwilfong86]

If he is anything close to healthy he is my pick to be the leadoff guy this season.

[Fatbat]

So last year, a short ST was the reason for everyone being on the IL.  Sooooo now this year we are worried because the vets aren’t playing meaningless games….. head scratching.