Twins 2023 Position Analysis: First Base

[stringer bell]

I’ve been a Kirilloff fan for a while. Last year, when the team broke camp I said a healthy Kirilloff’s ceiling was Will Clark offense and Mark Grace defense and his floor was Will Clark defense and Mark Grace offense. I still believe that, but after  three wrist surgeries, including the far more invasive procedure, the chances of him being 100% are far from a guarantee. 
 

The Twins really don’t have a viable long-term alternative if AK can’t come back at something approaching full strength. The team’s off-season where they didn’t pursue a first baseman seems to indicate that they believe Kirilloff will be able to come back and be productive. 

[DocBauer]

I am filled with hope and optimism when I hear "sore" and not "pain". Soreness I would expect. I mean, major or not, it was still surgery and his wrist is going to adapt over time.

I don't know that any of us don't believe he could be a special bat for the next several years. If he's not ready opening day, I won't be freaked out or upset. It will only mean he needs more time to ramp up after being brought along slowly for precautionary reasons. And I'm OK with that. His full and long term recovery is far more important than being ready opening day. If he does begin at AAA, there would then appear to be room for Larnach or Julien. 

Long term, I'm not so concerned about depth of prospects as long as AK gets right. Julien will end up there and 2B, and Miranda will be able to swing between 3B/1B. All is good and deep and well....as long as Kirilloff gets 100%, even if the beginning of his season is a little delayed.

 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

invaluable to the Saints? If they think he can hit major league pitching does it matter if he is at 1B, DH or the OF? Currently ESPN has him listed as the 4th right fielder, they have Miranda as the 1st 3B and 2nd 1B behind AK and Farmer as the 3rd 1B. If AK can't start Miranda can't play both 1B and 3B, which means Farmer or Gordon is at 1B, since Gallo is listed as the 1st LF.

He seems pretty buried on the OF depth chart which means quite a few bad things need to happen for him to start in the majors in the OF and if he spends the year in AAA  he could get passed by Lewis, Lee, Martin or even ERod and in the mean time while in playing AAA as a 25 year old he could get passed by Julien at DH and 1B.

It is in his best interest and the Twins to get a first basemen glove along with his outfielders glove.

 

OK, Wallner is 4th in RF. Where's he on the 1B depth? Kiriloff, Gallo, Miranda, Solando, White, Gordon, Julien, Sabato or anyone else on the active roster they may deem worthy to transition there before Wallner.

Wallner's bat isn't MLB ready, he SOs too much, He was expected to get a cup of coffee last year  but not as much as he did. That won't happen this season. I doubt he'll have much of any time in MLB. Wallner needs to work his butt off to polish up his raw stuff; to get a better feel of RF, his glove and SO less to lock up any chance of playing RF next season as to take advantage of his speed & arm (that's what AAA is for). With Gallo, Taylor and Kepler probably all gone.

So you want them leap frog Wallner over those who has more experience and proven bat at 1B this  season and jeopardize his chances to start at RF next season, for what?

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I hope AK thrives, but if he does not then I like keeping Miranda at 3B until Lewis or Lee is ready.  I would prefer Solano to fill in there if AK cannot to start the season with Gallo playing there intermittently against RH pitching in a platoon with Solano.

Once Lewis or Lee is ready, and if Polanco/Julien are locked in at 2B, only then would I entertain moving Miranda to 1B.  I just would prefer that he not be moved back and forth as he needs to find a permanent position.

 

[mrtwinsfan]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Could you cite a source? I've not heard this and didn't see it happen during a week down there. Swinging in the cages is not the same as live BP.

Everyone knows the source name     Whishy  Wasdo !!!

[jkcarew]

"Solano has been a consistently solid hitter...(and) a line drive machine..."

Honestly, I feel like I'm in the twilight zone reading writers on this site regarding Solano. My word, he was signed for $2M after camp started. He's a 92 OPS+ career hitter. He's 35. Last year, which was one of his recent 'outstanding' seasons, he was at 97. I have a hard time believing his signing has much of anything to do with first base or DH...other than break-glass in-game scenarios. I think if Kirilloff is out, he's still not anything too close to part of a 1B/DH "plan".

[Fred]

If you're doubting that Kiriloff can come back after that "bone shortening" surgery, check out Kirk Gibson's history. I can't remember the exact number, but he smacked a lot of baseballs out of the park after the same surgery. I choose to be optimistic. Man, I am glad baseball is back. Oh, and I love the pitch clock.

[DocBauer]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

invaluable to the Saints? If they think he can hit major league pitching does it matter if he is at 1B, DH or the OF? Currently ESPN has him listed as the 4th right fielder, they have Miranda as the 1st 3B and 2nd 1B behind AK and Farmer as the 3rd 1B. If AK can't start Miranda can't play both 1B and 3B, which means Farmer or Gordon is at 1B, since Gallo is listed as the 1st LF.

He seems pretty buried on the OF depth chart which means quite a few bad things need to happen for him to start in the majors in the OF and if he spends the year in AAA  he could get passed by Lewis, Lee, Martin or even ERod and in the mean time while in playing AAA as a 25 year old he could get passed by Julien at DH and 1B.

It is in his best interest and the Twins to get a first basemen glove along with his outfielders glove.

 

OK, I understand your basic belief that a top prospect should be a viable ML player by age 24. I don't entirely agree due to mitigating factors such as injury that could wipe out an entire season. And while we are all sick and tired of hearing about and dealing with covid, the simple truth is the entire 2020 milb season was lost. Period. A few top prospects were allowed to practice and semi play for taxi squads that year. So while you, or me, or anyone wants to admit it or not,  almost ANY PROSPECT is a year younger in development time than their age. How can you possibly deny someone NOT PLAYING for an ENTIRE YEAR and then say they are behind development and not a legitimate prospect because they aren't ready by age 24?

I LIKE Wallner. He's athletic and surprisingly fast. He's got tremendous power. Batting wise, I'm still concerned about K's. But he's improved at EVERY level the last 2yrs, in reagrd to AVG and OB. He keeps getting better. He's got the athletic range to play the OF and a CANNON for an arm. But his defense, even in SSS says he needs polish. Nothing wrong with that. It's up to HIM to prove his athleticism and arm can play at the ML level after 3 seasons of milb ball and a cup of coffee at the ML level. 

Being stuck, for the moment, behind Gallo, Kepler, and Larnach is not a bad thing. It just means veterans in place and waiting for opportunity. And time to further refine his game. And I don't have a problem with him trying on a 1B MIT to see if he could play the position. But opportunity will come. 

I would place Larnach in RF and Wallner in LF, with better speed, as early as 2024, even with the option of Martin providing competition. But AAA time to hone his talent is not a bad thing at all.

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I hope AK thrives, but if he does not then I like keeping Miranda at 3B until Lewis or Lee is ready.  I would prefer Solano to fill in there if AK cannot to start the season with Gallo playing there intermittently against RH pitching in a platoon with Solano.

Once Lewis or Lee is ready, and if Polanco/Julien are locked in at 2B, only then would I entertain moving Miranda to 1B.  I just would prefer that he not be moved back and forth as he needs to find a permanent position.

 

I also like the idea of leaving Miranda mostly out of this mix and letting him focus on 3rd as he has a chance to stick there. Just settle in and mash, young man.  A new position, even 1st base, makes last year all that more impressive. 

[Squirrel]

19 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Could you cite a source? I've not heard this and didn't see it happen during a week down there. Swinging in the cages is not the same as live BP.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-alex-kirilloff-making-progress-with-wrist/
 

Maybe this started after you left? Then again, this report didn’t give much detail so …

[Riverbrian]

Revolving doors were invented as a way to relieve the stack pressure that occurs in high rise buildings. 

They serve the same purpose in baseball... they can relieve pressure elsewhere in the building. 

 

[weitz41]

I really hope AK is able to return to form, but if not turning to Julien (long term) as plan B makes the most sense to me. IDK about this season though. Seems like everyone except Buxton and Correa has a shot if AK doesn't fully recover. Yahoo fantasy baseball lists Vasquez as a C,1B..like I said everyone seems to have a shot.

I prefer he is our 1B over one of these 6 guy is our 1B until they switch pitcher then it may be one of the others depending on the match up, how many out, what inning it is..Bah! give me Kent Hrbek.

Here's hoping AK returns to form.