An Unfair Comparison for Jose Miranda

[Ted Wiedmann]

Jose Miranda had an encouraging rookie season at the plate for the Twins in 2022, but how does he compare to one of baseball's best?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

As I looked at numbers for Jose Miranda's stellar rookie campaign, something about it seemed quixotically familiar. This gap-to-gap line-drive hitter with a below-average walk rate and a below-average league strikeout rate reminded me of a season another young third baseman had several years ago, 2013 Manny Machado.

This may initially seem bewildering, but give me a chance to explain, because while similarities exist, it’s the (somewhat hidden) differences that highlight the contrast between the two players. But they also point out why Twins fans can be so optimistic about Miranda.

Miranda was never the prospect that Machado was, but they did end up having similar hit and power grades. On Fangraphs in 2012, Machado was given a 60-hit 50-power, and Miranda had a 50-hit 50-power. The difference in the overall ranking had much to do with other tools Machado possesses that Miranda does not. We will get to that later.

For now, I want to focus on the similarities between 2022 Jose Miranda and 2013 Manny Machado. While not identical, Machado and Miranda were aggressive, quality bat-to-ball hitters in their first full seasons. Machado posted a 4.1% BB rate and 15.9% K rate, and Miranda had a 5.8% BB rate and an 18.8% K rate. Their BB/K was 0.26 for Machado and 0.31 for Miranda, so while the rates were slightly different, the ratios were very close. 

The approach of Machado and Miranda wasn't the only similarity. Their line drive rates and power numbers are what stuck out to me. Let's take a look at some categories where Miranda and Machado performed similarly:

2022 Miranda vs. 2013 Machado 
HR: 15 vs 14
OBP: .325 vs .314
SLG: .426 vs .432
OPS: .751 vs .746
ISO: .158 vs .148
wOBA: .329 vs .325
LD%: 20.3% vs 20.6%
Fastball RAA: 2.5 vs 2.3

Machado logged over 700 plate appearances in 2013, while Jose Miranda had fewer than 500, so volume totals will look significantly different. Still, this was a fun thing to research, given what Machado has developed into as a hitter. 

The differences in the seasons are relatively obvious, but we should look at them anyway. First, Machado played his 2013 season at age 20, whereas Miranda played in 2022 at age 24. That doesn’t mean anything in the value of that year, but it means a tremendous difference in what that year means to their future projections. So to be clear, the fact that their years were similar offensively, doesn’t mean that the players should develop in a similar manner. Jose Miranda is not on pace to become Manny Machado.

There is another glaring disparity between these seasons that does affect the value of that particular season: their defense. Miranda's defensive struggles at first base have been well documented, and it seems to be deemed a success if he turns into an average third baseman. 

On the contrary, Machado is one of the best defensive third basemen in the history of baseball. In that 2013 season, Machado netted 27 defensive runs saved, tops among all third baseman and fifth among all positions. His 20.8 UZR ranked first among all third basemen and first among all positions. 

Machado also finished first among all non-catchers in defensive runs above average at 23.2, a defensive stat that takes into account position value, which is a particularly impressive accomplishment given third base is not considered a premium defensive position. For some context, Miranda had -9.3 defensive runs above average last season. He was penalized for being a below-average defender and additionally penalized for playing most of his innings at first base. 

The differences in defensive value, along with the volume disparity, were enough to give Machado a 5.0 fWAR season compared to Miranda's 1.1 fWAR. Still, it should also be noted that Miranda's offensive production came in a much unfriendlier run-scoring environment. Not only was Camden Yards one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, but changes to the baseball and the progression of pitchers also played a part. 

The difference in these factors is shown in wRC+ and OPS+, which consider the hitter's environment. For both of these stats, the league average is 100. Miranda's and Machado's OPS were nearly identical, but Miranda performed much better in wRC+ at 117 than 2013 Machado at 102. OPS+, which compares a player's OPS to the league average, shows the same with Miranda at 116 and 2013 Machado at 102. 

Jose Miranda most likely doesn't have the talent to become the player Manny Machado has developed into. Still, there are enough parallels in their early career hitting performances that there might be more upside in Miranda's bat than initially perceived. I don't want to imply that Miranda will match Machado as one of the premier players in the game; even in Miranda's highest standard deviation of outcomes, he doesn't become the player Machado is. But as someone who began writing this piece a little lower on Miranda than public perception, I am more optimistic about the Twins' starting third baseman for the years to come.

View full article

[tony&rodney]

First, Miranda needs a better uniform number to get noticed beyond the Twin Cities.

I like your optimism and how you used some numbers within the post, but these two are so different and you actually point out the glaring differences quite clearly. So I'm not exactly sure why you compared Machado to Miranda. I am sure Miranda will never play shortstop for the Dodgers.

[strumdatjag]

That article is so positive (even as qualified), it’s probably destined to be the kiss of death to Miranda’s career.   Should have exercised your Miranda right to remain silent.  

[Dave The Dastardly]

I'll wager a Grain Belt that Miranda will lead the 2023 team in RBIs. Assuming of course Rocco doesn't have him bat behind three guys who can't get on base...

[mikelink45]

I like Miranda a lot -but Machado - the pressure is on.

ST is so full of optimism - I think we will be 162 - 0 this year!

[Ted Wiedmann]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

First, Miranda needs a better uniform number to get noticed beyond the Twin Cities.

I like your optimism and how you used some numbers within the post, but these two are so different and you actually point out the glaring differences quite clearly. So I'm not exactly sure why you compared Machado to Miranda. I am sure Miranda will never play shortstop for the Dodgers.

100% agree on the number change.

I think the point of this was to find a similarly performing player early in their career that made the necessary adjustments to become a premier league bat, maybe adjustments that Miranda can make as well. While overall value will never be the same, offensively there is tons of room for Miranda to grow still and maybe elite offensive production is in play for him. 

[jkcarew]

His rookie year was similar to Machado's, but you can't project age 24 anywhere near how you can project 20.  And Machado is great at defense, and Miranda is the opposite of great, so you can't compare them that way.

So, as you acknowledged, unfair.

IMO, narrative/story here is much more about his future with the club. Regardless of the rookie year, he has to take another significant step offensively to have unique value as a first-baseman. Still, his floor seems good enough to be a contributor on a true contender, but maybe not a big needle-mover.  He might not have a ton of time to get nearer the ceiling based on the quality and quantity coming up behind him (though, I suppose Kirilloff's health could change that outlook).

[ashbury]

There's unfair, and then there's probably pointless.

[TwinsDr2021]

16 minutes ago, ashbury said:

There's unfair, and then there's probably pointless.

100% agree, but there is tons of those types of comparisons on this site, Arraez to Carew, and every prospect to a future hall of fame player. So why not Miranda to a future Hall of Famer that debuted at SS at 19 years old.

[Ted Wiedmann]

19 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

100% agree, but there is tons of those types of comparisons on this site, Arraez to Carew, and every prospect to a future hall of fame player. So why not Miranda to a future Hall of Famer that debuted at SS at 19 years old.

Pointing out similarities in an elite hitter and a player that needs to be an elite hitter may be pointless, sure. 

As a genuine question, would you rather read about how Miranda is the same player as Ty France? 

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

Pointing out similarities in an elite hitter and a player that needs to be an elite hitter may be pointless, sure. 

As a genuine question, would you rather read about how Miranda is the same player as Ty France? 

It is closer to realistic isn't it? Compare how it took a couple of years for France to be a 3+ WAR player and what Miranda could do to that or better quicker,

Couldn't we compare Verlander's 2006 season to Ryan last year? Same type of comparison.

 

[Schmoeman5]

52 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It is closer to realistic isn't it? Compare how it took a couple of years for France to be a 3+ WAR player and what Miranda could do to that or better quicker,

Couldn't we compare Verlander's 2006 season to Ryan last year? Same type of comparison.

 

Except Verlander was throwing 100mph+. Let's hope the Machado-Miranda comparison is only in regards to the positive aspects, and not the parts where Machado doesn't hustle and takes plays or ABs off

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

Pointing out similarities in an elite hitter and a player that needs to be an elite hitter may be pointless, sure. 

As a genuine question, would you rather read about how Miranda is the same player as Ty France? 

As one who may have started this tangent through a bit of snark, I feel bad about that.  It was marginal and if I'd known you'd take it badly I probably would have held off.*

I count myself as on the analytic side of the aisle at TD, but I do like knowing if an experienced scout looks at a player and says, "he reminds me of a young ____  _____."  Qualitative observations can be used analytically quite well, IMO.  So comps are good with me.

I don't know Ty France that well, but with a quick look at a source or two, he does seem like a pretty solid comp for our Miranda - height, weight, handedness, and the basic skillsets according to scouts. Nice find.  I'll note that the two players are almost exactly 4 years apart in age, but France being born in July puts him in a different arbitrary cutoff for age during a season on b-r.com, and I think when doing a comp it's reasonable to keep that in mind.  In that view, Miranda has come up to the majors almost exactly a full year younger than France did, and on average there is some forecasting value to that, though not a game-changer. 

Your article's headline might not have needed alteration if you had used France as the comp instead of Manny, but perhaps you'd have felt the message was less compelling.  For me?  I'd have liked it better.  France is a valuable player and it's good to know our guy could track like that.  Your article as it is contains more caveats than I like in a comp between players.  Doesn't mean it was a bad, bad article, so again, I'm a little sheepish over my snark.

 

* Which is perilously close to the non-apology apology, "I'm sorry you feel that way."  Sorry for that too, but it does summarize that my reason for regret is impure.  "Mistakes were made."

[Karbo]

Year 2 will tell us a lot. See how how he fairs defensively at 3rd given more opportunities.

[Nine of twelve]

In today's game Miranda hit a home run in the second inning. It was his 3rd dinger in 3 consecutive at bats. Maybe the author is onto something here.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

In today's game Miranda hit a home run in the second inning. It was his 3rd dinger in 3 consecutive at bats. Maybe the author is onto something here.

Wouldn't that be something!  He won't be Machado defensively, but he looked average to me at 3B.  I thought he was better at 3B than he was at 1B and you have to believe he will move better as a result of physical conditioning.    I hope he is an absolute beast this year.