Your best-case lineup?

[ToddlerHarmon]

It's getting time to speculate on the Opening Day lineup, so let's try with a twist: given this 40-man roster, what is the lineup you dream on - peak performances, no injuries, no managerial biases or brain farts?

Mine:

Polanco 2B

Correa SS

Kirilloff 1B

Buxton CF

Gallo LF

Miranda 3B

Larnach DH

Vazquez C

Kepler RF

 

Thoughts? Is there a better DH option than Larnach? Solano? Julien? Would the defense/offense tradeoff be better with Farmer at 3B and Miranda at DH? Is there a better leadoff option than Polanco? Do you stack Buxton and Correa back to back? Do you move Gallo up to third and ride the OBP? Is peak Kepler better than this?

[gunnarthor]

I think the lineup is going to be good, we have solid depth and some intriguing young players. But a best case scenario, for me,  would be:

C - Vazquez (I don't like him but we paid for him)
1B - Healthy Kiriloff. He's had a few runs where his wrist was fine and showed he could be a capable middle of the order bat. 
2B - Julien. They trade Polanco for pitching because Julien is ready to step up and isn't a disaster.
SS - Correa.
3B - Lee. Forces the issue with a great ST and sits there for 15 years.
LF - Larnich. He's 26. He was drafted to be a starting, middle of the order bat. Best case is he turns into that.
CF - Buxton
RF - Wallner. Trade Kepler for pitching because Waller is 25 and was drafted to be a staring, middle of the order bat. 
DH - Gallo. Best case is he hits 40+ HR and a 120 OPS+.

You'd have a pretty nice bench of Jeffers, Gordon, Miranda, Farmer, Taylor all capable of starting multiple positions. 

Buxton (and Taylor) will have to cover a LOT of ground in the OF and even then, it may not be enough. And Julien might make us pine for the days of Todd Walker but, if "best-case" means everything breaks right, ...

[chpettit19]

This is a bit of a challenge because I don't know how you want to define "peak performance" for the rookies/youngsters on the 40-man. Likely peak vs 100th percentile peak would be very different. But I'm going to go with "likely peak," and give my lineup based on that.

Buxton- CF
Polanco- 2B
Correa- SS
Kirilloff- 1B
Miranda- 3B
Larnach- DH
Gallo- LF
Vazquez- C
Kepler- RF

When Lewis comes back:

Buxton- CF
Polanco- 2B
Correa- SS
Kirilloff- 1B
Lewis- RF
Larnach- DH
Miranda- 3B
Gallo- LF
Vazquez- C

[ToddlerHarmon]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I think the lineup is going to be good, we have solid depth and some intriguing young players. But a best case scenario, for me,  would be:

C - Vazquez (I don't like him but we paid for him)
1B - Healthy Kiriloff. He's had a few runs where his wrist was fine and showed he could be a capable middle of the order bat. 
2B - Julien. They trade Polanco for pitching because Julien is ready to step up and isn't a disaster.
SS - Correa.
3B - Lee. Forces the issue with a great ST and sits there for 15 years.
LF - Larnich. He's 26. He was drafted to be a starting, middle of the order bat. Best case is he turns into that.
CF - Buxton
RF - Wallner. Trade Kepler for pitching because Waller is 25 and was drafted to be a staring, middle of the order bat. 
DH - Gallo. Best case is he hits 40+ HR and a 120 OPS+.

You'd have a pretty nice bench of Jeffers, Gordon, Miranda, Farmer, Taylor all capable of starting multiple positions. 

Buxton (and Taylor) will have to cover a LOT of ground in the OF and even then, it may not be enough. And Julien might make us pine for the days of Todd Walker but, if "best-case" means everything breaks right, ...

I'm not sold on trading away Polanco and hoping on Julien, but it is yours to dream.

My guess is best Miranda > best Larnach > best 2023 Lee, but not outlandish to flip this over.

[ToddlerHarmon]

52 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This is a bit of a challenge because I don't know how you want to define "peak performance" for the rookies/youngsters on the 40-man. Likely peak vs 100th percentile peak would be very different. But I'm going to go with "likely peak," and give my lineup based on that.

Buxton- CF
Polanco- 2B
Correa- SS
Kirilloff- 1B
Miranda- 3B
Larnach- DH
Gallo- LF
Vazquez- C
Kepler- RF

When Lewis comes back:

Buxton- CF
Polanco- 2B
Correa- SS
Kirilloff- 1B
Lewis- RF
Larnach- DH
Miranda- 3B
Gallo- LF
Vazquez- C

"Likely peak" is more the spirit of the question, or I would have 2019 Kepler batting fifth :)

I was going to say Lewis would push Larnach out of the lineup, but good-case probably has Larnach better than Kepler. The FO might be hoping Kepler is more tradeable by mid-summer with this lineup in mind.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

"Likely peak" is more the spirit of the question, or I would have 2019 Kepler batting fifth :)

I was going to say Lewis would push Larnach out of the lineup, but good-case probably has Larnach better than Kepler. The FO might be hoping Kepler is more tradeable by mid-summer with this lineup in mind.

In an injury free environment I'd bet on Larnach being better than Kepler at this point of their careers, but Kepler has looked good early in spring. The decisions they'll make in season will be very interesting to watch. Health will obviously play a big role in that. But my hope is they have some real tough decisions at the deadline on being able to sell a veteran or 2 because kids are taking their jobs.

I'm ready for the season to start! Although, I'm really pumped for the WBC. That'll be a nice appetizer for the season.

[tony&rodney]

Given the 40 man roster ... cuts out trades and guys like Lee. that's a fair request. It's early but I'll guess:

Julien DH, Buxton CF, Polanco 2B, Correa SS, Kirilloff 1B,  Miranda 3B,  Gallo LF,  Vasquez C,  Kepler RF,  P. Lopez P.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I think the lineup is going to be good, we have solid depth and some intriguing young players. But a best case scenario, for me,  would be:

C - Vazquez (I don't like him but we paid for him)
1B - Healthy Kiriloff. He's had a few runs where his wrist was fine and showed he could be a capable middle of the order bat. 
2B - Julien. They trade Polanco for pitching because Julien is ready to step up and isn't a disaster.
SS - Correa.
3B - Lee. Forces the issue with a great ST and sits there for 15 years.
LF - Larnich. He's 26. He was drafted to be a starting, middle of the order bat. Best case is he turns into that.
CF - Buxton
RF - Wallner. Trade Kepler for pitching because Waller is 25 and was drafted to be a staring, middle of the order bat. 
DH - Gallo. Best case is he hits 40+ HR and a 120 OPS+.

You'd have a pretty nice bench of Jeffers, Gordon, Miranda, Farmer, Taylor all capable of starting multiple positions. 

Buxton (and Taylor) will have to cover a LOT of ground in the OF and even then, it may not be enough. And Julien might make us pine for the days of Todd Walker but, if "best-case" means everything breaks right, ...

What colour is the sky in your world?

[ToddlerHarmon]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Given the 40 man roster ... cuts out trades and guys like Lee. that's a fair request. It's early but I'll guess:

Julien DH, Buxton CF, Polanco 2B, Correa SS, Kirilloff 1B,  Miranda 3B,  Gallo LF,  Vasquez C,  Kepler RF,  P. Lopez P.

Julien leading off would be nice, if the minor league numbers translate. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I like the original lineup with Polanco leading off more than having Buxton lead off. Buxton has speed but I doubt if we are going to ask him to steal much given the injury risk. Buxton strikes out too much for a lead off guy and doesn't have a real  high OBP (last 3 years - .267, .358 and .306) and is projected for a .313 OBP this year. On the other hand, he provides power as a #4 and coverage for a #3 hitter, particularly if he hits behind a young guy like Larnach, Miranda or Kirilloff. Lead off Polanco and hit Buxton3 or 4. 

[nicksaviking]

Buxton - CF

Polanco - 2B

Correa - SS

Miranda - DH

Julien - 1B

Lewis - LF

Larnach - RF

Lee - 3B

Vazquez - C

That's if Polanco is back to his +.800 OPS days. If not, Julien plays 2B and Kirilloff gets back in the lineup at 1B or DH.

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

Polanco is not sitting on the bench so that a rookie can play right out of the gate.  It would be fantastic if Julien was so good he forced them to trade Polanco but no way that happens on opening day.  

No way in hell Lee takes Miranda's spot at 3B.  He has a total of 8 ABs at AA.  

I would prefer Larnach to Kepler but it's the same story.  There is no room for Larnach with the addition of Gallo and Taylor.  The four OFers are Buxton / Kepler / Gallo and Taylor.  Farmer / Gordon and Solano are the utility players.  Therefore, Larnach starts the season in STP.

[DocBauer]

The premise is my BEST CASE LINEUP. 

NOTES: 

1] This is, as the OP states, PEAK performance meaning, as explained, players healthy and performing to normal/expected standards.

2] I'm fudging just a tiny bit as my expectations for some time included Kepler being moved, which obviously hasn't happened at this point.

3] It's OK to fantasize a little bit, right?

OPTIMAL LINEUP:

1] Julien--DH

2] Correa--SS

3] Polanco--2B

4] Buxton--CF

5] Kirilloff--1B

6] Miranda--3B

7] Gallo--RF

8] Larnach--LF

9] Vazquez--C

THE REASONING WHY:

First of all, OPTIMAL might not be day one. Also, even with Kepler on board, there's room to to adjust at 1B, 2B, DH, and OF corners, with virtually the same lineup. And yes, maybe I'm cheating a little bit with Julien proving he's ready, or will be very soon, and optimal, again, doesn't necessarily mean DAY ONE.

Julien pulls a "Knoblauch" and jumps from AA to be a table setter with a lot to offer, even though his 2024 version will undoubtedly be better. Buxton is just NOT the leadoff hitter envisioned when drafted. He's a dangerous power plant and RBI and RUN producer who's speed will still be exciting, bringing in doubles and triples and plenty of runs from 2B and even 1B, but he's only going to SB here and there. Kirilloff and Miranda are a perfect LH/RH duo to follow Byron. Hit, contact, power, and decent OB ability to drive in runs and keep the table set. Gallo is his "TEXAS" self again and hits .200-.220 with a .350 OB% and 32-38 HR power. So why do I have him hitting 7th? Because the "powerful" Buxton will have a bit of SO production as well. And I don't want them back to back. Gallo still has 3 very good hitters in front of him and opportunities to drive them in. But despite his .800+ career OPS, there remains a ton of swing and miss. This is the perfect spot for him to produce, lengthen the lineup, and scare the hell out of pitchers. Larnach can and should produce and climb this lineup ladder by 2024. But for now, he's less experienced than Gallo, not quite as powerful, and might be one of the most dangerous #8 hitters in all of MLB, if not THE most. And then comes the very solid bat of Vazquez...and Jeffers many days...making the 9 hole effective.

I am not going to play in the sandbox and paper napkin arena of a lineup vs LHP right now simply due to the fact that the Twins will face LH ST approximately 25% of the time, and there are so many different permutations of said lineup that it's almost impossible to select a single OPTIMAL lineup. Farmer, or even Solano, might hit #1 at DH, or more likely in the field. And both could play in various configurations. Taylor could easily figure in to an OF spot. Jeffers might catch or DH. Gallo has good splits and AK and Larnach also have the same based on some history. 

So again, with the few comments offered, leaving the 25% of games against a LHSP alone, that is my very best lineup against RHSP.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The beauty of this lineup is that no one in it is completely irreplaceable.  If anyone is out, there is an actual (mostly) qualified major league player able to come in and take their place.  In addition, there are going to be capable pieces down in St. Paul able to play before we ever get to some of the guys that we threw to the sharks last year at the end of the season.  All of this is to say while I don't love injuries, the floor for this group of position players is pretty good. 

So. . .

Polanco - consistency is key

Buxton - get the man some AB's

Correa - as Correa goes, so will this lineup

Miranda - I think there could be big things in store here

(Good) Kiriloff - if healthy.  Otherwise Solano? maybe bats seventh

Gallo - we're going to smile about this signing by the end of the season

DH for the day - This will be a committee, so the lineup position will change all the time.

Vasquez - it's a good catcher spot, even when Jeffers plays.

(Bad) Kepler - If we get good Kepler, he can bat 5th.

Nobody is traded.  Nobody not on the 40 man roster.  Not the 1927 Yankees, but no black holes either.

 

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The premise is my BEST CASE LINEUP. 

NOTES: 

1] This is, as the OP states, PEAK performance meaning, as explained, players healthy and performing to normal/expected standards.

2] I'm fudging just a tiny bit as my expectations for some time included Kepler being moved, which obviously hasn't happened at this point.

3] It's OK to fantasize a little bit, right?

OPTIMAL LINEUP:

1] Julien--DH

2] Correa--SS

3] Polanco--2B

4] Buxton--CF

5] Kirilloff--1B

6] Miranda--3B

7] Gallo--RF

8] Larnach--LF

9] Vazquez--C

THE REASONING WHY:

First of all, OPTIMAL might not be day one. Also, even with Kepler on board, there's room to to adjust at 1B, 2B, DH, and OF corners, with virtually the same lineup. And yes, maybe I'm cheating a little bit with Julien proving he's ready, or will be very soon, and optimal, again, doesn't necessarily mean DAY ONE.

Julien pulls a "Knoblauch" and jumps from AA to be a table setter with a lot to offer, even though his 2024 version will undoubtedly be better. Buxton is just NOT the leadoff hitter envisioned when drafted. He's a dangerous power plant and RBI and RUN producer who's speed will still be exciting, bringing in doubles and triples and plenty of runs from 2B and even 1B, but he's only going to SB here and there. Kirilloff and Miranda are a perfect LH/RH duo to follow Byron. Hit, contact, power, and decent OB ability to drive in runs and keep the table set. Gallo is his "TEXAS" self again and hits .200-.220 with a .350 OB% and 32-38 HR power. So why do I have him hitting 7th? Because the "powerful" Buxton will have a bit of SO production as well. And I don't want them back to back. Gallo still has 3 very good hitters in front of him and opportunities to drive them in. But despite his .800+ career OPS, there remains a ton of swing and miss. This is the perfect spot for him to produce, lengthen the lineup, and scare the hell out of pitchers. Larnach can and should produce and climb this lineup ladder by 2024. But for now, he's less experienced than Gallo, not quite as powerful, and might be one of the most dangerous #8 hitters in all of MLB, if not THE most. And then comes the very solid bat of Vazquez...and Jeffers many days...making the 9 hole effective.

I am not going to play in the sandbox and paper napkin arena of a lineup vs LHP right now simply due to the fact that the Twins will face LH ST approximately 25% of the time, and there are so many different permutations of said lineup that it's almost impossible to select a single OPTIMAL lineup. Farmer, or even Solano, might hit #1 at DH, or more likely in the field. And both could play in various configurations. Taylor could easily figure in to an OF spot. Jeffers might catch or DH. Gallo has good splits and AK and Larnach also have the same based on some history. 

So again, with the few comments offered, leaving the 25% of games against a LHSP alone, that is my very best lineup against RHSP.

Very thorough, thank you!

I thought Buxton batting cleanup was a no-brainer, but a lot of people still dreaming of him hitting leadoff. You nail the reasoning for cleanup - he is the best power hitter we have, and it doesn't hurt that some of that SLG comes from taking an extra base. Even the analytics/simulators seem to like your best hitters at 2, 4, and 1, with OBP being the decider for batting higher

It looks like you also like Larnach over Kepler. That seems a popular opinion in this thread

[ToddlerHarmon]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The beauty of this lineup is that no one in it is completely irreplaceable.  If anyone is out, there is an actual (mostly) qualified major league player able to come in and take their place.  In addition, there are going to be capable pieces down in St. Paul able to play before we ever get to some of the guys that we threw to the sharks last year at the end of the season.  All of this is to say while I don't love injuries, the floor for this group of position players is pretty good. 

So. . .

Polanco - consistency is key

Buxton - get the man some AB's

Correa - as Correa goes, so will this lineup

Miranda - I think there could be big things in store here

(Good) Kiriloff - if healthy.  Otherwise Solano? maybe bats seventh

Gallo - we're going to smile about this signing by the end of the season

DH for the day - This will be a committee, so the lineup position will change all the time.

Vasquez - it's a good catcher spot, even when Jeffers plays.

(Bad) Kepler - If we get good Kepler, he can bat 5th.

Nobody is traded.  Nobody not on the 40 man roster.  Not the 1927 Yankees, but no black holes either.

 

 

One of the few having Miranda this high. But all the projections have him in the top 4 in WAR, so you may be right.

I agree on the high floor. Part of what I was curious about was whether anyone sees the ceiling as an actually dangerous lineup. Maybe that is less important than avoiding the wasteland of last September's lineups, or the lineups against lefties all year long.

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Polanco is not sitting on the bench so that a rookie can play right out of the gate.  It would be fantastic if Julien was so good he forced them to trade Polanco but no way that happens on opening day.  

No way in hell Lee takes Miranda's spot at 3B.  He has a total of 8 ABs at AA.  

I would prefer Larnach to Kepler but it's the same story.  There is no room for Larnach with the addition of Gallo and Taylor.  The four OFers are Buxton / Kepler / Gallo and Taylor.  Farmer / Gordon and Solano are the utility players.  Therefore, Larnach starts the season in STP.

 I'm quite certain everyone on this board understands the opening day roster is 95% set, which would make for a pretty boring game. Pretty sure the "dream" lineup as requested in the OP doesn't require one to insert Joey Gallo or Max Kepler in it, that's not a dream I much care for.

For me, it's out with the old and in with the new, and by August, I'd like to see the youth movement in full swing. 

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

 I'm quite certain everyone on this board understands the opening day roster is 95% set, which would make for a pretty boring game. Pretty sure the "dream" lineup as requested in the OP doesn't require one to insert Joey Gallo or Max Kepler in it, that's not a dream I much care for.

For me, it's out with the old and in with the new, and by August, I'd like to see the youth movement in full swing. 

I am hopeful this happens. I'd like to see Lewis Lee Julien pushing for time at Target by mid summer. I really believe this will be a big bounceback year for both Kepler and Gallo. Ripping it to right with no shifting allowed, I see Falvey being vindicated on both. I am very concerned about Kirilloff. Although much older, my wife had the exact same break, and has had the exact same recovery difficulty. Wrists are obviously crucial to a batter. Worried about this one. For what it's worth, I'd put Miranda and his sore shoulder at 1st, if Kirilloff can't go, and Farmer starts the year at 3rd, putting Larnach on the opening day roster at DH. 

[JD-TWINS]

Larnach has real potential……going to struggle to make 26 man roster since the Solano signing! Am assuming all are healthy.

My line-ups are based on RH or LH opposing pitcher since we will swing our starters big time:

v. LH pitching                    v. RH pitching

Taylor - CF                        Gordon - DH

Buxton - DH                      Buxton - CF

Correa - SS                       Correa - SS

Miranda - 1B.                     Polanco - 2B

Farmer - 3B                      Kirilof - 1B

Jeffers - C                         Vázquez - C

Gallo - LF.                         Gallo - LF

Solano - 2B.                     Miranda - 3B

Kepler - RF.                      Kepler - RF

If Kirilof & Larnach are HEALTHY, I like Larnach better than Solano, but w/o options, Solano needs to be rostered so Larnach starts in St. Paul.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

12 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The beauty of this lineup is that no one in it is completely irreplaceable.  If anyone is out, there is an actual (mostly) qualified major league player able to come in and take their place.  In addition, there are going to be capable pieces down in St. Paul able to play before we ever get to some of the guys that we threw to the sharks last year at the end of the season.  All of this is to say while I don't love injuries, the floor for this group of position players is pretty good. 

So. . .

Polanco - consistency is key

Buxton - get the man some AB's

Correa - as Correa goes, so will this lineup

Miranda - I think there could be big things in store here

(Good) Kiriloff - if healthy.  Otherwise Solano? maybe bats seventh

Gallo - we're going to smile about this signing by the end of the season

DH for the day - This will be a committee, so the lineup position will change all the time.

Vasquez - it's a good catcher spot, even when Jeffers plays.

(Bad) Kepler - If we get good Kepler, he can bat 5th.

Nobody is traded.  Nobody not on the 40 man roster.  Not the 1927 Yankees, but no black holes either.

 

 

I love your optimism. I don’t share it on Gallo, but hope you are right. I think we’ll be cursing his futile whiffs and .199 batting average, 15 home runs…. But as I said, I hope you are right.

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

 I'm quite certain everyone on this board understands the opening day roster is 95% set, which would make for a pretty boring game. Pretty sure the "dream" lineup as requested in the OP doesn't require one to insert Joey Gallo or Max Kepler in it, that's not a dream I much care for.

For me, it's out with the old and in with the new, and by August, I'd like to see the youth movement in full swing. 

Me too.  I did not like the Solano signing.  I felt like that roster spot provided the opportunity to filter in Milb players and test them at this level.  Solano likely does not offer enough upside to warrant taking that spot for the young guys.  Of course, this assumes reasonable health among position players but we are not going anywhere if we have the same level of injuries as last year.