How Following the Mauer Usage Model Could Produce an MVP Season for Buxton

[Nick Nelson]

Rocco Baldelli and the Twins face a challenge in developing a usage model for Byron Buxton that maximizes his impact while also minimizing wear and tear on a body that's been ravaged throughout his career. 

The last MVP season from a Twins player might offer a blueprint to follow.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Winning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning.

Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.)

Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot. 

 

The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year?

Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body.

For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player.

Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model
One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.)

In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP. 

 

Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this:

• Catcher: 70%
• DH: 15%
• Off Days: 15%

The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week.

The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons:

1. Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field. 
2. In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury.

 

While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me.

How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage?
When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference.

Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question."

"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."

Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point.

At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality.

"What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler  ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season."

You don't say?

 

Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup."

While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season. 

As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory.

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[ValleySpringsFan]

Very thoughtful and sensible plan, thank you. I hope Twins management is thinking along these lines, too. Much more effective for Buxton's mental approach (I think) to start on this kind of plan from Game 1, instead of "reacting to whatever he needs." 

[mnfireman]

For the days he was actually able to play, May 1 until the the end of the season, it was more like 75% starts @ C (104/140), 20% starts at DH (28/140)and 5% days off (8/140, but he pinch hit on 5 of his 8 off days). Mauer also exited early in 6 games due to the game being a blow-out.

The 70/15/15 formula would work out to 113/24/24 (I know that's only 161), and Mauer missed the first 22 games of that season, so he actually only had 3 complete days off once activated. But I guess we would all be happy with about 140  games out of Buxton, so maybe this can work.

[Vanimal46]

Don’t really care what the model or method is. Just find a way for him to play over 100 games this season. 

[RaoulDuke]

I want to see him play in CF as much as possible to maximize his value but I also want the focus to be him playing CF come the playoffs.  That is going to take plenty of days at DH but that is much more palatable now that Taylor is there to keep a great glove on the field.

[mrtwinsfan]

Who is BUXTON ??I have been checking every games box score in spring training, , Will we ever really hear the truth?  Would like to see him in spring first.   at what point are the Twins over coddling ??

[h2oface]

And Mahle can't break his wrist again with his pinpoint control since he is on the same team, now.

[old nurse]

There is season after season of data that would suggest Buxton will get hurt regardless of management styles. They might as well play him until he breaks

[miracleb]

I think Buxton had some kind of hip injury (from running?) but otherwise a bulk of his time missed was due to hitting the wall or getting hit by a pitch.  I think he is different from Mauer (or any catcher for that matter.)

[jmlease1]

I think after the disaster that was the "Randy Ratio", any MN coach/manager is going to avoid putting hard numbers on something like this. But what Nick's outlined here is probably close to the ideal situation for the Twins. Will it actually keep Buxton healthy? No one knows.

[Riverbrian]

51 minutes ago, old nurse said:

There is season after season of data that would suggest Buxton will get hurt regardless of management styles. They might as well play him until he breaks

A friend of mine bought a 57 Chevy. Getting one was a long time coming big moment for him. He was worried about something happening to it so he would only drive it around early in the mornings on the weekend when there was less traffic, he drove very slowly and carefully, avoiding potholes or anything that looked like it could hurt his Chevy. He promptly washed and cleaned the car inside and out after every trip.  

After 2 months of being very careful in this fashion. He was rear ended at a stop light one beautiful July Sunday Morning. 

Of course I don't have the information that the Twins front office have but there is very little doubt that -- Operation Keep Buxton on the field by occasionally not putting him on the field -- did not work! (Official Name of the Plan) 

We got the scheduled extended rest plus the lengthy D.L. stint. 

Let's not do both.    

 

 

[ziggy]

I know this site does not talk about betting but I got 33 to 1 odds on Buxton winning the MVP in Las Vegas last month. He has the talent, Correa hitting next to him and competing with him at the team level, and the motivation to do it. Besides, the Minnesota sports teams are due........

[SoDakTwinsFan]

Byron Buxton hit .224 last season.  The only time he hit above .275 was in 2021 when he played in 61 games.  The closest he has ever been to MVP was when he came in 16th in 2020.  I don't think MVP will be coming to the Buxton residence anytime soon.

[tony&rodney]

It is difficult to anticipate injuries and Buxton seems to have had more than his share of bad luck. If he can avoid HBP, fences, and horrible slides there is a good chance he can actually remain healthy. I agree with the premise of this post. The Twins will need to have open communication with Byron and get him some days off. Having Taylor to fill center field is excellent too. Still, I'm hoping that Buck can start 125 games on the grass.

[Trov]

The problem with this model is Buck generally does not get hurt from fielding, but from hitting and running bases.  Yes, he has had a few injuries from fielding, but over the years most of his injuries come from hitting and running.  Look at last year, the knee came from the slide at second, DH would not stop that, only sitting, but if he is sitting he is not helping.  Then later in year he hurt his hip again.  

The year prior he missed most of his time with hip issue after running bases.  He has missed time from being hit by pitches, foul balls of foot, slides, and just running bases.  No amount of DH will help that. 

[TopGunn#22]

I have always been of the mind to just play Buxton and not handle him like fine China and only take him out for holidays and other special occasions.  However, I remember how I felt about Joe Mauer and how important his bat was to the Twins.  To me, it seemed like had the Twins moved him out from catcher and began the 1B or RF transition sooner, they might have gotten more out of him and for a longer time period.  I understand those who don't think a Mauer/Buxton comparison is valid, but the way Nick has laid this out I can see that I was treating them differently but now am aware of how similar their situations are.  The defense both provided is a key comparison and while Redmond was never the defensive equal of Mauer he had some good seasons with the bat.  Just having Taylor allows for very little defensive drop off.  In the end, the primary goal is for Buxton to play, because when he does he will have a very positive impact.  With the new rules I would very much like to see Buxton be more aggressive in stealing.  Yes, that could put him at risk, but at some time you just have to play the game.  I think Riverbrian's note says it all.  At least for me and wanting to get ALL of what Buxton can do.  He could/should be a guy who could swipe 40 bases

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

A friend of mine bought a 57 Chevy. Getting one was a long time coming big moment for him. He was worried about something happening to it so he would only drive it around early in the mornings on the weekend when there was less traffic, he drove very slowly and carefully, avoiding potholes or anything that looked like it could hurt his Chevy. He promptly washed and cleaned the car inside and out after every trip.  

After 2 months of being very careful in this fashion. He was rear ended at a stop light one beautiful July Sunday Morning. 

Of course I don't have the information that the Twins front office have but there is very little doubt that -- Operation Keep Buxton on the field by occasionally not putting him on the field -- did not work! (Official Name of the Plan) 

We got the scheduled extended rest plus the lengthy D.L. stint. 

Let's not do both.    

 

 

I like your analogy. 

[Craig Arko]

I’d be happy (and I know it) with this plan, MVP or not.

[danielp19653]

There is absolutely no way he can handle 70% of games in the outfield. I think  much more reasonable amount for him would be closer to 50-30-20. We all want to see the guy play all season but we have a hard enough time getting him to play half the season let alone 70% of the season in the most physically demanding position on the field. We have 4 players who can play center on the roster, while Buxton is the best at it there's no way his body is going to hold up for more than half the season out there. He has the bat on this team to be the DH, with Arraez gone and 30% of the DH starts up for grabs give them to Buxton. Who cares if he doesn't love being a DH, he also doesn't love getting his knee drained daily and IL stints either.

[Jeff D.]

Sad to think we have to pay that much and have a plan built for a part time player. Find a team, other than the Twins whom he wishes to play for and go for it. 

GO TWINS! Twins Geezer............out!

[gman]

He hasn't broken don't from lack of rest but from sudden and violent stops. Slamming into a wall, stopping a baseball with his hands or skidding into a base. Resting doesn't prevent that.

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

There is absolutely no way he can handle 70% of games in the outfield. I think  much more reasonable amount for him would be closer to 50-30-20. We all want to see the guy play all season but we have a hard enough time getting him to play half the season let alone 70% of the season in the most physically demanding position on the field. We have 4 players who can play center on the roster, while Buxton is the best at it there's no way his body is going to hold up for more than half the season out there. He has the bat on this team to be the DH, with Arraez gone and 30% of the DH starts up for grabs give them to Buxton. Who cares if he doesn't love being a DH, he also doesn't love getting his knee drained daily and IL stints either.

Exactly, 80 games in CF v. RH pitching (Taylor starts 40 games v. LH pitching) - 50 games at DH - 32 games sitting. 50% - 30% - 20%……80% of the games with him hitting is a way better % than his entire career! He played 140 games one season…..92 games is his 2nd highest total after 7 seasons.

Agreed on his attitude about DHing……never going to get 500 AB’s plus playing CF and getting his knee drained every 3 weeks.

Gordon picks up the other 40 starts in CF v. RH pitching.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

A friend of mine bought a 57 Chevy. Getting one was a long time coming big moment for him. He was worried about something happening to it so he would only drive it around early in the mornings on the weekend when there was less traffic, he drove very slowly and carefully, avoiding potholes or anything that looked like it could hurt his Chevy. He promptly washed and cleaned the car inside and out after every trip.  

After 2 months of being very careful in this fashion. He was rear ended at a stop light one beautiful July Sunday Morning. 

Of course I don't have the information that the Twins front office have but there is very little doubt that -- Operation Keep Buxton on the field by occasionally not putting him on the field -- did not work! (Official Name of the Plan) 

We got the scheduled extended rest plus the lengthy D.L. stint. 

Let's not do both.

I like your analogy, but why push him until he breaks.  Yes, the '57 Chevy did get its due (by chance) even though it was babied, but had your friend pushed it to the limit, it would have definitely blown an engine, clutch, rear-end, etc. long before being rear-ended and with much higher odds of failure than it had.

I also do not prefer load management type of strategy (especially in basketball these days) because I feel it screws the fans who bought tickets earlier expecting to see a star player.  That said, I do like the ratio presented by Nick to keep Buck fresh, healthy and playing for the whole year.  Like he said, it worked for Mauer why not try it with Buck.

[Schmoeman5]

27 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I like your analogy, but why push him until he breaks.  Yes, the '57 Chevy did get its due (by chance) even though it was babied, but had your friend pushed it to the limit, it would have definitely blown an engine, clutch, rear-end, etc. long before being rear-ended and with much higher odds of failure than it had.

I also do not prefer load management type of strategy (especially in basketball these days) because I feel it screws the fans who bought tickets earlier expecting to see a star player.  That said, I do like the ratio presented by Nick to keep Buck fresh, healthy and playing for the whole year.  Like he said, it worked for Mauer why not try it with Buck.

Load management? Is this Twins Daily or NBA Today?

[Swing Batter-Batter]

12 hours ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Who is BUXTON ??I have been checking every games box score in spring training, , Will we ever really hear the truth?  Would like to see him in spring first.   at what point are the Twins over coddling ??

I was thinking something similar.  Of course, I could have missed it but, has he played yet this spring? Has he had even one at bat?

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I like your analogy, but why push him until he breaks.  Yes, the '57 Chevy did get its due (by chance) even though it was babied, but had your friend pushed it to the limit, it would have definitely blown an engine, clutch, rear-end, etc. long before being rear-ended and with much higher odds of failure than it had.

I also do not prefer load management type of strategy (especially in basketball these days) because I feel it screws the fans who bought tickets earlier expecting to see a star player.  That said, I do like the ratio presented by Nick to keep Buck fresh, healthy and playing for the whole year.  Like he said, it worked for Mauer why not try it with Buck.

I was sleeping during med school so I am in no way qualified to make these type of decisions. 

However... I can't help but consider the possibility that a trip to the DL in April or May last year may have been another option for load management with better results in the end. . Keep in mind that I haven't seen his medicals nor would I know what they mean if I did. 

The result of the load management efforts to keep him off the DL last season didn't work because he was placed on the DL for an extended period of time despite efforts to avoid that. 

So we got the extended DL time that they were trying to avoid plus the preventative days off that he could have played and we also (I assume) got a lesser version of Buxton due to not being 100% when he did play.

It seems that we maximized his time off and minimized his performance this way.  

I can't help but wonder if he shouldn't have been DL'd back in May instead. Maybe got him back closer to 100% after X many days of consecutive rest and rehab required on the DL. 

I don't know... It just seems that last year's plan didn't work.

If healthy play him... when not... DL him.  

 

[jkcarew]

We're dreaming to think that Buxton is going to appear in 85% of Twins games. Someone needs to make a good argument why this year would be the year before I can move to such an assumption.

But, ok, I'll play along....

The 15% he sits need to be against right-handed starters only (if he's 'healthy' there should be zero exceptions here.)

The 15% that he's the DH need to be against left-handed starters (rare exceptions)...not only because he isn't great against righties...but because the guy who is most likely to enter the lineup because of his move to DH is Taylor...of whom, you want to maximize his AB's against lefties.

In the games he's sitting, HE AND ROCKO, need to be willing to pinch-hit him late...particularly against lefties...if/when the situation screams for it and a W is to be had.

If these things came to fruition in 2023 there's no doubt it would be a good outcome for the Twins.  Much better than my current assumption of Buxton's role in 2023. 

[Doctor Gast]

"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."

I like Baldelli answer. I don't like any preset answer. You have to play it by ear & plan for the maximium usage.

Practically all of Gallo's DRS was gained at the corner OF spot not CF so he should be excluded from this list. Put Gordon there instead. 

[mrtwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

I was thinking something similar.  Of course, I could have missed it but, has he played yet this spring? Has he had even one at bat?

nope

[joefish]

When would it be better for the team to play your injured starter over your back up player?

If your back up guy is good, never.  I'd like us to be that deep.