Finding a No. 1 Starter: A Game of Musical Chairs

[Hans Birkeland]

1 hour ago, Crackedfungo said:

The 'sign or trade for an Ace' narrative is REALLY tired.  Robbie Ray was proposed (fail), the Ryu/Toronto was another (fail), Bumgarner (fail), DeGrom (fail 2022 and TBD).  In the past, it was Darvish (fail for several years), and there have been others.  In short, you  need to grow your own (draft) or be very lucky in terms of foresight in a simple trade.

You said it, you gotta have a little luck. Would you say the last ace pitcher the Twins drafted and developed was Radke, Erickson or Viola?

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Robbie Ray could be one of worst FA signings ever - he may be their 5th starter……….Rodon signed for $27/yr……Tallion signed for $17/yr…….Wacha can get $24-$30 over 4 years…….Bassitt signed for 3 yrs at $21M/yr.

It’s $ and years weighed together.

I think we extend Burnes an extra $6 million over his potential arbitration high in ‘24 as a good faith move. Then $30M/yr for 3 additional years. That’s a good offer relative to any signings of ‘22-‘23.

You forgot the deGrom contract. That is the contract that is closest to a player of Burnes talent. Also look at the contracts signed by top players historically to avoid arbitration and you will find some upper 20 million contracts for the last year.

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Boy, If Milwaukee only wants Ober Wallner and Martin I am all in. I would imagine Lewis, Lee and Rodriguez would need to be involved to realistically get it done.

Likely 2 out of the three if you look at when Sale and Grienke were traded. It would still take another prospect. Just maybe what is missing in the proposals is a star outfielder like Kepler

[TwinsDr2021]

18 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

Burnes would be a good pick-up! Would anchor the Staff.

He has ‘24 left under control. Extend him 2 years right away for around $30M/yr……extend Lopez this year, if he’s solid, for 2 more years. Extend Mahle if he throws well for 3 years.

Burnes - $30M ……Mahle - $21M……Lopez - $20M………Varland & Paddack & Headrick & SWR & etc. from the Farm. We’d be set, on paper, through ‘26!

Already spending $16M between Mahle & Lopez. We get back $21 M between Gray & Maeda leaving………Taylor, Kepler, Polanco, Solano, & Gallo will probably all be gone after ‘23 getting us back $36M……..that’s $73M to cover the 3 pitchers above!

Trade Ober - Walner - Martin at the Break or shortly after, for Burnes.

I see little to no chance he accepts a 2 year extension. He will end 24 having just recently turned 30, why would he take a two year extension, when some team will give 5,6,or possibly 7 years? IMO if you want to buy out his first two years of FA if would have to be for much more than 60 million, something closer to 80 million.

Why in the world would the Brewers take a pitcher just a year younger than Burnes who (predictions so far) isn't good enough to make the majors to start this year and has a long history of injuries? and two other prospects on the wrong side of 24?

If you want to make a legit trade, it starts with Ryan and includes one of the Twins SS prospects (Lee/Lewis) and maybe another flyer type prospect. I would still do it, but to think the Brewers or any other team is going to give away a top tier pitcher with 2 years of control for scraps isn't happening.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Robbie Ray could be one of worst FA signings ever - he may be their 5th starter……….

Robbie Ray pitched 189 inning last year (15th best in the league),  had 212 K's (7th), 18 quality starts (tied for 18th in league), and made 32 starts (tied for 2nd).

Is that what a 5th starter is? or one of the worst FA signings ever?

Just an FYI - Rodon signed a 162 million, sure it is for ONLY 27 a year, but the value is 100 million more.

[chpettit19]

15 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

………back to Burnes & $/contract details……if we could get him this summer at the deadline, offer him over arbitration $ for ‘24, around $24M & then offer $30M for 3 additional years. I can’t believe he would risk pitching all of ‘24 for arbitration $ of around $18M without any compensation guarantee past ‘24 & not take the additional $96M we would be offering for 3 more years and a signature by end of calendar ‘23.

Who would we trade?

I think a starter with control - Ober…….an OF prospect - Walner…….an IF prospect - Martin…….just saw Martin has been shutdown with a UCL elbow injury. Bummer!

Who else is worth moving to get Brewer’s attention?

The Luis Castillo trade, and extension, are probably the best comps. And Burnes is better, and younger, so he'd actually demand a little more. 

The Reds got Marte (top 15 global prospect at the time), and Arroyo (2nd round pick in 2021) as major position player prospects. They got Levi Stoudt (top 5 system prospect), and Andrew Moore as pitching prospects. That's 3 top 5 system prospects, 2 of which are top 50 global prospects right now. A pitcher 1 year younger, and nowhere near as good, as Burnes with massive injury concerns (Ober), a 25 year old DH with massive contact and K concerns (Wallner), and a 23 year old utility player prospect with tanking value (Martin) isn't enough to even get the Brewers to call you back. In fact they probably don't even answer your next 15 phone calls if that's your starting offer. Any offer that didn't include Lee or Lewis would get an immediate hang-up. And, honestly, it'd probably take both Lee and Lewis to get anything done. The Twins likely don't have the prospect capital to pull a trade for Burnes unless you're including both Lee and Lewis, or ERod comes out hot and then it's likely 2 of those 3 plus 2 more prospects, 1 of which being top 10 in the system, required.

Castillo signed a 5 year, $108 million extension with Seattle after the trade. That's the floor for Burnes. Again, he's younger and better, so he'd likely demand even more than that. Especially knowing he went to arbitration in an attempt to up the amount of money he was getting, and the amount players around the league make. He's going to demand big money, and likely years.

If you're talking just a short 2 or 3 year deal the comp is Verlander/Scherzer. And they got $86 million for 2 years (Verlander) and $130 million for 3 years (Scherzer).

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/5/2023 at 3:54 PM, mikelink45 said:

Wow - the ACE card has come up again.  No there are not 24 Aces out there if we go by the definitions that seem to float around that this is the guy you want to start and end a WS.  I will take 5 really good pitchers, and an outstanding BP.  The age of 100 MPH means that arms disintegrate - not worth a lot of prospects.  

We have enough articles about how good this SP depth is.  Let's test it. 

If we had a proven - solid Pen, I could care less about signing an ACE. We do have a solid starting Staff now w/o an “ace” & if we had 5 good/reliable relievers for playoffs I’d be good.

Jax - Duran - Thielbar …….. Moran ………we now have 4 guys in our Pen we can rely on but the others are all suspect regarding consistency or health. I think, for ‘23, we should drop minor league starters into Pen roles with Big Club. 

We can drop one of the starters to relief in play-offs.

 

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, old nurse said:

You forgot the deGrom contract. That is the contract that is closest to a player of Burnes talent. Also look at the contracts signed by top players historically to avoid arbitration and you will find some upper 20 million contracts for the last year.

He’s at $14.5 this year I believe and was pissed because the club wouldn’t pay another $300K - they built an argument against his recent year’s performance……..gotta think his arbitration number is no more than $20M in ‘24. Whatever, pay him something a bit higher than the expectation to help the relationship.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Robbie Ray pitched 189 inning last year (15th best in the league),  had 212 K's (7th), 18 quality starts (tied for 18th in league), and made 32 starts (tied for 2nd).

Is that what a 5th starter is? or one of the worst FA signings ever?

Just an FYI - Rodon signed a 162 million, sure it is for ONLY 27 a year, but the value is 100 million more.

Ray gets $23M/year over life of contract……,he pitched a fair amount of innings and stayed healthy……..give ya that & there is value in that!………….12-12 with a 3.71 ERA is not an ACE.

With the addition of Castillo at the break last year, it may have dropped Ray to being Seattle’s 5th best starter. Seriously.

[old nurse]

22 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s at $14.5 this year I believe and was pissed because the club wouldn’t pay another $300K - they built an argument against his recent year’s performance……..gotta think his arbitration number is no more than $20M in ‘24. Whatever, pay him something a bit higher than the expectation to help the relationship.

If you are going to blow up the top of your minor league for one player there has to be an extension. If you think that anything less than 2 of the top 3 prospects plus a near major league ready starter  is going to get the deal done, go do research into trades of similar players. If you think he is going to sign for Robbie Ray money, ask yourself is Burnes and Ray equall. Don’t be comparing contracts unless you are looking at similar pitchers.

[Major League Ready]

On 3/5/2023 at 5:31 PM, JD-TWINS said:

Where do you get 5 years? I don’t keep detailed track of the Free Agent signings but I don’t recall many guys signing for more than 3 years as pitchers. He’s making $14 this year I think & one more year of control. If we could get him by August 1 and bump him to $22 (we’ll above arbitration) in ‘24 & give him $30 in ‘25 & ‘26 it seems pretty fair to him! If he needs 5 years & that’s the market - that’s what we need to do for an Ace. Maybe it’s $26M/yr for 5 years……we get a discount on ‘24 & actually have him for 6 years.

Risky but an Ace. Gotta act if we truly want an Ace.

Burnes has a zips projection of 5.4 WAR.  Robbie rays is 1.7.  He is not even close to a comp.  Carlos Rodon is not as good either and he got 6/162.  Burnes we be the same age when he enters free agency.  He is a better and more reliable than Rodon.  Burnes probably gets 6-7 years and at least $200M.  

Also, where trades are concerned, Alcantara, Fried, and Cease were acquired as prospects.  That's an entirely different premise than trading for an established ace.  For that matter,  Gallen was acquired as a prospect and then traded again with a total of 36 major league innings.  In reality, there are a total of 2 SPs that are ace level that were acquired as established SPs.

[Nine of twelve]

There is probably only one situation, maybe two, in which it matters which of a team's starting pitchers is considered to be its best starter. That situation is the first game of a postseason series. The possible second one is opening day, but since that is just one of 162 regular season games it's really not that important.

To me it's silly to fret about having "an ace", or "a number 1", whatever the definition of that is. Just find your five best starters and put them in the rotation. If there is an opportunity to add a pitcher who is better than at least one of those five then do so if the price is acceptable.

[weitz41]

I'd rather hold onto our trade chips until Aug 1st. We did finish 14 games back last season.

Also maybe, Ryan or Lopez take the next step this season. It won't cost us anything (more) to find out.

[tony&rodney]

On 3/5/2023 at 7:40 PM, Hans Birkeland said:

That's three MLB players and two young pitchers with upside and decent prospect pedigree. Maybe not the sexiest collection of players but still extremely valuable.

You can choose which guys you want for 2023 for yourself.

The Twins decided that Maeda, Gray, and Mahle fit an MLB roster better than Graterol, Petty, Steer, Hajjar, and E-S.

My guess is that the Twins pitchers named above provide more value to their team this year than those names traded by the Twins provide for their new MLB teams. As far as the future goes, there is zero guarantee that any of the prospects traded would have fit in ahead of the other Twins prospects. I really liked the pick of Chase Petty and enjoyed what I saw of the others as well.  But even if I might have wanted Montas (oops) or Castillo instead, the Twins have a pretty good rotation heading into this season. 

Trades remain a solid way to improve a roster.

 

[Hans Birkeland]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You can choose which guys you want for 2023 for yourself.

The Twins decided that Maeda, Gray, and Mahle fit an MLB roster better than Graterol, Petty, Steer, Hajjar, and E-S.

My guess is that the Twins pitchers named above provide more value to their team this year than those names traded by the Twins provide for their new MLB teams. As far as the future goes, there is zero guarantee that any of the prospects traded would have fit in ahead of the other Twins prospects. I really liked the pick of Chase Petty and enjoyed what I saw of the others as well.  But even if I might have wanted Montas (oops) or Castillo instead, the Twins have a pretty good rotation heading into this season. 

Trades remain a solid way to improve a roster.

 

The team control is what makes them more valuable but you're right,  there is more present day value with Maeda Mahle an Gray. Next year is a different story but hopefully Paddack recovers well and Ober can get established.